amit

OH. MY. GOODNESS.

CITADEL HAS BOUGHT A MAJORITY OF THE PUBLIC ASSETS FROM LEOPOLD'S SITUATIONAL AWARENESS FUND.

So...Citadel scares everyone on Tuesday about a surprise rate hike during FOMC that WE ALL KNEW was not going to happen...

On Wednesday, the entire market freaks out about the rate hike which causes the selling to compound on itself creating 50-70% drawdowns across the board in high beta semicondcutor names...

Which means Leopold who we now know had $45B of assets and was 400% LEVERED ends up being the sacrifice as he gets liquidated at what theoretically could be the bottom due to not having the margin requirements to keep solvent...

AND THE PERSON WHO CAUSED THE SELLOFF WITH THE RATE HIKE FEARS ENDS UP COMING IN TO BUY HIS ASSETS FOR 40 TO 50 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR.

By the way, Leopold is getting married this weekend. I think he wanted to make sure he wasn't getting margin called during his wedding.

A vet on wall street in Ken Griffin takes out the young new kid.

ABSOLUTE. CINEMA.

Source: amit

FINANCIAL TIMES: LEOPOLD ASCHENBRENNER'S SITUATIONAL AWARENESS SEEKS TO RAISE NEW CAPITAL

Leopold in his letter to investors on July 24th:

“PS. At times we call out opportunities that seem like a particularly good time to add funds, if you have been waiting for one."

- Leopold has approached investors and lenders for fresh capital after suffering sharp losses during the AI stock sell-off.

- The fund reportedly used leverage to amplify its concentrated AI bets, boosting gains during the rally but worsening losses as technology stocks reversed.

- Despite the recent damage, Situational Awareness was still up 439% net through the end of June following extraordinary first-half returns.

So, it looks like his fund is not blowing up but it obviously is experiencing pain. If Leopold is telling his investors that this is now a good time to put more money in as the opportunity is the best since early 2025, then the question simply becomes if he is right or not.

If he is, this might be similar to March of this year. If not, fresh money buying at these levels might only continue to experience the pain of the market going against the AI trade.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. The Fed held rates steady, as expected, but the decision came with 3 dissents in favor of a 25 bps hike from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Fed Chair Warsh said the move should not be viewed as a “pause,” arguing that markets have already made their judgment and the Fed now has 7–8 weeks of incoming data to assess. He said the June core CPI print did not materially change the decision, with the broader inflation trend now mattering more. Warsh also said the Fed is doing well on the employment mandate, though the AI-driven capex surge makes it harder to judge aggregate supply and demand.

2. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) reported Q2 2026 revenue of $60.8B, up 28% YoY, with advertising revenue rising 27% YoY to $59.4B. EPS fell 13% YoY to $6.18, while Reality Labs posted an operating loss of $4.62B. Daily active people increased 3% YoY to 3.60B, and Meta guided Q3 revenue to $61B–$64B. The stock is under pressure as investors focus on the EPS miss and continued AI infrastructure spending, with FY26 capex now expected at $130B–$145B. CEO Mark Zuckerberg said AI is already accelerating Meta’s core business, powering new products, and opening up new enterprise opportunities.

3. Robinhood $Robinhood(HOOD.US) delivered an exceptional Q2 2026, with revenue up 32% YoY to $1.31B, net income up 48% YoY to $573M, and adjusted EBITDA up 35% YoY to $741M. Transaction-based revenue grew 44% YoY to $776M, while total platform assets rose 32% YoY to $369B. Net deposits hit an all-time high of $21.7B, with $3B already in Robinhood Banking. Gold subscribers increased 39% YoY to 4.8M, with a record 17% attach rate, while ARPU rose 24% YoY to $187. Robinhood also bought back 4.4M shares in the quarter, lowered expense guidance, now has 13 business lines doing $100M+ ARR, and its Gold Card has reached 1M holders with $17B of annualized spend.

4. Retail investors sold a net $243M of single stocks yesterday, marking the largest one-day outflow since the COVID crash, according to Vanda Research.

5. Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) reported Q2 2026 revenue of $90.0B, adjusted EPS of $4.74, and operating income of $40.6B. Azure and other cloud revenue grew 43% YoY, while Microsoft Cloud revenue reached $59.3B and Intelligent Cloud revenue came in at $39.3B. Capex was $35.8B, reflecting continued AI infrastructure investment. CEO Satya Nadella said Azure revenue surpassed $100B for the first time this year, while Microsoft 365 Copilot reached more than 30M paid seats, showing growing enterprise adoption of Microsoft’s AI stack.

6. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar and board chair Bret Taylor reportedly addressed employees in an internal meeting on Wednesday, with Friar telling staff that July annualized recurring revenue was already higher than the entire Q2 level. The update appears aimed at reassuring employees that OpenAI’s business remains healthy as competition intensifies from Anthropic and a growing wave of open-source AI players.

7. SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US) is reportedly weighing acquisitions or a bid in the FCC’s July 2027 Upper C-band auction to secure terrestrial spectrum, per Semafor. The company is looking for airwaves that perform better in cities and dense areas, which could help Starlink compete more directly with $AT & T(T.US) AT&T, $Verizon(VZ.US) Verizon, and $AT & T(T.US)MUS T-Mobile. SpaceX has already bought $17B of EchoStar spectrum licenses, though its latest spectrum strategy remains fluid.

8. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.8M contracts, $AT & T(T.US)SLA with 2.3M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.7M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 905K contracts, $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) with 802K contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 654K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 631K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 615K contracts, and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 582K contracts.

9. JPMorgan says Korea’s equity market has gone through an intense deleveraging phase since mid-June, with the KOSPI now down nearly 40% from its June 22 peak. The firm says the selloff was amplified by leveraged ETF flows and hedge fund positioning unwind, but now believes the leveraged ETF unwind is complete and hedge funds are roughly 90% done deleveraging. While some residual selling may continue and investors remain cautious ahead of the FOMC and hyperscaler earnings, JPMorgan says Korea’s positioning setup now looks attractive on balance, supported by cheap valuations and earnings momentum.

10. U.S. senators are warning Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) against using Chinese memory chips from CXMT or YMTC, even for devices sold only in China. Lawmakers led by Jim Banks and Chuck Schumer urged Apple to abandon the talks, noting both chipmakers are on a Pentagon list of Chinese military companies, while YMTC is also on the Commerce Department’s Entity List. Senators warned that Apple qualifying the chips could pave the way for broader use later, and asked Apple to commit by August 21 not to use them while disclosing any technical information already shared. The pressure comes as the global memory market remains tight, with potential read-throughs for $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Sandisk(SNDK.US), and $SK Hynix(SKHY.US).

11. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) is not giving specific 2027 CapEx guidance, saying infrastructure planning remains highly dynamic as it builds for maximum capacity in 2026 and 2027, while keeping room to expand in 2028 and beyond. On AI, Meta said it is optimistic about meaningful growth across its AI businesses and expects to share more soon. The company also said it has received multiple offers to monetize its compute at a meaningful premium to cost, but believes selling intelligence will carry significantly higher margins than selling compute directly.

12. Korea’s government announced an emergency market meeting after the recent equity-market selloff, with the finance ministry also launching a 24-hour market monitoring system. The measures include new restrictions on leveraged ETF trading and caps on retail exposure to these products. Korean stocks have bounced on the news as policymakers move to stabilize markets.

I know it's very ugly out there. We all are going through it. It is the greatest show on earth for the reason: you just don't know what's going to happen next. Earnings are amazing so the selloff feels more structural and rooted in deleveraging/bad sentiment around AI vs the entire AI trade itself not being real or having strong fundamentals. Some valuations really got aggressive and the unwind has taken everything down along with the war being a really ugly headwind for the entire market. Stay strong, make sure you aren't too levered, and remember that the broader markets have seen worse and will persist through this.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

MICROSOFT Q2 2026 EARNINGS:

- Revenue $90.0B

- Adjusted EPS $4.74

- Azure & Other Cloud Revenue, +43% YoY

- Microsoft Cloud Revenue $59.3B

- Intelligent Cloud Revenue $39.3B

- Operating Income $40.6B

- Capital Expenditures $35.8B

CEO Satya Nadella:

“We are advancing the frontier on the cost-to-outcome curve, ensuring every customer can turn tokens into business results. This year, Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, and Microsoft 365 Copilot reached over 30 million paid seats, reflecting the confidence customers are placing in us to power their AI transformation.”

Source: amit

$Meta Platforms(META.US)

META Q2 2026 EARNINGS:

- Revenue $60.8B, +28% YoY

- Advertising Revenue $59.4B,+27% YoY

- Reality Labs Operating Loss -$4.62B

- EPS $6.18 -13% YoY

- Daily Active People 3.60B +3% YoY

- Q3 Revenue Guidance $61B-$64B

- FY26 Capital Expenditures $130B-$145B

CEO Mark Zuckerberg:

“AI is accelerating our core business today, powering our next generation of products, and opening the door to entirely new enterprise opportunities. The results are already showing, and I'm optimistic about the potential ahead.”

Stocks taking a hit seemingly on the EPS miss and continuing spend on capex.

Source: amit

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) just left capex unchanged for 2026 and said they will continue to remain FCF positive

+8%

the street hates capex 😂😂😂😂

question is if Microsoft is giving up marketshare if the don’t increase capex…

or if they don’t need to increase it because it won’t slow down growth…then do the other hyperscalers follow and also start to be more efficient on capex?

Source: amit

$Robinhood(HOOD.US)

ROBINHOOD Q2 2026 EARNINGS:

- Revenue $1.31B, +32% YoY

- Transaction-Based Revenue $776M +44% YoY

- Net Income $573M +48% YoY

- Adjusted EBITDA $741M +35% YoY

- Net Deposits $21.7B, all time high

- Robinhood Gold Subscribers 4.8M, +39% YoY

- Total Platform Assets $369B +32% YoY

- ARPU $187, +24% YoY

- Bought back 4.4M shares in the quarter

CEO Vlad Tenev:

"Whether it's the Robinhood Chain, Robinhood Ventures, or Trump Accounts, our product velocity is focused on one goal: making everyone an owner. Broad ownership is essential to a free, stable, and prosperous society."

This was an exceptional quarter by Robinhood. Lowered expense guidance and grew every single part of the business. They now have 13 lines of business doing $100M in ARR and they have a 17% attach rate on gold subscribers, the highest they've ever had. Net deposits at $22B in three months is absolutely incredible (their highest ever) with $3B already in Robinhood Banking. Robinhood's gold credit card now has 1M holders and seeing $17B of annualized spend.

The future of finance is being led by Robinhood.

