The pre-market and post-market opening downward pressure on US stocks was primarily caused by the combined resonance of several core negative factors and capital flow dynamics: "Exhaustion of Good News" and Profit-Taking at High Levels in Tech Stocks. Yesterday, US stocks experienced a sharp rebound driven by the surge in Micron and AMD, with the Nasdaq index rising sharply by 1.3%. Loose Holdings at High Levels: Although today marks the landmark listing of SK Hynix on Nasdaq, the massive accumulated profits in the AI sector in recent times have led investors to choose "taking profits and securing gains" on this Friday, triggering technical profit-taking. Cost-Side Concerns: As the capital expenditures of major giants in the AI field continue to consume cash flow, market scrutiny over "whether AI investments can translate into tangible profits in the short term" has become increasingly stringent, putting pressure on tech stock valuations at high levels. Geopolitics: Mysterious Airstrikes Resume, Ceasefire Agreement Faces New Variables. Although market sentiment eased in the previous trading session due to rumors of US-Iran talks, the latest news shows that a series of mysterious and unclaimed airstrikes hit southern Iran. Previously, the Trump administration signaled that the ceasefire agreement "is over," and renewed clashes between the US and Iran directly intensified market risk aversion. The escalation of conflict has further exacerbated control over the Strait of Hormuz and the shipping crisis, tightening global supply chains and energy costs once again. Inflation and Rate Cut Expectations Suppressed by "Oil Prices + High Interest Rates" Dual Pressure. Oil Prices Volatile: Affected by the aforementioned geopolitical conflicts, Brent crude and WTI prices experienced significant "swings" again today. The inability of oil prices to fall back to pre-war levels has severely hindered the global fight against inflation. High US Treasury Yields Persist: The 10-year US Treasury yield remains stubbornly high in the 4.54% - 4.58% range today. The high-interest-rate environment has increased borrowing difficulties for companies and directly caused a phased valuation multiple compression for growth stocks with high valuations. "Earnings Bombs" and Cost Devourment at the Start of Earnings Season. The Q2 US earnings season has quietly begun. The performance of leading companies announced pre-market today failed to inject a strong boost into the market: Delta Air Lines' pre-market Q2 profit barely exceeded expectations, but its stock price suffered a heavy blow. Its earnings report exposed an industry-wide pain point: due to the surge in oil prices, Delta Air Lines paid its most expensive fuel bill in company history in the just-ended quarter. This has made the market extremely concerned about the profitability of other heavy-asset, cyclical industries going forward. Technical Review and Response. From a market structure perspective, today's decline is more like a low-volume pullback after encountering strong resistance at high levels. The current market has not experienced a complete "total rout." The Dow Jones index still shows some defensiveness due to the support of traditional safe-haven and value blue-chip stocks. Technically, the major indices are moving towards the daily 20-day EMA or the Bollinger Band midline to seek support. Strategy Suggestions: Given that we are currently in a sensitive window period characterized by **"the eve of earnings season + unclear geopolitical situation," market implied volatility has been pushed up again due to the airstrikes. If engaging in options strategies to short volatility, it is currently best to choose to further widen the defensive space by lowering the strike price**, or appropriately increase cash positions and wait for the final tone set by next week's key macro data and tech heavyweight earnings reports.
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Today (July 7th), the US stock market—especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq index—suffered a heavy setback. The core trigger stemmed from "Sell the News" panic in the semiconductor sector, compounded by the resonance of macroeconomic data and geopolitical risks.
The main reasons can be summarized into the following three points:
1. Core Trigger: Samsung's "Explosive" Earnings Report Sparks an AI Valuation Slump (Good News Exhausted)
Global semiconductor and AI chip stocks faced intense selling pressure today. In the Asia-Pacific session, Samsung Electronics announced exceptionally strong preliminary Q2 results, with operating profits surging 19-fold year-on-year (reaching 89.4 trillion won).
The Market's Inverse Reaction: Such stunning earnings not only failed to ignite the market but triggered a frenzied exodus of profit-taking. The South Korean stock market (KOSPI) plunged by up to 8% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker. Samsung itself closed down 7.7%, and SK Hynix fell sharply by 6.7%.
US Tech Stocks Under Consequent Pressure: This phenomenon directly triggered a "Reality Check" panic among US stock investors. The market began to seriously question: Can the extremely high valuations given by current tech giants and the hundreds of billions in real money invested in AI chips and data centers ultimately be translated into matching actual productivity and profit returns? This concern about an "AI bubble" directly led to a bloodbath across chip stocks and high-flying tech stocks.
2. Macro Data: US May Trade Deficit Soars Significantly
In the early session, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the latest international trade data, directly pouring cold water on rate cut expectations and economic prospects:
The US goods and services trade deficit for May surged 42.2% month-on-month, reaching $77.6 billion (with the goods deficit widening to $106.5 billion).
Export Decline and Tariff Front-loading: May exports fell 3.2% month-on-month, reflecting weakening global core demand; imports rose 3.3%, partly due to some companies accelerating "front-loading" in anticipation of tariff policies. The massive trade deficit directly dragged down Q2 GDP growth expectations, intensifying market concerns about stagflation risks in the second half of the year.
Geopolitics: Tankers Attacked Again in the Strait of Hormuz, VIX Risk Aversion Rises
Renewed geopolitical tensions put further pressure on risk assets. News this morning reported that two commercial ships were attacked by unidentified projectiles while exiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy and Supply Chain Turbulence: Affected by the attacks, WTI and Brent crude oil rose in the short term, with Brent returning to around $73. Although not triggering a full-blown surge, frequent attacks on shipping lanes cut off market optimism, with funds beginning to flow out of high-beta tech stocks and into defensive assets.
Technical Review
The Nasdaq fell over 1.4% intraday today, and the S&P 500 broke below the 7,500-point mark. From a technical perspective, the US market in the past few sessions had been forcibly pulled near historical highs by a few heavyweight stocks (the Dow Jones hit a record high yesterday), inherently carrying risks of severe index dullness and extremely poor breadth. The Samsung earnings report merely provided an outlet for emotional venting, with the market using the opportunity for high-level consolidation. The short-term key is to see whether the Nasdaq can find support at key moving averages in the coming days.
