holding both CIEN and COHR here, no interest in picking the one winner out of four names. if the AI-networking shift Deutsche Bank is talking about is real it should show up broadly, not just in whoever i guessed right
Crab clps
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held this through the last big drawdown a few years back and it eventually worked out. not saying it repeats but I'm not panic selling into a 17% gap down
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been in and out of this name for two years waiting for a real catalyst. this might finally be it but I've said that before
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biggest single day move in months and I still don't have a position here. watching from the sidelines, this space is crowded
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still down on this since the raise at 95. defect density improving is nice but doesn't pay down the dilution, and "external customer interest" has been the story for two years now
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stock popping on a model release is always the part I trust least. wait for it to actually show up in ad targeting or Reels engagement numbers before believing it's worth anything
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$14B barely moves the needle on a $5.5T company honestly, more interesting to me as a signal of where they want to be positioned than as a number worth reacting to
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took some profit into today's pop, been holding since around 140 so no complaints, just don't love adding after a 16% single day move
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still holding MSTR through this, honestly more interested in what happens to the stock if index funds are forced to sell than in who's right about the "pretext" framing
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still holding through this one, been averaging down since the low 20s. dilution stings short term but if the foundry turnaround actually happens this is cheap capital
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been in DELL since around 140, added a bit more after today's print. not touching the margin debate, backlog at 95bn is the number I actually care about
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been holding MU since the low 100s and honestly just letting it ride through this, not adding more up here. the HBM story is real but so was the last memory cycle right before it wasn't
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Saw Gene Munster's tribute post about Cook this morning, kind of surprised how much weight that carried given he's usually pretty numbers focused. Doesn't change my position either way, just an interesting read on how the tenure is being remembered on day one of the transition.
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Sat through the Nvidia drop and the Marvell drop this same week just from holding adjacent chip names. Not touching AVGO specifically before tomorrow, valuation already prices in a clean beat and I don't love those odds after watching the last two.
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Every Apple event for the last few years has been "will this be the one" and it never really is. Foldable might be genuinely new hardware but I have learned not to expect a stock-moving keynote from this company anymore. Holding through it regardless, not selling into hype or buying into hype.
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Employees first, then public "later" is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Feels like the same pattern as every other Tesla timeline, technically on schedule but the part that matters slips. Not selling my shares over it, just not expecting much from the actual event itself.
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consensus is 2.71b revenue and 0.93 non gaap eps, which is basically the guide marvell gave themselves, so the beat is not really the question. they have cleared the non gaap line in 7 of the last 8 quarters. options are pricing anywhere from 10 to 14 percent tonight depending which quote you pull, and the last four earnings days averaged about 12. paying that kind of premium for a company that beats by a penny every single time is the actual trade here, not the print
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Meta down 4% on trial headlines feels like a buying opportunity to me honestly, this stuff drags on for years and the stock usually shrugs it off eventually. Not adding yet though, want to see how the market reacts once Zuckerberg actually testifies.
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Intel announcing new chips at Hot Chips is not new, they do this every year. What would actually move the stock is real foundry customers, not roadmap slides. SK Hynix "evaluating" packaging is a start but I've heard Intel Foundry promises before and watched them slip. Not touching INTC until I see an actual signed customer, not a maybe.
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Bought MU around 780 back in May before this whole run. Watched it touch 1200 and did not sell a single share, which I regret a little now that it is back near 910. My rule going in was simple, trim a third if it doubles from my cost and hold the rest. It already doubled and I did not trim. Not adding more here either. If it breaks 850 I will reconsider, otherwise just sitting on it.
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565 held up better than i expected honestly.
550 was my line and it didn't even get tested. for a headline with the word trillion in it, that is a pretty weak sell-off 🤔
if it closes above 580 this week i'll put back what i trimmed in July. under 550 and i'll admit i read this one wrong.
not touching it today either way.
Meta's AI Momentum Meets Its Capex Bill
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msft ran 8% off the print and another 5% monday and my kopi uncle still tells me microsoft is a boring old software company. skill issue (his)
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microsoft added roughly 450 billion of market value in one session, the biggest single day gain any stock has ever posted, and azure accelerated to 43%. i sold half of mine two weeks ago to rotate into memory names 🫠 congratulations to me
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the version i actually want: i wake up, overnight summary is already waiting, my positions, what moved, what it means. i have a vague idea: "i want more AI infrastructure exposure without just buying more Nvidia", and i say it out loud. instead of opening a screener, reading 10 tickers, cross-referencing earnings calendars and analyst notes across four tabs, something just surfaces three options with a one-paragraph case for each. i pick one, it builds the order, i confirm. the whole thing takes two minutes instead of forty. the bottleneck in investing was never information, there's too much of it. it's synthesis. connecting what's happening in the world to my specific portfolio, in real time, without me having to be the glue between every page.