Currencyshares JPY Trust

The U.S. 20-year Treasury auction ended poorly, with the 20-year Treasury yield breaking 5% and the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5%, advancing to 4.6%. The outcome aligns with Dolphin Research's analysis in the weekly strategy report: once the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.5% and continues to rise, U.S. stocks follow with a correction. Regarding the surge in Treasury yields, Dolphin Research also noted in the report that while Trump claims to be a fiscal hawk, his tax cuts ultimately result in significant deficit policies.This means the deficit issues from the pandemic-era stimulus remain unresolved, and the federal government is adding more debt. The lack of market confidence naturally led to lower auction prices for U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, strange developments are occurring with Japanese bonds: Japan was the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, but now Japan and the U.S. are negotiating, with the U.S. pushing for yen appreciation. From a trading perspective, yen appreciation against the dollar would expose Japanese private institutions holding U.S. Treasuries to exchange rate risks. Japanese insurers, similar to those in Taiwan, previously did not hedge against currency risks during the dual rise of the dollar and dollar-denominated assets. Thus, the optimal move during yen appreciation is to repatriate funds: sell U.S. Treasuries and buy Japanese bonds.However, the latest news indicates the negotiations failed, meaning trades based on expected agreements must now be unwound—buying U.S. Treasuries and selling yen. The result is a yen correction and rising Japanese bond yields.$VG Long-Term(BLV.US), $ProShares Shrt QQQ(PSQ.US), $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US), $Currencyshares JPY Trust(FXY.US), $Invesco Db Dlr Idx Bearish ETF(UDN.US)Additional note: Overseas creditors hold about 30% of U.S. Treasuries, with over 15% held by foreign private institutions rather than official entities. Japanese private institutions hold an even larger share, giving them greater pricing power in Treasury transactions than official entities.<figure class="image"></figure>The chart shows Japan was indeed selling U.S. Treasuries in April, but by the week of May 17, it had shifted to net buying. In other words, without Japanese buyers, Treasury yields might have risen even higher. If Japan and the U.S. eventually reach a trade agreement and the yen appreciates, Japanese buyers may further sell U.S. Treasuries.<figure class="image"></figure> The weakening trend of the dollar is certain in this process. If the U.S. continues large-scale Treasury financing under these conditions, it’s no surprise that investors are betting on the 10-year Treasury yield soaring to 5%.Reference: &#34;Big but Ugly&#34; = &#34;Big Deficit&#34;: Will U.S. Stocks Suffer Again Due to Treasuries? https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/29808412

“大而美”=“大赤字”，美股又要被美债连累了？ - LongPort

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VG Long-Term

ProShares Shrt QQQ

SPDR Gold Shares

Japan's Finance Minister Katayama Says No Comment on FX Market Intervention

Yen falls 0.2% against the dollar to 159

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Yen Exchange Rate Rises Suddenly

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AMPLITECH GROUP INC. USD0.001 S/R 20/11/26 SER B

Wellgistics Health

Huachen AI Parking Management Tech

GeoVax Labs

Sunshine Biopharma

AIM ImmunoTech

Virax Biolabs

NextNRG

GCT Semiconductor

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may slow its bond tapering plans due to recent market turbulence, which has raised concerns among bond investors. While the BOJ is expected to raise interest rates in June, it might indicate a less aggressive approach to reducing its massive debt holdings, currently at 500 trillion yen. Analysts suggest options include pausing tapering or reducing monthly purchases, with a focus on stabilizing market conditions. The BOJ's decision will be influenced by feedback from bond investors and the overall economic environment.

Pro Ultrshrt Yen

Pro Ultr Yen

Bank of Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, Inc.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial

Morgan Stanley

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS EA REP 1/1000 SHS NON CUM PFD O

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PFD SER Q

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 7.125% PFD E

MORGAN STANLEY NON-CUM DEP SH REP 1/1000 PFD SER I

MORGAN STANLEY 4.875 DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NCUM PFD SR L

MORGAN STANLEY 6.5%DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000 NON CUM SER P

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPS 1/1000 PFD SER 'A'

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REPR 1/1000TH INT PFD SER 'F' FX

MORGAN STANLEY DEP SHS REP 1/1000 NON-CUM PFD STK SER K

Analysis:BOJ could temper its taper as bond wobbles rattle markets

07262

Japan's economy grew 2.1% in Q1, surpassing expectations and bolstering the case for Bank of Japan interest rate hikes. Strong private consumption and trade contributed to this growth, despite uncertainties from the Middle East conflict. Economists suggest the BOJ may raise rates as early as June or July, although inflation risks and consumer confidence remain concerns. The yen weakened slightly post-report, and the BOJ has adjusted its growth forecast down to 0.5% for the fiscal year, raising inflation expectations to 2.7%.

