gedebe

$PUBLIC FIN HOLD(00626.HK)

Context: Public Financial Holdings Limited (HK) is rumored to be privatized by it's parent company, Public Bank Berhad in Malaysia. If we take the book value (BV) ratio at 1.0, the share price for privatization will be HK$6-9 per share but if there is a takeover the BV ratio will be 1.5. The current price before stock being halted is HK$1.55

My trade: trading is halted since 20 Aug pending announcement

Takeaway: However, for privatization, looking at the parent company Public Bank M'sia which is not that generous in giving dividend, I could say that using BV as the privatization benchmark is wishful thinking and the more realistic of takeover price will be HK$2 per share

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$PUBLIC FIN HOLD(00626.HK)

Context: I am going to talk about a not so popular HK stock, Public Finance Limited Bank which has the market capitalization of HK$2 billion. It is not listed as the top tier bank in Hong Kong. The parent company is Public Bank Berhad which listed in Malaysia and is the 3rd largest bank in that country. This bank offer finance with it's subsidiary Public Bank HK offering the depositing service$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US). The performances of this bank is not great:

2025: profit, HK$79.65 million

2024: loss, ~HK$999.39 million

2023: profit, HK$14.38 million

2022: profit, HK$328.70 million

2020: profit, HK$396.90 million

My trade: on 20th Aug, the share of this bank was halted and has yet to resume as of now

Takeaway: official announcement point to a major corporate exercise but unofficial information show that it will be privatised by it's parent company from Malaysia

$Netflix(NFLX.US)

context: Netflix was my wrong move. I bought Netflix share when seeing that they are going to introduce advertisement into their subscription plan and creating another source of revenue. They are expecting to deliver roughly US$3 billion for this FY. This is already an increase of 100% from the initial US$1.5 billion from previous year. Netflix is trying hard to earn from advert, the total active subscribers with advert are ~250 million and are showing encouraging number.

My Trade: trim Netflix shares

Takeaway: For now advertising is still a small slice of Netflix total full-year revenues at > US$50 billion.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

context: Nvidia earnings of US96 billion blew past analyst expectation by exceeding the target of US$92 billion. The share price jumps 8.7% and add US$442 bil, second-biggest gain of all time. Nvidia also proof that I was wrong in predicting that the share price will drop after the earnings reports where for the past 5 quarters, only 1 quarter caused the share price to go up on the day after the report: Q3 FY2026, Nov 19, $Netflix(NFLX.US)2025: rose 6%.

My trade: add Nvidia shares

Takeaway: past record does not determine future performance of stock

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)context: Nvidia is actively investing in AI related companies with the hope of strengthening the AI ecosystem. Below is just some of the investment:

1. Anthropic: US$10 billion, Jul 2026

2. Nebius: US$2 billion, Jan 2026

3. Iren: US$2.1 billion, 2026

4. Corning: US$3.2 billion, 2026

5. Marvell: US$2, 2026

While N$Netflix(NFLX.US)vidia have every right to do some when sitting on ~US$100 billion free cash flow as of FY2026, it is creating a circular financing that can cause an AI bubble.

My trade: Trim Nvidia shares

Takeaway: If Nvidia want to invest, investor would rather see the money goes to end users and infrastructure companies that is not related to IT like power generation and healthcare.

$ExxonMobil(XOM.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Context: Trump again thought that he will strangle Iran by imposing what he dubbed as mother of all economic sanction. Before the Iran, Iran's GDP was at $475.25 billion in 2024 then fell to $420–$460 in 2025. Inflation was high at 40-50%, it was during early 2026 that mass protests begin to erupt and caused 30+k civilians killed by Iran authorities. It was after this that Trump attacked Iran thinking that after killing it's top leaders, the civilians will take this opportunities to force a regime change. It did did not happen. There might be dissidents but it were not enough to take down Iran government and neither will the mother of all economic sanction force Iranian to topple their government.

My trade: maintain, wait and see

Takeaway: Economic sanction is nothing to Iranian who are willing to sacrifice themselves for the country and their belief.

Indonesia has been giving headache to Wilmar again. In May, they were accused of under invoicing as much as 50% by the government. Later Kalimantan faced with decreased rain fall in Kalimantan resulting in lower yield of palm oil. Kalimantan has 80% of Wilmar oil palm plantation. The short fall will benefit Indonesia palm oil competitor like Malaysia. However, revenue for 2026H1 was still good at US$38.6 billion and profit before tax was up 13% YOY amounting to US$1.06 billion.$Wilmar(F34.SG)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Sea just jumped 15% on Aug 11 because of a superb Q2 revenue which is US$7.79 billion, exceeding analyst expectation. It was a fantastic recovery from a disappointing Q4Y25 on Mar which make this stock sank by 23%. But looking ahead, Sea need to overcame fierce competition from PDD Holdings who is handling Temu and Pinduoduo ecommerce platform. They are aggressively selling goods directly from manufacture and offer free international shipping even for very low value item. But PDD share is also suffering with a drop of 17% YTD. Consumer will be cheering when they fight but their stock will suffer.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund's just got US$184.3 Billion richer driven mainly by technology stock. It held 1.28% stake worth US$62 billion in Nvidia, a 1.24% stake worth US$52 billion in Apple, a 1.17% stake worth US$50 billion in Alphabet, a 1.27% stake worth US$35 billion in Microsoft and a 1.7% stake worth US$34 billion in Taiwan's TSMC. This was their largest gain ever. Like wise, Singapore's Sovereign Fund's, Temasek just invested into Sk Hynix and Samsung after both of the stock having endure a bitter sell off since July. However Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund's do caution against having a 20% high of technology stocks in it's portfolio arguing that any economic volatility will easily erased all it's gain. Is technology stocks exposure too great in your portfolio, mine surely is and it due time to either cash out or diversify.

