LazyCat

This is the result of the post trade review of my $Broadcom(AVGO.US) trade done with the AI companion:

Entry: 368.50

Exit: 370.02

Holding Period: ~21 hours

Return: 1.52/share (+0.41%)

Overall Assessment: Good Trade (7.5/10) 🥉

👉 Your Approach (Conservative)

- Buy into earnings setup

- Sell before announcement

- Take whatever gain the market offers

- Avoid binary risk

This is essentially an earnings run-up trade.

The trade successfully generated a profit while avoiding a major binary event risk. Broadcom was scheduled to release earnings after market closed on 2 Sep 2026, and options markets were reportedly pricing a large post-earnings more of roughly +/-8%, reflecting significant uncertainty.

👍 What You Did Right

- Captured a short-term gain with limited exposure

- Avoided earnings, guidance and overnight gap risk

- Preserved capital rather than gambling on an uncertain catalyst

- Followed a professional risk-management approach by taking a confirmed profit before a high-volatility event.

🏢 Market Positions at the Time

- Institutions appeared cautiously bullish but wary of elevated AI expectations

- Retail sentiments was generally constructive towards AI semiconductor names

- Options traders were positioned for a large move but had little conviction on direction.

⭐ Bottom Line (Key Takeaway)

👏 This was a disciplined and defensible short-term trade. You captured a positive return while avoiding a highly uncertain earnings announcement. The main trade-off was opportunity cost: you secured a smaller but certain gain instead of accepting the risk of a much larger post-earnings move in either direction. From a trading and risk-management perspective, the decision was sound.

⚠️ However from a strategic perspective (position trade), if Broadcom would beat expectations and reinforce the AI growth story, then you exited before the thesis could fully play out. In that sense, the trade captured the setup but not the catalyst.

This is a short trade for $Dell Tech(DELL.US). Got in just before it's earnings in anticipation of a positive move and exited today, locking in a >10% profit which is quite alright for me.

Although there may be further upside, I just followed the plan to exit around 500.

Takeaway is to stick with plan and not be emotional.

During yesterday's session on September 1, 2026, $Dell Tech(DELL.US) saw sharp downside volatility, declining 6.80% to close at $425.00. The stock opened at $455.69, reached a peak of $461.35, and hit an intraday low of $422.01 on heavy volume. During the session, I keyed an order at $428.25 (which got filled), believing in a positive earnings outcome.

This regular-session selling was likely driven by macro technology risk-off sentiment and position trimming ahead of Dell’s earning call. Spiking Treasury yields and supply chain concerns also added broader pressure to growth/tech hardware names.

However, the regular session painted an incomplete picture. After the closing bell, Dell delivered a blowout earnings release. Driven by surging demand for AI-optimized servers, revenue reached a record $47.0 billion (up 58% year-over-year) with adjusted EPS of $7.04, easily topping Wall Street estimates. Dell also reported a record $95 billion AI server backlog and raised full-year revenue guidance to $192 billion.

Consequently, the stock surged over 7% in post market trading, rapidly reversing its regular-session losses.

$Broadcom(AVGO.US)’s upcoming Q3 earnings test whether the AI semiconductor boom is diversifying beyond Nvidia's dominance. Wall Street expects $29.4B revenue and $3.24 adjusted EPS, with Broadcom guiding for ~$16B in AI revenue (up >200% YoY).

❓ This raises a key question: Does Nvidia need to lose for Broadcom to win in AI infrastructure?

Previous Q2 results showed revenue of $22.2B (+48% YoY) and AI revenue of $10.8B (+143% YoY), driven by high EBITDA margins (69%) and free cash flow (46%). Instead of competing head-on with Nvidia's GPUs and CUDA ecosystem, Broadcom partners with hyperscalers (such as Meta on its 2nm MTIA silicon and OpenAI on inference chips) to build custom AI accelerators (ASICs/XPUs) and high-speed Ethernet networking.

🐂 The Bull Case: The AI infrastructure market is expanding rather than acting as a zero-sum game. Nvidia maintains dominance in frontier computing, while hyperscalers deploy custom silicon for predictable, cost- and power-efficient workloads. Broadcom benefits from custom chips and cluster networking, enabling rapid growth alongside Nvidia.

🐻 The Bear Case: Broadcom faces extreme expectations, valuation pressure, customer concentration risk among a few giant hyperscalers, and Nvidia's entrenched ecosystem advantages. Meeting high guidance may not be enough for Wall Street.

👀 Looking Ahead: Broadcom sees potential for its AI business to surpass $100B annually by 2027. Success depends on custom silicon shifting from experiments to permanent infrastructure, sustained capex, expanding inference, and execution across tech roadmaps.

⭐ 🗝️ Key takeaway: Ultimately, the key metrics I am watching are whether Broadcom hits its $16B target, broadens customer adoption, and proves custom silicon and GPUs can co-exist as dual pillars of AI compute.

My Trade: In the meantime, I will just sit on my current position.

context: $Mapletree Ind Trust(ME8U.SG)has been one of the stronger REIT for many years but it lost it's shine since it's US data center portfolio became questionable.

My Trade: Being an income investor for the longer term, I believe the management could navigate the ship through the storm and hence I accumulated slowly when price hit my buy zone. Of late, sentiments became more positive, and price actually held up, when an unconfirmed divestment plan of 22 US data centers surfaced.

My takeaway: Know you time horizon and objective of holding. There is no point to trade in and out.

I received a $Circle(CRCL.US) stock cash coupon today which made me curious 🧐 about their business model.

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) bridges traditional finance and Web 3.0 by acting as the issuer of USD Coin (USDC) 🪙.

Its core business model is a hybrid of fixed-income treasury management, payment processing, and Web 3.0 platform services.

🗝️ Key Revenue Drivers:

1. Reserve Yield Engine 🚂

* Mechanism: When users deposit U.S. dollars to mint USDC 1:1, Circle holds 100% of the backing assets in high-quality short-term U.S. Treasuries and cash.

* Economics: Circle keeps the yield on these reserves while the token pays no yield to end-holders.

* Formula: Gross Revenue = USDC Circulation x Reserve Yield

2. Coinbase Revenue Share 💰

* On-Platform: Coinbase earns 100% of interest on USDC held in Coinbase accounts.

* Off-Platform: Yield from USDC in external wallets, DeFi, and other exchanges is split 50/50 between Circle and Coinbase.

3. Developer Platforms & APIs 🤖

* Infrastructure services (Programmable Wallets, Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol [CCTP], Gas Station APIs) generate recurring usage and fee-based non-reserve revenue.

💪 Investment Pros & Cons

1. Strengths 👍

* Strong regulatory compliance (state BitLicenses, European MiCA adherence).

* Institutional backing and reserve management via BlackRock.

* Zero-debt, high-margin asset management model.

2. Risks 👎

* High sensitivity to rate cuts (lower Fed funds rate reduces reserve yield).

* Heavy revenue distribution shared with Coinbase.

* Competition from yield-bearing stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and bank initiatives.

⭐ Retail Investor Takeaway

CRCL functions as a high-margin float business where top-line expansion relies on global USDC circulation outpacing benchmark interest rate drops.