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MORE ECB'S LANE: INTEREST RATE DECISIONS DECISIONS WILL BE BASED OUR ASSESSMENT OF THE INFLATION OUTLOOK AND THE RISKS SURROUNDING IT

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The European Central Bank (ECB) reports that longer working lives and immigration are crucial for sustaining growth in the eurozone amid an aging population. Rising employment has contributed to half of the eurozone's growth since Q3 2023, driven by older Europeans remaining in the workforce. However, the ECB warns that future growth will depend on immigration and technological advancements, as declining fertility rates continue to impact the labor force. The share of migrants in the labor force has increased, but geopolitical uncertainties may affect future migration flows.

- The European Central Bank reports that longer working lives are supporting eurozone growth, yet continued expansion will require immigration due to an aging population.  
- Employment increased by 7.8 million from late 2019 to mid-2025, with a notable rise in older workers, though awareness exists of potential limits to this trend.  
- Migrants, particularly from Ukraine and Latin America, contributed significantly to employment growth, but ongoing reliance on technological advancements and immigration remains uncertain amid changing political landscapes.

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Longer Working Lives and Immigration Keep Eurozone Economy Growing, ECB Says

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Flash quarterly national accounts and industrial production data from the euro area, along with final inflation figures from France, are set to be released on Wednesday. Additionally, Germany's wholesale prices for April will be published by Destatis at 2:00 am ET, with a forecasted monthly increase of 1.8% following a 2.7% rise in March. Reports on GDP, consumer prices, and industrial production from Romania are also expected.

- On Wednesday, the Eurozone will release quarterly national accounts and industrial production data, along with final inflation figures from France.  
- At 2 AM Eastern Time, Germany’s statistics office plans to publish wholesale price data for April, expected to rise by 1.8% monthly after a 2.7% increase in March.  
- Additionally, Romania will release reports on GDP, consumer prices, and industrial production.

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European Economic News Preview: Eurozone GDP Data Due

Eurozone's private sector contracted for the first time in 18 months, influenced by the ongoing Middle East conflict, according to S&P Global's purchasing managers' survey. The composite output index dropped to 48.8 in April from 50.7 in March, slightly above the flash estimate of 48.6.

- The eurozone's private sector has contracted for the first time in nearly a year and a half due to the ongoing war in the Middle East impacting service activity.  
- The composite output index fell from 50.7 last month to 48.8 in April, which is slightly above the preliminary estimate of 48.6.  
- This contraction indicates a significant slowdown in economic activity within the region.

S&P Global

Eurozone Private Sector Shrinks For First Time Since 2024

The Eurozone economy has contracted for the first time in over a year, with the S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI Business Activity Index dropping to 47.6 in April from 50.2 in March. This marks the fastest reduction in output since February 2021. The S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index fell to 48.8, indicating a 17-month low. Chris Williamson from S&P Global Market Intelligence noted that the ongoing Middle East conflict is hindering recovery, suggesting a potential deepening of the downturn despite a modest 0.1% quarterly GDP decline so far.

businessinsider

Euro Area economy contracts for first time in over a year

S&P Global confirmed that the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for April is at 52.2, a 47-month high, up from 51.6 in March. All eight countries surveyed showed expansion. Output growth is the fastest since August, with new orders and export orders increasing significantly. Input cost inflation reached a 46-month high, driven by the Middle East conflict. Supplier delivery delays are severe, and employment has contracted for nearly three years. Firms' output expectations for the next year have dropped to the lowest since November 2024.

- The Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 in April, up from 51.6 in March, marking a 47-month high and aligning with market expectations.  
- All eight surveyed countries reported PMI expansions for the first time since June 2022, driven by increased new orders and a rebound in new export orders amid concerns over rising energy prices and supply disruptions.  
- Input cost inflation reached a 46-month high due to the Middle East conflict, leading to significant rises in output price inflation, while supplier delivery delays worsened since July 2022.

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Eurozone Apr S&P Manufacturing PMI Confirmed at 52.2, Hits Nearly 4-Year High

The eurozone's manufacturing sector experienced significant growth in April, reaching a 47-month high in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 52.2, up from 51.6 in March. This expansion is attributed to manufacturers accelerating their orders in response to concerns over price increases and supply chain disruptions caused by the ongoing war. The data was released by S&P Global.

- Eurozone manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in nearly four years in April, according to final data from S&P Global.  
- The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 52.2 in April, marking a 47-month high, and aligns with initial estimates, increasing from 51.6 in March.  
- Manufacturers placed early orders due to concerns about price increases and supply shocks stemming from conflict.

Eurozone Manufacturing Growth Reaches 47-Month High

The euro remained resilient even as the Middle East war raised concerns about stagflation.

Currencyshares Euro Trust

Euro remains resilient due to ECB rate-hike expectations

The euro is rising as reports indicate that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to implement a rate hike in June. Policymakers are in broad agreement, with some advocating for at least two hikes unless geopolitical tensions and oil prices stabilize. The ECB is expected to initiate a series of hikes, with the first anticipated in June, contingent on external factors such as the resolution of the Iran war and Brent crude prices.

Investinglive

Thomson Reuters

Euro rises as report says the ECB very likely to hike in June

The eurozone's consumer price index rose to 3% in April, driven by a 10.9% surge in energy costs. Core inflation remained at 2.2%. GDP growth was only 0.1% in Q1, below expectations, as the Iran war impacts confidence. The ECB is expected to maintain its rate at 2%, facing a dilemma between combating inflation and risking recession. Economists warn of potential stagflation if the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, with a rate hike seen as a possible policy mistake that could lead to a mini-recession by late 2026 or early 2027.

- In April, the Eurozone's consumer price index rose to 3%, up from 2.6% in March, driven primarily by a 10.9% increase in energy costs.  
- The preliminary GDP data shows a mere 0.1% growth in the first quarter, affected by the Iran conflict and energy supply disruptions, leading to concerns over stagflation.  
- The European Central Bank is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2%, facing a dilemma between combating inflation and risking a recession amid rising energy-driven prices.

GuruFocus

Iran War Pushes Eurozone Inflation to 3%

iShares MSCI Eurozone(EZU.US)

MORE ECB'S LANE: INTEREST RATE DECISIONS DECISIONS WILL BE BASED OUR ASSESSMENT OF THE INFLATION OUTLOOK AND THE RISKS SURROUNDING IT

Longer Working Lives and Immigration Keep Eurozone Economy Growing, ECB Says

European Economic News Preview: Eurozone GDP Data Due

Eurozone Private Sector Shrinks For First Time Since 2024

Euro Area economy contracts for first time in over a year