Brilliance China

Brilliance China Automotive opened lower and extended losses in the afternoon session, closing down 5.1% at HKD 2.235, with an intraday low of HKD 2.235 and a distance of +18.9% from its 52-week low of HKD 1.88 but a -49.8% decline from the 52-week high of HKD 4.45, while the stock has lost 45.1% year-to-date. The sell-off was triggered by the company's August 11 profit warning, which flagged a 56%-61% drop in first-half pretax profit, compounded by Citi cutting its target price from HKD 3.9 to HKD 2.7 (citing BMW Brilliance's disappointing Q2 results) and Morgan Stanley lowering its target to HKD 2.9 with an Equalweight rating. While Q4 2025 revenue rose 12.2% YoY to HKD 345 million, net profit slumped 81.8% YoY to HKD 158 million, and operating income remained negative. The stock now trades below the 60-day moving average of HKD 2.272, though the 20-day MA of 2.11 provides near-term support, and valuations at 0.48x P/B and 5.1x P/E suggest the market has already priced in the earnings deterioration.

Brilliance China Automotive closed up 3.5% at HKD 2.20, driven by sentiment recovery after the recent profit warning, with the stock bottoming at HKD 2.105 in the morning session before recovering to hold high ground in the afternoon. The company warned H1 pretax profit may drop up to 61%, while Q4 net profit plunged 81.75% YoY to HKD 158 million, though revenue grew 12.18% YoY to HKD 345 million. The stock is still 50.56% below its 52-week high of HKD 4.45, but above its 20-day moving average of HKD 2.045, with a YTD decline of 45.95%. Citi maintains a target price of HKD 2.7, while Morgan Stanley has a target of HKD 2.9, with the stock trading at a low PB of 0.48x.

Brilliance China Automotive closed +6.0% at HKD 2.125, touching an intraday high of HKD 2.14 after a morning low of HKD 2.045, staging a rebound rally. The advance followed a profit warning projecting H1 pretax profit down up to 61%, which prompted Citi and Morgan Stanley to cut their price targets to HKD 2.7 and HKD 2.9 respectively, though both still above the current price. FY2025 net profit plunged >80% YoY with EPS of only HKD 0.0313. The stock remains 52.25% off its 52-week high of HKD 4.45 and down 47.79% YTD, far below the 60-day MA of HKD 2.326, while barely above the 20-day MA of HKD 2.035. Volume surged to 26.12 million shares, however, the sustainability of this rebound is questionable.

Brilliance China closed at HKD 2.060 today, after an intraday high of HKD 2.100 in the morning session and a low of HKD 2.020, before consolidating in a narrow HKD 2.030-2.060 range during the afternoon session, ending flat. Total turnover was approximately HKD 54.2 million, higher than recent sessions. Citi cut its target price to HKD 2.7 from HKD 3.9 after BMW Brilliance's 2Q results missed estimates, while Morgan Stanley also trimmed its target to HKD 2.9 with an Equalweight rating, flagging emerging earnings concerns. The company's Q4 2025 net profit plunged 81.75% YoY to HKD 158 million, despite 12.18% revenue growth, as profit contribution from the BMW joint venture weakened sharply. However, the net profit margin held steady at 45.83%, suggesting disciplined cost control.