Heroic Lifesaver

Pre Earnings GEV treat

$GE Vernova(GEV.US)

On of my favourite stocks. Not much fanfare but very important in the AI space with excellent fundamentals and very good in what they do. Much like a star defender in a good team. Everyone talks about the strikers and players who score goals but doesn’t pay attention to the unsung heroes. GEV is that star defender.

Technicals and fundamentals align here. I have been buying in layers on the dip. Results in a short while. Let’s see if they can deliver.

I will follow up with another post after earnings.

@Captain's Treasure

$ExxonMobil(XOM.US)

I have highlighted this stock as one of those on the other end of the spectrum for my portfolio which is heavy on tech. Call it a hedge if you want but it is just one of those that tend to do well when tech pulls back.

And it has been doing well. Better than tech at least in the last two weeks or so.

However, when tech roared ahead like last night, instead of retreating at what also happens to be its upper resistance line, it breaks above it.

Chevron has done so earlier. So I am not surprised Exxon joined the party. Can it hold above the line now? That will be the tell.

@Captain's Treasure

Talk about a deluge of earnings to kick off tech earnings. Earnings for Tesla and Alphabet will be eagerly waited for. But before that, I am excited for GEV who will report before market opens.

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

I am leaning bullish on Alphabet into earnings, but the key test is whether its enormous AI investment is translating into profitable growth.

In Q1, Search revenue grew 19% while Google Cloud surged 63% to $20 billion, suggesting AI is strengthening rather than cannibalising the core business. So I will be watching Cloud growth, Search monetisation and operating margins closely.

The main risk is Alphabet’s planned $180–190 billion of 2026 capital expenditure, which could pressure free cash flow and increase depreciation.

Strong growth combined with disciplined spending would reinforce the bull case.

@Captain's Watch

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)

Let’s have a look at Gold’s chart and its price action. Since what looks like a local low on 24th June, Gold has held those lows and seems to have successfully retested it rebounding off the avwap at 365. If the price firms up and rallies from here, the bottom might be in. On a side note, price has made 3 waves off the ATH and a full 5 waves looks complete for the C wave. In other words, the fourth wave looks complete in terms of price and time.

@Captain's Treasure

It has been a healthy pullback for tech especially the AI names, much needed in fact. Price looks like it is stabilising and ready for its next leg up.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

It’s time to look at Nvidia for the week. Last week, she was holding right above the 200D MA precariously. However, she held that support and started turning up towards the end of the week as higher beta keeps getting sold.

When you look at similar big cap profiles in tech such as AMD, AVGO and TSM, AVGO is the closest whereas AMD is pretty strong followed closely by TSM who are both well clear of their 200D MA.

Now look at what is considered the defensive play for tech - Apple. She has been rallying ahead in the meantime.

Now digest all that and look at the big picture. It is actually telling you a story. Earnings are coming up and funds usually de risk into them especially when they are well green on their positions. And some funds are tech oriented so they must stay within the tech world. Guess where they park their money while waiting? They need huge mega caps which are less volatile and won’t move that much with that much capital. The names doing well in the tech mega cap space are the chosen ones. Apple is the clear beneficiary being a tech stalwart yet not a hyperscaler.

If earnings shows that AI is doing well and hyperscalers are not cutting back while starting to monetise AI and forward guidance confirms, I am expecting high beta AI beneficiaries which have sold off to rally hard surprising many retails who are now bearish.

@Captain's Treasure

Apple is benefitting from rotating tech capital that are seeking refuge in the big cap which wants to stay in tech rather than deploying into defensive names outside of tech.

$Sandisk(SNDK.US)

This beauty has retreated from its ATH of 2354 to almost half its value in less than a month. Its funny how many were wishing for a better price but now we are here, those same ones are saying they are expecting even cheaper prices. Just a month ago, the price we are at now seems impossible.

