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Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as the new chair of the US Federal Reserve on Friday, succeeding Jerome Powell. His arrival coincides with a significant drop in rate cut expectations, with only a 38.2% chance of cuts by 2026. Warsh is perceived as more hawkish on inflation, which contrasts with President Trump's push for immediate rate cuts. His first major policy test will be at the June 16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, amid concerns about potential conflicts of interest due to his investments in AI and crypto companies.

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Market News: Kevin Warsh Takes Over as Fed Chair Friday as Rate Cut Hopes Hit Historic Lows

Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the new chairman of the US Federal Reserve. While he asserts commitment to the Fed's independence, concerns arise about potential government influence. Warsh has criticized the Fed's interest rate strategies, reflecting some of President Trump's views, which may impact bond investors.

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What bond investors should know about a Warsh-led Federal Reserve

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Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as the U.S. Federal Reserve chair on Friday by President Trump, succeeding Jerome Powell. Warsh's confirmation faced delays due to a criminal probe involving Powell. He takes charge amid rising inflation, influenced by Trump's tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Warsh's first rate-setting meeting is in mid-June, where he may confront pressures for a more hawkish stance on monetary policy as inflation concerns grow.

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Warsh to be sworn in as Fed chair at White House on Friday

Economist Justin Wolfers cautioned that ongoing Middle East tensions could pose political risks for Republicans ahead of the November midterm elections, as rising oil prices and Treasury yields pressure the U.S. economy. He questioned when Congress would intervene to protect their positions, noting that the conflict has led to significant oil supply losses and increased inflationary conditions.

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Justin Wolfers Warns 'Mess' In Middle East Will Continue Through The Midterms, Wonders If Republicans In Congress Will 'Step In' To Save Their Jobs

Trump is urging Congress to suspend the federal gas tax of 18.4 cents per gallon for gasoline and 24.3 cents for diesel amid rising fuel prices. Studies indicate that consumers typically see only about 79% of gas tax cuts, resulting in minimal price drops. Democrats argue that weakening fuel economy standards could lead to increased fuel consumption, higher costs, and negative impacts on air quality.

Trump seeks gas tax suspension amid record fuel prices

The AI boom has led to record spending, with top tech firms projected to invest $800B this year, increasing to $1.1T next year, representing over 3% of GDP. However, this growth has deepened economic divides, as around 10,000 AI insiders have gained over $20M each, while most workers see minimal benefits. Additionally, the AI gains obscure underlying economic issues such as tariffs, war, and sluggish consumer spending.

AI boom fuels record spending but deepens economic divide

Vice President JD Vance asserts that the Trump administration is making progress in strengthening the U.S. economy, with signs of wage growth and economic improvement following challenges inherited from the Biden administration. He acknowledges ongoing economic concerns, including inflation and cost of living, while emphasizing the administration's focus on long-term prosperity, job creation, and reducing inflationary pressures. The economic performance remains a key political issue as the nation approaches the next election cycle.

JD Vance says Trump economy is ‘digging out’ from Biden era

Treasury yields have surged to multi-year highs, with the 30-year yield exceeding 5.1% and the 10-year at 4.6%, driven by inflation concerns. Futures markets indicate a strong likelihood of a Fed rate hike by early 2027, potentially as soon as December. These higher yields could increase mortgage and corporate borrowing costs, negatively impact stocks, and slow economic growth.

Bond yields hit highs as Fed hike bets surge

One result of the massive monetary expansion was an upsurge in inflation, to a peak of over 9% in 2022—which the Fed infamously termed “transitory.”

Grading Powell’s Fed: Good for stocks, bad for affordability

The 30-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.125%, the highest since April 2007, driven by inflation concerns and expectations of rate hikes. The Producer Price Index rose 6% year-over-year, while the Consumer Price Index increased by 3.8%. Consequently, the odds of a Fed rate hike by year-end have risen significantly, with a 38.9% chance of one hike and 9.9% for two hikes.

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30-Year Treasury Yield Surges to 19-Year High as Inflation Fears Mount

Dow Jones Transportation Average(.DJT.US)

Market News: Kevin Warsh Takes Over as Fed Chair Friday as Rate Cut Hopes Hit Historic Lows

What bond investors should know about a Warsh-led Federal Reserve

Warsh to be sworn in as Fed chair at White House on Friday

Justin Wolfers Warns 'Mess' In Middle East Will Continue Through The Midterms, Wonders If Republicans In Congress Will 'Step In' To Save Their Jobs

Trump seeks gas tax suspension amid record fuel prices