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Nomura Securities has lowered its GDP growth forecast for the Philippines in 2026 from 5.0% to 4.6%. This revision follows weak GDP growth data, with a decline from 3.0% to 2.8% in the first quarter, influenced by domestic corruption scandals and fiscal tightening. The report anticipates continued weak growth momentum in the first half of the year, exacerbated by reduced private investment and rising energy prices due to Middle East tensions, which have increased inflation and diminished household purchasing power.

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Nomura Securities Lowers Philippines 2026 GDP Growth Forecast

Philippine economic growth unexpectedly slowed to 2.8% in Q1, below the 3.3% forecast, amid rising inflation and investment decline. Consumer spending rose 3%, while government spending increased by 4.8%. The economy is impacted by high energy costs from the Middle East conflict and a corruption scandal affecting public investment. The central bank faces challenges in supporting the economy due to peso weakness and surging prices. The growth rate lags behind regional neighbors like Indonesia and Vietnam, with inflation soaring past 7%.

- The Philippines experienced an unexpected economic slowdown in the first quarter, with a GDP growth of 2.8%, below the 3.3% median forecast.  
- Investment declined by 3.3% and industrial production fell by 0.1%, while consumer and government spending increased by 3% and 4.8%, respectively.  
- Rising energy costs due to Middle Eastern conflicts and a recent corruption scandal have hindered economic performance, leaving little room for the Central Bank to support the economy amidst soaring inflation.

Businesstimes News

Philippine growth unexpectedly slows as inflation risks rise

The Philippine central bank is committed to taking necessary actions to achieve its 3% inflation target, as inflation surged to 7.2% in April, influenced by global oil price shocks and ongoing Middle East conflicts. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) noted a broad-based increase in services inflation, indicating rising underlying price pressures. The BSP raised rates in April and anticipates average inflation to exceed 4% in 2026 and 2027, with inflation expectations increasing, posing risks to the 3% target.

- The Philippine central bank is ready to take action to bring inflation back to its 3% target, following a higher-than-expected inflation rate of 7.2% in April.  
- The rise in inflation is attributed to increased global oil and fertilizer prices due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, with the central bank anticipating an average inflation rate of 6.3% for 2026.  
- A recent interest rate hike was implemented as a precaution against worsening inflation expectations, which pose a risk of deviating from the central bank's target.

MorningStar

Philippine Central Bank Vows Necessary Action to Hit 3% Inflation Target

The Philippines' Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged 7.2% YoY in April, driven by a 21% increase in transport prices, exceeding expectations. The CPI rose 2.6% MoM, the highest since January 2000. Analysts predict the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas may need to raise interest rates aggressively to combat inflation, with potential hikes exceeding 25 bps. The peso weakened to 61.6540 per USD, nearing its historical low, amid ongoing inflationary pressures linked to the Middle East conflict.

- The Philippines Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 7.2% in April, driven by a 21% increase in transportation costs, significantly exceeding market expectations.  
- Analysts predict that the Central Bank of the Philippines may need to raise interest rates more aggressively to tackle inflation pressures exacerbated by Middle Eastern conflicts, following a previous 25 basis points increase to 4.5%.  
- The Philippine peso fell 0.15% to 61.6540 against the dollar, nearing historic lows, marking it as one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia since the conflict began in February.

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Philippines Apr CPI Surges 7.2% YoY, Far Exceeding Expectations; Analysts See Rising Rate Hike Pressure in Jun

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The upcoming week will focus on U.S. jobs data and the federal budget, with expectations for tax reforms and spending restraint to support fiscal sustainability. New Zealand's unemployment rate is projected to hold at 5.4%, while Asian PMIs will reflect manufacturers' responses to fluctuating commodity prices amid geopolitical tensions. Southeast Asian GDP data will show resilience, with the Philippines expected to grow 4.3% and Indonesia 5.6%. Inflation data from various countries, including Thailand and South Korea, is anticipated to rise due to higher energy costs. Hong Kong's GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 3.5%.

- Attention is focused on the upcoming federal budget due May 12, with expectations of tax reforms and spending restraint to support fiscal sustainability and control inflation.  
- Economists are forecasting fluctuations in unemployment rates and GDP growth in various Southeast Asian countries amid geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs.  
- Notably, inflation in South Korea is predicted to rise, while Taiwan's economy may show significant growth driven by AI demand despite inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict.

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Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Jobs Data in Focus -2-

The Philippine Central Bank expects the inflation rate for April 2026 to be between 5.6% and 6.4%. The bank will remain vigilant and utilize upcoming data to guide its focus on inflation and economic growth prospects.

Philippine Central Bank to Monitor Inflation and Economic Growth

Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) reported a cautiously optimistic Q1 earnings call, highlighting a net income of PHP 16.92 billion, up 1.7% year-on-year. Total revenues increased by 13.9% to PHP 50.92 billion, driven by strong net interest income. Despite rising provisions and operating expenses, BPI maintained a robust net interest margin of 4.57%. The bank's customer base grew to 18.7 million, with significant growth in retail lending. However, operating expenses surged 15.8%, and provisions rose 83.3%, prompting a cautious outlook for the year ahead.

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BPI Earnings Call: Solid Core, Cautious Outlook

The Philippine Central Bank has reported a worsening inflation outlook due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, which have increased uncertainty in global markets and affected commodity prices and supply chains. The bank stresses the importance of monitoring these developments closely, as they could significantly impact the Philippine economy. It is also considering policy adjustments to address the negative effects on inflation and maintain economic stability.

Philippine Central Bank: Inflation Outlook Worsens Due to Middle East Conflict

The Philippine stock index rose 1% intraday

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The United States and the Philippines are set to create a 4,000-acre industrial hub in the Luzon Economic Corridor, aimed at securing essential inputs for American and global supply chains. This site will be designated as an Economic Security Zone, marking a new model for investment acceleration under the Pax Silica Initiative.

- The United States and the Philippines have announced plans to establish a 4,000-acre industrial center crucial for American and global supply chains.  
- Located in the Luzon Economic Corridor, this site is designated as an economic security zone and represents a new model for AI-native investment acceleration under the Pax Silica initiative.  
- This initiative aims to enhance economic cooperation between the two nations.

ISHRS MSCI Phillpines(EPHE.US)

Nomura Securities Lowers Philippines 2026 GDP Growth Forecast

Philippine growth unexpectedly slows as inflation risks rise

Philippine Central Bank Vows Necessary Action to Hit 3% Inflation Target

Philippines Apr CPI Surges 7.2% YoY, Far Exceeding Expectations; Analysts See Rising Rate Hike Pressure in Jun

Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Jobs Data in Focus -2-