Steve_Z

What I want from Netflix on Wednesday

A 40 percent drawdown prices in a lot of bad news, so the bar for Wednesday is lower than it looks. Three things I am watching: ad tier revenue actually becoming material, engagement holding up against the new entrants, and whether price increases are sticking without churn. Content spend discipline matters too, since the street has stopped rewarding growth at any cost. If management confirms the ad business is inflecting, the valuation reset looks like an opportunity rather than a trend. If it is another quarter of promises, the stock stays in the penalty box. Watching, not buying, until the numbers land.

> Anthropic has committed 518 billion to compute. Tesla just lined up 30 billion in credit facilities. Nvidia authorised 235 billion of buybacks.

> Apple announced nothing this week.

> That is either capital discipline or absence, and the market has stopped giving it the benefit of the doubt. AAPL closed 329.40, down 2.7 percent on Tuesday.

Note: holding, no adds. Would start adding again if capex guidance actually shows up at the next earnings call.

> Managed agents means long running tasks and stateful sessions, which is metered compute rather than seat licences.

> OpenAI does not own data centres. Whoever hosts those sessions collects the bill.

> ORCL closed 132.60 on Monday, down 3.3 percent, second worst of the group, and it sits on the collecting side of that trade.

Note: bought back a third of what I sold in August. Adding again only if it holds 130 through the keynote.

Apple got dragged along with the big tech pullback again with nothing of its own going on. i stopped trading around these days, the position is 6% of my portfolio and it earns that on product cycles not on a Wednesday

apple beat on revenue and eps and still dropped 7.35% to 308.91, because cook called memory prices a 100 year flood and guided margins to 47-48%. i bought the beat and got handed the guidance. averaged down in the 300s anyway, the memory squeeze ends before the iphone cycle does 🥲

apple beat on both lines and still faded about 4% because services came in at 30.74b against 31.22b and the guide was 9 to 11 percent. the line nobody is pricing yet is management saying memory costs are pushing mac and ipad prices higher. holding all 60 shares, this is a two quarter margin story not a broken business

AAPL tapped a fresh intraday high on friday and it barely made any noise. china approving Apple Intelligence with Alibaba's Qwen unlocks the one market that was holding the AI story back. boring compounder doing boring compounder things 😎

$Micron Tech(MU.US) down to 853, and the reason is almost funny: the market's scared because TSMC is spending MORE to meet demand. that's the bull case, not the bear case. you don't raise capex 8 billion into a glut. i added a small tranche into this dip, cost basis 1050. the CXMT IPO is a 2027-2028 supply question, not a today problem. HBM shortage runs through 2027.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) dumped around 8% back near 898, giving back a chunk of the monster run. but it's still up ~244% YTD and the drop was profit-taking in a crowded trade, not a demand miss. i held my core through the +27% Tuesday and this dump, cost basis 1050. not chasing, not panic-selling. TSMC this afternoon tells us if this was froth or a real crack. holding into it.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) +5.12% back near 965, and the SK Hynix ADR ripped 27% in a single session the day after crashing 15%. if you sold Monday's panic you're chasing green today, classic retail mistake. i held my core through both days, cost basis 1050. cool CPI collapsing hike odds is the cherry on top. adding on the next pullback, not this rip.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) back under 930 after SK Hynix had its worst day ever. but the trigger was a margin miss (HBM contracts cap upside), not a demand miss. those are completely different problems. i held my core through the last bear-market scare, cost basis 1050, and i'm not selling into this one. not adding until after tonight's CPI though, no heroics.

SK Hynix just did the biggest foreign IPO in US history, opened +14%, and the chairman straight up said demand is "enormous." two weeks ago everyone called a top on memory lol. i hold $Micron Tech(MU.US) as my core, not chasing the IPO frenzy but this debut validates the whole thesis. memory undersupplied till 2030 is the line that matters.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) back near 990 after the bear-market scare, and chips ripped 5% the same week the US kept bombing Iran. the dip was a gift and the panic sellers are chasing it green now. i held my core through the whole thing, cost basis 1050, adding on the next pullback not this rip. SK Hynix listing today only confirms the demand.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) closed 948 today, actually stabilised after the bear-market week. and the SK Hynix IPO is 7x oversubscribed at $28B. institutions are lining up for memory exposure right as retail panic-sold it. i'm underwater on my adds and holding, not adding into the Friday listing though, events cut both ways. patient.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) closed 938 today, officially in a bear market down 20%+ from the highs, and it happened the same week Samsung printed a record profit. that mismatch is the whole trade. i'm underwater on my adds and not adding more until the selling stops. the Anthropic deal chatter is interesting but single-source, not betting on it. patient here.

Samsung's $Micron Tech(MU.US) position and not touching it. the supply glut fear runs into a $58B counter-argument and loses.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) reopens today after the long weekend, still sitting on that -5.5% break of $1000 from Wednesday. i added a starter under 1000 and the Hiroshima HBM groundbreaking friday only strengthens the thesis. supply glut fear vs a $50B Q4 guide, i know which one i believe. adding more only under 900, not chasing the reopen gap.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) broke $1000 today, closed 975 down 5.5%. i added a starter right here. everyone screaming supply glut but the same company just guided $50B for Q4, that is not a glut number. Burry shorting it just tells me short interest is stacking for a squeeze. wrong if capex rolls over, adding more only under 900.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) just printed a record Q3 north of 40B and the stock is down 8% on a DRAM price fixing suit. that mismatch is the whole trade for me. the lawsuit is about pricing being too strong, not demand being weak. HBM is still sold out well into 2026. added a little into the dip, cost basis now around 1120.

$Apple(AAPL.US) might raise device prices because memory got so expensive, Tim Cook basically said the chip shortage is reaching into our pockets now. and the Vision Pro lead jumping to OpenAI doesn't help the vibes. holding but honestly not excited about Apple this year

so the iPhone 18 Pro might cost 270 more because AI data centres ate all the RAM. cant wait to explain to my wife why the phone got pricier and slower to arrive

Apple barely moved again, the most boring stock in my portfolio and i mean that as a compliment. it just compounds quietly in the background

even on a record day for the market i am not chasing the mega caps up here. holding my MSFT core, not adding at 400 🫡

$Western Digital(WDC.US) ripped 16% to record territory, roughly tripled this year. the NAND shortage is real and WD is a pure way to play it 🔥