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Overall, the two sides have just erupted into a round of intense direct military clashes. This is putting the fragile ceasefire agreement, which was hard-won, under severe test. The "Weekend of Major Firefights" that just passed: Over the just-passed weekend, the US and Iran experienced the most serious military escalation since signing the ceasefire memorandum:
Straits of Hormuz Incident: Iran recently reiterated its "sovereignty and absolute management rights" over the Straits of Hormuz, warning that commercial vessels passing without Iranian approval would be "very dangerous." Last Thursday and Saturday, cargo ships and a tanker flying the Panamanian flag were attacked and intercepted successively. The US side determined this was the work of Iran or its supported armed groups. US Military Retaliatory Airstrikes: In retaliation, the US Central Command dispatched fighter jets to carry out large-scale airstrikes on military targets within Iran or under its control, focusing on bombing its air defense sites, drone storage facilities, communication systems, and mine-laying facilities. Iranian Counterattack and Threats: Subsequently, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy claimed to have carried out attacks around US bases in places like Bahrain and Kuwait in retaliation, and strongly warned that the US airstrikes had torn up the ceasefire agreement, "which will lead to a complete halt of all diplomatic negotiations." The Interest Calculations Behind Ceasefire Negotiations
Despite fighting fiercely, both sides have not completely overturned the negotiation table so far, each having their own strategic interests behind it: Oil Price Dividends and Economic Unshackling: Due to the previously signed 60-day provisional peace roadmap, the US for the first time in decades allowed Iran to settle some oil in US dollars. This directly pushed international oil prices down to around $70-73 per barrel. The US government needs low oil prices to combat domestic inflation; while Iran is extremely eager to use this to lift sanctions and unfreeze assets.
The Nuclear Issue Gambit: US Vice President Vance recently made tough remarks in an interview, claiming the US "holds all the good cards" in the negotiations because Iran's nuclear enrichment uranium processing capacity has been severely damaged in the conflict. The bait offered by the US is: if Iran abandons nuclear weapons ambitions long-term, the US is willing to fundamentally transform bilateral relations. Current Latest Developments
"Monday Cooling-off": After the weekend's fierce fighting, clashes between the two countries have temporarily ceased today. Senior leadership on both sides seems to be reassessing the boundaries, which is also the key external macro reason why US stocks and global commodities were able to take a breather and rebound today. Tuesday Qatar Talks Rumor Denied: Previously, US media reported that the US and Iran would hold an emergency closed-door technical meeting in Doha on Tuesday to resolve the Straits of Hormuz passage crisis. But just earlier today, Iran's Foreign Ministry came forward to deny that any technical working group meetings would be held this week, reiterating that the US must first pressure Israel's military actions on fronts like Lebanon. To sum up: the US and Iran are now like two opponents tied with bombs yet forced to sit at the same table to settle accounts. On one hand, the unfreezing of tens of billions of dollars in assets, the lifting of restrictions on oil dollars, and the need for low oil prices are attracting both sides to continue implementing this 60-day peace roadmap. On the other hand, Iran's hardline blockade of the Straits of Hormuz, and the military clashes that could erupt at any moment, make this ceasefire agreement liable to become a worthless piece of paper at any time.
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The US stock market showed a divergent and volatile trend, with tech stocks dragging down but the market rebounded sharply pre-market due to positive news from chip giants.
Performance at yesterday's close for the three major indices
Due to renewed pressure on large-cap tech stocks, US stocks closed mixed on Wednesday, with a clear "two-eight split" in market structure (approximately two-thirds of individual stocks actually rose, but the indices were dragged down by heavyweight tech stocks):
Nasdaq Index (NASDAQ): Fell 110.40 points, a decline of 0.43%, closing at 25,476.64 points. Weighed down by weakness in heavyweights like Microsoft (-2.3%) and Oracle (-4.6%).
S&P 500 Index: Slightly fell 7.24 points, a decline of 0.1%, closing at 7,358.22 points, retreating from its all-time high for the second consecutive trading day.
Dow Jones Index (DJI): Defied the trend and rose 182.06 points, a gain of 0.35%, closing at 51,848.90 points.
Core trends and key technical dynamics
1. Pre-market bull counterattack: Micron and Qualcomm ignite chip stocks
Pre-market on Thursday, Micron Technology disclosed extremely strong earnings guidance, projecting quarterly revenue to surge to approximately 500 billion USD, far exceeding market expectations of 432 billion USD. Customers even committed 220 billion USD to lock in Micron's memory chips. This positive news directly stimulated the Nasdaq 100 futures to soar over 2% pre-market, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) saw sentiment recover, reversing the short-term correction risk triggered in recent days by tech stocks due to overvaluation.
2. Fund flows and options activity
Implied volatility and hedging: The VIX index is currently fluctuating around 19. Before the PCE data release, the market has priced short-term risks relatively fully. The SKEW (Skew Index) rose to 145.30, reflecting large capital rolling into deep in-the-money puts on the July, August, and September option chains for portfolio hedging.
S&P volatility expectations: According to SPX option pricing, the implied expected move for this week is approximately 82 points (1.10%), roughly locking the volatility range between 7,276 and 7,440.
3. Macro environment and bond market changes
Inflation data outlook: The entire market is currently closely watching the upcoming release of the core PCE inflation data, which will directly determine the Fed's next interest rate moves.
US Treasuries and commodities turmoil: The long end of US Treasuries saw strong buying, with the 2-year Treasury yield falling below 4.40% for the first time in months. Simultaneously, easing geopolitical tensions caused crude oil prices (WTI) to fall below 70 USD; gold also suffered a technical breakdown, falling below the 4,000 USD/ounce mark for the first time since November last year, correcting nearly 29% from its historical high in January this year.
Overall, after two days of profit-taking in tech stocks, the market is undergoing short-term repair today driven by the strong fundamentals of the semiconductor sector. However, given the active high-level hedging option positions, the indices still need to watch the support near the EMA moving averages when approaching the upper range of the box in the short term.
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The overall trend of the U.S. stock market today is: "a corrective rebound after intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the market is digesting the hawkish pivot of the new Fed Chair, while tech stocks lead gains driven by geopolitical easing and major company news."
If you are observing the intraday movements of the three major indices, after experiencing a volume-driven sell-off with over 1% declines across the board last night (17th), the three major futures indices today, both pre-market and at the open, showed clear signs of a retaliatory rebound, especially Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures, which rebounded up to 0.8% - 1.3% intraday.
We can review today's major trend from three dimensions: macro fundamentals, technical structure, and capital flow dynamics.
Macro Fundamentals: The New Chair's "Clear Hawkish Stance" vs. Geopolitical Tailwinds
The Fed signals hawkishness: In his first policy meeting after taking office, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, while keeping rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, abandoned the traditional "forward guidance," emphasizing a complete shift to "data dependence." More crucially, the dot plot shows that 9 officials expect at least one more rate hike before the end of 2026. This unexpectedly hawkish "unannounced shift in tone" led to a late-session sell-off in U.S. stocks last night, with the three major indices falling sharply.
Geopolitics and Major Company News: Market sentiment recovered rapidly pre-market today, primarily for two reasons: first, the U.S. and Iran signed a phased peace agreement, causing international oil prices to plunge over 2%, alleviating market concerns about runaway inflation and easing pressure on the Fed's rate hike expectations; second, there were significant rumors in the tech sector, with former President Trump's comments about "Intel and Apple potentially reaching some form of cooperation" spurring a pre-market surge in Intel, directly igniting bullish enthusiasm across the semiconductor and tech sectors.
