amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Markets whipsawed throughout the day as Iran headlines shifted. Premarket stocks turned sharply green after reports suggested the U.S. was open to unfreezing Iranian assets and offering sanctions relief, reversing the weakness from overnight futures. At the open, sentiment flipped after headlines said the U.S. was rejecting Iran’s latest proposal and preparing for possible military action. Oil and bonds moved higher while stocks sold off, before equities rebounded intraday after President Trump said he would delay attacks on Iran as Middle Eastern officials pushed for a possible deal.

2. 13Fs are out. Berkshire Hathaway opened new positions in $Delta Air Lines(DAL.US) and $Macys(M.US) while also increasing its $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) stake by 200%. Berkshire also sold their entire $Unitedhealth(UNH.US) position. Chase Coleman of Tiger Global bought $Macys(M.US)ELI, $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Intel(INTC.US), $Xanadu Quantum Tech - B(XNDU.US) and $Robinhood Ventures Fund I(RVI.US). Stanley Druckenmiller sold $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) and bought $Sandisk(SNDK.US), while the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation sold 100% of its $Macys(M.US)SFT position. Bill Ackman also sold Google and bought Microsoft. The top 10 buys last quarter across 80 of the largest institutional investors were $Macys(M.US)SFT, $Amazon(AMZN.US), $Macys(M.US)ETA, $Visa(V.US), $Sunbelt Rentals(SUNB.US), $Disney(DIS.US), $Uber Tech(UBER.US), $Adobe(ADBE.US), $Fiserv, Inc.(FISV.US), and $Waters(WAT.US).

3. SpaceX’s reported IPO plans continue to gain momentum, with the company expected to trade under the ticker $SPAC & New Issue ETF(SPCX.US) and potentially go public around June 12. Reports suggest SpaceX is targeting an $80 billion raise at roughly a $2 trillion valuation, with a focus on expanding retail access to international brokerages beyond just U.S. platforms. Meanwhile, $SPAC & New Issue ETF(SPCX.US) perpetual futures began trading on Hyperliquid at $208 per share, implying a valuation closer to $2.4 trillion — which would make it the largest IPO in history. Perpetual futures markets are increasingly being used to create liquidity and price discovery for private or non-liquid assets ahead of public listings.

4. OpenAI won its trial against Elon Musk, who argued the company “stole a charity” by transitioning toward a for-profit structure after he contributed tens of millions to help launch it. OpenAI’s defense said Musk was aware of and supported the for-profit plans early on, only opposing the company later after losing influence and starting rival AI firm xAI. The ruling appears to remove one of the biggest legal obstacles standing in the way of a potential OpenAI IPO.

5. Citi sees the server CPU market growing from $29.3 billion in 2025 to $131.5 billion by 2030, driven largely by the rise of agentic AI workloads. The bank expects the biggest growth category to be agentic CPU applications, forecasting the segment to grow at a 185% CAGR to $59.4 billion by 2030 — representing 45% of the total server CPU market. Citi’s projected 2030 market share breakdown is $Intel(INTC.US) at 47%, $AMD(AMD.US) at 34%, and ARM-based and other players at 19%.

6. Top option volume leaders today were led by $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.94 million total contracts traded, followed closely by $Tesla(TSLA.US) at 3.86 million. $Macys(M.US)SFT saw 1.12 million contracts, while $Apple(AAPL.US) traded 899K and $Amazon(AMZN.US) traded 762K contracts. Rounding out the top 10 were $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 701K contracts, $Macys(M.US)U with 657K, $Intel(INTC.US) with 655K, $Netflix(NFLX.US) with 445K, and $Macys(M.US)ETA with 441K total option contracts traded.

7. BofA reiterated $Netflix(NFLX.US) at Buy with a $125 price target, citing an expanding advertising opportunity. Analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich noted that Netflix’s ad-supported tier has grown to more than 250 million monthly viewers globally, up from 94 million last year. BofA expects ad revenue to rise from about $1.5 billion in CY25 to roughly $3 billion in CY26 as Netflix expands ad formats, pricing, personalization, and international availability. The firm also highlighted new placements across mobile vertical video and podcasts, along with plans to enter 15 additional ad markets.

