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Emerging market stocks are hitting new highs, driven by Asian AI firms and Latin American commodity exporters.

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VG Em Mkts

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Emerging market stocks are outperforming the S&P 500. How to play the rally.

Emerging market stocks and currencies fell on Thursday due to concerns over escalating tensions in Iran, rising oil prices, and a hawkish US Federal Reserve. Oil prices surged over 7%, reaching a four-year high, amid fears of supply disruptions. Despite the daily decline, MSCI's indexes are on track for their best monthly performance since November 2022. Regional markets showed mixed results, with South Korea and Taiwan achieving significant monthly gains. The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged revealed divisions within the board, adding to market uncertainty.

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EM stocks dip on Iran fears, eye best month since 2022

M Stanley has indicated that emerging market equities have not entered a new long-term bull market. While there are investment opportunities for portfolio risk diversification, other asset classes may offer similar benefits with a higher Sharpe Ratio. The firm highlights high valuations, cyclical earnings, and geopolitical risks in emerging markets. Investors should limit their exposure in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to the global equity benchmark and focus on selective stocks, particularly in AI and energy sectors.

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Morgan Stanley

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M Stanley: Emerging Market Equities Have Not Entered a New Long-Term Bull Market

Asian stock markets rose as investors shifted focus from Middle East tensions to fundamentals and negotiations. The MSCI Asia Pacific index increased by 0.8%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index regained losses from the past two months. Analysts believe this indicates that the peak of uncertainty has passed, driven by optimism in negotiations, a rebound in AI trading, and a renewed emphasis on corporate fundamentals as earnings season begins.

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Asian stock markets rose as investors bet that the "peak of uncertainty" had passed.

Emerging-market bond sales are surging as issuers from Brazil and Turkey take advantage of improving market conditions to secure financing. This renewed activity follows a stagnation last month and indicates a broader trend of emerging markets leveraging favorable dynamics to strengthen their financial positions, as reported by Bloomberg on X.

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Nomura Holdings, Inc.

Emerging-Market Bond Sales Surge as Markets Rebound

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1% in its latest World Economic Outlook report, and expects it to be 3.2% in 2027. The IMF pointed out that the conflicts in the Middle East pose a test to the resilience of the global economy, and uncertainty will persist until 2027. The global inflation rate forecast has also been raised to 4.4% for 2026 and 3.7% for 2027. The economic growth expectations for emerging markets and developing economies have been more significantly affected, with a downward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points for 2026

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VG Financial

IMF: Significantly lowers the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1%, inflation will reignite

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Emerging and developing economies in Europe and Central Asia are facing a significant slowdown due to rising energy prices linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, according to the World Bank. The region's growth is projected to decline to 2.1% in 2026, down from 2.6% in 2025, with energy importers particularly affected. The report highlights that while energy exporters may benefit temporarily, most countries will experience increased fiscal pressures. Russia's growth is expected to slow to 0.8%, and Turkey's growth forecast has been reduced to 2.8% due to rising costs.

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VanEck Russia ETF

Developing countries in Europe, Central Asia face slowdown, World Bank says

MSCI Inc. MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index posts largest gain since November 2022, currency index rises

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ISHRS MSCI Em S-Cap(EEMS.US)