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A hand-controlled life necessity price, plus a man-made interest price, will ochestrate US' economy boom in 2036.

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3% US 2026 GDP—New Policy Floor of AI Era?

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Originally, the market was continuously declining due to liquidity withdrawal caused by the U.S. government shutdown and concerns over supply chain financing surrounding OpenAI. However, now that the U.S. government has reopened and NVIDIA's strong performance has been released, the market still isn't buying it. What exactly is wrong with the U.S. stock market? With only five weeks left in 2025, has it completely turned into garbage time? Is there still hope for AI in 2026? 1. Looking towards 2026, what exactly are Trump's demands? There is one last chance for a rate cut this year—the interest rate meeting on December 10th. From a macro perspective, the current market's short-term nerves seem to be dominated by the prospect of a rate cut...

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Bubble Talk Rising, Will AI Continue as Hottest Bet in 2026?

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Continued tight liquidity has started to affect beneficiaries under ample liquidity, such as Bitcoin, as well as tech growth stocks with weak fundamentals and excessive valuations. But what cause the liquidity shortage abruption? what may ease it? and how to position portfolios under this circumstance?

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U.S. gov. shutdown to trigger a 'dollar shortage'?

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The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown since October 1st, and it has now been over a month. During this period, although there has been almost no release of federal-level macroeconomic data, the 'G2' meeting between China and the U.S. in South Korea, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, and the AI infrastructure investment frenzy by American tech giants during the earnings season have resonated to create a small peak in the U.S. stock market. However, the core issue the market now faces is whether the realization of these benefits means that all the good news has been priced in, and whether the remaining time in 2025 will be 'junk' time. 1. Powell's 'hawkish' rate cut...

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All become 'money-eating beasts'! Can the giants of the US stock market still take the lead?

Today’s Key News Recap

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0313 ｜Dolphin Research focuses on: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. The U.S. February CPI exceeded expectations across the board, with year-on-year growth slowing to 2.8%, and the core CPI growth rate at 3.1%, the lowest in four years. This data has somewhat alleviated concerns about stagflation, boosting market sentiment. After two consecutive days of significant declines, U.S. stocks finally rebounded, with the Nasdaq Composite Index closing up 1.22%. 2. There are reports that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is exploring plans to lower the threshold for investors to purchase certain high-priced stocks in Hong Kong to stimulate trading...

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Alibaba's "AI Super Box" is here, can it disrupt search? Intel welcomes a Chinese CEO to take the helm | Today's important news review

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“Elected” Trump? This wave of American citizens is the first to be sacrificed, used for federal deleveraging and industrial return. $Tesla(TSLA.US) $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX.US)Dolphin Research mentioned earlier that Trump's economic governance philosophy (see the link below).But the order of this philosophy is very important.And Trump, in practice, is clearly not about cutting taxes first and then raising tariffs. This is actually the familiar concept of &#34;breaking before establishing&#34; from the past two years domestically. In this process of &#34;breaking before establishing,&#34; the interests of ordinary citizens are the first to be sacrificed.Raising tariffs is indeed a way to protect domestic vulnerable industries, aimed at promoting industrial return. However, in reality, the cost of raising tariffs is not only borne by exporters; in the case where the U.S. cannot quickly replace domestic production capacity and user demand still exists, the end consumers need to bear part of the product premium brought by tariffs.Moreover, from the perspective of Trump's first month in office, the so-called government cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and expenditure reduction, have not been reflected in the federal deficit for February—In January, the U.S. fiscal deficit, including interest costs, was nearly $130 billion, while excluding interest payments, it still stood at a deficit of $49 billion. (PS Currently, there are only some signs of a slowdown in federal hiring in the new employment structure for February.)Additionally, as it aims to make tax cuts permanent, the places where fiscal revenue can increase are very limited, while fiscal expenditure is very necessary; thus, the U.S. debt balance can only control the slope of its increase, and the upward trend is absolutely certain. Historically, during peacetime in the U.S., there has been basically no reduction in the absolute value of fiscal expenditure.From the current results, in the detailed expenditure structure of the budget, Trump has chosen interest payments (which account for 13% of total federal expenditures) as the main operational target.The newly appointed Treasury Secretary does not agree with Yellen's approach of issuing short-term debt as a stopgap, and currently, the proportion of short-term debt in the U.S. is too high; after maturity, if it is replaced with long-term debt to extend its life, the yield on long-term debt will become very important.Raising tariffs may fuel short-term inflation, but after long-term growth becomes uncertain, the yield on long-term debt can drop, even leading to an inverted yield curve.In this process, ordinary American citizens will bear part of the cost of raising tariffs, leading to a relative decline in purchasing power, but once the yield on long-term debt decreases, the government's cost of borrowing long-term funds will also decrease.To some extent, this can be understood as a reversal of the helicopter money during the pandemic, where the government concentrated on absorbing private leverage; now it is doing the opposite: residents are starting to become the force-bearing units for government deleveraging, and what was originally absorbed must be partially expelled.Throughout the process, there is also an effort to maintain the relative bargaining power of enterprises compared to residents, or to protect the main body of employment.But the key issue here is that expectation management is a super significant behavioral economics concept; it is hard to say that once residents' expectations worsen, they will directly enter a state of precautionary savings.However, with such a significant policy shift, from the perspective of the stock market, facing this level of uncertainty in policy upheaval, the only thing funds can do is to run away first; after all, valuations were too high to begin with, and once they start running, there is no hesitation, just swift action.Therefore, this wave of decline in the U.S. stock market can initially look favorably at previously unattainable high-quality companies, but there is no need to rush to bottom-fish; it is better to first observe the changes in the rhetoric of Trump and the Treasury Secretary. <figure class="image"></figure><a href="https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/27779831">https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/27779831</a>