8. President Trump will swear in Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the United States Federal Reserve on Friday. Kevin Warsh will be the wealthiest Fed Chair in history with an estimated net worth of $150M. He has publicly expressed support for crypto and believes AI will be deflationary.

9. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Nvidia invested in Decart as AI labs look for more flexibility across chips. Decart builds AI infrastructure software that helps developers run models across processors from Nvidia, Amazon, Google, and others. WSJ reports the startup raised $300 million at a nearly $4 billion valuation, led by Radical Ventures with participation from Nvidia. Its main product, the Decart Optimization Stack, helps developers move models between different hardware systems without rebuilding around each chip. Amazon is Decart’s biggest customer and has deployed its tech across Twitch, retail, and studios, while the company also builds real-time world models for interactive 3D environments.

10. OpenAI and $Dell Tech(DELL.US) are partnering to bring Codex deeper into enterprise infrastructure. Dell’s AI Factory and AI Data Platform help companies run AI workloads across hybrid and on-prem environments, and OpenAI is now connecting Codex into that stack. Codex already has over 4 million weekly developers and is used for code review, test coverage, incident response, and reasoning across large codebases. The next phase is broader enterprise agents that can gather context, prepare reports, route feedback, qualify leads, write follow-ups, and coordinate work across business systems.

11. $Macys(M.US)ETA is laying off 10% of it's staff. The layoffs are shaping up to be an AI-driven reorganization. An internal document says Meta will conduct layoffs globally in three batches at 4 a.m. local time, with North America employees told to work from home Wednesday. Leaders are also expected to announce broader organizational changes. Meta plans to move 7,000 employees into new AI workflow initiatives while eliminating some managerial roles. Reuters previously reported the May 20 wave would impact about 10% of Meta’s workforce.

12. The SEC is reportedly considering an “innovation exemption” that could allow tokenized stocks to trade on DeFi platforms. Bloomberg Law says the agency may permit third-party stock tokens even without approval from the public companies they track, meaning platforms could create tokens tied to names like $Apple(AAPL.US), $Tesla(TSLA.US), or $Amazon(AMZN.US) without issuer involvement. These tokens may trade outside parts of the traditional equity-market structure and may not include normal shareholder rights like voting or dividends. Platforms like $Robinhood(HOOD.US) and $Coinbase(COIN.US) along with Blackrock's Larry Fink have called for the eventual tokenization of everything.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

TRUMP:

- DELAYING OUR ATTACK ON IRAN

- MIDDLE EASTERN OFFICIALS TOLD ME THAT NEGOTIATIONS ARE TAKING PLACE FOR A DEAL

markets trying to pump off this

Source: amit

$Micron Tech(MU.US)

$818 to $668

who’s buying the dip?

Source: amit

OPENAI WINS THE TRIAL AGAINST ELON MUSK.

- Musk argued that OpenAI “stole a charity” by converting into a for-profit company after he donated tens of millions to help launch it.

- OpenAI’s defense claimed Musk knew about and supported the for-profit plans early on, and only turned against the company after losing influence and later starting his competing AI company, xAI.

Looks like OpenAI just cleared one of their biggest hurdles to going public.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) $SPAC & New Issue ETF(SPCX.US)

Source: amit

The Trump-Xi Summit honestly feels like they got nothing even remotely important accomplished.

- China will buy more Boeing Jets...okay, they do that every few years.

- China will buy more beef...thanks. Especially because they are just buying what they stopped buying a while ago.

- China will join the US to denounce North Korea being a nuclear powerhouse...lol, yes because China and the US both are going to try to seriously get NK to give up nukes. Makes sense.

The point of the summit, from my understanding, was for Trump to get Xi to convince Iran to stop the BS and sign a deal.

From all reports, Xi not only laughed at the US proposal, but he gave a counter proposal that Trump said hated, going as far to say that he "couldn't get through the first line of it."

In fact, the CCP only really wanted to talk about Taiwan, which obviously the US does NOT want to discuss.

Bond yields are *literally* exploding up, pacing their Feb 2025 highs because the escalation from Trump over the weekend and the lack of any progress with China makes the market think inflation will once again be the biggest issue this year as CPI and PPI are the hottest since 2022 and oil continues to be over $100.

Now, the market doesn't really care...because semiconductors continue to provide all the earnings growth...but I wonder if the market does start to care soon.

