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Tesla: Buy The Dip or Sell The News?

The structural disconnect following the high stakes reveal by $Tesla(TSLA.US) points heavily toward Option B: Sell the news: A gold car, no livestream, no regulatory green light, still Austin only.

While the economic promise of a USD 20,000 to USD 30,000 vehicle base price and hyper optimised cost per mile fleet metrics are compelling, the complete absence of a public livestream and zero immediate federal regulatory exemptions turn this launch into a classic showcase rather than an active commercial catalyst.

In contrast, $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) Waymo is quietly operating driverless commercial passenger rides across 14 separate cities. Waymo isn't behind. It is simply executing a highly disciplined , regulatory compliant commercial build out while Tesla relies on theatrical invite-only showcase and social media teasers.

This launch wasn't a failure. It was just a beautiful demo that reminds us that the road to full autonomy is paved with endless compliance paperwork. It is still early days for Cybercab to catch up with Waymo, which is way better than Tesla's Cybercab for now.

🌟🌟🌟$Dell Tech(DELL.US)was the big winner today when its shares soared 16 % post earnings. It announced that its AI server backlog has exploded to a staggering USD 95 billion, triples its earnings per share and upgrades its full year road map by USD 25 billion. Absolute euphoria!

In contrast $Broadcom(AVGO.US)dropped 3.93%. The drop reflects the market processing its softer than expected 4th quarter revenue guidance. This is despite stellar Q3 numbers and robust multi year AI sales projections.

Expect the unexpected when it comes to Earnings season.

🌟🌟🌟Oil already jumped 5% on the US Iran strikes with Brent around USD 94 to USD 95 and WTI near USD 90. Markets closed lower because traders are pricing in higher inflation, higher rates and uncertain conflict duration.

Should you buy beaten down tech stocks now? Not yet. Tech is extremely rate sensitive and Morgan Stanley warns that a prolonged conflict could box in the Fed, reducing the odds of rate cuts and keeping financial conditions tight.

Tech only becomes a buy when Oil stabilises, inflation expectations cool and Fed regains confidence to cut. Right now, none of those conditions are met.

🌟🌟🌟I believe that $Broadcom(AVGO.US)will close down 3% to 8% to USD 352. This correction is not because Broadcom is a failing tech stock. It is simply the cold mechanical reality of a brutal macroeconomic crosscurrent with the Iran war possibly escalating with fresh attacks by the US.

Broadcom is in fact a great tech stock as it operates a high margin, custom silicon monopoly that captures 54% of its revenue directly from the physical backbone of the global AI infrastructure buildout. Broadcom powers 99% of global internet traffic and has a multi billion dollar backlog that competitors can only dream of.

This downturn is a gift for disciplined long term investors of Broadcom who can buy and hold long term.

🌟🌟🌟If you woke up this morning, and felt a sinking sensation when you see a sea of red , you are not alone. The financial world is collectively enduring a massive macroeconomic panic attack.

Fresh US military strikes on Iranian targets have driven crude oil prices to a blistering USD 95 a barrel, supercharging a brutal worldwide bond rout that has pushed the Federal Reserve rate hike odds for September toward a staggering 70%.

This is exactly why it is good to put some money into $iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF(SGOV.US). While tech stocks are taking a hit, SGOV is sitting perfectly flat. It is safely accumulating risk free monthly yields , waiting for the opportunity to buy quality stocks at a steep discount.

🌟🌟🌟 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's unexpectedly hawkish Jackson Hole debut has fundamentally realigned market expectations, driving Wall Street's bets for a September interest rate hike above 60%.

Just when investors were getting comfortable dreaming of aggressive rate cuts and endless liquidity, Warsh took the podium in Wyoming and turned off the music.

Warsh made one thing crystal clear: the Fed is commited to a discipline, not a decision. Translation? If the upcoming data stays hot, interest rates are going higher and White House's complaints ahead of November midterms won't stop him.

It is time to pivot from growth heavy portfolio to defensive portfolio.

A good strategy is to park some money into $iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF(SGOV.US). SGOV locks your money into Treasury Bills with maturities of 3 months or less. It also has a razor thin expense ratio of 0.07%. The primary objective is capital preservation and low cost cash yield.

I don't think President Trump will be happy with Kevin Warsh.

🌟🌟🌟The SaaS-pocalypse is officially cancelled & software stocks are being re-rated hard. This proves that AI isn't an existential executioner. AI is actually the ultimate catalyst for software stocks.

The latest market closing numbers tell the whole story of this short squeeze renaissance. 3 software stocks $Okta(OKTA.US)$Salesforce(CRM.US)& $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US)are up double digits.

The latest fiscal Q2 numbers prove that enterprise software is successfully absorbing the AI Capex boom.

The software sector isn't going obsolete. It is simply upgrading its armour.

🌟🌟🌟After $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)'s roar, what comes next? NVIDIA broke its jinx this week, not just a bounce but a strong statement. Jensen Huang with his signature leather jacket walked onto the stage, shrugged off every doubt, and NVIDIA went up like it finally remembered that it is the heartbeat of the AI revolution.

But the market never lets you finish your victory lap. After NVIDIA, 2 new characters enter the drama:

PCE - the inflation report that decides whether the market gets champagne or black coffee.

Kevin Warsh - the new Fed Chair whose comments can move sentiment faster than a GPU can process a frame.

What is the next catalyst?

If NVIDIA was the spark, PCE is the oxygen.

If NVIDIA was the roar, Warsh is the echo.

This week feels like the market is standing at the edge of a cliff - not in fear, but in anticipation.

NVIDIA went up, broke its curse and now the whole market is wondering whether the macro gods will bless the momentum or test it.

🌟🌟🌟Bitcoin didn't just move. It roared. One clean macro spark, one brutal short squeeze and suddenly the entire crypto market is staring at USD80,000.

What just happened?

This wasn't just luck. This was liquidity, policy and raw demand colliding at the same moment.

The single biggest catalyst was the US Treasury doubling long dated bond buybacks from USD 2 billion to at least USD 4 billion per operation with potential deployment of USD 950 billion from the US Treasury General Account. This pushed yields lower. Lower yields means lower opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin.

Then there is President Trump urging Congress to accelerate the Clarity Act.

Can Bitcoin go further? Yes. The key resistance zone is between USD 81,250 to USD 83,000. A good strategy to get into Bitcoin is to buy $iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(IBIT.US). iBit is the largest spot Bitcoin ETF with assets under management of USD 47.5 billion, controlling 61% of all Bitcoin held across US spot ETFs.

It is time to get back into Bitcoin as crypto winter is over.

🌟🌟🌟I believe that it is likely that $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)wull close up 2% to 7% on Thursday 27 August, given that option market makers have compressed NVIDIA's implied move to 5.4%. This is the lowest implied earnings volatility for NVIDIA since August 2021.

By breaking its 7 day losing streak to finish up 2.2% in the pre earnings session, there is optimism in the air. This is the rational Beat-and-raise scenario with Q2 revenue clearing the USD 92.06 billion consensus while Q3 guidance smoothly advances past the USD 103.7 billion line.

Let's see whether CEO Jensen Huang with his signature black leather jacket can break the jinx and bring much needed cheer to investors like me.

🌟🌟🌟I believe that $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)will be up 2% to 7%. It is the rational Beat and Raise. Q2 revenue clears the USD 92.06 billion consensus while Q3 guidance smoothly advances past the USD 103.7 billion line.