如何理解这轮川普关税大锤？ - LongPort

Tesla

NDAQ

The Fed's &#34;hawkish&#34; rate cut drama has finally arrived.Interest rates were cut by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 4.25-4.5%.But in the new economic projections, next year's economic forecast numbers were comprehensively revised upwards.The policy rate expectations were directly lowered by 50 basis points, implying only two rate cuts next year (most likely ending by Q1).Originally, the market thought that after Q1, rate cut decisions would enter a hard mode, but at least one more cut was still possible.This guidance is effectively 25 basis points less than market expectations.The stock market rally brought by Trump's election, from traditional industries to small-cap stocks, then back to the Nasdaq's catch-up rally, followed by the frenzy over newly launched large models and ASICs.After this round of catch-up, the U.S. stock market is likely to consolidate, waiting for the next quarter's earnings.

Nasdaq

Trump is back. Let's talk about the possible impact on domestic industries and tax reduction policies.a. For current tech giants (except $Tesla(TSLA.US)), it's short-term bearish but may turn neutral in the long run. These tech giants essentially achieved their commercial imperialism under the globalist umbrella woven by the Democrats. Trump's return to American nativism isn't favorable for them. Fortunately, these tech giants' business moats allow them to grow independently without relying on their home country's protection, so the pressure isn't too severe.b. However, domestic corporate tax cuts combined with interest rate reductions are actually beneficial for tech giants' EPS.So when offsetting both directions, it feels short-term neutral-to-bearish, long-term neutral-to-bullish. $NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US) c. For traditional industries, whether it's defense (Republican defense spending is generally high) or traditional energy (reducing green energy subsidies, not prematurely accelerating green energy penetration), it's clearly bullish for Dow Jones-represented traditional sectors. $ProShares Ultra Dow30 ETF(DDM.US)

ProShares Ultra Dow30 ETF

STECH

00HSI

Countdown to the U.S. election, the answer will be revealed on the 6th if there are no abnormalities, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be held on the 7th. The National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting will conclude at 8 AM Beijing time. The earnings season for U.S. stocks has just passed its peak, and this week is packed with macro events. Where exactly is the market trading now, and how should we view the future? This article aims to outline the current situation from the perspective of considering responses to different scenarios, rather than making predictions. The first question is to take a look at market trading: 1. U.S. economic data is &#34;slightly cool.&#34; Last week, in addition to the earnings reports from the giants...

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Hang Seng Index

Will the AI infrastructure frenzy backfire, and is the Trump trade coming to an end?