Just doesn't seem like we resolved anything with Iran in any meaningful way over the past week but hoping the ceasefire stays in place and military escalation isn't on the table.

Source: amit

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation sold 100% of their Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) position…

The guy who created Microsoft just had his foundation dump the entire stake, 7.6M shares.

Either he thinks Microsoft is over or he completely hates valuations in tech right now 😂

Source: amit

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY OPENS NEW POSITIONS IN $Delta Air Lines(DAL.US) DELTA AIRLINES AND $Macys(M.US) MACYS.

They added very heavily to their $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) position as well by increasing it by 200%.

Some pretty incredible moves being disclosed...looks like Berkshire thinks the consumer story around retail is overblown and that oil prices will come down to help airlines...also seems like they are doubling down on their Google position.

Source: amit

STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER SELLS $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) AND BUYS $Sandisk(SNDK.US) SANDISK IN RECENT 13F FILING

Well, looks like even some of the big guys are ditching their Mag 7s for the AI infrastructure plays…

Source: amit

SPACEX UPDATES:

- Ticker will be $SPAC & New Issue ETF(SPCX.US)

- IPO coming likely June 12th

- Company is focused on expanding retail coverage to international brokerages, not just US based ones

- Looking to raise $80B at around a $2T valuation

Are you a buyer?

I think many other names will be proxies and we are already seeing this with momentum in names like $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US).

It’s going to be a historic IPO, question will be where the liquidity comes for it…

Source: amit

So Ackman buys Microsoft…

I know the picks and shovels plays of the AI buildout are getting all the attention, but it does feel like you could open a brokerage account…

Buy $Meta Platforms(META.US) and $Microsoft(MSFT.US)…

And just not look at it for the next few years and be fine.

These companies are trading at historic discounts due to “Meta cannot do anything other than Ads” and “Microsoft is a software play so software should go down.”

They will not provide the same short term alpha but these are two of the greatest companies on the planet…doesn’t feel that scary taking a shot on them here.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. $Cerebras(CBRS.US) Cerebras opened about 75% above its expected IPO price of $185, giving the AI chip company a roughly $100B market cap despite generating $585M in revenue last year. Ark Invest also bought 105,616 shares just one day after the IPO, adding more attention to the name. The momentum is set to continue with LeverageShares launching a 2x leveraged Cerebras ETF tomorrow morning.

2. President Trump submitted his latest stock purchase and sale disclosures to the White House Office of Ethics, with the filing reportedly spanning more than 100 pages and including thousands of trades. The disclosure is notable because it shows a sitting president actively trading individual securities rather than only holding assets like corporate debt, index funds, or Treasuries. Some of the names listed as purchases include $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US), $Robinhood(HOOD.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Apple(AAPL.US), $Disney(DIS.US), $Visa(V.US), $Ulta Beauty(ULTA.US), $JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US), $Coinbase(COIN.US), $LYFT(LYFT.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US), and $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US).

3. The U.S. has approved around 10 Chinese companies to purchase Nvidia’s $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) H200, the company’s second-most powerful AI chip. Nvidia hit an all time high at $240 today.

4.Figure AI has been livestreaming its humanoid robots performing real warehouse-style package sorting tasks using its Helix-02 AI system. The robots pick up, scan, rotate, and place packages onto conveyor belts autonomously while operating for extremely long periods, including a reported 24/7 run after initially targeting an 8-hour shift. The livestream is meant to prove that humanoid robots can handle repetitive labor reliably and economically, rather than just perform flashy demos. Many viewers see it as one of the first convincing demonstrations of commercially viable humanoid labor, especially for warehouses and logistics. The robot has so far dealt with 34K packages live and has reached parity with a human worker that can do 3 every second.

5. The most traded stocks in the options market today were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 5.0M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.5M, $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) with 889K, $Ford Motor(F.US) with 860K, $Ondas(ONDS.US) with 849K, $Intel(INTC.US) with 814K, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 752K, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 736K, $Strategy(MSTR.US) with 670K, and $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 644K.