Nvidia has been spending big, investing in it's customers, below are just the notable one:

1. Intel: $5 billion on September 18, 2025

2. CoreWeave: $2 billion in January 2026

3. Marvell Technology: $2 billion on March 31, 2026.

With a massive free cash in Nvidia pocket, year 2025 at ~$43.21 billion and year to date at $62.56 billion, they surely can spend. On the surface it looks like Nvidia is trying to strengthen the AI ecosystem. Others argue that Nvidia is engaging in a circular economy where money is just changing within themselves and the only thing expanding is AI bubble but not the economy.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

I do not blame Iran for being suspicious of Trump. They were bombed by US on Jun 22, 2025 on 3 nuclear facilities and then on Feb 28, 2026, they were attacked by both Israel and US. Both events took place when US were negotiating with Iran. US and Iran signed a MOU in June 2026 for ceasefire just for US to start firing again, US claimed Iran breached the ceasefire. For now, Iran who rather negotiate with Oman, which they felt more trustworthy. Oil price has been is the decline since the news of ceasefire, declining from the peak of ~US$126 to US$70 per barrel since ceasefire news broke out. But price has been in the rise ~US$78 when Iran is saying that they are reaching a deal with Oman but won't open the Strait of Hormuz until US "behave", not sure how Iran is expecting the most erratic US president to do that, it means oil price will stays elevated!$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Apple who is hailed as the king of supply chain where they manage to diversified supply chain and seek for the best price of components has to succumb to the high price of memory chip and shortage of advanced chip manufacturing for it's CPU, no thanks for explosive demand from AI. 2026Q3 earnings rose to US$109.42 billion, an increase of 16.4% which beats estimate of 15.5%. Customer grab more IPhones and Macbooks in anticipation of price increase. However what is worrying is the gloomy future forecast of slower sales due to supply constraint. Also impounding is App store showing slower growth, it rose 12.1% to US$30.74 billion, missing estimate of US$31.22 billion. Apple just reclaimed the title of the world's most valuable company and has risen 22% for this year alone they need to prove that they are still in control of what they used to manage flawlessly.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Samsung reported an explosive 250 fold increase on 2026Q2 operating profit. Revenue jumps 130% YOY and increases 28% quarterly to US$119 billion. HBM delivers the strongest sales by amounting to >60% of the revenue. The stocks rise 4% after this report but quickly drop to closed at 1% lower. It seems that this wonderful report still fails to stop the rout in the Korean stock market. Analysts expect this to continue until most of the investors who use leverage to invest are being flushed out. Is Korean memory stock uninvest able or investor just waiting to do bottom fishing?$SK Hynix(SKHY.US)

Boeing after suffering from the 737 Max 2 fatal crashed (2018 and 2019) and door plug issue which caused a blown door in mid air (2024) is slowly climbing back from his deepest crisis in quality control. The latest earnings Q2 2026 show an encouraging performance with rising revenue US$24.6 billion but profit missed expectations due to the cost overruns amounting to US$280 million of the yet to be delivered Air Force 1 for POTUS. Boeing won the contract for building 2 Air Force 1 with price tag of US$3.9 billion (2018) but it seems that they miscalculated the cost and has to bear every dollar of cost exceeding the contract price. I wonder how Boeing did their cost evaluation (again another quality issue) that not just did not earn them any profit but causing losses that affected quarter earnings!$Boeing(BA.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Kospi index has risen more than double since early 2025 (2399 at start of 2025 and 6023 as of 28 Jul), this is unprecended and an correction is expected.The rise of the index is caused retail investor leveraging on borrowed money which is not healthy. Kospi is very much consists of Skhynix and Samsung which were rocketed with their HBM product. Skhynix hold around 58% and Samsung 40% of market shares. To how low that the Kospi can go is anybody guess now. Currently, Skhynix ADR is cheaper than the IPO price of US$149, it might even get cheaper.$SK Hynix(SKHY.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Intel beat earnings at US$16.13 billion, a 25% increase from last year. However the share which was up 15% in post market after the earnings announcement was down 8% during market trading last Fri. CNBC's Jim Cramer vouched for this stock before the stock fell. The reason for the drop was the massive GAAP loss in the tuned of US$11 billion, the other reason was the current price is already up by 150% this year alone and at this price, investor has priced a lot of good news and once some bad news came, it just poked the bubble.$Intel(INTC.US)

Netflix woos deepen. After the stock slide on the propose intention to buy Paramount, at the time it was the worry that the huge purchase bill amounting to US$83 billion will weigh down on its gearing, stock down by ~18%, then it was co-founder Reed Hastings who exited Netflix, another ~10% down. And now a slightly above expectation Q2 2026 earning but with a bleak forecast, another ~7% down. The only good news were when the stock split of 10-1 on 30 Oct, 2025, stock rose by ~2% and the termination of Paramount purchase, stock rose ~14% on 26 Feb, 2026. It has dropped more than 40% from US$134 on June 2025 to the current US$68. Do you still believe in Netflix?

