VanEck China Bond ETF

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China is tightening approvals for overseas borrowings, causing companies to seek cash as US$100 billion in bonds are due this year. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is taking four to six months for approvals, double the previous time, with some cases extending to nine months. This delay is due to increased scrutiny on repayment details. Companies are turning to short-term bonds to avoid defaults, complicating their cash flow management. The NDRC's stricter measures aim to control rising debt from weaker enterprises and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs).

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China delays foreign debt sales with US$100 billion of bonds due

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The 10-year treasury yield has decisively broken below 1.75%, while extremely loose liquidity conditions combined with a shortage of assets have driven the bond market to rise for three consecutive weeks. However, Huatai Securities and Zhongyou Securities have issued joint warnings: a structure dominated by mutual fund trading desks 'lifting each other up' hides underlying fragility; the central bank's stance remains a sword of Damocles overhead; the 'smoothest phase' may be nearing its end; those who missed the rally chasing the uptrend can only prolong the duration but cannot alter the medium-term risk landscape

- The 10-year government bond yield has dropped below 1.75%, while the 30-year yield nears 2.25%, reflecting strong market conditions driven by excess liquidity and the demand for assets.  
- Recent reports from Huatai Securities and Zhongyou Securities warn that although risks remain controllable in the short term, the market's most favorable phase is nearing an end, with emerging mid-term risks.  
- Key drivers of the current market include sustained liquidity conditions, net inflows into bond funds, the clarity of ultra-long-term treasury bond issuance, and a downward adjustment in bill rates, indicating overall weak credit demand.

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After Breaking Key Levels, Where is the Bond Market Heading

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The U.S. debt crisis has intensified, with $90.9 billion in U.S. Treasuries being sold off, leading to a dollar liquidity crisis. Meanwhile, China issued 332 billion yuan in government bonds on April 10, which sold out in one minute, demonstrating strong market demand. Although China's government bond yields are lower than those of the U.S., investors have high confidence due to its sound fiscal situation. In contrast, countries holding U.S. Treasuries have decreased, especially Japan, which is facing high prices and pressure from yen depreciation. This war has damaged the credibility of the U.S., prompting central banks around the world to accelerate the sale of U.S. Treasuries

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$90.9 billion in U.S. bonds were sold off, $332 billion in Chinese government bonds sold out in 1 minute, and trillions of capital are betting on China

Investors are increasingly turning to Chinese bonds, which are performing well amid global bond market declines. China's low inflation and energy preparedness are seen as factors that allow it to avoid interest rate hikes, contrasting with rising rates in other economies. In March, Chinese debt attracted $2.5 billion in foreign inflows, while other emerging markets faced $16.7 billion in outflows. The yield curve is steepening, with short-term yields falling, while long-term yields remain under pressure due to concerns over inflation and economic stability. China's bond market is viewed as a safe haven amid global uncertainties.

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Analysis-seeking shelter from war and stagflation? Take a look at China's bond market

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The well-known hedge fund Jige Capital predicts that the Chinese stock market is expected to rise by 10% by the end of 2026, benefiting from supportive policies, low valuations, and expectations of a bottoming out in the real estate sector. This judgment is consistent with the predictions of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase. CEO Stephen Jen pointed out that regulatory policies will boost corporate profits, and the contraction in real estate supply along with a recovery in demand will provide new momentum for the stock market. Additionally, if the conflict in the Middle East calms down, it will create further benefits

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The founder of the "Dollar Smile" latest prediction: China's stock market is about to rise by 10%

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China’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.80%, its lowest in over a month, as investors sought safer assets after failed US–Iran peace talks and President Trump’s naval blockade announcement. Amid the Middle East tensions, Chinese bonds are seen as a safe haven, bolstered by energy resilience and policy support. The yield has only risen about 3 bps recently, contrasting with larger gains in US and European bonds. Investors are now awaiting significant economic data, including trade figures and GDP.

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China 10Y Yield Hits Over 1-Month Low

Treasury futures opened, with the 30-year main contract flat from yesterday, the 10-year main contract up 0.01%, the 5-year main contract up 0.04%, and the 2-year main contract up 0.01%

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The report from the international financial research institution Gavekal points out that the current global market is turbulent, and international funds are turning to Chinese government bonds as a safe-haven asset. Chinese government bonds have shown resilience after geopolitical shocks, becoming a viable alternative reserve asset. Compared to U.S. Treasury bonds, Chinese long-term government bonds have remained relatively stable and have been one of the few fixed-income markets to outperform U.S. inflation since 2012. China's industrial and trade position has enhanced the attractiveness of its sovereign debt, supporting the "safe haven" status of Chinese government bonds

Financial research institution Gavekal: The hedging properties of Chinese government bonds are prominent

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Hubei Province recently issued various maturities of local bonds, including 5-year general bonds, 10-year and 15-year other special bonds, 20-year and 30-year other special bonds, as well as 10-year ordinary special bonds. The issuance scale ranges from 739 million yuan to 15.178 billion yuan, with issuance rates between 1.61% and 2.56%, and the marginal multiples vary, reaching a maximum of 13.49 times

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A recent Nanos Research Group poll indicates that Canadians are increasingly open to purchasing Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). In 2026, 53% of respondents stated that the origin of the EV would not influence their buying decision, a significant shift from 2024 when 61% were less likely to buy a Chinese EV. The Canadian government is also enhancing incentives for EVs and establishing new emission standards, alongside a plan to import a quota of affordable Chinese-made EVs with reduced tariffs over the next five years.

VanEck China Bond ETF(CBON.US)

China delays foreign debt sales with US$100 billion of bonds due

After Breaking Key Levels, Where is the Bond Market Heading

$90.9 billion in U.S. bonds were sold off, $332 billion in Chinese government bonds sold out in 1 minute, and trillions of capital are betting on China

Analysis-seeking shelter from war and stagflation? Take a look at China's bond market

The founder of the "Dollar Smile" latest prediction: China's stock market is about to rise by 10%