6. Semiconductor leverage flows surged, with $Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US), the 3x long semiconductor ETF, taking in a record $1.03B on Tuesday. At the same time, $Direxion Semicon Bear 3X(SOXS.US), the 3x short semiconductor ETF, saw $230M of outflows, its largest daily withdrawal since late March. $Proshares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ.US) also added $161M, its biggest inflow since March 31, but $Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US) inflows were more than 6x larger as traders concentrated bullish exposure in semiconductors. Since the March 30 bottom, $Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US) is up 354%, its strongest 31-day gain since launching in 2010, while the $SOX semiconductor index is up 68%, its third-best 31-day run on record.

7. Retail investors are buying stocks at one of the fastest paces in years. Year-to-date retail equity inflows are ahead of every comparable period over the last seven years except 2021, and after slowing briefly in March, retail buying jumped sharply in April. The week ending May 1 ranked in the top 2% of weekly retail inflows since 2019, and at the current pace, individual investor purchases could surpass the 2021 record as soon as July. Retail options activity is also elevated, with average daily volume now at 1.57x January 2024 levels, the highest since the October 2025 peak.

8. SpaceX could release its IPO prospectus as soon as next week, according to CNBC, after confidentially filing in April. The company’s roadshow is expected to start June 8, with SpaceX reportedly targeting one of the largest public offerings ever following its merger with xAI at a combined $1.25T valuation. The IPO could raise around $70B-$75B, which would be more than twice the size of Saudi Aramco’s record 2019 listing.

9. AI data center demand is putting pressure on power costs across PJM, the largest U.S. grid, which serves 67M people across 13 states and Washington, D.C. Wholesale power prices averaged $136.53/MWh in Q1 2026, up 75.5% from $77.78/MWh a year ago. Capacity costs rose 398.1% year-over-year, while congestion costs increased 300.4% to $2B.

10. Tech layoffs have now passed 100,000 in 2026, with TNW reporting cuts across roughly 250 events this year. LinkedIn is reducing headcount by about 5% despite 12% revenue growth, while Cloudflare is cutting more than 1,100 roles, or about 20% of its workforce. AI is becoming a major driver of the reset, with Challenger citing it as the top reason for job cuts in both March and April and linking AI to 49,135 announced layoffs so far this year.

11. President Trump said President Xi told him China will not supply military equipment to Iran and supports a peace agreement. Trump also said Xi offered to help mediate the situation and work toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global oil flows.

12. The CLARITY Act advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee today in a 15-9 bipartisan vote. The bill would create clearer federal rules for crypto, including when tokens are treated as securities versus commodities. Crypto stocks rallied on the news, including Coinbase, as investors viewed it as a major step toward regulatory certainty. The bill still is not law and needs full Senate approval, House reconciliation, and final passage. The main fights now are over stablecoin rewards, anti-money-laundering rules, and ethics concerns tied to political figures profiting from crypto. $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) Bitcoin passed $81,000.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$CRBS OPENS UP 75%

The expected price was supposed to be $185.

The company did $585M in revenue last year and now trades at a $100B marketcap.

Are you buying?

Source: amit

PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST SUBMITTED HIS STOCK PURCHASES/SALES TO THE WHITE HOUSE OFFICE OF ETHICS.

The document is over 100 pages and has thousands of trades.

This is one of the first times we've seen a sitting President actively trade securities and not just sit in corporate debt, index funds, or treasuries.

Here are some of the names that Trump bought:

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US), $Robinhood(HOOD.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Apple(AAPL.US), $Disney(DIS.US), $Visa(V.US), $Ulta Beauty(ULTA.US), $JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US), $Coinbase(COIN.US), $LYFT(LYFT.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US).

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joined President Trump’s China trip after receiving a last-minute invitation, increasing attention on the stalled H200 chip sales to China. Reuters reported that Trump called Huang after seeing reports that he had not been invited, and Huang later boarded Air Force One in Alaska. Nvidia hit an all time high today.

2. $Nebius(NBIS.US) Nebius reported Q1 revenue of $399M, ahead of the $388.6M estimate and up 684% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $129.5M, beating expectations of $90.5M, while ARR reached $1.92B, up 674% year-over-year and 54% quarter-over-quarter. For 2026, the company reaffirmed its target for year-end ARR of roughly $7B-$9B and raised its contracted power capacity outlook from more than 3GW to more than 4GW.

3. April PPI came in much hotter than expected, with headline producer prices rising 6% versus estimates of 4.9%. Core PPI also beat expectations, increasing 5.2% compared to the 4.3% forecast. This marks the highest producer inflation reading since March 2022.

