Bottom line for the desk: Watch the first 15 minutes of the speech for tone (hawkish/dovish keywords), then track 10Y yield reaction in real time — that's your leading indicator before equity markets fully reprice. SOX and gold will likely be the fastest, cleanest signals to relay to the team.
PCE at 3.7% beat expectations unexpectedly, pushing the probability of no rate hike in September from 35% to 66%. Since Walsh took office, forward guidance has been scrapped and the dot plot abolished...



