China exported ~$48B worth of cars in 3Q26.
NEV now accounts for ~71% of all vehicles.Source: Chips & Wafers
AI Gossip
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Intel CEO: It will take Intel a long time to establish a competitive foundry business, Nikkei Asia reports, citing CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who said it took TSMC 10 – 20 years to become the world’s biggest chip foundry.
"From a foundry's point of view, Intel had to look at the longer-term horizon, and it's always very important to have very strong government involvement supporting," he said, adding that the business could become a growth driver "if we do it right," but "it takes time." $Intel(INTC.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #semiconductorsSource: Dan Nystedt
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Rumor: Google’s next-gen AI silicon, the TPU v9, may face delays due to low yields on glass substrates used in advanced packaging, DigiTimes reports. The Google–MediaTek project was originally slated for mass production in late 2027 and volume shipments in 2028. This rumor is the latest sign of trouble on the advanced packaging side, with the companies reportedly making design adjustments to resolve the issue. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #mediatek #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
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Powertech Technology (PTI), the Taiwanese OSAT, just disclosed a ~$23M packaging equipment order from Onto Innovation.
The purchases built up in only 20 days, which points to a single large batch.PTI’s 2026 equipment orders now total ~$560M YTD, nearly double all of 2025.Source: Chips & Wafers
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TSMC’s 2nd fab in Kumamoto will open in December, 2028 and use 3nm production technology instead of the 6/12nm nodes originally planned, media report, adding the new 3nm production plan calls for 6,000 wafer per month (wpm) for phase 1 capacity.
-TSMC’s total capex investment in Fabs 1 & 2 in Kumamoto is now seen over US$23 billion, up from a US$20B estimate from 2024.-A Japan govt subsidy for the 1st phase of investment has been set at ¥645.15 billion yen (US$4.1B), while total government support could meet or exceed the original ¥732 billion approved by Tokyo. -TSMC also modified the 1st fab production plan to focus solely on 22/28nm (drop 12/16nm) at 45,000 wpm output, from 55,000 originally. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #semiconductors #JapanSource: Dan Nystedt
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AUO Chairman Paul Peng defended the use of Micro LEDs for co-packaged optics (CPO), saying the technology works well for short distances (10cm) inside server chassis, while consuming only 5% to 10% of the power used by copper wires, media report, adding that a new optical cable revealed by Credo at the OCP Summit last week proves the technology is a viable alternative to high-cost traditional lasers. Credo debuted a 1.6T ZeroFlap Active Light Cable using a micro-emitter architecture (supporting distances up to 50 meters) at OCP. $Credo Tech(CRDO.US) #CPO #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
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Samsung has accepted Nvidia’s request to have TSMC manufacture the base die for NVHBM (Nvidia’s custom HBM based on next-gen HBM4E), a concession to the world’s biggest HBM buyer, media report. Samsung joins SK Hynix and Micron in using TSMC’s 3nm base die to ensure consistent performance and reduce validation work across suppliers.
Among the three big memory chip makers, only Samsung has historically supplied its own base die for HBM and will continue to do so for standard products and other clients. It is also validating whether it can supply its own version of the NVHBM base die in case demand exceeds TSMC’s capacity. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $SSNLF #Samsung #semiconductorsSource: Dan Nystedt
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TSMC predicts A14 to be a bigger node than N2. Every new node is now breaking records. TSMC's N2 node grew 3x q/q to $3B+ in 3Q26. The node also happens to be the first billion dollar opener for TSMC nodes when it hit $1B+ in 2Q26. That $1.0B was just 3% of wafer revenue vs 11% for N7 at its debut as TSMC's quarterly wafer base grew >4x during this time. Every generation now starts smaller in share and larger in dollars. N2's 14% jump over N3 is the biggest generational step in a decade.
Source: Sravan Kundojjala
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TSMC 3Q26: Revenue and OPM above high-end guidance while GM above mid-point.
3Q26 vs 3Q25: Revenue: $46.7B (+16% q/q & +41% y/y) Gross Margin: 66.4% (59.5%) Operating Margin: 58.7% (50.6%) 9M26 Capex: $40.6 (+38% y/y); massive 4Q loadingWafer Shipments: 4.476M (+10%) Wafer ASP: $8731 (+25%)Source: Sravan Kundojjala
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AMAT Investor Event
- expects both a bigger market and higher share. Leading-edge logic, DRAM and advanced packaging should generate 75% of incremental WFE growth through 2030- Targets >2 ppt of WFE share gain, from 18.3% in CY2025 to an implied >20.3%- CY2030 profitability targets are 54% GM & 40% OPM; points inflationary costs limiting GM upside- Advanced packaging business to scale to $5B in a few years vs current $2.4B; HBM packaging $1B in CY26Source: Sravan Kundojjala
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AI server giant Wistron’s board approved 2 new capital spending projects and a plan to buy a factory from Coretronic Corp. for no more than NT$1 billion to convert for AI server production, media report.
