TSM 1Q26 First Take: Another solid print, with topline growth largely foreshadowed by the monthly ops data.Revenue came in at $35.9bn, above the high end of guide ($35.8bn), aided partly by FX tailwinds from USD strength vs. TWD. On a TWD basis, revenue rose 8.4% QoQ, implying an even stronger underlying performance.
The more consequential takeaways this quarter are GPM, capex and forward guidance.These will drive investor focus into the back half.
① GPM: GPM reached 66.2%, near the raised buy-side bar (66–66.5%), driven by better ASPs and lower unit costs as scale builds.Management guided next-quarter GPM to 65.5–67.5%, broadly in line with the revised buy-side range (66–66.5%). The shift of AI chips from 5nm to 3nm should continue to lift blended ASPs and margin.
② Capex: Capex was $11.1bn in the quarter.With the 2026 capex plan already raised to $52–56bn, implied capex for the remaining three quarters is $40.9–44.9bn. Spend is back-half weighted at an Avg. $13–15bn per quarter, consistent with ASML’s full-year guide calling for a stronger 2H.
③ Outlook: Next-quarter revenue is guided to $39.0–40.2bn, above the raised street view (~$38.8bn), underscoring smooth migration of AI workloads to 3nm.For 2026, management lifted revenue growth to 30%+ (from ~30%), signaling confidence and aligning with mainstream institutional expectations.
Overall, TSM delivered another strong set of results.Revenue hit a new high while GPM stepped up to 66%. Even after consensus moved higher, the company still offered above-consensus quarterly guidance.
Within the current AI silicon stack, TSM’s lead in technology and capacity remains clear, giving it pricing and allocation leverage with downstream customers such as NVDA, GOOGL and AMD.It is positioned as the ‘steady and highly profitable’ winner of this AI capex cycle. For more, follow Dolphin Research’s detailed takeaways and Trans. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Leverage Shares 2X Long TSM Daily ETF(TSMG.US) $Direxion Daily TSM Bull 2X Shares(TSMX.US)