Source: amit

$SoFi Tech(SOFI.US)

SOFI Q2 2026 EARNINGS:

- Adjusted Net Revenue $1.2B +40% YoY

- Net Income $157M

- Adjusted EBITDA $358M +44% YoY

- Total Loan Originations $14.8B record

- Members 15.8M +35% YoY

- Products 24.4M +42% YoY

CEO Anthony Noto:

“2026 is shaping up to be a defining year, and our second quarter results mark a clear inflection point for SoFi. Despite continued market uncertainty, our business model continues to prove its durability. For the first time, we added twice as many products as members, a major milestone that underscores the trust members place in SoFi.”

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. SK Hynix $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $54.6B vs $57.7B expected, up 257% YoY and 51% QoQ, while operating profit came in at $41.6B vs $44.2B expected, up 557% YoY. Operating margin hit a record 76%, with gross margin at 83% and EBITDA of $44.4B, or an 81% margin. Pricing remained extremely strong, with DRAM ASP up ~30% QoQ and NAND ASP up mid-50% QoQ, while Q3 guidance calls for DRAM bit growth of about 10% QoQ and NAND bit growth in the low-single digits. SK Hynix also said HBM4 shipments began in Q2 with a full ramp planned in 2H, while HBM4E samples were supplied to a major customer in 1H. Net profit surged to $64.6B, boosted by $43.5B of investment-asset gains, meaning net income exceeded revenue due to $42.8B of non-operating profit.

2. The Trump administration is proposing a change that would allow the FAA to waive certain environmental review requirements for commercial launch sites, rocket launches, and spacecraft reentries, according to WSJ. The move could speed up approvals as annual launches and reentries are expected to rise from 214 this fiscal year to more than 500 over the next decade. SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US), Rocket Lab $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US), Blue Origin, and Stoke Space could benefit, though the proposal still has to go through public comment.

3. U.S. Central Command said IRGC forces launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran today in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East. CENTCOM said all Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted and that U.S. forces remain on high alert and ready to respond. Oil was up 5% after hours on the news even though it went down 4% today on earlier reports that Egypt, Qatar, and Pakistan were working to bring back the original MOU between the US and Iran. No updates on that original MOU coming back are in place yet, but the attacks after hours showcased further escalation.

4. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.4M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 1.7M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 820K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 750K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 737K contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 573K contracts, $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) with 558K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 495K contracts, and $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 461K contracts.

5. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang reportedly met with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as Nvidia faces growing scrutiny over China chip exports, per Axios. The meeting comes while the Commerce Department investigates potential violations tied to Nvidia’s Blackwell shipments to China, though the details of their discussion were not disclosed. Huang is also meeting with lawmakers from both parties as Washington prepares a broader AI framework covering advanced models, open-source AI, and China, expected by August 1.

6. OpenAI and Anthropic are reportedly lobbying the Trump administration ahead of an August 1 deadline for deciding which frontier AI models should face government evaluation, per The Information. The companies want rival models from players like Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) and SpaceXAI included as well. Qualifying models could be subject to review at least 30 days before release if they raise cybersecurity or national-security concerns. OpenAI and Anthropic are also warning about Chinese open-source models allegedly built in part using their outputs, citing privacy, IP theft, and cybersecurity risks.

7. Moonshot AI is reportedly looking for more Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Blackwell chips as it discusses Kimi K4, a model expected to be significantly larger than its 2.8T-parameter Kimi K3, per The Information. K3 was reportedly trained partly in China using Blackwell chips accessed through multiple Chinese cloud providers, with Moonshot linking separate 8-chip servers across providers and data centers because no single provider had enough capacity. Inference is now another constraint, with Moonshot pausing new subscriptions within 48 hours of launch as demand overwhelmed capacity. The company reportedly uses Nvidia H20 chips for inference and recommends at least 64 chips to host K3. The report also says Alibaba trained its 2.4T-parameter Qwen3.8-Max using Nvidia chips, including Blackwell.

8. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said a compute oversupply could emerge within 2 years if AI models become efficient enough to handle most tasks while human attention becomes the real bottleneck. He also said oversupply risk could rise if the industry hits a scaling wall and costs stop falling, making additional compute less economically attractive.

9. Bloom Energy $Bloom Energy(BE.US) crushed Q2’26 earnings, with revenue rising 166% YoY to $1.07B vs $827.6M expected and adjusted EPS jumping 680% YoY to $0.78 vs $0.41 expected. Product revenue surged 215.4% YoY to $935.4M, while adjusted gross margin expanded 604 bps to 34.3%. Bloom also raised FY26 guidance, now expecting revenue of $3.9B–$4.2B vs $3.73B expected and adjusted EPS of $2.55–$2.85 vs $2.16 expected. Management said all major U.S. hyperscalers, plus over a dozen neoclouds, AI labs, and data center operators, have approved Bloom’s power solutions for AI factories, calling Bloom a new standard for AI onsite power.

10. ADP data shows U.S. private hiring has slowed for the fifth straight week, averaging just 15,000 jobs per week through July 11, less than half the 35,750 weekly pace seen in early May. At the same time, Visa $Visa(V.US) is reportedly cutting 7% of its workforce, or about 2,600 jobs, adding to signs that labor-market momentum is cooling.

11. Retail investors are leaning heavily into Big Tech upside, with call options on U.S. Big Tech stocks now making up roughly 55% of all new retail options positions on a 20-day average basis, near the highest level on record. This tracks newly opened call positions, not total volume, making it a clearer read on directional retail bets. The figure is up 10 percentage points since the late-March market bottom, compared with a 57% peak during the 2020 pandemic rebound and a 35% low during the 2022 bear market.