The 2 new capex projects are for NT$6.5 billion and NT$591.6 billion at plants in Kaohsiung and Hsinchu, Taiwan. The Coretronic plant is in Tainan. The new Kaohsiung plant will be done by end-2026 and begin production in early 2027, while the Hsinchu plant is being expanded with new equipment. Wistron said its capex will continue to rise in 2027. $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) #semiconductors #AIserversSource: Dan Nystedt
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Nanya 3Q26
- Legacy DRAM tightness proxy at 85.7% GM- Revenue up 60% q/q and 566% y/y to $4.18B (4.9x the 3Q21 prior-cycle peak ($856M))- LTAs cover 50-70% of output; 3-year contracts are >20%- One quarter of revenue is now 2.1x FY23 ($958M) plus FY24 ($1.06B) combined and 1.9x all of FY25 ($2.16B). First 9 months of CY26 revenue is $8.3B- Price alone drove growth. ASP up >60% q/q while bit shipments down MSD q/qSource: Sravan Kundojjala
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Prices for advanced semiconductor testing are set to rise 10% - 30% as supply falls far short of demand, media report, calling upcoming price increases ‘the strongest in history.’ Chip testing times continue to lengthen as chips become more complex and demand booms as Cloud giants launch their own AI chips. Testing prices for rush orders for smaller clients have doubled, the report says, adding that ASE, KYEC, PTI and Ardentec are all benefitting from stronger pricing. $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US) $Teradyne(TER.US) $Formfactor(FORM.US) $Cohu(COHU.US) #BESI #Advantest #TokyoElectron #ChromaATE
Source: Dan Nystedt
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Formosa Plastics is eyeing Texas for a major expansion in US semiconductor-related chemical production to supply TSMC and other US-based clients, media report, citing company Chairman WB Kuo. The company already operates a petrochemical mega-site in Texas. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #semiconductors #FormosaPlastics #supplychain
Source: Dan Nystedt
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ASML, AMAT, Lam and KLA are all engaged in Terafab project. SpaceX will spend $3B+ on pilot line and $16.8B on 1st Phase high volume fab. KLA could play a critical role in Terafab's early ramp (inspection and metrology tools) to tackle process defects and accelerate yield learning.
Source: Sravan Kundojjala
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Taiwan AI power supply giant Lite-On Technology has inked a US$350 million (NT$11.06B) contract for construction of its plant in McKinney, Texas, aimed at high-voltage DC power racks and AI infrastructure production, media report, adding the contract is part of a US$919 million plan approved by Lite-On’s board in April. Lite-On’s 2026 capex plan is now NT$18 billion, versus NT$7 billion last year. #Texas #AI #liteon
Source: Dan Nystedt
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The start of Nvidia Vera Rubin server production, mass Blackwell GB300 and B300 server production are fueling record high revenue at AI server giant Wistron, and AMD CEO Lisa Su’s recent visit to a new Wistron plant (Zhubei A1) point to continued strength with Helios server orders as well, media report.
Wistron’s 3rd quarter revenue rose 102.4% year-on-year to an all-time-high NT$1.15 trillion, while January thru September revenue hit NT$2.9 trillion, up 97.3%. September revenue rose 87.2% to NT$380.81 billion. Wistron again beat out rival Quanta Computer for 2nd place in quarterly revenue among Taiwan AI server makers. Foxconn is No. 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US)Source: Dan Nystedt
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Fragmented customer landscape is good for semicaps. Two years ago, TSMC dependency emerged as a concern for suppliers (Intel/memory weakness). But things took a different turn with fragmented leading-edge foundry landscape (five leading-edge players outside China now) and growing influence of memory and packaging houses. A larger customer base means better profit margins, as no single customer has outsized bargaining power.
Source: Sravan Kundojjala
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MediaTek's 3rd quarter revenue hit a record high NT$168.06 billion, up 18.2% year-on-year and up 10.2% over the 2nd quarter, media report, also exceeding the top end of guidance (NT$159.8B).
MediaTek is benefitting from the launch of two powerful smartphone chips, Dimensity 9600M, made on TSMC 3nm, and Dimensity 9600 Pro, made on TSMC 2nm.The company has said it expects global smartphone shipments to fall around 15% this year, but its business has been boosted by new work in custom ASIC design. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) #mediatek #semiconductorsSource: Dan Nystedt
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TSMC supplier Gudeng Precision will begin operations at its first USA plant in Glendale, Arizona in the 4th quarter to supply semiconductor equipment to TSMC and other clients, as well as produce aerospace-related products, media report, adding Gudeng executives said Arizona has complete industrial clusters in both sectors. Gudeng’s top chip-related products include wafer carriers, advanced packaging carriers. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #semiconductors #Arizona
Source: Dan Nystedt
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Taiwan's semiconductor exports in September rose 46.1% year-on-year to US$29.74 billion, raising January thru September to $220.0B, up 47.3%, and leading Taiwan exports to an all-time high for a single month in September.
Overall exports rose 60.9% to $87.22 billion, led by expanding AI-related business opportunities and strong sales in the traditional peak season for technology goods, media report, while imports also hit a record high, rising 51.7% to $63.59 billion.IT and Audio/visual exports rose 103% to $39.13 billion, a category that includes AI servers, general servers, PCs, and graphics cards, while electronics component exports, including semiconductors, rose 45.3% to $31.13B $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US)Source: Dan Nystedt
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People don't realize what's happening at the OSATs right now.
In 9 months of 2026, Taiwanese OSATs have placed ~$11B of equipment orders, more than 2019–2025 COMBINED. Q3 alone was a record $4.6B.Source: Chips & Wafers
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Taiwanese ABF names on a tear🔥
Up +53% YoY in September, +34% YTD.Not stopping anytime soon.Source: Chips & Wafers
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TSMC September Monthly & 3Q26
- Sep revenue up 0.3% M/M and 48.1% Y/Y to $16.133B- First 9 months of revenue > total CY25 revenue- 7th straight all-time high and the 8th of 9 months in 2026- Sep has averaged -1.3% M/M over 2021-25; so this beat 3 of the last 5 Sep- 33 straight months of Y/Y growth (since Jan ’24)- Sep was 34.5% of the quarter, the highest share since 2021Source: Sravan Kundojjala