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AMPLITECH GROUP INC. COM USD0.001 (S/R 18/07/2026)

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US April CPI rose to 3.8% y/y, slightly above the expected 3.7%, driven by higher energy prices and reaccelerating shelter costs. Core inflation also increased, with the ex food/energy measure rising by 0.4% m/m. CIBC suggests that inflation will continue to rise in May, keeping the Fed sidelined until oil prices decrease significantly. Market expectations indicate no rate changes until year-end, as the Fed is unlikely to act until inflation approaches 2% or unemployment nears 5%.

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Fed still sidelined even as US inflation picks up in April - CIBC

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The 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) could reach 3.2% if inflation trends continue. The COLA is determined by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), with predictions varying among analysts. The Senior Citizens League estimates a 2.8% increase, while Mary Johnson forecasts 3.2%. Concerns exist regarding the CPI-W's focus on worker costs rather than retirees, suggesting a potential need for a more suitable measure like the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E). The official COLA will be announced in October.

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The 2027 COLA could be as high as 3.2% -- if today's inflation holds

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Consumer prices in the U.S. rose by 0.9% in March, matching economist estimates, as reported by the Labor Department. This follows a 0.3% increase in February. The rise in the consumer price index indicates ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy.

- The U.S. consumer price index increased by 0.9 percent in March, as reported by the Labor Department.  
- This rise followed a 0.3 percent increase in February and met economists' expectations.  
- The data reflects ongoing trends in inflation, impacting economic conditions.

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U.S. Consumer Price Increase In Line With Estimates In March

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U.S. short-term interest rate futures experienced a partial retreat after the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. According to Jin10, the CPI data prompted a reassessment of market expectations regarding future interest rate movements. The report's impact on the futures market reflects investor sentiment and adjustments in anticipation of potential monetary policy changes. Analysts are closely monitoring these developments as they could influence broader economic conditions and financial markets.

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U.S. Short-Term Interest Rate Futures Retreat Following CPI Report

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Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research posted on X, questions the PCE-CPI chart's residual seasonality over 40 years of data. He asks why this phenomenon isn't observed in other years.

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Jim Bianco Questions PCE-CPI Chart's Residual Seasonality

Citigroup interest rate trading strategist Benjamin Wiltshire stated in an interview with Bloomberg that the market underestimates future inflation in the United States, and investors may not fully recognize the resilience of American consumers. The market may need to adjust its expectations for inflation. He pointed out that the market seems to firmly believe that inflation will decline, but the U.S. is still in a structurally high inflation environment. He believes that this situation makes inflation-linked trading more attractive and recommends buying five-year inflation forward contracts, considering their pricing of about 2.5% to be too low, below the sustained core inflation in the U.S. of just under 3%

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Citigroup points out that the market underestimates future inflation in the United States and may need to adjust expectations