And technical wise, I know many are looking at that head and shoulder pattern. Well if it is valid, the mega wave 2 23.6 retrace at 828 beckons and will be a fantastic price. However if this is a head fake, the snap back rally will be fierce and this might be a wave 4 of the mega wave 1 leading up to a wave 5 of 5 rally to cap the mega wave 1 before that mega wave 2.

@Captain's Treasure

The buying opportunity everyone is waiting for is here at last. Selling off because ‘spending more to meet demand’. Isn’t demand a good thing? The market is quite short sighted some times but then again narratives are just constructed to explain markets which actually do its own things.

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US)

If there is a moment of time when you wish for better prices so you can buy more, this is that moment.

AAOI might seem to have retreated a lot since its ATH but believe it or not, no major long term supports are broken and the long term bullish structure is very much intact.

The pull back has been a controlled descent characterised by overlapping candles and this wave best fits the C wave of a three wave pattern. Looks like a classical fourth wave. Price and time are coming together nicely. The wave looks complete to almost complete. Price has touched 38.2 retrace at 108. We are just above the previous high that price cleared with heavy volume.

I am expecting institutions to defend and accumulate at these levels.

Not financial advice. Just friendly sharing.

@Captain's Treasure

Tech capital is rotating from high beta into lower beta as they seek ‘safer pastures’ yet still remain within tech. These names have such a big market cap it’s easier to park there without moving their prices too much.

$ExxonMobil(XOM.US)

Let’s go through XOM’s technicals again especially after the SOH erupted again since my last post on her.

In all honesty, not much has changed to indicate that a rally is on the horizon although there is a set up for it.

Price has settled down off a three wave from the March top of 176.41. It is hovering above 200D MA comfortably and is capped at these levels. I believe it will need a catalyst to rally beyond 152 which looks like strong resistance at this point of time.

@Captain's Treasure

Looks like inflation is cooling (at least on data) and more evidence that capital is being shunted into AI related spendings first which shows the urgency and scarcity of supply.

French fries vs Spanish meatballs

Its the match up that most of us have been waiting for. This would have been an exciting final on itself. But looks like it is only one of this teams that will make it through to the finals.

France has Mbappe. Spain has Yamal. A good team always have an individual capable of making the difference.

France has an unsung hero though that Spain lacks. Saliba is a huge boulder in defence. And Spain lacks that defensive giant especially when they keep playing Simon in goalkeeper when they have a match winning keeper in Raya. Always make me wonder how they select their keeper.

So I believe France will edge Spain here by a tight margin.

@Captain's Treasure @Captain's Watch

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)

Its interesting to see many using the 200D MA as ‘proof’ that Gold has topped etc and that there is a trend reversal. Goes to show how many just conveniently take a well known support line and draw conclusions without taking other factors into account.

Yes the 200D MA has been breached. However it can be reclaimed as easily and technically gold has a beautiful 3 wave ABC off the top in between 23.6 and 38.2 retrace and just above a confluence of AVWAPs. Until that develops into a clear five wave pattern on increasing volume, this looks like the end of a fourth wave or the A of that fourth wave. The overall long term trend is still up. Weekly looks good.

Looks like a good spot to accumulate for the long term.

Not financial advice. As usual do your own due diligence.

@Captain's Treasure

What happens when I click on my investment app

The app loads and the first pop up is a warm greeting tailored to my liking sweet and simple with no fanfare.

The first data that comes up is a concise summary of how the portfolio did the previous day or compared to when I last viewed it along with what may have caused it to perform the way it did.

This is followed by a technical analysis summary of my holdings as well as a price action summary of the previous day and whether important supports have been breached.

The conclusion will be a nice breakdown of the percentages of the holdings in the portfolio vs cash and a risk management recommendation in view of the overall technicals as well as macroeconomics.

TLDR: The whole idea of AI is to simplify my thought process so as to enable me to focus on decision making.

@Captain's Treasure @Captain's Watch

The Fed needs to talk tough. They need the credibility especially when they have a new leader who needs to prove he is impartial and independent. That will allow them to cut rates, do QE or even yield curve control down the road. Especially if the necessary data allowing that filters in. It’s all part of the politics they play.