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TME-SW

Tencent

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Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of $TENCENT(00700.HK) FY26 Q1 earnings call. For our post-results take, see 'Tencent: No Longer Resting on Past Laurels; AI Is the Way Forward'.I. Core highlights from the results. Key points are summarized below.1) Shareholder returns: Q1 buybacks totaled approx. RMB 7.9bn. Management believes the stock is undervalued, is accelerating monetization of the investment portfolio to fund continued buybacks through the year, and sees now as a particularly attractive window for repurchases.2) Outlook: CapEx is expected to increase materially vs. last year. Guidance points to a sharp step-up this year...

TENCENT

TENCENT-R

Tencent Holdings Limited

Yuanbao

Tencent HK SDR 10to1

Tencent Music

Tencent (Trans): H2 investment to ramp up; cloud to accelerate, stronger LLM to launch

Today’s Key News Recap

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0513 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) On May 12, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported April CPI rose 0.6% MoM and 3.8% YoY, with core CPI at 2.8% YoY, all higher vs. prior. Energy and shelter remain the key drivers.Inflation proved stickier than expected. Most on Wall St. now expect the Fed to delay cuts, implying a higher-for-longer rate path.2) On May 12, the U.S. Senate voted 51–45. It confirmed Kevin Warsh as a Fed Governor...

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Xiaomi Corporation

XIAOMI-WR

MediaAlpha

Miniso

POP MART

POP MART HK SDR 20to1

BABA-W

BABA-WR

Alibaba HK SDR 5to1

Alibaba

Xiaomi HK SDR 2to1

MINIMAX-W

New AI collaboration features ignite MiniMax; Xiaomi 17 Max big-screen flagship debuts | Daily News Recap

Below are Dolphin Research's notes from the $Tencent Music(TME.US) FY26 Q1 earnings call.For our earnings analysis, see 'With Ximalaya integrated, can Tencent Music win the defensive game?'.Key highlights recap: 1) Shareholder returns: FY2025 cash dividend of $0.12 per ordinary share ($0.24 per ADS), paid in Apr. 2026, totaling approx. $317mn. The two-year share repurchase announced in Mar. 2025 is on track for completion on schedule...

喜马拉雅控股

TME (Trans): Intense Competition; Deepening WeChat Channels Collaboration in 2024

Financial Analysis

$Tencent Music(TME.US) Q1 results were largely in line with expectations, consistent with last quarter's guidance. Expenses came in slightly lower than the Street had modeled.Overall, amid intensifying competition, core subscription growth is showing fatigue. The company is leaning more on non-subscription music adjacencies and derivative monetization to drive revenue.However, more noteworthy than the print is the pre-mkt disclosure that the Ximalaya acquisition has cleared regulatory approval. This not only enables TME to accelerate integration and tap audiobook users, but also paves the way to resume buybacks as a 'self-help' move...

TME + Ximalaya: Can It Win the Defensive Battle?

TME 1Q26 First Take: Q1 results were largely in line with prior guidance, with slightly lower-than-expected opex driving a modest earnings beat. Core music subs growth slowed under intensifying competition, while management pushed into non-subscription adjacencies. More notable than the print, pre-mkt approval of the Ximalaya acquisition paves the way for faster integration and access to audiobook users. It also clears the path to resume buybacks; with healthy cash generation, a largely unused two-year RMB 1bn repurchase authorization, and a RMB 370mn dividend, the implied total shareholder return is ~6.2% on a RMB 14bn market cap if executed as planned. (1) Total revenue grew 7%, with subscription revenue up 6.6%. Management stopped disclosing paying-user metrics from this quarter. Based on last quarter's strategy to lower the paywall to improve stickiness, we estimate Q1 net adds of ~1mn subs, with ARPPU down QoQ to RMB 11.7 (for reference). (2) Non-subscription revenue (ads, offline concerts, digital albums, etc.) rose 28%, with growth decelerating QoQ. The slowdown likely reflects a late Chinese New Year amplifying concerts' off-season effects, yet growth remains robust. (3) Social entertainment revenue fell 11%, worsening further. Beyond ongoing pressure on live streaming, QM data suggest the karaoke business is being hit by traditional peers and AI, as one of AI's main C-end use cases is song covers that overlap with the K-song experience. As a result, WeSing MAUs continue to decline. (4) GPM was 44.9%, up 30bps QoQ, helped by mix shift toward higher-margin non-sub businesses (e.g., ads) and scaled content-cost optimization. On opex, S&amp;M stayed elevated, reflecting sustained user acquisition and marketing efforts, while G&amp;A was flat YoY and down QoQ, likely due to headcount optimization.$Tencent Music(TME.US) $TME-SW(01698.HK)

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0512 | Dolphin Research Focus — Macro/Industry. The BLS will release Apr CPI at 20:30 Beijing time on Tue, with the street expecting 3.7%–3.8% YoY and 0.6% MoM, as core inflation is supported by rents and oil.The print is a key input for the Fed's Jun FOMC. A beat would curb rate-cut odds and lift UST yields, pressuring global risk assets near term. A miss would likely revive easing trades, benefiting growth and HK tech...