Technical Trend: Intensified High-Level Volatility, Testing Daily Moving Average Support
From a longer-term medium-term structure, the market is currently not in a smooth one-sided bull market, but rather in a "profit-taking at high levels, with amplified volatility in phases" consolidation phase:
S&P 500 / Nasdaq: Broke below the 20-day EMA last night, with the daily MACD indicator showing a clear bearish crossover above the zero line, and the RSI also moving away from the overbought zone towards the 50 equilibrium line. Although there was a rebound today, it is typical of a "deep decline rebound," and whether the trading volume can expand effectively is key. If the S&P cannot quickly recover yesterday's losses, the daily chart may evolve into a small double top or form a right shoulder in a consolidation pattern.
Fear Index: The VIX surged over 12% to 18.44 yesterday. Although it retreated somewhat today, its overall absolute value has moved away from the single-digit "absolute safety zone" of the past few months, indicating that market risk aversion has not completely dissipated.
Sector and Capital Flow Dynamics: Beta Tech Stocks Recover, Heavyweight Stocks Provide Support
Tech and Semiconductors Lead Gains: Besides Intel being driven by news, high-beta semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA and Micron attracted significant short-term bottom-fishing capital intraday after yesterday's broad sell-off. The long-term fundamental logic of AI computing power and hardware remains the market's strongest card.
Traditional Sectors Diverge: Due to oil prices falling below $78, the energy sector faced pressure overall today; meanwhile, banking and major financial sectors benefited from expectations that the Fed may maintain high rates for an extended period, showing strong defensive resilience.
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Namo, ratna-trayāya. Namo, ārya. Avalokiteśvara, śubhāya. Bodhisattvāya. Mahāsattvāya. Mahā, kārunikāya. Oṃ. Sarva-buddha-dharma. Sūtra-dhātu. Namo siddhi-kṛta, imaṃ ārya. Avalokiteśvara, śrī-buddha-lokeśvara. Namo, nārāyaṇāya. Hṛīḥ mahā, padma-samaya.
Sarva-artha, duṣṭa-pāpa, aśeṣa. Sarva-sattva, namo bhagavate, namo bhagavati. Mahā-vajra. Tadyathā. Oṃ, a-pa-ra-ji. Lokeśvara. Kāruṇika. I-hrīḥ. Mahā-bodhisattva. Sarva-sarva. Mara-mara. Mahi-mahi, ri-dhā-ya. Kuru-kuru, karma. Dhuru-dhuru, vajra-yakṣa. Mahā-vajra-yakṣa. Dhara-dhara. Dhṛti-nī. Śrī-buddha-ya. Cakra-cakra. Ma-ma, vajra-māra. Mūḍha-li. I-hrī i-hrī. Śi-na śi-na. A-ra-saṃ, buddha-śarīra. Vajra-vajra. Buddha-śarīra.
Hulu-hulu-mara. Hulu-hulu-hrī. Sara-sara. Siri-siri. Suru-suru. Bodhi-ya, bodhi-ya. Buddha-ya, buddha-ya. Maitreya-ya. Nārāyaṇa. Dhṛti-sena. Pāya-mana. Svāhā. Siddha-ya. Svāhā. Mahā-siddha-ya. Svāhā. Siddha-yoge. Śrī-prabhā-ya. Svāhā. Nārāyaṇa. Svāhā. Mara-nara. Svāhā. Sira-saṃ, amukha-ya. Svāhā. Svāhā mahā, a-siddha-ya. Svāhā. Cakra, a-siddha-ya. Svāhā. Padma, ka-siddha-ya. Svāhā. Nārāyaṇa, bhaga-rāya. Svāhā. Ma-pari, śaṅkara-ya. Svāhā.
Namo ratna-trayāya. Namo ārya. Avalokiteśvara. Śubha-prabhā-ya. Svāhā. Oṃ, siddhiṃ. Mantra. Bodhi-ya. Svāhā.
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The overall major trend of the gold sector today presents the characteristics of "a solid long-term bull market pattern, but entering a phase of high-level consolidation and differentiation in the short term." This is mainly due to the underlying assets — today's market: Gold is under pressure at high levels, mining stocks are experiencing a pullback on high volume. Spot gold is consolidating at high levels: Currently, the international spot gold price remains firm above $4310 per ounce. Although the long-term trend is extremely strong, the short term faces resistance at the $4500 mark. Today, the market is mainly digesting the news of "possible easing of Middle East tensions and a sharp drop in oil prices," leading to a slight cooling of risk-aversion sentiment. GDX market performance: As an industry bellwether, GDX is currently fluctuating around $88.00. Having risen all the way from lows near $50, its year-to-date gains are substantial. Today's volatility is typical profit-taking by long positions at high levels, not the end of the medium-term trend. Core Major Trend Catalysts Gold mining stocks have the attribute of being "gold price amplifiers." The underlying logic supporting their long-term major trend remains solid, but there is short-term noise: Negative: Recent rumors of a preliminary peace agreement between the US and Iran have materialized, leading the market to expect a phased reduction in geopolitical premium. This has triggered some profit-taking in the short-term crude oil and precious metals markets. Positive: Permanent upward shift in gold price center: Gold's surge from just over two thousand dollars to firmly stand above $4300 means major gold miners will achieve record-high free cash flow and gross margins in 2026. Institutional reallocation: Due to the earnings explosion, traditional mutual funds and hedge funds are continuously rotating profits from high-priced tech stocks into the high-dividend-yielding mining sector. Today's market even saw favorable individual stocks attracting regular investment buying. Technical Major Trend Analysis If you are trading GDX or specific gold mining stocks, the current trend pattern can be used for macro defense and right-side positioning based on the following key technical levels: Phased long structure remains intact: From the moving average system, GDX's EMA and SMA still maintain a perfect upward-sloping long arrangement. The MACD formed a golden crossover above the zero line again in early June, meaning the major trend is still controlled by the bulls. Core support levels: First support zone: Near $85.00. Bull-bear dividing line: The $78.00 range. Core resistance levels: The key resistance above is at the $95.00 round-number mark. Due to the rapid rise in gold prices this round, GDX needs to undergo a change of hands in holdings between $85 to consolidate strength before having the momentum to challenge the $100 mark. Trading Strategy Reference Due to the amplification of short-term implied volatility with the rise in gold prices, gold mining stocks are currently in a high-level consolidation and accumulation phase. The cost-effectiveness of fully buying the underlying stock to chase gains is beginning to decrease. If you are bullish on the solid support of spot gold at $4300, it would be more comfortable to use derivative strategies when GDX pulls back near $85–87 — for example, selling deep out-of-the-money Puts or constructing bull vertical spreads. This way, you can both earn premium by leveraging high IV and control your cost basis within a safe defensive range, quietly waiting for the next gold price breakout catalyst.
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Global financial markets and the broader digital asset trend are showing a clear recovery in risk appetite and a resonance of bullish sentiment. This is further amplified by the emotional boost to the tech sector from SpaceX's historic IPO success.
The specific major trends in the broader market are as follows:
US Stocks & Global Equity Markets: High Spirits, Tech Leads the Rally
With the news release of a peace agreement in the US-Iran conflict, market concerns over an energy crisis and hyperinflation have significantly eased, leading to gains across major global stock indices.
