Jim

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) 2025 Off an April Thrust and ZBT the First Real Test of the 21 EMA was 3 Days AFTER JUNE FOMC.

2026 I would expect the same test Regardless of IRAN OIL ect as PPI/CPI is June 10th.

Testing the 21 EMA in an UPTREND is OK.

Just Depends on the Reason for Bringing it down to that level.

Profit Taking

MACRO

Rotation

FOMC Tightening

ECT...

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) FAFO Holding the Line at the 8-EMA 1.618 Golden FIB Extension off the $630 LOW.

Trump sends in Attack, we dump below.

If not, maybe grind higher, but NEED a FULL Peace Deal or the WAR RISK Premium won't be Removed.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Setting up a WAVE 4 PULLBACK Headed into EARNINGS 5/20. This is MACRO + OIL not AI $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) so if they can turn that around, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Could set up a WAVE 5 PUSH to $250 into July.

Again, need to fix MACRO OIL or it won't matter at all.

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) OIL IRAN USA BOMBS MACD NEGATIVE

THE MARKET IS FLASHING EARLY SIGNS OF RISK OFF.

MACD CROSSOVER NEGATIVE!

@WhiteHouse MAKE A DEAL OR DUMP THE MARKETS AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!

@SecWar @SecArmy @SecRubio @netanyahu

2025 May Analog vs May 2026 🤔

Know Your Auction Dates!!

Link Below!

Weak Auctions = NO Bueno

This week, we saw a C+ auction, not good.

$TNX and long-duration yields are no longer moving ONLY on inflation data or geopolitics.

The market is now entering a MASSIVE Treasury supply window through May, June, and July.

That means:

MORE 10Y and 30Y debt issuance

MORE duration supply

MORE pressure on auctions to clear successfully!

And if demand is weak like this week!

Yields MUST rise until buyers step in.

The market’s message right now:

> “If inflation stays sticky, oil remains elevated, and deficits keep expanding… we want MORE compensation to lock money up for 10–30 years.”

Key Treasury Supply Clusters Ahead:

🗓 MAY

• May 20 → 20Y Bond

• May 27 → 2Y FRN + 5Y Note

• May 28 → 7Y Note

🗓 JUNE

• June 9 → 3Y Note

• June 10 → 10Y Note

• June 11 → 30Y Bond

• June 16 → 20Y Bond

• June 18 → 5Y TIPS + FRN

• June 24–25 → 2Y / 5Y / 7Y Cluster

🗓 JULY

• Continued bill issuance + quarterly refunding pressure building

Why this matters:

Weak auctions → Higher yields required → Financial conditions tighten → Mortgage rates rise → Equities face pressure → Treasury must offer EVEN MORE yield

That’s the current Doom Loop.

And right now the market is watching:

Bid-to-cover ratios

Foreign buyer demand

Auction tails

Dealer take-downs

Oil prices

CPI/PPI inflation data

The 10Y is the benchmark growth/inflation signal.

The 30Y is the long-term confidence signal.

If auction demand stabilizes? Yields can reverse fast.

But if inflation + oil + weak demand continue?

The market may FORCE rates even higher before buyers finally step in.

For what it's worth, last year we had this spike May 13th, May 20th to 26th, then calm until mid to late July.

#SPX #SPY #QQQ #Bonds #Treasury #Macro #Inflation #Oil #Rates #FOMC

@Norseman1

@McClellanOsc

@market_sleuth

@Micro2Macr0

@Basssem666

@mark_ungewitter

@Bluekurtic

@itsmichaelluu

@ISABELNET_SA

@SuperLuckeee

Trump has 10-15 trading days to make some deals on oil, tech and Chill out Iran with a truce.

Let the orange man sleep off the trip come back to the table next week well rested.

Bearish Flow Today

Nothing above 70%

APPLE Doesn't Count

It's Defensive

Still Happening!!

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPX $Magnificent Seven ETF - Roundhill(MAGS.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US)

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) It's FRIDAY RISK OFF OPEX.

DO YOU SEE MASSIVE RED SELL CANDLE ON VOLUME FOR $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) ???

TRUMP AND TEAM ARE FLYING BACK.

WEEKEND TWEETS WILL SEND THE MARKET BACK TO NORMAL OR GAP DOWN MONDAY.

EMA 8 is THE LINE IN THE SAND

0.67 PUTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Low...........

NFA

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) WEEKLY -

SWING LOW

FIB EXTENSION 1.618

FIB EXTENSION 2.0

Trend Looks Decent - Not sure what the biggest challenge is.

Last year we had 8 week gains in Aug to October.

You see something bearish on this chart, let me know what it is.

TRUMP FLEW TO CHINA FOR SOYBEANS

LMAO - I swear ok....

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) This is a pretty damn good chart.

Breakout - RETEST (Liquidity Sweep at Support) Breakout into Earnings with MACD Crossover Healthy and a FULL BULL STACK DAILY + WEEKLY.

Thoughts on the Weekly Survey for 5/13?

Bearish 35%???

Bullish 36-37%

5/12/2026 $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) @GROK printed a hammer-like candle, but I’d call it a bullish hammer / demand-tail candle, not a “textbook perfect” hammer.

$SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) 5/12/2026 Candle

Open: 736.89

High: 738.84

Low: 731.83

Close: 737.40

That means:

Body: 737.40 − 736.89 = $0.51

Lower wick: 736.89 − 731.83 = $5.06

Upper wick: 738.84 − 737.40 = $1.44

Why it qualifies

The lower wick is almost 10x the body, which is classic hammer behavior:

Sellers pushed price down hard intraday, but buyers stepped in and reclaimed almost the entire candle by the close.

That is bullish demand defense, especially because it happened near the rising 8 EMA / 21

EMA structure after a strong move.

Why it is not “perfect”

A textbook hammer usually has:

Tiny body near the high

Long lower wick

Little to no upper wick

Usually appears after a pullback/downtrend

This one has a visible upper wick, and it is occurring after a strong rally, so it is more accurately:

Bullish demand-tail / hammer-style continuation candle

Key level from this candle

The line in the sand is the low: $731.83.

As long as SPY holds above that low, this candle says:

buyers defended the dip.

A break below $731.83 would weaken the hammer signal.

Confirmation level

You want to see $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) push back above:

$738.84 high, then $740.79 recent high

That would confirm continuation and likely put the next upside magnet around the $739–$750 zone.

TL;DR

Yes, it is a hammer-like bullish demand candle on $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US).

Not perfect textbook because it came after a rally and has some upper wick, but the message is clear:

Dip got bought hard.

Bulls defended the 8 EMA zone.

Confirmation comes above $738.84–$740.79.

Betting Against These Amazingly Successful People.

Wild... they are the 1% of 1%!

Bet against them, ok bro.

Fam Down days are OK.

Test the Trend, Real Diamond or Fake Lab Grown stuff, lol

$VIX Waking Up, But VIX Expiration is tomorrow.

We have $12T In CEO Companies in China this week.

Can they create a sense of calm and peace talks with IRAN to settle down OIL/Yields and Trade??

$Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) Options Collar

As a Trader, you want to ride the Trend in the long term direction but with 140%+ Implied Volatility, that can literally be a 180 on the flip of a dime.

Going into Earnings, I let my Calls Run since they were already explosive, but I realized the team needed to deliver on earnings.

They did not.

The flip side is riding puts for a week or two, as IV bleeds out and a new trend is formed.

That's the Long/Short Collar.

Obviously, I want the stock to go Long and Short Squeeze, but that doesn't always go your way.

Either way, if trading, through a very High Volatility Window, carry a hedge.