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As the first interest rate cut by the U.S. dollar entering the post-pandemic era of rate cuts, this rate cut can be described as both &#34;big&#34; and &#34;hawkish.&#34;The &#34;big&#34; lies in the fact that the first rate cut directly slashed 50 basis points, which was indeed unexpected compared to market expectations; the &#34;hawkish&#34; aspect was conveyed during the conference call and the dot plot, indicating that this 50-basis-point cut should not be linearly extrapolated, and future decisions will still be data-driven. This 50-basis-point cut was merely to demonstrate the Federal Reserve's determination to protect the economy.An interesting point was when several reporters repeatedly asked Powell whether this was a &#34;catch-up&#34; rate cut. Powell emphasized that, given the relatively good data on inflation and consumption, the large rate cut was more focused on being a forward-looking move. However, he also admitted that if the July employment data had been known earlier, a rate cut might indeed have been implemented at the previous meeting on July 31.From Dolphin Research's perspective, this illustrates two points:a. Among the various economic data, the current unemployment rate and new employment figures are the real core data, as subsequent CPI and PPI reports did not raise any red flags for the Federal Reserve.b. The dot plot released by the Federal Reserve to some extent only reflects the Fed's wishes and guides the market to trade on these wishes, but it does not mean this path will necessarily materialize.From the revisions in this economic forecast, it can be seen that among the root variables of the economy, the most significantly revised was the unemployment rate. The 大幅下修的政策利率预期 is merely a result of this root variable.Therefore, in the coming period, a key tracking point for the expected rate cut 幅度 will be the labor market: What is the labor participation rate? How much has labor supply increased? How much has job demand decreased? How much has the unemployment rate increased, and is it within the &#34;controllable&#34; range below 4.5%?Especially given the 惯性下修 in 每次新增非农就业， it’s prudent to build in some 保险 upfront. Based on the downward adjustments over the past few months, some decline should already be factored in. At least, this is how Powell indicated the Federal Reserve would approach the data.Furthermore, Dolphin Research is not overly concerned about this hawkish rate cut path guidance. The key still lies in the employment data, particularly if the weakening is primarily due to an oversupply from increased immigrant inflows rather than a decline in corporate job demand. In that case, the economy may not be as weak as feared.

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ASML: First Chips from New High-NA EUV Lithography Machines to Hit Market in Months

Mizuho Raises Texas Instruments Target Price to $300

Citi raises Micron Technology target price from $425 to $840

Huiyiwei Software and Amazon Web Services Announce Multi-Year Strategic Partnership

IBM, NVIDIA, and Samsung demonstrate storage 'black technology' supporting a 100-billion-scale vector database

Citigroup Raises SanDisk Price Target to $2025 from $1300

Profund Advisors Increases Stake in ASML by 16.1% to $8.56 Million

ProShare Advisors Increases Gilead Stake by 39.1% in Q4, Total Holdings Reach 2.2 Million Shares

Far EasTone signs agreement with Amazon to become an authorized reseller of its LEO satellite service in Taiwan

Western Digital Plans to Expand Off-Grid Computing to AI and High-Performance Computing

JD.com Q1 Earnings: Revenue Up 4.9%, Net Profit Down 53% as New Business Segment Suffers Massive Losses

Foxconn to produce Nvidia's high-end SXM GPU modules in Vietnam

AMD's Su: AI Creates New CPU Positioning, Predicts 1:1 CPU-GPU Ratio by 2026

HSBC raises Nvidia target price from $295 to $325

Amazon to Host New Seller Summit in Anaheim, California

TD Private Client Wealth LLC Reduces Stake in Applied Materials by 24%

U.S. Senate advances Crypto Asset Clarity Act, signaling a clearer regulatory environment

RiverFront Increases Qualcomm Stake by 48.1% to 8,038 Shares, Qualcomm Announces $20B Buyback Plan

RiverFront Q4 Increases Netflix Stake by 944.1%, Holding $1.49 Million

macOS 27 Rumored to Drop Support for Last Remaining Intel Mac Models

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Generative AI Gains Traction in U.S. Workforce, Federal Reserve Report Reveals

.NDX

The Federal Reserve's report reveals that 25% of U.S. workers have used generative AI in their jobs recently, with higher rates among those with advanced education. Most users view AI as a tool for efficiency and career growth. The report also highlights stable financial conditions for U.S. residents, though younger individuals and low-income families face increased financial pressures, with inflation being a primary concern.

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CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY: CHINA, US SHOULD JOINTLY PROMOTE AI DEVELOPMENT, GOVERNANCE

Unusual Whales

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CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY: CHINA, US SHOULD JOINTLY PROMOTE AI DEVELOPMENT, GOVERNANCE

Economists warn that the Iran war is increasing inflation expectations, pressuring the Fed to act. A U.S.-led blockade and Hormuz closure have reduced Iranian oil exports, raising global energy prices. Consequently, mortgage and bond yields are rising in the U.S. and Europe as borrowing costs increase amid inflation concerns.

Iran war fuels inflation fears as July Fed hike looms

.DJUS

The Great American Squeeze of 2026 highlights the economic struggles faced by Americans due to rising costs of living, with consumer sentiment at a 74-year low. While the wealthy benefit from a booming stock market, middle and lower-income families are increasingly burdened by debt and inflation, leading to a K-shaped economy where the divide between the rich and poor widens. This situation may signal the onset of a recession as lower-income households cut back on spending.