Stock Index Futures Performance: The three major US stock index futures opened significantly higher with a gap in Monday's Asian session and pre-market trading. Nasdaq 100 futures led the gains, up 1.4%, S&P 500 futures rose nearly 0.9%, and Dow futures also gained 0.7%. The S&P 500 is currently steadily advancing above the 7,500-point level.
Asia-Pacific Markets: Stimulated by this major positive news, Asia-Pacific stocks surged broadly today. The Nikkei 225 and South Korea's KOSPI index both soared over 5% in a single day, while the Australian stock market also recorded a strong gain of 2.6%.
Individual Stocks & Hotspots: SpaceX's historic Nasdaq IPO debut surged over 19%, greatly revitalizing capital flows back to the tech mainline and AI-related sectors; traditional bank stocks (e.g., Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan) also performed steadily.
Digital Assets (BTC/ETH): Reclaiming Lost Ground, ETF Net Inflows Welcome an Inflection Point
The removal of geopolitical risks has lowered the market's overall fear index (VIX has clearly retreated), and capital is beginning to tilt back towards risk assets.
BTC Trend: BTC showed a clear recovery trend today, successfully reclaiming the ground lost when it fell back below $60,000 due to previous geopolitical tensions, climbing to around $65,700 during the session. Looking at the options derivatives structure, although there is pressure from the Fed's FOMC meeting this week and some institutions are still buying protective options, the mainstream tone has shifted to "the release of risk-hedging after the event concludes."
ETH & Altcoins: ETH rebounded to around $1,716. Core mainstream coins like SOL and XRP followed the broader market, oscillating higher.
Capital Flows: Last Friday, US Spot BTC ETFs recorded a net inflow of approximately $85.9 million, ending the previous streak of outflows, indicating that institutional capital is beginning to buy the dip again at current levels.
Commodities & US Treasuries: Safe-Haven Capital Outflows
Crude Oil: As the most direct reaction to the peace agreement, international crude oil futures suffered a heavy blow today, falling about $5 per barrel, with oil prices directly retreating to around $80 per barrel. This also incidentally lowered the entire market's future inflation expectations.
US Treasury Yields: Safe-haven buying retreated, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling slightly to around 4.43%, while the 2-year yield touched the 4.03% support level, with the pressure on the yield curve easing somewhat.
Core Observation Summary
Today's market is a typical **"bad news exhausted, risk released" scenario. Macroscopically, the sharp drop in oil prices suppressed the rise of inflation expectations; microscopically, the tech giant's IPO provided an emotional catalyst. In the intraday major trend, the bulls clearly hold the advantage in this wave. However, it's important to note that the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting will take place later this week**, and after consecutive strong gains, the market typically experiences some position adjustments or volatile movements before the mid-week interest rate decision announcement.
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SpaceX Soars 19% on Debut, Market Cap Surpasses $2 Trillion to Become Sixth Largest U.S. Company
June 13 (Reuters) - SpaceX (SPCX.O) surged on its Nasdaq debut on Friday, with its market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion. The listing proceeded more smoothly than many observers had anticipated. The stock began trading late Friday morning and spent most of the session up 15% to 30% from Thursday's pricing, with relatively modest volatility. It closed around $161, up 19%, propelling the company into the ranks of the sixth largest in the United States. The final settlement price is yet to be determined. Trading volume exceeded 500 million shares, with a turnover of approximately $80 billion. With major listing plans from Anthropic and OpenAI on the horizon, market watchers had worried that a flood of new shares after a prolonged IPO drought could weigh on market performance. However, investors ranging from large institutions to Elon Musk's retail fans were in high spirits by the close. "SpaceX not only broke records in terms of IPO fundraising size, but also left other large companies far behind. It's impressive to add so much market value in an instant when the starting valuation was already approaching $2 trillion," said Dan Coatsworth, Head of Markets at AJ Bell.
SpaceX Starship Flight 13: Fly or Fade?
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Amid the overall macro sentiment of the global market, influenced by persistently high oil prices and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, global assets are exhibiting significant volatility and divergence.
Observation of Major Trends in Core Assets
US Stock Market: Wide Fluctuations, AI Tech Stocks Experience a 'Roller Coaster' Ride
After a sharp decline led by chip stocks the previous day (the Dow fell by nearly 100 points, the Nasdaq fell by nearly 2%), the US stock market attempted a corrective rebound during today's session.
Tug-of-War Between Bulls and Bears: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices showed slight gains during the session (about 0.2% - 0.3%), but market sentiment remained fragile. The US market not only has to digest sudden geopolitical conflicts but also faces pressure from the higher-than-expected increase in May's Producer Price Index (PPI).
Technology and Semiconductors: Tech stocks showed divergence after several days of profit-taking. Buying interest in the AI hype still provides support, but volatility at high levels is extreme. Oracle's stock plunged nearly 11% during the session due to massive AI capital expenditures and a large financing plan (issuing bonds and additional shares), weighing on the software and cloud sectors. In contrast, some semiconductor concept stocks that had fallen significantly earlier are looking for technical support.
Asia-Pacific Markets: Hong Kong Stocks Under Pressure, Small-Cap Tech Stocks in A-Shares Relatively Active
Hong Kong Stocks (Hang Seng Index): Continued the recent downtrend, closing lower again today (down about 0.7%, hovering around 24,400 points), marking the sixth consecutive day of decline and hitting lows not seen since late March. Risk aversion due to escalating Middle East tensions and profit-taking in heavyweight tech stocks were the main drags.
A-Share Market: The overall market showed a pattern of weakening volatility and sectoral divergence. However, hard-tech sectors such as semiconductors, electronic chemicals, High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), and fourth-generation semiconductors were active against the trend. Institutional funds showed signs of clustering in small-cap tech growth sectors and AI infrastructure directions.
Commodities and Bond Market: Safe-Haven and Inflation Logic Resurfacing
Crude Oil: Directly stimulated by geopolitical conflicts, concerns about oil supply intensified. WTI and Brent crude oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude oscillating at high levels around $89.5 per barrel. Due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, high oil prices are exerting sustained pressure on future inflation expectations.
US Treasury Yields: Although the latest CPI data of 0.2% provided a slight breather, due to higher-than-expected PPI and persistently high oil prices, US Treasury yields remained at relatively high levels. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently trading around 4.52% - 4.55%. The market generally expects the Fed to maintain policy discipline within the year, and even does not rule out the possibility of another rate hike before the end of the year.
💡 Technical and Strategic Perspective
The current market is in a critical 'sentiment transition period.'
From the perspective of technicals and fund flows, due to sudden variables in the international situation, volatility at the index level (the VIX index has soared above 20) has significantly amplified. For high-valuation tech and semiconductor sectors, the market's core logic is shifting from pure 'AI vision frenzy' to 'scrutinizing the consumption of cash flow by capital expenditures.'
Before the overall trend fully digests geopolitical headwinds, the market may maintain high-frequency intraday churning. Tracking whether core heavyweight stocks find support and stabilize near the key moving average of 50, and whether oil prices will further push up the inflation slope, will be key in the coming days to determine whether the market can form a short-term bottom.