Deutsche Bank AG

Amazon

KUAISHOU-W

KUAISHOU-WR

Kuaishou HK SDR 5to1

JD-SW

JD-SWR

JD HK SDR 10to1

JD.com

Kuaishou to spin off 'Kling' for a standalone listing; Tencent holds the line on social | Daily News Recap

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0511 | Dolphin Research Watch: 🐬 Macro/Industry update. U.S. President Trump will pay a state visit to China on May 13–15, the first by a U.S. president in nine years.This leader-level diplomacy sets the strategic tone and should help manage differences and stabilize U.S.-China relations. It adds certainty globally; watch trade and tech engagement for near-term catalysts and long-term impacts on asset prices.2) Iran-U.S. talks have deteriorated, with Iran demanding that oil sanctions be lifted within 30 days and asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump called this 'completely unacceptable'...

Alphabet

Alphabet - C

US Global Sea to Sky Cargo ETF

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Baidu HK SDR 10to1

Baidu

GOOGL issues JPY bonds to fuel the AI race; BABA integrates Qwen with Taobao to double down on smart shopping | Daily News Recap

Meta Platforms

TCEHY: Time to Ditch the Boomer Vibe, Turn Up the Heat on AI!---

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0318 | Dolphin Research Watchlist: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) The Fed kicked off its two-day FOMC meeting on Mar. 17 local time. The market broadly expects the policy rate to stay at 3.50%–3.75%.However, sticky inflation (PPI at 2.9%) and a Middle East-driven oil spike (WTI above $100) are tightening expectations for 2026 cuts. Investors are dialing back the number of cuts priced in. If the dot plot due on the 18th indicates just one cut in 2026—or none at all...

Microsoft

Micron Tech

Lululemon

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H World

Atour

MiniMax debuts M2.7, shows a 'self-evolving' model; META trims 'metaverse' again | Daily News Recap

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Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of the FY2025 earnings call for $Tencent Music(TME.US) and $TME-SW(01698.HK). For our earnings take, see 'Tencent Music: Soda Music's big push — are the easy days over?'I. Key takeaways1) Shareholder returns: announced a FY2025 cash dividend of $0.24 per ADS, with total payout approx. $368mn, a sharp increase vs. last year. The buyback program still has sizable remaining authorization and will continue subject to market conditions...

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TME (Trans): Agile amid intense competition, prioritizing shareholder returns

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Tencent Music Completes Acquisition of Ximalaya, Making It a Wholly-Owned Subsidiary

Tencent Approved to Acquire Ximalaya, Q1 2026 Performance Shows Steady Growth

Orient Securities forecasts Tencent Music's 2026-2028 net profit and maintains Buy rating

JPMorgan Cuts Tencent Music 2026-27 Earnings Forecasts and Target Price to 40 HKD

CICC lowers Tencent Music target price to HKD 55.5, maintains outperform rating

Tencent Music's Acquisition of Ximalaya Approved with Five Regulatory Restrictions

Mizuho cuts TME's target price to $18 per share

Barclays Analyst Reiterates Buy Rating on Tencent Music Entertainment Group

CBI Downgrades TME Rating to Hold

CICC Adjusts TME-SW Earnings Forecast and Target Price

Tencent Music Holds Q1 2026 Earnings Call

Goldman Sachs Releases TME Earnings Analysis and Adjusts Target Price

CFRA Maintains Hold Rating on TME, Cuts Price Target

SAMR Approves Tencent's Acquisition of Himalaya's Equity

SAMR Approves Tencent's Acquisition of Ximalaya Shares With Conditions

TME-SW released FY2026 Q1 earnings on May 12 Pre-Market (BJT), actual revenue HKD 8.951 B (forecast HKD 8.961 B), actual EPS HKD 0.7596

Tencent Music Releases 2025 Annual Report, Revealing Financial and Equity Data

TME-SW to Release FY2026 Q1 Earnings on May 12 Pre-Market (BJT), Forecast Revenue HKD 9.014 B

TME Stock Undervalued, Intrinsic Value Estimated at $14.75

Asset Management One Reduced Holdings in Tencent Music

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Pinned News

置顶新闻

Orient Securities Sticks to Its Buy Rating for Tencent Music Entertainment Group Class A (1698)

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (01698.HK, TME.US) Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (01698.HK, TME.US) Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Performance for 2025

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (01698.HK, TME.US) Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (01698.HK, TME.US) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (01698.HK, TME.US) 2024 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (01698.HK, TME.US) Q3 2024 Earnings Conference Call

Orient Securities has reaffirmed its Buy rating for Tencent Music Entertainment Group Class A (1698), setting a price target of HK$52.39. The stock closed at HK$34.24, with a consensus price target of HK$55.67, indicating a potential upside of 62.59%. Goldman Sachs also maintains a Buy rating with a target of HK$59.00.

- Orient Securities has reaffirmed a Buy rating on Tencent Music Entertainment Group Class A, setting a price target of HK$52.39.  
- The company's shares closed at HK$34.24, while the analyst consensus indicates a Moderate Buy with a target of HK$55.67, suggesting a 62.59% upside.  
- Additionally, Goldman Sachs also maintains a Buy rating for the stock with a price target of HK$59.00.