4. Consumer credit stress is rising across major debt categories. In the U.S., 13.1% of credit card balances are now 90+ days delinquent, the highest level since 2011. Student loan delinquencies have climbed to 10.3%, the highest since 2020, while auto loan delinquencies reached 5.6%, the highest level on record.

5. Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve, taking over at a time when inflation is rising again, Americans remain frustrated with the economy, and the Fed’s independence is facing intense political pressure. The Senate confirmed Warsh to a four-year term on Wednesday in a 54-45 vote, with unanimous Republican support and only one Democratic vote in favor, from Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman.

6. Bank of America raised its AI data center systems forecast to $1.7T by 2030, up from its prior estimate of $1.4T, implying a 45% compound annual growth rate. The firm now expects AI accelerators to represent roughly $1.2T of that market, with AI networking reaching $316B as custom chips like Google’s TPUs and Amazon’s Trainium continue to scale.

7. $Ford Motor(F.US) Ford shares moved higher after Morgan Stanley said the company may announce energy storage supply agreements with large commercial customers, potentially including hyperscalers, within the next few months. Morgan Stanley estimates Ford Energy could be worth around $10B.

8. $Robinhood(HOOD.US) Robinhood released its April 2026 monthly metrics, showing continued growth across the platform. Funded customers rose to 27.6M, up 1.65M year-over-year, total platform assets increased 49% to $345B, and April net deposits reached $6.0B, implying a 29% annual growth rate. Trading activity also remained strong, with equity trading volume up 57% year-over-year to $249B, while the margin book more than doubled from $8.4B a year ago to $18.0B, showing customers are borrowing more to invest. Crypto was the weaker area, with volumes down 33% from March and Bitstamp volumes falling 46% month-over-month.

9. U.S. data center construction spending rose 34% year-over-year in March to a record annualized pace of $50B. Spending has now increased 437% since the start of 2021, when the annualized run rate was about $9B, and 688% since 2018, when it was roughly $6B. At the same time, office construction continues to weaken, falling 9% year-over-year to $46B, its lowest level since 2015.

10. $Cisco(CSCO.US) Cisco reported Q3 revenue of $15.8B, above estimates of $15.54B and up 12% year-over-year. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.06 versus estimates of $1.04, up 10% year-over-year. Product orders rose 35%, networking product orders were up more than 50%, data center switching orders increased more than 40%, and campus networking orders rose more than 25%. Cisco also raised its FY26 AI infrastructure order outlook to $9B from $5B and lifted expected AI infrastructure revenue to $4B from $3B.

11. U.S. leveraged ETF assets have climbed to a record $177B, up $45B since the March market bottom. Tech remains the dominant category, representing about 69% of total leveraged ETF AUM. Within that, technology-focused funds hold $65B, semiconductor funds hold $32B, and Magnificent 7 funds hold $25B, while S&P 500-linked leveraged ETFs account for another $24B.

12. Anduril raised $5B at a $60B valuation in the private markets. Anthropic raised $30B at a $900B valuation. The street now awaits Cerebras going public tomorrow, with estimates assuming a $40-$50B valuation and SpaceX this summer at $2T.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

KEVIN WARSH GETS APPROVED BY THE SENATE TO BE THE NEXT FED CHAIR.

He is entering into an economy with the highest oil prices since 2022, rising inflation, and a stock market that is running hot on what controls 50% of GDP growth — AI Capex.

Let the games begin.

Source: amit

APRIL PRODUCER PRICE INDEX:

Headline PPI +6% vs +4.9% expected

Core PPI +5.2% vs +4.3% expected

Highest PPI print since March 2022 🫠

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Stocks opened lower today as investors reacted to hotter inflation, rising oil prices, and renewed concerns around interest rates. The selloff was led by tech, AI, and semiconductor names, but the market recovered some of the early weakness into the close as buyers stepped back into select mega-cap and earnings-driven stocks. The S&P 500 $SPX still finished slightly lower, the Nasdaq $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) underperformed, and the Dow managed to close slightly higher, showing that the early risk-off move faded but did not fully reverse across the whole market.

2. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates in 2026 has surged to a new high of 31% after U.S. CPI inflation hit its highest level in three years. Just a few months ago, markets were pricing in more than three rate cuts this year, but those cuts have now been completely priced out. Headline CPI rose 3.8% versus 3.6% expected, marking the hottest inflation print since May 2023, while core CPI rose 2.8% versus 2.6% expected, the highest reading since September 2025. Energy was the biggest driver, accounting for more than 40% of the increase.

3. $CME(CME.US) CME Group is partnering with Silicon Data to launch the first futures market tied to compute, pending regulatory approval. The contracts are expected later this year and will be based on Silicon Data’s GPU market intelligence indices, giving traders, AI builders, cloud providers, and financial institutions a way to hedge price volatility in the fast-growing compute market.

4. Cerebras is reportedly seeing very strong IPO demand and has raised its planned range to $150-$160 per share, up from $115-$125, while increasing the offering to 30 million shares. At the high end, the company could raise about $4.8B and be valued around $35B, with pricing expected on May 13 and a Nasdaq listing under $Cerebras(CBRS.US). The IPO story is being driven by AI compute demand, Cerebras’ OpenAI relationship, and reports that the deal is more than 20x oversubscribed. The IPO will be this Thursday.

5. The top 10 most traded stocks in the options market were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.6M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 3.0M, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.0M, $Intel(INTC.US) with 999K, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 829K, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 528K, $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) with 499K, $Netflix(NFLX.US) with 494K, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 451K, and $AMD(AMD.US) with 436K.

6. OpenAI reportedly renegotiated its $Microsoft(MSFT.US) Microsoft agreement to limit total revenue-share payments to $38B, far below the roughly $135B Microsoft could have received under the prior structure if OpenAI hit its long-term revenue targets. The change could reduce OpenAI’s payments by about $97B through 2030, giving the company a cleaner long-term financial profile ahead of a potential IPO. The trade-off is that OpenAI may have to pay more in the near term, reportedly around $6B of its projected $30B in revenue this year instead of the roughly $4B it previously expected, while Microsoft keeps payment rights through 2030 and resale rights through 2032.

7. $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM.US) became the fastest ETF ever to reach $6.5B in assets, hitting that mark in just 36 days, even faster than $iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(IBIT.US), which took 43 days. The move came after a 13% jump on Friday and another $1B of inflows, showing how aggressively investors are chasing the memory trade. $Micron Tech(MU.US) also got a major vote of confidence as Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $1,000 after investor meetings with Micron management. The key takeaway was that AI is changing the memory cycle: DRAM, NAND, and HBM are becoming essential to AI performance, while supply remains constrained by clean room limitations, slower scaling, and HBM production trade-offs. Deutsche Bank said Micron is well-positioned because of its technology leadership, stronger business mix, and one of the healthiest balance sheets in company history.

8. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) Google is reportedly exploring SpaceX as a launch partner for future AI data centers in orbit, while also speaking with other rocket companies. The effort connects to Google’s Project Suncatcher, which is already planning to launch two prototype satellites with Planet by early 2027 to test solar-powered AI compute in space using TPUs and optical links. SpaceX is pursuing a similar orbital data center strategy, meaning the two companies could eventually work together on launches while competing to own the space-based compute market.

9. Market breadth is weakening even as the headline index keeps rising. Only 22% of S&P 500 stocks have beaten the index over the last 30 days, one of the weakest readings since 1996 and a sharp drop from 65% in February. The rally is increasingly concentrated in mega-cap tech, with the Magnificent 7 now making up about 35% of the S&P 500 and Information Technology plus Communication Services representing 46% of the index’s market value.

10. Anthropic is reportedly discussing a massive new funding round of at least $30B at a valuation above $900B, with Bloomberg saying the deal could close by the end of May, though no term sheet has been signed yet. Existing investors may participate, following recent commitments from Google and Amazon tied to a prior $350B valuation. The potential raise would mark a huge jump from Anthropic’s February 2026 valuation and place it near OpenAI’s latest reported valuation, as the Claude maker also reportedly considers an IPO as soon as October.