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The market performance and recent developments of the nuclear energy concept stock Oklo Inc. (OKLO) are as follows:
1. Today's Stock Price Movement
Latest Price: Currently trading around $55.36, down approximately 1.97% from the previous trading day.
Intraday Fluctuation: The stock showed a slightly volatile and weak intraday trend today, with the high and low points roughly between $54.15 and $55.72.
Recent Trend: Compared to its previous glory when the stock price surged above $80 due to soaring electricity demand from AI data centers and the cooperation agreement with NVIDIA and Los Alamos National Laboratory in late April, OKLO has recently seen a significant round of profit-taking and adjustment. It has fallen over 12% in the past week and about 23% in the past month, with its current market cap dropping to around $9.8 billion.
2. News and Fundamental Developments
Insider Selling: The latest data shows that the company's Chief Financial Officer (CFO), Richard Bealmear, recently sold some shares, cashing out approximately $3.9 million. This has somewhat dampened short-term market sentiment.
Supply Chain Integration: On the positive side, investment bank Wedbush pointed out in its report this Monday that Oklo's acquisition of ARMEC is strengthening its supply chain integration capabilities, providing margin support for its future reactor deployment strategy.
Financial Status (Q1 Review): The Q1 2026 financial report released last month shows the company is still in a transition period from "strategic planning to execution phase." It recorded zero revenue in the first quarter, with net losses widening to $33.1 million. However, the loss per share of $0.19 met market expectations.
3. Technical Analysis Reference
OKLO is a typical high-beta (high volatility) growth stock, significantly influenced by sentiment around the AI power concept. After falling from its previous high, the stock price is currently seeking new support in the $54 - $56 range. On the daily chart, due to the recent continuous decline, technical indicators (such as EMA, MACD) are in a short-term weak adjustment cycle. Short-term bulls need to wait for a signal of stabilization or new catalysts from policy/project progress.
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Gold mining, the most core logic in the current market can actually be summarized in one sentence: both gold prices and mining stocks are in a "mid-game consolidation and digestion period" after experiencing a round of overheating. Gold mining stocks have a typical characteristic: a high beta (leverage) effect on spot gold prices. When gold prices surge, mining companies' profits explode, and stock price increases often far exceed the rise in gold prices. However, when gold prices adjust or stagnate, the cost pressures faced by mining companies are amplified, leading to more severe stock price pullbacks. The following are the most critical observation dimensions for the current gold mining sector:
The Game Between Spot Gold Prices and Industry Costs
International spot gold prices are currently oscillating at high levels around $4,300 - $4,400 per ounce. Compared to the bull market of the previous two years, recent fluctuations in Fed rate cut expectations and a temporary easing in international geopolitical tensions have put short-term pressure on gold prices, even touching recent phase lows. Impact on miners: Although gold prices have retreated from historical highs, the absolute price remains elevated. This means the profit margins for most leading miners are still healthy. The industry's average all-in sustaining cost is generally around $1,400 - $1,600 per ounce. As long as gold prices hold firm above $4,000, miners' free cash flow remains very robust.
When positioning in gold mining, market capital typically follows two paths:
Tracking broad market composite indices:
GDX: Anchored to global large-cap, first-tier gold producers. Due to recent high-level consolidation in gold prices and oil prices remaining above $90 per barrel, GDX has experienced a degree of "high-level shakeout." Its stock price is currently fluctuating around $79, showing a significant pullback from the March historical high of $117, and is testing key technical support levels below. GDXJ: Primarily targets small-to-medium-sized, exploration-stage, or high-growth junior miners. These types of stocks are more volatile and exhibit greater elasticity during periods of high speculative sentiment. However, as current market risk appetite has temporarily converged, their trends are also in a phase of consolidation and bottom-building. Leading heavyweight giants: As the world's largest gold miner, its trend is essentially the bellwether for GDX. The key to watching these leading companies lies in observing whether their quarterly production guidance is affected by issues in major mining areas or labor problems, and whether their dividend/buyback intensity can satisfy investor appetite under high cash flow conditions. Technical Analysis and Strategic Considerations for the Current Cycle
From a technical perspective, after the parabolic surge in the gold mining sector, the daily and weekly charts have now largely entered a wide-ranging consolidation and shakeout cycle. Operational approach: Mining stocks place great emphasis on "left-side accumulation" or "support-level grid" positioning. During the phase where gold and oil prices play "seesaw," chasing rallies directly often leads to being trapped at phase highs. Conversely, one can focus on the strong support for gold prices around $4,200 - $4,250 per ounce and the reaction of lower channel lines for GDX and others. Summary: The current weakness in gold mining stocks does not signify the end of a major cycle; it is more of a "bubble-squeezing" phase during a mid-bull market breather. As long as the long-term demand logic of global central banks as net buyers remains unchanged, this sector often exhibits strong left-side rebound elasticity after phases of overselling or when macro inflation data provides clear guidance.
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Today, sentiment around UMAC has eased, with no secondary panic selling, but the rebound has also been relatively restrained. At market open, the bulls attempted to push the price up to $27.83, followed by sideways consolidation in the early session. The intraday low touched $25.21, and it is currently trading around $26.40, down about 1%. Considering the latest market movements, capital flows, and announcement information today, UMAC's trend exhibits the following three core characteristics: Capital Flow: Executive Sell-off Pressure Eases, Retail Support Faces Test A key reason for UMAC's recent pullback from highs has been concentrated selling by executives and industry directors. Today's market action reflects: The news of heavy selling was gradually digested by the market at open. The stock opened at $27.82, but due to a lack of strong institutional one-sided buying, it subsequently fluctuated lower. However, when it hit $25.21 intraday, there was clear capital entering to provide support, creating a 'lower shadow,' indicating that retail and thematic hot money support still exists around the $25 level. Technical Trend: Retesting the $25 Golden Support Zone From a daily chart structure perspective, today's movement represents structural defense after cooling off from highs: Short-term overbought correction complete: Tickeron's latest quantitative indicators show that UMAC's 10-day RSI, after last Friday's sharp drop, has now completely exited the previous 'extremely overbought' zone. As it only broke above the 50-day moving average on heavy volume in late May, the current adjustment is more likely a mid-term 'retest and confirmation.' $25 is the key watershed: Today's low of $25.21 precisely coincides with the $25 platform consolidation zone from before the stock's rapid surge over the past month. As long as it can close above $26 today, technical traders will view it as a signal of 'temporary pause in the short-term decline.' However, if it breaks below $25 later this week, the downside could extend directly towards the $20 - $22 range. Trading and Derivatives Perspective The broader market is experiencing an oversold rebound today. However, UMAC, as a highly volatile small-cap 'meme stock,' did not follow the tech rally, indicating that capital remains cautious and risk-averse towards such high-valuation thematic stocks, which still have a P/S ratio over 70. Spot trading on the right side: Today's low-volume sideways movement suggests a temporary balance between bulls and bears around $26. It's not advisable to rush to 'buy the dip' for a rebound with heavy positions today, as there is significant selling pressure from last week's trapped positions between $28 - $30, making a direct V-shaped reversal less probable. Options arbitrage perspective: Although the stock is under pressure from selling by the CEO and directors, the fundamental story remains, including the Pentagon's potential $1 billion 'low-altitude supply chain localization' initiative and UMAC's recent agreement to acquire the battery factory Upgrade Energy for expansion. Core Summary: Today, UMAC is in a phase of 'sideways consolidation to heal after a heavy fall.' It will likely churn between $25 - $27 for the first half of the week. Until the company management's official appearance at the Roth London investor conference on June 16th, and in the absence of new macro-positive catalysts, the broader trend will likely be dominated by defensive range-bound fluctuations.