- The article highlights the economic struggles of American consumers facing rising costs amid stagnant wages, creating a K-shaped economic divide.  
- While wealthier households benefit from stock market gains, middle- and lower-income families increasingly rely on credit to manage basic expenses, leading to financial distress.  
- Experts warn that without significant wage growth, the economic squeeze on lower-income households will worsen, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices.

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The Great American Squeeze Of 2026

.VIX

The 10-year Treasury yield has reached a 52-week high of 4.6%, indicating potential significant market movements. This yield influences borrowing costs and stock valuations, with rising yields typically leading to a shift away from equities. Current inflationary pressures, particularly related to the Iran conflict, may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain or raise rates. Analysts are divided on whether yields will break higher or lower, with implications for future monetary policy and market stability.

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The Bond Market Just Flashed Red

Wall Street's major indices closed lower on Friday, with the Dow down 1%, S&P 500 down 1.2%, and Nasdaq down 1.5%, following a decline in tech stocks and rising U.S. Treasury yields after the U.S.-China summit.

- Wall Street’s major market averages declined on Friday due to a drop in tech stocks and rising U.S. Treasury yields after the U.S.-China summit.  
- The blue chip Dow (DJI) closed down 1%, the S&P 500 (SP500) fell by 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) decreased by 1.5%.  
- Investors are advised to monitor three key factors in the market moving forward.

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3 things to look out for on Tuesday

The Federal Reserve may struggle to cut interest rates this year due to persistent inflation concerns, with U.S. PCE inflation projected to stay above 3.5%. Factors such as inflation surprises, a stable job market, and energy price risks from the closed Strait of Hormuz are leading to a cautious policy stance.

CICC

Federal Reserve Faces Challenges in Cutting Rates Amid Inflation Concerns

April inflation surged to 3.8%, exceeding wage growth and diminishing workers' spending power. As a result, 53% of Americans with side hustles report they rely on these earnings, averaging $1,275 monthly, to cover essential expenses. This trend is evident in West Michigan, where residents are starting various ventures, indicating a national shift towards supplemental income.

- April inflation reached 3.8%, outpacing average wage growth and diminishing workers' purchasing power for the first time in three years.  
- A study found that 53% of Americans with side jobs rely on them to cover essential expenses, earning an average of $1,275 monthly.  
- The trend is illustrated locally in West Michigan, where residents are starting businesses ranging from woodworking to dog sitting, aligned with a national shift towards supplemental income.

Inflation surge pushes more Americans into side hustles

US stocks showed mixed results as easing yields countered inflation fears from rising oil prices. Brent crude oil fell nearly 2% amid reports of potential U.S. waivers for Iranian oil sales, alleviating supply concerns. Growth sectors, particularly tech, saw gains with semiconductor stocks rebounding ahead of Nvidia's earnings report.

- Equities experienced fluctuations as easing yields countered ongoing inflation concerns from rising oil prices.  
- Brent crude oil prices declined nearly 2% due to reports of potential U.S. permission for some Iranian oil sales, alleviating supply worries.  
- Growth-heavy sectors, particularly technology, saw gains as lower yields supported a recovery in semiconductor stocks ahead of Nvidia's earnings report.

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US stocks mixed as yields ease, oil falls on Iran waiver talk

Fed's Goolsbee emphasizes the importance of addressing high inflation as Warsh prepares to take over as chair. He notes the stability of the job market but warns that excessive rate cuts could exacerbate inflation. The markets are currently anticipating a 50% likelihood of a rate hike by year-end.

Investinglive

Fed's Goolsbee; Inflation has got to be front of mind when Warsh starts as chair

NASDAQ Composite Index(.IXIC.US)

Generative AI Gains Traction in U.S. Workforce, Federal Reserve Report Reveals

CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY: CHINA, US SHOULD JOINTLY PROMOTE AI DEVELOPMENT, GOVERNANCE

Iran war fuels inflation fears as July Fed hike looms

The Great American Squeeze Of 2026

The Bond Market Just Flashed Red

3 things to look out for on Tuesday

Federal Reserve Faces Challenges in Cutting Rates Amid Inflation Concerns

Inflation surge pushes more Americans into side hustles

US stocks mixed as yields ease, oil falls on Iran waiver talk

Fed's Goolsbee; Inflation has got to be front of mind when Warsh starts as chair

2026 Rate Cut Odds Plunge to 0% as Inflation Fears Overwhelm