11. $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) Palantir was back in the defense AI spotlight after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with CEO Alex Karp in Kyiv to discuss expanding Ukraine’s use of AI in the war. Zelensky said the two sides discussed technology for both battlefield and civilian needs, while Ukraine’s defense team highlighted Palantir’s role in helping analyze air strikes, manage intelligence data, protect Ukrainian skies, and support AI tools for detecting and intercepting Russian drones. Palantir is also tied to the U.S. “Golden Dome” missile-defense push, with Reuters reporting that Palantir and Anduril are working on software for the system.

12. President Trump today said this before leaving for his trip to China: "You're going to see oil prices drop and you're going to see a stock market which is already at the highest point in history, go through the roof."

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR APRIL:

Headline CPI +3.8% vs +3.6% expected, hottest print since May 2023.

Core CPI +2.8% vs +2.6%, hottest print since September 2025.

Energy accounted for over 40% of the increase.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here’s a full recap:

1. The $SPX S&P 500 and $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs today, even with oil spiking and U.S.-Iran peace talks stalling. The market is basically saying AI earnings momentum is more important than geopolitical risk right now. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose 2.6%, with semis now comprising 17% of the S&P 500.

2. The optical networking trade continues to gain momentum. $Lumentum(LITE.US) Lumentum surged after being added to the Nasdaq 100, while peers like $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) Coherent and $Corning(GLW.US) Corning also benefited from the AI data center connectivity theme. This is becoming one of the clearest “picks and shovels” trades in AI infrastructure. $Lumentum(LITE.US) Lumentum’s move matters because the market is realizing AI is not just about GPUs. It is also about optical transceivers, lasers, fiber, switches, power, cooling, copper, glass, and every bottleneck inside the data center stack. The AI trade is expanding from chips into the entire physical infrastructure layer.

3. $Tesla(TSLA.US) Tesla was in focus after the White House invited Elon Musk, alongside more than a dozen top U.S. executives, to join President Trump’s trip to China this week. The delegation includes Apple’s Tim Cook, and BlackRock’s Larry Fink with other executives from Goldman Sachs, Cisco, Mastercard, Citi, Meta, Micron, and more. The trip is expected to focus on U.S.-China trade and investment, potential Boeing aircraft purchases, agriculture, energy, and possibly extending the rare earths truce, making Musk’s inclusion important given Tesla’s exposure to China manufacturing, demand, and supply chains. Jensen Huang $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) and Lisa Su $AMD(AMD.US) were not invited as per Reuters.

4. Oil jumped again as the U.S.-Iran situation remained unresolved, with Brent crude moving above $104 and the Strait of Hormuz risk still hanging over the market. This is the main bear case investors are watching: if oil keeps rising, inflation expectations can come back and pressure the Fed. CPI will be reported tomorrow with expectations of a 3.7% print, the highest in 2.5 years.

5. Per Jeffries: "47% of semis/hardware stocks are screening overbought on 14-day RSI (high was 70% in Dec '23, 66% on April 24) as of Friday's close. The SOX is now 60% above its 200-day moving average, a level not seen since March 2000 and July 1995."

6. Earnings season continues to come in strong. Reuters reported that 440 S&P 500 companies $SPX have reported, with 83% beating estimates and Q1 earnings growth now projected at 28.6% year-over-year. That is why the market keeps absorbing bad macro headlines.

7. $Cerebras(CBRS.US) Cerebras increased its planned IPO price range as investor demand for AI chip exposure remains extremely strong. The company is now looking to sell 30 million shares at $150 to $160 each, potentially raising up to $4.8 billion. The AI IPO window is officially open again.

8. $Circle(CRCL.US) Circle reported a 20% increase in quarterly revenue and reserve income to $694 million, helped by rising demand for USDC during a volatile period. USDC circulation grew 28% year-over-year to $77 billion, showing that stablecoins are becoming a bigger part of the financial infrastructure story.

9. The most traded options today were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 5.5M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 4.8M, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.1M, $Intel(INTC.US) with 1.0M, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.0M, $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) with 886K, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 637K, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 621K, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 591K, and $AMD(AMD.US) with 514K.

10. $Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) Hims & Hers reported Q1 revenue of $608M, up 4% YoY, with subscribers growing 9% YoY to nearly 2.6M. The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $2.8B-$3.0B, but profitability moved lower as gross margin fell to 65% from 73%, net loss was $92M, and adjusted EBITDA declined to $44M from $91M last year. Management said 2026 is a “defining year” as the company expands branded GLP-1 offerings, international markets, diagnostics, and technology infrastructure.