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Iranian official: Iran will continue to exercise its right to self-defense and remain vigilant against hostile actions by the United States.
May 9th news, multiple Iranian officials stated that Iran has firmly responded to a series of "provocative actions" by the United States in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Iran will continue to exercise its right to self-defense and remain vigilant against any further hostile actions by the U.S. military against Iran.
In short: Facing pressure from the U.S. military in key maritime areas, Iran reiterated its resolve for armed self-defense, and the regional situation remains highly tense.
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Have a nice weekend, relax well, take a walk. Waiting for the market to open on Monday.
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Regarding Unity Software (U), based on the latest Q1 earnings report and market performance for the week (May 4 - May 8, 2026), we have summarized the following for you:
1. This Week's Core Market Performance
Closing Performance: As of Friday's (May 8) close, Unity's stock price settled at $28.16.
Weekly Volatility: The stock experienced significant volatility this week. It was relatively stable at the beginning of the week. After the earnings release on Thursday, the market showed divergence. On Friday, it rebounded strongly (with a single-day gain of approximately 3.8%) driven by the broader market and positive analyst rating upgrades.
Technical Pattern: Currently positioned in the lower-middle range of the 52-week fluctuation band ($16.78 - $52.15), but has stabilized above the support level near $26.
2. Key Q1 Earnings Data (Released May 7, 2026)
Unity's performance this quarter can be described as "initial success in strategic transformation":
Revenue: $508 million, slightly exceeding market expectations ($505 million). The "strategic core business" showed strong growth.
Profitability (EPS): Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.23, higher than the analyst consensus of $0.20.
Gross Profit & Margin: Adjusted EBITDA reached $138 million, with a margin of 27%, representing a significant year-over-year improvement of 800 basis points.
Profit Outlook: CEO Matthew Bromberg clearly stated that the company is on track to achieve profitability under GAAP accounting standards in the fourth quarter of 2026.
3. Business Highlights & Growth Drivers
Unity Vector (Advertising Business): Grew approximately 80% year-over-year, achieving sequential quarter-over-quarter growth of about 15% for four consecutive quarters. This is currently the strongest cash cow, with its AI-driven advertising effectiveness significantly boosting customer returns.
AI Deployment: Unity AI entered public beta this week, receiving a positive market response.
Market Share: Maintains a 70% market share in the mobile game development sector.
New Moves: Plans to launch Unity Commerce (business platform) and has already secured partnerships with major clients like Voodoo.
4. Institutional Views & Market Outlook (Watch for Monday, May 11)
Institutional Ratings: Following the earnings report, Oppenheimer raised its price target. TipRanks noted that the average analyst price target has moved up to $40. Barclays also issued a positive forecast.
Downside/Risk Factors:
Business Contraction: The company is divesting non-strategic businesses (e.g., some peripheral operations of the former ironSource/Supersonic), which will pressure revenue scale in the short term.
Debt: Attention is needed on the $558 million convertible bond maturing in November 2026. Although current cash flow is sufficient ($2.15 billion cash reserve), it remains a point for financial monitoring.
Summary & Recommendation:
At Monday's market open, Unity is likely to continue the upward momentum from this Friday. If you are a medium-to-long-term investor, you can monitor the progress of its GAAP profitability turnaround. For short-term traders, it is advisable to watch the psychological resistance level at $30.00.
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Unity Software ($Unity Software(U.US)) has indeed been causing distress for many investors with its recent performance. From over $40 at the beginning of the year to around $27 now (even dipping below $20 at one point), this "ankle-deep" decline is mainly due to the company undergoing a major, transformative restructuring. Here is an in-depth summary of the reasons behind the price drop and future trends for $Unity Software(U.US): Revenue Gap Period: Proactively Cutting BusinessUnity is undergoing strategic restructuring, actively shutting down or divesting non-core businesses like the advertising network and game publishing. While this is for long-term profitability, it has caused total revenue figures to appear severely "shrunk" in the short term, triggering market sell-offs. AI Competition Panic: Google's ImpactIn early 2026, Google released Project Genie, claiming it can directly generate 3D game worlds using AI. The market once worried that traditional game engines like Unity would be completely replaced by AI, shaking its valuation logic. Conservative Financial Guidance: In previous earnings reports, Unity was very cautious in its performance forecast for the first half of 2026. In the current market environment of "focusing on cash flow, not dreams," even the slightest downward revision in performance expectations is magnified by leveraged funds. The "Plot Twist" After the May 7th Earnings ReportAlthough you've seen it fall for a long time, the just-released Q1 earnings report actually released strong signals of counterattack: Revenue Exceeds Expectations: Actual revenue was $508 million, exceeding market expectations. Vector Platform Explosion: Revenue from the company's AI-driven advertising platform, Vector, surged 80% year-on-year, proving that Unity not only survived but found a new growth point in the AI era. Profitability Timeline Accelerated: The company announced it expects to achieve GAAP profitability in Q4 2026, earlier than analysts expected. Future Trend Summary: Reshaping After the Pain1. Short-term (Consolidating the Bottom): The stock price is currently in a consolidation period after rebounding from the low (around $18). The $26-$28 range is a key area for turnover. If it can stabilize here, it indicates the market has digested the negative news of "business shutdowns." Medium-to-Long-Term Bullish Logic: More Than Just Games: Unity's dominant position in industrial digital twins, automotive HMI systems, and as a core partner for spatial computing (Apple Vision Pro) remains solid. Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement: After large-scale layoffs and structural simplification, Unity's profit margins are recovering rapidly. Valuation Reversion: The average target price given by institutions is around $37, representing over 30% potential upside from the current price.💡 Investment Advice Trapped Investors: If you bought above $40, selling now might be "cutting meat before dawn." The Q1 report shows fundamentals have bottomed out and are recovering. Consider averaging down with small purchases below $25 to dilute your cost. Onlookers: This is a high-volatility, high-beta stock, suitable for aggressive positions. If it can break through the $32 resistance level later, the reversal trend will be officially confirmed. In a nutshell: $Unity Software(U.US) fell earlier because "cutting off an arm to survive" was too painful. Now the wound is healing, and the AI engine Vector is its nuclear weapon for the second half of the year. As long as it becomes profitable in Q4 as scheduled, this stock will likely return above $40.