12. Every component in the semiconductor index $SOX is now trading below its 50-day moving average for the first time since April 2025, a sharp reversal from early June when all 30 members were above that level. The SOX is down 18.9% so far in July, putting it on pace for its worst monthly decline since 2008, and now trades 11% below its 50-day moving average, the widest gap since March 30. Despite the pullback, semis remain up 63% YTD. Meanwhile, the semiconductor ETF $SMH has seen $1.3B of outflows month-to-date, tracking toward its second-largest monthly outflow on record.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$SK Hynix(SKHY.US) SK Hynix missing earnings was not what we needed today in an already high levered memory trade lol

to be fair, the misses were a few billion on revenue and operating profit and had nothing to do with demand as both metrics are still up 2.5x and 5.5x YoY

unfortunately taking down the other memory names after hours $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US)

oil hitting $83 afterhours as we head into FOMC...just ugly headlines back and forth now

july has exhausted everyone 😂

Source: amit

US CENTRAL COMMAND:

- IRGC forces launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces based in the Middle East today

- All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted.

- US forces remain vigilant and at a high state of readiness

Well, whatever reports that we had earlier today about the MOU coming back and negotiations starting again might have to take a breather until we get some meaningful updates on around negotiations.

This is the first attack in 3 days after both sides stopped for the weekend.

Oil +5%

Source: amit

how much of this dump today is Citadel scaring everyone into thinking we get a hike tomorrow 😂

their logic is that the Fed needs to hike to establish credibility

i thought Warsh’s plan was reforming the fed with the creation of task forces to develop a better source of truth in order to legitimize credibility

not hiking rates when oil, which is the majority of the reason for inflation, can fall 20% instantly if Trump gets a peace deal done

i mean oil is literally down 15% from Friday just off rumors that a ceasefire could be back

would be quite funny if we pump tomorrow and Citadel bought a ton of stock today only to benefit from everyone chasing the rally on a pause

does anyone think we hike tomorrow?

Source: amit

REUTERS:

- Mediators say a proposal to revive the US-Iran MOU is close, but awaits Trump’s decision after speaking to Israel today

- Pakistan, Egypt, and Qatar are involved in advancing a plan to clarify disagreements

- Iran and Oman have already approved the proposal which would allow negotiations to begin again

Trump went on Fox this morning and said he doesn’t want to start bombing plants/ bridges and also said Iran wants a deal.

Oil just fell below $80. The 10-yr is now at 4.5%.

The US was supposed to strike Friday but Trump shut down those attacks.

If there was ever a moment for Trump to really pivot and get back to a path to ceasefire/peace deal, it would be now. If this meeting ends up going well with Netanyahu today then maybe we get some clarity on the Iran situation and the market taking oil and the 10yr down is them pricing in that the worst may have happened, stocks will follow on actual confirmation. Reports of a Fed hiking soon might also be part of the reason Trump wants to resolve the situation. A Fed Hike and increased war intensity would be horrible for inflation.

Maybe this time Trump actually de-escalates, as much as it hurts to believe that this time could be different, all the ingredients are there for Trump to actually pivot and make sure inflation becomes more tame by negotiating an actual peace deal.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Semis $SMH fell about 2.5% today as the market reacted to a mix of China supply-chain headlines and growing AI financing concerns. A Chinese state-backed firm has reportedly started mass-producing domestic DUV lithography machines, raising fears that China could become less reliant on Western suppliers like ASML and pressure future equipment demand. At the same time, Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) reportedly backstopping OpenAI’s new data center buildout with $250B, along with another $5B investment into a new AI startup, is adding to concerns that parts of the AI trade are becoming too circular. China also just completed its second-largest IPO ever through a memory company, which is feeding worries that memory supply could expand just as pricing may be nearing a peak.

2. Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) CEO Alex Karp kicked off the company’s first Sovereignty Bootcamp, bringing together 150+ customers to discuss sovereign AI and enterprise ownership of AI-driven value. Karp said companies should not pay for AI tools only to have their business replicated by the provider, arguing that enterprises need to own what they produce. He called sovereign AI “the most important thing in AI,” framing it as the next major wave of the AI revolution. He also said: "You can’t be paying someone and then your reward is that they get to replicate your business. It’s absolutely crazy. We think there is an alternative way of doing this that actually creates more value for an enterprise."

3. Citadel Securities reportedly expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 bps on Wednesday, per Bloomberg. The firm thinks markets may be underpricing a more hawkish Fed pivot and says a surprise hike would reinforce the central bank’s inflation-fighting credibility. Interest-rate swaps currently imply about a 40%chance of a move this week, with one full hike priced by September. Citadel says the recent jump in energy prices could be enough to push the Fed toward acting immediately.

4. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) announced the Open Secure AI Alliance, bringing industry leaders together to build open tools for securing software and AI agents. Jensen Huang said, “Attackers have frontier AI. Defenders need a frontier AI ecosystem.” Nvidia is arguing that open models and security tooling should be viewed as defensive infrastructure, not a liability. The company warned that broad restrictions on open frontier AI could weaken cyber defenses, increase reliance on a small group of closed providers, and concentrate too much power. Nvidia is calling for shared investment in open AI defense systems, including datasets, evaluation frameworks, attack simulators, and red-teaming tools.