11. $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) AST SpaceMobile reported Q1 revenue of $14.7M and said it remains on track for full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150M-$200M. The bigger story is deployment: BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 are expected to launch in mid-June, BlueBird 11 through 33 are already in advanced production, and the company is targeting roughly 45 satellites in orbit during 2026. ASTS also received FCC authorization for commercial SpaceMobile service in the U.S., hit 98.9 Mbps peak data speeds from an in-orbit satellite to an unmodified smartphone, and ended the quarter with about $3.5B in cash

12. China is also in focus ahead of a Trump-Xi summit, with Chinese stocks $Alibaba(BABA.US) $Krne Csi China Internet(KWEB.US) $JD.com(JD.US) hitting an 11-year high and the yuan reaching a three-year peak. Investors are watching whether the U.S. and China could coordinate around trade, Iran, and global supply chains.

I used to do these recaps a year ago...have gotten a bit busy but looking to bring them back...would people like them at the end of the day? I use AI to help summarize the events but the real time (around 30-40 min daily) comes in curating the best headlines and including the relevant details. Happy to start it again if people want it back!

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

my general take on this question around fomo is pretty simple

“should I buy $Micron Tech(MU.US) at $800?”

well, if you buy it here and are not ECSTATIC to buy it 20-30% lower on a dip, then you should not give into the fomo

being on the sidelines of a trade is so much healthier than thinking you have to chase it

buying at ATHs means you are acknowledging that you want to be part of the story but the risk outweighs the reward so you HAVE to accept being ready to DCA

fomo happens when you buy something just to buy and then if it dips, you have no idea what you bought so you buy high sell low

any fomo buy should be rooted in accepting it is a chase and then being ready to average down in case it collapses

or, just don’t chase a name that you missed and be okay with missing it

it doesn’t have to be so mentally draining, there many opportunities in the market beyond the names that capture most attention and not being part of them AND not taking the risk of being part of them is okay

Source: amit

ELON WILL BE GOING TO CHINA WITH TRUMP THIS WEEK

$Tesla(TSLA.US) LOVES IT

+2.5%

Source: amit

TIMMY APPLE JUST PUMPED THE PRESIDENT’S BAGS

$Apple(AAPL.US) $Intel(INTC.US)

The US government is now up $45B on their Intel position.

Source: amit

absolutely wild Friday

semis took a literal 4-hour breather yesterday before coming back

software down again

and rocketlab literally going to the moon

bulls in control

$AMD(AMD.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US)

Source: amit

TRUMP:

“WE SHOT DOWN IRAN’S SHIPS, THEY FELL BEAUTIFULLY DOWN TO THE OCEAN LIKE A BUTTERFLY DROPPING TO IT’S GRAVE.”

didn’t know our President was a poet

looks like retaliation back and forth on the blockade but hopefully not major escalation

Source: amit

Software stocks today:

$ServiceNow(NOW.US) +5.7%

$Datadog(DDOG.US) +28.2%

$iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF(IGV.US) +3.6%

$Adobe(ADBE.US) +2.8%

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) +2.4%

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) +2.7%

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) +2.8%

$Salesforce(CRM.US) +3.2%

Semiconductor stocks today:

$Micron Tech(MU.US) -3.8%

$Sandisk(SNDK.US) -7.1%

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) -14%

$Intel(INTC.US) -2.8%

$Arm(ARM.US) -10%

$AMD(AMD.US) -3.7%

$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH.US) -1.9%

I think everyone is really waiting for a Semis to Software rotation, but I’m not sure we easily get one…

Do I think software is cheap? Yes. The software names like $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) $AppLovin(APP.US) $Datadog(DDOG.US) also proved great earnings.

Are the semiconductor names overextended? I mean, look at the charts. However, their earnings have also been INCREDIBLE.

It doesn’t feel YET like the market can have $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH.US) and $iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF(IGV.US) rally together, I think the only reason $iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF(IGV.US) is up is because $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH.US) is down.

But if they were to rally together…it would probably be net new capital coming into the broader market vs people selling their semis to buy software or selling software to buy semis.

Just one day, likely need much more data to see if a rotation is happening…

Are you buying software over semis here? Rotating? Adding on dips?

Source: amit