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Personal Summary of Recommendations:
Today, the U.S. stock market showed a clear rebound in risk appetite, with all three major indices rising collectively. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 both hit record highs. This was primarily driven by easing geopolitical tensions (expectations of a U.S.-Iran peace agreement) and strong tech earnings reports.
Here is a summary of U.S. stock market big data as of May 7, 2026:
Index Performance & Core Data
Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC): Surged 2.01%, closing at 25,834.88 points.
S&P 500 Index (SPX): Rose 1.45%, closing at 7,364.72 points.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Rose 1.22% (approximately 603 points), closing at 49,909.55 points, just a step away from the 50,000-point milestone.
Fear Index (VIX): Declined as safe-haven sentiment receded.
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield: Fell to around 4.35%, easing pressure on risk assets.
Sector & Industry Focus
Semiconductors & AI:
AMD's earnings report was outstanding, leading the chip stocks higher today.
NVIDIA (NVDA) stock price remained stable. The market is holding its breath for the upcoming Q1 FY 2026 report on May 20th, with analysts generally expecting its revenue growth to accelerate to over 77%.
Tech Heavyweights:
Tesla (TSLA) performed brightly, gaining over 3.6%. A 36% surge in sales signals from the Chinese market and strong exports offset some market concerns about gross margins.
Apple (AAPL) rose over 1.3%. Although the company just reached a $250 million settlement in a class-action lawsuit over the delayed Siri AI features, market expectations for the AI roadmap at next month's developer conference (WWDC) are heating up.
Energy & Commodities:
Crude Oil Plunge: Affected by expectations of a U.S.-Iran peace agreement, Brent crude broke below the $100 mark, and WTI crude fell to around $95, with a single-day drop exceeding 7%.
Cryptocurrency Market Linkage
Bitcoin (BTC): Remained oscillating above the $81,000 mark. Although it fell slightly by about 0.3% in 24 hours, it still showed extremely strong resilience compared to other assets.
Ethereum (ETH): Performed relatively weakly, with its price hovering around $2,330, down about 1.5%. Technically, ETH is under pressure below the 200-day moving average (around $2,367), and it's crucial to watch whether it can reclaim the key resistance level of $2,370.
Investment Operation Suggestions (For Reference Only)
Technical Analysis Focus:
MACD/RSI: Currently, the Nasdaq is at a high level, and caution is needed for a potential pullback under short-term RSI overbought signals.
Options Strategy: For popular stocks like NVDA, implied volatility (IV) typically rises before earnings (before May 20th). Some investors tend to use Sell Put to collect premiums or construct Bull Put Spreads to hedge risks.
Macro Risks: Global debt is approaching a historical high of $353 trillion, and while geopolitical tensions are expected to ease, they remain subject to reversals.
Today's Keywords: 50K-point sprint, AI-led rally, oil price plunge, peak earnings season.
My Portfolio Health Check
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Nike has indeed experienced a very difficult period recently. As of May 2026, Nike's stock price has fallen about 75% from its peak in 2021, recently hitting its lowest level since 2014.
The reason it has "been leading the decline" is mainly because Nike has been caught in a "triple whammy" of strategic mistakes, declining performance, and deteriorating internal and external environments:
Three Major Strategic Mistakes (Backfiring Effects)
Excessive withdrawal from wholesale channels: The former CEO decided to withdraw and fully implement a direct-to-consumer model. This resulted in a decline for Nike in physical stores, giving Adidas, Hoka, and On Running an opportunity to seize the market.
Lack of innovation: In recent years, Nike has overly relied on reissuing classic models, with insufficient investment in innovation in high-tech fields like professional running shoes, leading to a weakening of its core competitiveness in the professional sports market.
Brand positioning confusion: Several marketing campaigns caused controversy in the North American market, leading to the loss of some core customers, while the loyalty of new customers failed to make up for it in time. Rise of local brands: Chinese consumers' recognition of other domestic brands has significantly increased.
Geopolitical tensions and tariffs: Affected by geopolitical tensions and tariffs, Nike's revenue in the Chinese market recently experienced a sharp double-digit decline, and this trend is expected to be difficult to reverse in the short term.
Earnings Report "Bomb"
Extremely pessimistic guidance: In its latest earnings report (Q3 FY2026), Nike lowered its future guidance, warning that sales this quarter will continue to decline by 2%-4%, and gross margin will continue to shrink due to inventory clearance and rising costs.
Massive layoffs: In just the first four months of 2026, Nike has already laid off about 14,000 people, which is seen by the market as a signal that the company is deeply mired and has to "stay alive" by cutting expenses.
Technical reference for investors:
If you are observing the stock price trend, you can pay attention to the following key points:
Valuation regression: Nike's current valuation level has reached a historical extreme low. Some analysts believe this may be a "once-in-a-decade" bottom, but others worry it could become a "value trap."
Leadership change expectations: The market is currently pinning its hopes on new CEO Elliott Hill's "Win Now" transformation plan, watching to see if he can successfully repair relationships with wholesalers and reignite product innovation.
Key support: From a technical perspective, the $30 - $40 range is a very strong long-term psychological support level.
Personal advice:
Nike's current decline is not a simple correction, but the growing pains of a business model reshaping. Before signs of a profit margin recovery are seen by the end of 2026, the stock price may remain in a weak, volatile state. If your friend holds this stock, they may need a great deal of patience to wait for its "second startup" to succeed.
The World Cup is Nike's most important "lifeline" in 2026.
If marketing during the World Cup is successful and the product strength is recognized by the public, Nike could likely use this opportunity to achieve a "V-shaped reversal." But if it cannot outperform cross-border competitors like Adidas or Lululemon even when playing at home, investor confidence may further collapse. Nike now is like a star player just returning from injury; the World Cup is his comeback match. A good performance can return him to the peak, but a poor performance might really lead to the market "cold-shouldering" him.
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Today's market environment is quite complex. Influenced by the Middle East situation (friction between Iran and the US in the Strait of Hormuz), energy prices remain high, and market sentiment is caught between risk-off and strong earnings reports.
Based on the latest market data and industry trends as of May 5, 2026, the following categories of targets are worth focusing on. Given your preference for semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and options strategies (like Short Puts), I've outlined the following recommendations:
Key Stock Analysis
Micron (MU):
Update: Due to tight supply of HBM3E (High Bandwidth Memory) and NAND flash, MU has shown extremely strong momentum recently, with its current stock price around $577.
Suggestion: The stock is currently consolidating at high levels, and implied volatility (IV) may be high. Considering your expertise in the Short Put strategy, if the price retraces to a support level, you could consider selling out-of-the-money Puts to collect premium. Cantor Fitzgerald has raised its long-term price target to $700.
Palantir (PLTR):
Update: The recently released Q1 earnings report shows record revenue and profit. The stock performed well in pre-market and at the open (up about 1.4%).
Suggestion: PLTR is currently a leader in AI software. If you are optimistic about the continued monetization potential of its AIP platform, the current post-earnings momentum could be an entry point, but be mindful of valuation premiums.
