Huaan France CAC40 ETF(QDII)

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European Central Bank member Olli Rehn indicated that data suggests the onset of stagflation due to the Iran war and rising energy prices. He noted slight growth in the euro area and inflation at 3%. While the current shock is less severe than in 2022, it deviates from the ECB's outlook. Policymakers are cautious about interest rate hikes, awaiting more data on the conflict's impact. Eurozone growth is expected to soften, with France reporting a rise in unemployment to 8.1%. Investors anticipate a rate increase in June, but officials remain hesitant to confirm.

- European Central Bank governing council member Olli Rehn warned of signs of stagflation due to the Iran conflict and rising energy prices.  
- He noted that eurozone growth for the first quarter was only slightly positive, with inflation accelerating to 3%, and emphasized that current shocks are not as severe as seen during the price surge in 2022.  
- Despite inflation surpassing the ECB's 2% target, policymakers remain cautious about interest rate hikes, waiting for further information on the wider impacts of the conflict.

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ECB’s Rehn says data show first signs of stagflationary shock

Prior +1.7%HICP +2.5% vs +2.5% y/y prelimPrior +2.0%More to come..

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France April final CPI +2.2% vs +2.2% y/y prelim

French unemployment has unexpectedly climbed to its highest level in five years, signaling economic vulnerability as the Iran conflict unfolds. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting the challenges facing France's economy during this period of geopolitical tension. The rise in unemployment adds to concerns about the country's economic stability and its ability to navigate the impacts of the ongoing conflict.

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French Unemployment Reaches Five-Year High Amid Iran Conflict

ECB policymaker Nagel stated that the decision for a rate hike in June will depend on economic data, despite the market pricing in an 88% probability for a hike. He noted that while inflation has risen due to energy prices, economic activity is slowing, and the ECB's mandate requires action if inflation expectations de-anchor. There are expectations for three rate hikes by year-end, but the situation remains uncertain due to potential geopolitical developments affecting oil prices.

- The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates in June, with two increases anticipated in its baseline scenario.  
- Despite signals for a rate hike unless the war ends and oil prices drop substantially, recent economic data does not strongly support the aggressive increases priced in by the market.  
- Currently, there is an 88% probability of a rate hike in June, though this is not absolute, as ongoing geopolitical issues could impact oil prices significantly.

ECB policymaker Nagel says data will decide ECB's decision in June

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European markets showed a calmer mood despite ongoing US-Iran tensions. The USD/JPY rose towards 158.00, while gold consolidated amid the stalemate. ECB officials expressed concerns over core inflation and the need for a resolution on Hormuz. French inflation surged, and Germany's wholesale prices increased. Eurozone Q1 GDP was steady at +0.1%. WTI crude fell 0.4% to $101.75, and European stocks were mixed, with the DAX up 0.8% and CAC 40 down 0.3%. US futures showed cautious optimism, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2%.

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investingLive European markets wrap: A calmer mood even as US-Iran tensions simmer

Euro area Q1 GDP confirmed at 0.1% Q/Q, the weakest in nine quarters, with industrial output falling 0.9% Q/Q, the sharpest drop in two years. Employment growth slowed to 0.1% Q/Q, with Germany and France facing significant job losses. Consumer confidence is declining, leading to expectations of reduced household spending and further economic pressure in Q2. The ECB may need to maintain an accommodative stance due to these economic challenges, particularly in France and Germany, which heavily influence euro area demand.

- The Eurozone's GDP confirmed a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth for the first quarter, marking one of the weakest expansions in over two years.  
- Industrial production declined sharply by 0.9%, primarily due to weak energy output and a significant drop in non-durable goods, while employment growth slowed notably to just 0.1%.  
- Consumer confidence is declining, and businesses plan to cut jobs at the fastest rate in five years, suggesting further demand-side pressures and potentially negative impacts on GDP growth in the upcoming quarter.

ICYMI - Euro area GDP weakest in 9 quarters, jobs slow, industry falls sharpest in 2 years

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The European Central Bank (ECB) may raise interest rates if the conflict in Iran causes sustained inflation, according to Isabel Schnabel, an ECB Executive Board member. She highlighted the need for close monitoring of the situation, as prolonged inflation could require policy changes. The ECB is focused on maintaining price stability amid geopolitical uncertainties.

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ECB May Raise Interest Rates if Iran Conflict Impacts Inflation

The ECB is likely to hike rates unless the outlook improves significantly, as stated by Nagel. A rate hike in June is anticipated unless the war ends and oil prices drop. The market estimates a 72% chance of a rate hike at the next meeting, influenced by ongoing US-Iran tensions and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for the global economy.

- The European Central Bank (ECB) may increase interest rates in June unless the economic outlook significantly improves.  
- The current market anticipates a 72% probability of a rate hike, linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions and oil prices.  
- The stability of the global economy is highlighted as being contingent on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

ECB's Nagel: The ECB is likely to hike rates unless the outlook improves markedly

ECB's Muller emphasizes the need for a quick resolution regarding the Strait of Hormuz to avoid a rate hike in June. Despite rising inflation due to the US-Iran conflict, he remains optimistic about the Eurozone's economic foundation, which has not entered stagflation. The Eurozone GDP showed a modest 0.1% growth in Q1, with a slowdown expected in Q2. ECB President Lagarde notes a "double uncertainty" regarding energy shocks and their effects on wages and prices, suggesting potential interest rate hikes if conditions do not improve.

- The Eurozone has not yet fallen into stagflation, and there is no reason to talk about recession.  
- Müller expresses cautious optimism about the economic fundamentals despite rising inflation and economic activity suppression from geopolitical tensions.  
- The European Central Bank needs to respond quickly to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to avoid interest rate increases in June, with officials warning that two rate hikes may be necessary if conditions do not improve.

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ECB's Muller: The ECB will need a fast resolution on Hormuz to hold in June

European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane has stated that the increase in sales price expectations suggests that production cost pressures will lead to higher output prices in the coming months. According to Jin10, Lane emphasized the correlation between rising production costs and the anticipated increase in output prices, highlighting the potential impact on the economy.

ECB Chief Economist: Rising Sales Price Expectations Indicate Higher Output Prices Ahead

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