5. BlackRock $BlackRock(BLK.US) raised $12.5B of debt to help finance Meta’s $Meta Platforms(META.US) nearly 1GW AI data center campus in El Paso, Texas. The 2048 notes priced at 287.5 bps over 10-year Treasuries and drew about $20B in demand, or roughly 1.6x the deal size. BlackRock-backed entities own 80% of the project, while Meta owns the remaining 20%. The financing is backed by Meta’s long-term lease commitments, allowing the data center debt to stay off Meta’s balance sheet.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 4.8M contracts, $AT & T(T.US)esla(TSLA.US) with 2.6M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.8M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 700K contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 654K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 636K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 629K contracts, and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 552K contracts.

7. Trump said the U.S. paused strikes on Iran to give negotiations another chance, per Axios. He warned that the U.S. could still return to “very strong military action” if talks break down, adding that diplomacy will not get much time. Discussions are reportedly centered on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting broader nuclear talks, with Trump set to meet Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Tuesday.

8. Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US) has filed with the FCC to launch 5,105 satellites by 2028 for a direct-to-device mobile network, per FT. The service would support voice, messaging, data, and emergency connectivity beyond traditional cell-tower coverage. Amazon plans to use spectrum tied to its $11.6B Globalstar deal, putting it more directly up against SpaceX’s Starlinkin satellite-enabled mobile services.

9. Foreign buying of U.S. equities has surged to a record $850B over the last 12 months, more than quadrupling since the start of 2025. That is also roughly 450% above the average since 2000. As a share of total equity market cap, foreign purchases are now around 1.3%, the highest since the post-Financial Crisis recovery in 2010 and above the 2021 meme-stock peak of roughly 1.1%.

10. AT&T $AT & T(T.US) is expanding its use of D-Wave Quantum $D-Wave Quantum(QBTS.US) across network operations through a new agreement focused on complex optimization problems. In early testing, AT&T said D-Wave’s annealing quantum technology reduced one network optimization workload from roughly one hour to under 15 seconds. The initial rollout will focus on integrating D-Wave into AT&T’s agentic AI tools for outage detection, technician routing, network planning, traffic management, and response. AT&T said those tools helped reduce customer downtime by 12M hours in 2025. The company is also evaluating D-Wave’s gate-model systems for quantum security and communications, with financial terms not disclosed.

11. BofA says the selloff in European semiconductors has created a compelling entry point. The firm notes the SOX has underperformed the S&P 500 by roughly 18% from its peak, similar to past corrections like the 2015 China slowdownand the 2018 China-U.S. trade/Fed hiking cycle, but still less severe than prior downturn drawdowns near 30%. BofA argues fundamentals remain strong, with the sector trading at about a 3x discount to average 2028 consensus multiples, while semiconductor capital equipment names are trading at a 6x–7x discount. BofA also says fears of a memory pricing crash look overdone, while expecting ASM Q2 EPS to beat consensus by 11% and keeping its 2027–2028 EPS estimates for ASML 6%–7% above consensus.

12. South Korea’s KOSPI fell as much as 8% early in trading, triggering a circuit breaker, which temporarily pauses trading to slow panic selling and give the market time to reset. The move is heavily tied to memory stocks, with Samsung and SK Hynix making up roughly half the index and both acting as major memory-cycle trades.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

This is turning into of the worst days for Semis all year.

Market seems to be reacting to a few things:

- A Chinese state-backed company has started mass-producing its own DUV lithography machines. The market is worried that the development could reduce China’s dependence on Western suppliers like ASML and weigh on future equipment demand

- NVDA backstopping OpenAI’s new datacenter buildout with $250B is making the market think that things are getting a bit too circular

- NVDA investing $5B into a new AI startup once again is creating fears of circular financing

- China just had their second largest IPO ever and it was a memory company which is now making the market think that oversupply of memory and a peak in prices is underway

Trump tried to calm down markets by saying that the US and Iran are talking, which got Oil down 7%, but isn’t really helping the chip stocks. Usually, a drop on oil that big would explode high beta names like semis but the market seems to be taking the China buildout threat seriously.

Effectively, the market is saying that China supply coming through means the constraints that create the pricing/earnings power for the semis is diminishing. I’m not sure if this is actually true, especially given how new these reports are, but it goes to show how fragile the entire semi trade is if a headline like this can wipe out $500B+ from the entire sector today.

As always, if semis go down hard, the software names go up which is why software is rallying heavy today.

Are you buying the semi dip or is this a legitimate concern?

$Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US)

Source: amit

Futures are up, bitcoin is up, and oil is down because of reports that the US and Iran have stopped strikes against each other for the time being.

Trump was supposed to strike on Friday but ordered the military not to, and as a result Iran's retaliation was stopped because there wasn't anything to retaliate to.

I am not sure if this is a sign of actual progress that can lead to something meaningful, but if there was ever a time for some type of ceasefire, it would be when...

- The 10-yr passed 4.7%

- Oil was up 25% in a month

- The sector responsible for the majority of the S&P 500's earnings growth (SMH) was down 16%

- Rate hike probabilities passed 75% for October

- US national gas prices passed $4/gallon again

Any escalation would just lead to more inflation and uncertainty for stocks which obviously wouldn't be the best for the broader economy.

The big headline on Friday was that China talked to Trump and assured him they would never sell weapons to Iran while others reported that China is actually trying to secure a peace deal between Iran and the US.

Maybe there is some truth to this given Trump responded to a reporter on Friday and said, "we are talking to them, maybe there won't be a tipping point, maybe there will be," implying that there might be more talks happening that are positive even though every set of talks recently has not resulted in anything closer to peace.