NVIDIA (NVDA):
Update: The stock is currently hovering around the $200 mark (up about 0.7% today). Latest data shows its free cash flow for FY2026 reached a staggering $96.6 billion.
Suggestion: NVDA remains the "ballast" of AI hardware. At the current price around $200, if it can hold this key psychological integer level, it presents an opportunity for long-term core position building.
Tesla (TSLA):
Update: The stock performed steadily today, rising nearly 2%, and has returned to the $400 level.
Suggestion: TSLA is currently navigating the tension between its Robotaxi vision and delivery reality. Technically, if it can stabilize above $400, further upside potential may open up.
Strategy Suggestions (Based on Current Macro Environment)
Hedging Geopolitical Risk: Due to Middle East tensions, energy stocks (e.g., VLO) are active today. If your portfolio is overly concentrated in tech stocks, you could consider adding some exposure to the energy sector as a hedge.
Options Strategy Suggestion: With high market volatility currently, it's suitable to continue executing your preferred Credit Put Spread or Short Put strategies. For stocks like MU or NVDA, selling Puts above key moving averages (e.g., EMA 20) remains a relatively stable way to earn time value.
Non-Tech Watchlist: To diversify risk, consider Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX). Its Q1 earnings exceeded expectations, and it belongs to the more defensive biotech/healthcare sector.
Personal recommendations are as follows:
Aggressive: PLTR (post-earnings momentum).
Conservative: NVDA or MU (use pullbacks for Short Puts).
Hedging: Focus on energy or high cash-flow traditional heavyweight stocks.
Note: Investing involves risk; trade with caution. It is recommended to use technical indicators like MACD and Fibonacci to confirm specific entry points.
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Anticipated its anticipation, Micron really hit 650, sold and ran, waiting for a subsequent pullback, or chasing the new high of 700 with a small position. The risk is a bit high. It's best to just watch. SanDisk breaking 1400 is just around the corner, charging towards 1500 to be continued.
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After-Market Quick Report 2026/05/04
All three major indices declined:
S&P 500: Down 0.4%, closing at 7200.75 points.
Nasdaq: Down 0.2%, closing at 25067.80 points (relatively resilient).
Dow Jones: Down 1.1% (approx. 557 points), the worst performer.
Black Swan Event: The UAE claimed to have been attacked by Iran, raising concerns that the ceasefire agreement reached in April may be invalidated. Brent crude surged 5.8% to $114.44.
Market Sentiment: Although geopolitical tensions have caused volatility, the overall resilience of U.S. stocks remains strong, with corporate profit growth continuing to be a long-term supporting force. Key Sectors and Stock Analysis
Semiconductor/AI Sector:
NVDA (NVIDIA): Closed at $198.45 (-0.56%) today. Technically, NVDA broke below the Fibonacci 0.236 level ($204.47), with an RSI of 67.36, indicating short-term overbought correction pressure.
MU (Micron): Despite the broader market pullback, due to the continued supply shortage in AI memory (HBM) demand, market expectations for MU's earnings are extremely high, and it is currently in an adjustment phase within an uptrend channel.
Defensive Sectors and Unusual Moves: Capital flowed into defensive sectors. Notably, BlackBerry (BB) surged nearly 3%, primarily driven by positive news regarding its QNX software collaboration with NVIDIA and increased penetration in the automotive market.
Tomorrow's (5/5) Outlook and Trading Strategy Suggestions
Key Focus for Tomorrow:
Geopolitical Developments: The Trump administration's "Project Freedom" escort plan is a core variable. If the U.S. military escort is successful and the situation stabilizes, oil prices may retreat, benefiting the broader market; if direct conflict occurs, oil prices could break $115, triggering a deep 2%-4% correction.
Earnings Effect: AMD will release its earnings report after the market closes tomorrow. AMD's guidance for AI chips will directly determine the subsequent trend of the semiconductor sector (including NVDA and MU).
Technical Analysis and Trading Logic:
NVDA Support Level: Focus on the $194.77 (Fibonacci 0.382) support level in the short term. If it holds here, it's a good point to add to positions; if it breaks below, it may test $190.
Strategy Suggestions:
As recent volatility (VIX) has picked up, it is recommended to maintain selling put options (Short Put) to collect premiums in a high-volatility environment, but choose strike prices far from support levels (e.g., around $185 for NVDA).
Monitor sector volatility driven by AMD's earnings. If AMD's performance exceeds expectations, it may lead the semiconductor sector to collectively recover from today's decline.
Personal Recommendation: Tomorrow's market will feature the dual themes of "geopolitical maneuvering + tech stock earnings expectations." Before the situation becomes clear, maintain portfolio flexibility and closely watch crude oil price movements as a risk indicator.
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Index Performance: Divergence is evident
Nasdaq & S&P 500: After hitting record closing highs last Friday, early trading today saw significant volatility. Tech stocks remain supported, but the momentum for further gains has weakened, with profit-taking sentiment emerging near historical highs.
Dow Jones: Performance was relatively weak, continuing last Friday's pattern of stagnation or slight decline, mainly dragged down by traditional industrial and energy sectors.
Core Driving Factors
Peak Earnings Season: Apple's (AAPL) better-than-expected earnings and guidance last Friday continue to resonate in the market, supporting the resilience of large-cap tech stocks (Mag 7). The market is currently in the second half of the Q1 earnings season, with investors awaiting more corporate results for validation.
Macroeconomic & Policy Pressures:
Inflation Pressure: Energy price volatility and hawkish comments from some officials have led the market to reassess the Fed's rate cut expectations.
Geopolitical Situation: Uncertainty surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has caused market sentiment to fluctuate. Although the US military denied some attack rumors, crude oil price volatility directly impacted the energy sector's performance.
Berkshire's Impact: Warren Buffett revealed at the weekend annual meeting that Berkshire holds a record nearly $400 billion in cash and expressed a cautious view on current market valuations. This news somewhat dampened the market's enthusiasm for chasing gains today.
Sector Dynamics
Strong: Technology (XLK), Consumer Discretionary (XLY). AI-related semiconductor and software stocks remain the primary destination for capital seeking safety/offense.
Weak: Energy (XLE) declined due to falling oil prices and unclear geopolitical developments; financial and industrial sectors performed flat.
Technical Observations
Volatility: The VIX index hovers around 17, indicating that although the market is at high levels, anxiety has not completely subsided.
Historical Pattern: The market has entered the traditional "Sell in May" season. Historical data shows that May to October is often a weaker half-year for stock performance, making technical investors more cautious with their operations at current highs.
Personal Advice:
The overall market tone today is "high-level oscillation, cautious 观望". As major indices are near historical extremes, and geopolitical risks coexist with uncertainty around the rate hike cycle, bulls and bears are fiercely contesting at current levels. It is advisable to pay attention to the non-farm payroll data to be released this Friday, which may set the tone for the overall direction in May.
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SanDisk has once again broken through to a new high, reaching the level I mentioned before. At this level, there will be a pullback. If nothing unexpected happens, it will pull back to around 1050 and then break through to a new high again.