Warren Buffett, The Oracle of Omaha, has given over US$68 billion to charity and has planned to further give US$140 billion by 2034. He is the largest billionaire donor in the world and pledge to give 99.5% of his wealth. However, he spoke on the overvaluation of today stock market and thinks it hard to find any good bargain in current market. He liken the stock market as a church with a casino connected to it and investors as gamblers. The heighten valuation is mainly fueled by AI stocks and the current value of AI stocks is more than US$600 billion. If it pops, it will be very ugly. Let's hope the most successful investor is wrong this time!

US SK Hynix stock drop by 9% and the Korea counterpart dropped by 15.37% just in Monday. The dropped was so severe that now the Kospi has entered a bear market, dropping 20 to 30% from it highest record. This is despite that it is still the world best performance stocks market. Analyst sees that SK Hynix won't have so much bargaining power when selling High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) to AI companies who will sign long term agreement to secure stock and tame price fluctuation. This is unlike the DDR ram that is determined by market forces and it's price has rocketed 3 to 4 times. Some analyst are beginning to advice that investor who has profited to the recent AI boom to exit their position and switch to healthcare or some other conventional industries.$SK Hynix(SKHY.US)

Is it a bubble or a healthy sell off? Micron has fallen 17.5% after announcing the 2026Q2 earnings. But it rebounded and was boosted by the listing of Sk Hynix in Nasdap. Micron stock has risen more than 9 times in the past 1 year. To me the valuation is stretched but not to some the analysts. They expect the memory shortage to continue until 2027! AI has created an explosive demand on high memory bandwidth (HBM) so much so that some player like Samsung have shifted from focusing on DDR5 ram to HBM. This has resulted in price increase of technology products due to DDR5 supply constraint. The only way to overcome this is by the memory players building more factories to increase output but this itself will take years. This is why Bank of America predicted that Micron stock still has room to rise, up till US$1550!$Micron Tech(MU.US)

Trump is clearly bullying Iran and thinking that this will lead them into submission. Iranians para military while just wearing slippers and robes, will still fight until their death. I wonder why Trump who wrote The Art Of The Deal would fair so badly in dealing with Iran for a deal. He owes everyone who bought his book a refund!

Oil jumps nearly 6% and the stock market wobbles again. The only consolation is Technology index Nasdaq recovered 0.2% after sell off of Samsung stocks.

Trump clearly is doing insider trading. Just a day before he make an overhaul to his Liberation Day Tariff, there were 327 stock purchases on Apr 8, 2025 and the next day, S&P jumped 9.5%, the best day ever. He bought a lot of shares in Nvidia, Apple, Amazon and Microsoft. On Apr 9, Apple itself jumped 15%, again the best day ever since listed. When accused of insider trading, White House spokeswoman claimed the president is a highly successful businessman but there is no conflict of interest as other people is managing his money. Together with stocks, crypto and other revenue, Trump collected US$2.24 billion. For the same reason that Trump is a successful businessman it is unthinkable that he is not finding every opportunity to profit from his position. Just that instead of mere millions, he seeks billions.$Amazon(AMZN.US)$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Price of Crypto have been in the downward spiral. No thanks to rumors that US Federal Reserve will be hiking interest rate due to high inflation in the US. Keeping them do not earn any interest so in the environment that is anticipating a rate hike, people rush to sell unproductive asset and move it to fixed deposit and enjoy interest regardless of the market condition. Bitcoin is now around US$60k, it hit highest at US$126K on Oct 2025. Bitcoin dropped was also attributed to investors recycling their funds from crypto to AI stocks. AI stocks are all the focus now but they are also not immune from risks of over investment. But both of them are here to stay even as they face sell off or even crashes.

If you look at Mag7 performance for the past 1 year, you would be forgiven for thinking that they belong to sunset industry, this is despite that the AI tech run is still running at full speed. Top among them are Microsoft who lost around 33% from it peak, closely follow is Tesla with 32% dropped. The hardware marker related to AI like Micron and Broadcom has performance that easily outdone any of the Mag7. Core among the reasons lies in whether Microsoft (spend $146 - $190 billion), Amazon (spend $200 billion) and Alphabet (spend $175 - 185 billion) shopping spree in AI infrastructure can generate any tangible return. Their stock current price provide an opportunity for bargain hunter but it comes with risks.$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$Amazon(AMZN.US)