Big earnings this week with $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Robinhood(HOOD.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) $Reddit(RDDT.US) $Visa(V.US) $UPS(UPS.US) $Mastercard(MA.US) and more along with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. It will be Kevin Warsh's second meeting as Fed Chair.

Hoping we get some relief as more escalation would really just create an ugly environment for inflation, risk on assets, and the potential for rate cuts.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US) was down 14% today, its worst day since January 2024, while Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) was down 7% after posting its first negative free cash flow quarter since 2004. The macro backdrop is not helping either. Crude oil has pushed back above $90/barrel for the first time since June and is up 25% over the past month. At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield has crossed 4.7%, while jobless claims came in at 187K vs 211K expected, showing a stronger labor market but also raising concerns that inflation pressure could persist. Today was the worst day for the Mag 7 since April 2025 with all 7 stocks erasing $800B of market cap.

2. AMD $AMD(AMD.US) CEO Lisa Su said at the AMD Advancing AI event today that the AI accelerator market could grow to $1.4T by 2030, within a broader compute market expected to reach $2T. She also noted that monthly AI token consumption has surged 158x over the past two years, underscoring how quickly compute demand is scaling. AMD unveiled Helios, its new rack-scale AI system built around the MI450 accelerator, which Su called the fastest AI accelerator in the industry. Helios is now in full production, with shipments expected to start at the end of Q3 and ramp through Q4.

3. Intel $Intel(INTC.US) posted a strong Q2, with revenue of $16.1B vs $14.5B expected, up 25% YoY, and adjusted EPS of $0.42 vs $0.22 expected. Adjusted gross margin came in at 41.8% vs 39% expected, up 1,210 bps YoY, while non-GAAP operating margin reached 17.2% vs 10.7% expected. Segment results were strong across the core business, with CCPG revenue up 13% YoY to $8.9B, DCAI revenue up 59% YoY to $6.3B, total Intel Products revenue up 28% YoY to $15.1B, and Intel Foundry revenue up 31% YoY to $5.8B. Management said Q2 marked Intel’s strongest revenue growth in more than 15 years, driven by better execution, higher factory yields, improved cycle times, and stronger customer demand.

4. Trump warned that the U.S. will hold Iran responsible if the Houthis resume attacks on commercial shipping. He said the Houthis had acted “responsibly” after previous U.S. strikes, but are now “starting up again” after reportedly firing on two Saudi Arabian ships last night. Trump said the Houthis are a proxy of Iran, and that any further attacks would trigger major military punishment against both Iran and the Houthis.

5. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is committing $1.5B to Amkor $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US) through a prepayment tied to a multi-year advanced packaging and development agreement. The funding will help Amkor expand U.S. packaging capacity at its Arizona campus as both companies work on next-generation packaging and test technologies for AI and accelerated computing. The partnership will focus on high-density interconnects and heterogeneous integration, which are key for combining multiple chips and components into more powerful systems.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 3.6M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.4M contracts, $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 994K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 940K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 917K contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 732K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 706K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 664K contracts, $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) with 560K contracts, and $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 532K contracts.

7. South Korea is moving to tighten rules around leveraged single-stock ETFs and ETNs beginning July 31. Retail investors will now need about $20,300 in cash to open or add to a position, up from roughly $6,800 previously. The key change is that stocks, bonds, and other securities will no longer count toward the deposit requirement, making it harder for retail traders to access these leveraged products.

8. U.S. mortgage rates rose for the third straight week, with the average 30-year fixed climbing to 6.58%, putting rates back near their highest level in a year.

9. AMD $AMD(AMD.US) and Cerebras $Cerebras(CBRS.US) are teaming up on a disaggregated AI inference architecture that divides workloads between both platforms. In the setup, AMD Helios manages prompts and long-context processing, while Cerebras’ Wafer-Scale Engine focuses on ultra-low-latency token generation. The companies say the combined system can deliver up to 5x more tokens per second per watt than Cerebras alone, with initial availability expected through Cerebras Cloud in the second half of 2026.

10. Uber $Uber Tech(UBER.US) cut 10% of roles in its customer service operations as it restructures the division and leans further into AI. The company said fragmented workflows were making it harder to roll out AI at scale, and this marks Uber’s first layoff round specifically tied to AI-driven efficiency.

11. SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US) is reportedly turning away satellite operators looking for dedicated Falcon 9 launches beyond 2028 as the company shifts more of its long-term launch strategy toward Starship, per Bloomberg. SpaceX has also stopped taking future Falcon 9 rideshare reservations and has paused production of some expendable Falcon components, though Falcon 9 is still expected to remain active for NASA and Pentagon missions. The risk is timing: if Starship is not commercially ready by 2028, the market could face a major launch-capacity gap, creating a bigger opening for competitors like Rocket Lab, Blue Origin, and ULA.

12. Meta’s $Meta Platforms(META.US) new $12B Texas data center financing, tied to a nearly 1GW project, is reportedly being discussed at yields above 7%. That is roughly 40 bps higher than Meta’s $27B Hyperion financing from just nine months ago, adding about $48M in annual interest expense. Hyperion bonds are now trading around 96 cents on the dollar, showing how financing costs for massive AI infrastructure projects are starting to move higher.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

Does anyone think the Mag 7 and the Semiconductors can participate together in a bull market?

In 2026, the market has obviously been extremely selective.