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PICC GROUP(01339) rose 7.41%, with a trading turnover 822.3 Million HKD, and a year-to-date fell 16.3%. CMSC(06099) rose 6.48%, with a trading turnover 275.5 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 6%. KNOWLEDGE ATLAS(02513) fell 9.41%, with a trading turnover 1.2 Billion HKD, and a year-to-date rose 786.4%. MINIMAX-W(00100) fell 7.19%, with a trading turnover 612.5 Million HKD, and a year-to-date rose 350%.

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Top 5 HK Stock Gainers/Losers (>100B) (5.19)

On May 19, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HSI) showed mixed performance, rising 0.39% to 25,774.47 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.11%. Mobile gaming stocks gained, but the semiconductor sector faced declines. Notable individual stock movements included Tencent Music up 4.96% and Innoscience Technology down 7.98%. Total market turnover reached HKD 145.186 billion.

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STOCKS | Hong Kong Stocks Show Mixed Performance Amid Volatility

CLSA reports that TME-SW has completed its acquisition of Ximalaya for USD1.26 billion in cash and 175 million shares, valuing the deal at approximately USD2.7 billion. The impact on Tencent Music Entertainment Group's EPS is expected to be neutral. The acquisition is anticipated to enhance gross margins but dilute operating margins due to Ximalaya's cost structure. CLSA rates Tencent Music Entertainment Group as Outperform with target prices of HKD60.3 and USD15.4.

- CLSA reported that Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME-SW) has completed its acquisition of Ximalaya for USD 1.26 billion in cash and 175 million Class A shares, estimating the total transaction value at USD 2.7 billion.  
- The acquisition is expected to have a neutral impact on TME's EPS while enhancing gross margins due to Ximalaya's high-quality revenue streams, though it may dilute operating margins.  
- CLSA maintains an "Outperform" rating for TME, projecting target prices of HKD 60.3 for H-shares and USD 15.4 for U.S. shares, anticipating benefits from an enriched content ecosystem and expanded user channels.

AASTOCKS News

CLSA: TME-SW  Completes Acquisition of Ximalaya; EPS Impact Expected Neutral

Tencent Music Entertainment has completed its $2.6 billion acquisition of Ximalaya, a major Chinese audio platform. The deal, approved by China's market regulator, includes cash and shares for Ximalaya shareholders. This acquisition enhances Tencent Music's presence in the audio market, expanding into podcasts and audiobooks.

- Tencent Music Entertainment has completed the acquisition of Ximalaya for approximately 18.6 billion yuan ($2.6 billion).  
- Shareholders and employees of Ximalaya will receive up to $1.26 billion in cash and up to 175 million shares of Tencent Music Class A.  
- The deal, approved by China’s market regulator with conditions, enhances Tencent Music's presence in China’s audio market, broadening its offerings beyond music.

TechNode

Tencent Music completes $2.6 billion acquisition of podcast platform Ximalaya

Tencent Music Entertainment Group's shares rose over 5% on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange following the announcement of its acquisition of Ximalaya, a major audio content platform in China. This strategic acquisition aims to enhance Tencent Music's content offerings and expand its market presence in the audio streaming sector.

Tencent Music Shares Rise Over 5% Following Acquisition of Ximalaya

JPMorgan has reduced its earnings forecasts for TME-SWby approximately 3% for 2026 and 2027, citing a slowdown in paid conversions among price-sensitive users. The firm lowered the stock's target price from HKD48 to HKD40 while maintaining a 'Neutral' rating, noting that the 1Q results confirmed concerns for the streaming business but showed resilience in the IP and non-subscription sectors.

- JPMorgan has lowered TME-SW's earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by approximately 3%, citing a slowdown in paid conversion for price-sensitive users.  
- The report cites TME-SW's 1Q results, indicating a decline in its streaming business but confirming the strength of its IP business and non-subscription monetization.  
- JPMorgan reduced the stock's target price from HKD 48 to HKD 40, maintaining a "Neutral" rating, while noting a balanced risk-reward profile.

JPM Cuts TME-SW  EPS Forecasts by About 3%, Lowers TP to HKD40

TME-SW(01698.HK)

Orient Securities Sticks to Its Buy Rating for Tencent Music Entertainment Group Class A (1698)

Top 5 HK Stock Gainers/Losers (>100B) (5.19)

STOCKS | Hong Kong Stocks Show Mixed Performance Amid Volatility

CLSA: TME-SW Completes Acquisition of Ximalaya; EPS Impact Expected Neutral

Tencent Music completes $2.6 billion acquisition of podcast platform Ximalaya

Tencent Music Shares Rise Over 5% Following Acquisition of Ximalaya

JPM Cuts TME-SW EPS Forecasts by About 3%, Lowers TP to HKD40

CICC Cuts TME-SW TP to HKD55.5; 1Q Profit In Line

Tencent Music Entertainment Group Class A (1698) Gets a Hold from UBS

Tencent (Trans): H2 investment to ramp up; cloud to accelerate, stronger LLM to launch

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