morning_wind

Sell call, sell call

1) Cutting-edge models are released here every day, with daily free credits, just like the new energy vehicle launches + new retail subsidy wars; 2) The competition in frontier models is too fierce, the total market size will grow, but how the endgame profits will be distributed is highly uncertain. 3) The current investment in cloud computing here is too large, and it's hard to say how much of the long-term profit share and voice will be taken by the model manufacturers. 4) Hardware truly makes money in the current period. The cost is valuation and discipline.$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) Key points from the earnings report and conference call: 1) Gross margin steadily increased; 2) TSMC expects revenue growth in 2026, measured in US dollars, to be slightly above 40%, previously forecasted as above 30%. 3) TSMC expressed confidence in the significant trend of artificial intelligence, stating that capital expenditures over the next three years will be significantly higher than the past three years. 4) TSMC announced that it will raise its capital expenditure ceiling for 2026 to $64 billion.

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) reported a net profit of NT$706.6 billion in the second quarter, exceeding market expectations of NT$623.73 billion. This is a key compass data point for the hardware sector.

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)$SK Hynix(SKHY.US) The US ADR is already at a 50% premium compared to the underlying stock, that's just absurd, absolutely absurd. Some people are shorting the ADR and going long the underlying stock, they're going to have a tough time now.

This wave has taken quite a few pullbacks, and many people have been asking for opinions via private messages these past two days. The judgment that AI is a major opportunity on a ten-year scale has not wavered at all. A significant part of the intense pain from this wave of pullbacks is because many people added leverage during the rally, and secondly, it might be due to buying at the peak. If you hold positions with a slightly longer duration, like $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), $AMD(AMD.US), $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US), or DRAM, the returns for this year are still decent, not painful. To summarize the lessons learned, we should focus on these two points, not say AI is over just because the stock price fell. Finally, some believe value will shift downstream in AI, for example, to cloud computing, or to model and application companies (the two are also in a game of their own). I think it will inevitably happen in the long term, but it's not clear enough in the short term at the moment.

The game between models and cloud computing companies has begun. $Amazon(AMZN.US)

$AMD(AMD.US)I really didn't expect that you performed the best in this wave of adjustment. $Intel(INTC.US)Keep it up!

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)The former adjusted some to the latter.

$Meta Platforms(META.US)$Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US)My take on the Meta thing: Market-based measures have optimized the resource allocation efficiency of computing infrastructure, similar to how a planned economy is being adjusted. It doesn't affect the overall supply-demand imbalance issue of the entire silicon-based industry. Locally, it might even increase the tolerance for internal competition among various CSP/CAPEX spenders: computing power is still something to fight for; it's better to scale it up in your own hands; if you really can't scale it up, you won't lose out (you can still resell it).

If your account is still in the green in the first half of the year, don't be discouraged.

Because: May is poor, June is desperate, July sees a turnaround, September and October are golden, the year-end sprint is coming, and great doublings are all achieved in the second half of the year.

The first half is either a "youth trap" or a "children's trap," neither is very promising; the second half is the real deal: July turnaround, August consolidation, September surprise attack, October harvest, and a year-end sprint to new highs.

$LAIFUAL(03952.HK) actually broke its issue price in the morning session today. The discount compared to the A-share $Leaderdrive(688017.SH) is too exaggerated. Buying a bit to show support.

Anthropic: U$62B

OpenAI: U$40B

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The recent ARR situation of the two companies in June is still rising.

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

If you think silicon-based is too risky and want to look at carbon-based, you should still be cautious about bottom-fishing in Chinese internet stocks in Hong Kong. Pharmaceutical leaders are relatively at low points and have the potential to emerge first.$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)$BEONE MEDICINES(06160.HK)$INNOVENT BIO(01801.HK)

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) is officially going to list on the US stock market. Estimated date is July 10th. The new share issue price will be based on the closing price on the 23rd. Coincidentally, it plunged 12% in a single day on the 23rd. It's really hard to say if this big drop was intentional...

Last night, the market was speculating that Google's questioning of MAG7's massive bleeding investments might all be about practicing the Sunflower Manual (a risky, self-destructive strategy);

Today, it feels like they're realizing something's wrong while practicing and starting to live within their means, and hardware is going to suffer as a result.

Expressed dissatisfaction with the continuous large outflow of talent related to the model of $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), sold a portion today. Reallocated into $Intel(INTC.US) and $Cerebras(CBRS.US). The reason for buying Intel is also clearly buying into some narratives over the weekend (CEO interview). Still hold quite a bit of Google, but the main expectation is now only on cloud and TPU. The expectations for the model since last year's Q3 are now gone.

Let me summarize Mr. Dan Bin's recent activities for everyone. It's all public data, so I won't go on about risk warnings and such; just for your reference. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) Nothing much to say, steadily hitting new all-time highs.

Will it open high and close low again today, just to trick us? $KLA(KLAC.US)$Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US). On the other hand, in the US stock market, it feels like the focus of urgent value is shifting even more towards hardware.

Current positions, for reference only.

Hold on! Hold the door!

$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK) Data shows SK Hynix's depositary receipts rose 14% on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in Germany. Let's see how much we can recover tomorrow.