For the Semis (cap-ex beneficiaries) to do well, the market has taken down the Mag 7 (cap ex spenders) the entire year.

When the Mag 7 were doing well over the past few weeks, the Semis were going down.

Do they all go up together at some point or for the next few years, will the market continue to be selective with capital allocation to one sector over the other?

Source: amit

Crude Oil has just surpassed $90/barrel for the first time since June, now up +25% in the past month.

At the same time, the 10-year treasury yield has now officially crossed 4.7%.

Jobless claims came in at +187K today vs +211K expected which is great for the labor market but once again means that inflation could see some upwards pressure.

This type of price action with oil and treasury yields just isn't something the Fed or the stock market loves to see.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Alphabet $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) delivered a massive Q2 2026, with revenue up 24% YoY to $119.8B and operating income rising 30% YoY to $40.8B. Search revenue grew 17% YoY to $63.3B, while Google Cloud had its fastest growth quarter ever, surging 82% YoY to $24.8B and producing $8.8B of operating income. Net income jumped 298% YoY to $112.1B. On the AI side, the Gemini app reached 950M monthly active users, and Gemini models are now processing 22B API tokens per minute. The one major drag was free cash flow, which turned negative at -$5.8B, marking Google’s first negative FCF quarter in years. Still, this was the company’s strongest revenue acceleration in 3 years, driven by explosive cloud growth and rising AI usage.

2. AMD $AMD(AMD.US) and Anthropic have reportedly signed an AI server deal worth tens of billions of dollars, per WSJ. Under the agreement, Anthropic would buy up to 2GW of AMD’s latest-generation Instinct MI450 chips beginning in the first half of 2027. AMD also plans to invest up to $5B in Anthropic as deployment milestones are reached, and is reportedly discussing a potential financial backstop for Anthropic’s future data center leases. The deal marks another major push by AMD to deepen its AI infrastructure footprint and compete more directly with Nvidia.

3. President Trump said the U.S. will respond to any Iranian attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz by bombing and destroying one Iranian bridge or power plant each time it happens. Trump said the policy applies “from this point forward” and could include infrastructure located near or inside Tehran.

4. Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US) reported a mixed Q2, with revenue beating at $28.24B vs $26.32B expected, up 26% YoY, but profitability coming in weaker as adjusted EPS was $0.33 vs $0.51 expected, gross margin was 16.8% vs 19.4% expected, and operating margin fell to 1.4% vs 5.4% expected. Automotive revenue grew 23% YoY to $20.52B, deliveries rose 25% YoY to 480,126, production increased 10% YoY to 451,758, and free cash flow was -$1.09B, better than the -$3.25B estimate. Tesla ended the quarter with $43.52B in cash and investments, while GAAP net income was $1.11B, helped by a $1.01B unrealized gain on its SpaceX investment. The bigger story was AI and autonomy: Cybercab production began at Gigafactory Texas, Robotaxi is now operating across seven major U.S. metros, active FSD subscriptions reached 1.48M, up 56% YoY, and more than 55% of new North American deliveries included an FSD subscription. Tesla also said Optimus production lines are being installed for expected production in 2026.

5. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on fears around Kimi K3, DeepSeek, and China’s open-source AI models, saying U.S. companies should be allowed to use them because developers can download, fine-tune, and guardrail the models themselves. Huang said Chinese open-source models are “excellent” and argued the market misunderstood DeepSeek the first time and is now misunderstanding Kimi. His broader point is that strong open models should expand overall AI usage, not hurt closed models, and that more AI usage ultimately means more Nvidia systems, more data centers, and more demand for accelerated compute.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 5.1M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.2M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 844K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 828K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 803K contracts, $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) with 746K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 745K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 722K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 548K contracts, and $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 540K contracts.

7. Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) raised its FY26 capex outlook to $195B–$205B, up from $180B–$190B, as the company pulls forward capacity to keep up with stronger demand. Google said only a small portion of revenue from existing TPU system sales agreements is expected to be recognized in 2026, with most of it flowing through in 2027. Because of supply constraints, Google also plans to lean more on third-party capacity in Q3 as a temporary bridge, which could create some modest near-term margin pressure.

8. ServiceNow $ServiceNow(NOW.US) delivered a strong Q2, beating on revenue, EPS, cRPO, and operating margin while raising its FY26 outlook. Total revenue came in at $3.99B vs $3.92B expected, up 24% YoY, with subscription revenue up 24.5% YoY to $3.88B. Adjusted EPS was $0.90 vs $0.86 expected, and cRPO reached $13.2B, up 21% YoY and ahead of estimates. The company raised FY26 subscription revenue guidance to $15.76B–$15.78B, while guiding for 81% subscription gross margin, 31.5% operating margin, and 35% free cash flow margin. AI was the biggest highlight, with ServiceNow AI ACV crossing $1B in Q2 and agentic deployments increasing 9x in just nine months. RPO rose to $29B, customers above $5M in ACV grew 23% YoY to 658, and deals over $1M in ACV jumped roughly 40% YoY to 123.

9. Stripe generated $3.2B in free cash flow in 2025, up 52%, as revenue climbed roughly one-third to $6.8B, its fastest growth since 2021, according to The Information. The company also reached $2B of revenue in Q1 2026. Stripe’s momentum is being helped by AI customers, with the company processing subscription and usage-based payments for OpenAI, Anthropic, and other AI companies. Its billing, invoicing, and tax products are also tracking toward a $1B annual run rate this year. That level of cash generation gives Stripe more flexibility to keep expanding, following its acquisitions of Metronome and Bridge, plus the reported Stripe and Advent International offer of more than $53B for PayPal $Paypal(PYPL.US).

10. Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) is reportedly gearing up for a major Mac refresh cycle starting this fall and continuing through 2027, per Bloomberg. The first wave is expected to include an M6 14-inch MacBook Pro and updated iMacs, followed later by redesigned 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros featuring OLED touchscreens. Apple is also working on new MacBook Air, MacBook Neo, Mac mini, and Mac Studio models, though some release timing may depend on memory-chip availability.

11. Baird reiterated Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) at Outperform with a $250 price target, arguing the company is well positioned as AI workloads shift from training toward inference. The firm’s bullish view is built around Nebius’ full-stack platform, strong software attach, expanding customer base, sector-leading growth, and experienced team from the Yandex carve-out. Baird also said Nebius is moving quickly to strengthen its stack through high-quality acquisitions, helping it compete in a fast-changing AI infrastructure market.

12. OpenAI is now reportedly forecasting roughly $750B of compute spending through 2030, up from about $600B earlier this year, as it continues locking down cloud and data center capacity, per WSJ. The company also announced a $20B initial investment in Project Camellia in Georgia, where OpenAI will serve as lead designer and developer for the first time, with 3.2GW of power contracted between 2028 and 2032. Other reported infrastructure commitments include 6GW with Oracle, $138B over eight years with AWS, and another $250B tied to Microsoft Azure.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

ALPHABET Q2 2026 EARNINGS:

- Revenue $119.8B +24% YoY

- Google Search Revenue $63.3B +17% YoY

- Google Cloud Revenue $24.8B +82% YoY

- Google Cloud Operating Income $8.8B

- Operating Income $40.8B +30% YoY

- Net Income $112.1B +298% YoY

- Gemini App 950M Monthly Active Users

- Gemini Models Processing 22B API Tokens Per Minute

This is the first quarter in years that Google had negative FCF of -$5.8B, but this is also their fastest growing cloud quarter ever and strongest revenue acceleration in 3 years.

The capex spend is leading to them becoming one of the most important companies in serving AI to the world.

Source: amit

GOOGLE RAISES CAPEX FROM $190B TO $205B FOR FISCAL YEAR 2026

2027 CAPEX NOT DISCLOSED BUT WILL BE “SIGNIFICANTLY MORE”

Semis loving it after hours but Google is taking the hit as the market digests what “significantly more” means 😂

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Coreweave(CRWV.US) $IREN(IREN.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US)

Source: amit

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

Google is in a weird position today.

Let’s say they raise CapEx from $190B, the expected amount right now, to $200-$220B.

It would be super bullish for all the Semis, but would the market think that’s bearish for hyperscalers?

Would $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) go down on that news because they will be expected to raise? Google just diluted by $85B so the assumption is they will either increase capex or at the very least keep it flat per their previous guidance.

Now, let’s say Google increases their cloud business revenue growth rate again from last Q’s 63% to something like 70%. Amazing growth, but they obviously need to spend more on capex to meet the demand, does the market think that the capex increase is justified at that point if their cloud business is meaningfully growing?

What if their RPO, which is now at $450B, goes to something like $550B? Oracle and Microsoft increased their RPO’s by $100-$200B last Q, but the problem is most of that RPO is coming from OpenAI and Anthropic.

So if Google says the RPO isn’t distributed but more concentrated, does the market get concerned on if that RPO can convert into revenue? Google is also making their own chips, what implication does that business have on $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) even if they increase capex?

Last Q, Google also had equity stakes in $SpaceX(SPCX.US) and Anthropic which saw valuation reratings that boosted their EPS. They won’t have that this time.

It’s going to be one of those quarters where the market will have to ask many questions around what is happening with capex, why is it increasing if it is, and where the growth is coming from to justify the increase.

If they decrease capex, it becomes a whole different question.

I think we get a strong quarter but many questions to be answered that Google will set the stage for when it comes to Big Tech earnings.

Source: amit

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

NVIDIA'S JENSEN HUANG GIVES AN UPDATE ON KIMI K3 AND CHINA'S OPEN SOURCE MODELS:

"American companies should absolutely be allowed to use Chinese AI models. There's a misconception that somehow there are backdoors connected to China in someway. You download the models, fine tune them, guardrail them in any way you want."

"These Chinese opensource models are excellent. The market has misunderstood the impact of DeepSeek the first time. It's misunderstood the impact of Kimi this time. Open models are great for the whole industry, there will be more usage which will require selling more Nvidia computers and building more datacenters."

"Great models lead to more usage. There is also a misunderstanding that open models are going to hurt the closed models, that is also wrong."

Source: amit

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

Woah.

SMCI guided for 8.4-8.7% gross margins last quarter. They have a TTM gross margin of 8.83%.

They just came out after hours and said they are increasing their guide for gross margins to now 15-17%.

Even during 2024-2025, their gross margins went from 11-13%.

How does a commodity server rack provider double their margins in the past 90 days?

If anything, it feels like the company is either rolling out new products with better margins in the AI space or gaining more leverage with their customers to command better margins. If a low margin business like $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) can gain leverage, then other AI names can as well, which is part of the reason that competitors like $Dell Tech(DELL.US) and $Hewlett Packard Enterprise(HPE.US) are up after hours.

Pretty incredible move from SMCI and could be a big moment for many AI names that are able to increase margins.

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) +15%

Source: amit