- Japan's economy experienced a strong growth rate of 2.1% in the first quarter, exceeding economists' expectations of 1.7%.  
- The positive data on private consumption and trade support the Bank of Japan's potential interest rate increase, despite uncertainties from conflicts in the Middle East.  
- However, concerns over declining consumer confidence and rising inflation may pressure future growth, with the central bank adjusting its forecasts accordingly.

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FL2 CSOP NIKKEI

JAPAN POST INSURANCE Co., Ltd.

Japan’s faster economic growth offers window for BOJ rate hike

HSBC economists report that Japan's GDP growth is recovering, but risks are rising due to slowing global trade and a weaker yen. While the Bank of Japan's policy normalization continues, interest rate hikes may be on the horizon. Despite two consecutive quarters of growth, consumer confidence is declining, and inflation expectations are increasing. Strong exports are offset by potential tourism demand declines due to rising aviation fuel prices and Middle East conflicts.

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HSBC Economists Highlight Risks Amid Japan's Economic Recovery

Japan is prepared to intervene against excessive foreign exchange volatility while avoiding impacts on U.S. Treasury yields. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated that Japan may have spent nearly 10 trillion yen ($63 billion) on yen-buying interventions since April 30. The yen has fluctuated significantly, nearing the 160 mark, which is critical for intervention. Discussions at the G7 meeting included the causes of volatility, such as crude oil prices and speculative behavior, but no intervention was confirmed.

- Japan is ready to act against excessive foreign exchange volatility while ensuring interventions do not increase U.S. Treasury yields, officials stated.  
- Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki indicated that fluctuations in oil prices are affecting exchange rates and government bond yields, with Japan potentially spending nearly 10 trillion yen since April 30 on yen-buying interventions.  
- As the yen approaches the intervention threshold of 160 per dollar, discussions at the G7 meeting included volatility caused by geopolitical developments, while maintaining liquidity in reserves to minimize market impact is a priority.

Japan ready to act on FX volatility, mindful of US bond market impact

USDU

Despite a suspected Japanese FX intervention of around $65 billion, the USD/JPY continues to rise. The Ministry of Finance, not the Bank of Japan, holds the authority for currency interventions, executing trades through the BOJ. Japan's intervention strategy involves coordination between the Ministry and the BOJ, often preceded by verbal warnings to influence market behavior. Recent interventions aimed to support the yen against the dollar have had mixed results, reflecting the complex relationship between fiscal and monetary policies.

Investinglive

Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

Wtree Bbg Usd Bull

USD/JPY on approach to 159! How you left, Ministry of Finance?

The dollar gained 0.04% against the Japanese yen, reaching 158.84 yen per dollar. This marks the sixth consecutive session of gains, totaling a 1.39% increase over this period. The dollar is up 22 of the last 28 sessions and is 1.00% off its 52-week high. Year-to-date, it has risen 1.39% against the yen.

MorningStar

Dollar Gains 0.04% to 158.84 Yen — Data Talk

Japan's Finance Minister Katayama highlights speculative moves in financial markets and the impact of oil price volatility on Forex. He urged G7 nations to address global imbalances and unite against China's export controls. The USDJPY is fluctuating between 158.00 and 160.00, with traders anticipating a breakout above 160.00 or below 158.00.

ISHRS MSCI Japan

Japan's Finance Minister Katayama seeing speculative moves in the financial markets

The dollar weakened against major currencies as oil prices fell following reports of the U.S. waiving sanctions on Iranian crude. The euro rose 0.15% and sterling 0.53%. Market expectations shifted regarding the Fed's monetary policy under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with a greater than 52% chance of a rate hike by January. The Japanese yen also weakened as Japan considers issuing debt to mitigate economic impacts from the Middle East conflict.

Newmont

Occidental Petroleum

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Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X

iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners

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iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod

iShares US Oil Equip & Svcs

SPDR O&G Ex & Prd

VanEck Gold Miners ETF

Thomson Reuters

Dollar retreats on report of US-Iran sanctions deal

As trading begins, markets show caution with mixed equity tones and lower oil prices. The EURUSD has rebounded above key levels after hitting a new low, while the USDJPY remains in a consolidation range. The GBPUSD is recovering from political uncertainty in the U.K., with key resistance levels ahead. The political situation is fluid, with calls for Prime Minister Starmer's resignation and potential leadership challenges looming.

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What is the bias, risks and targets for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD right now

.DJI

The USDJPY is nearing the critical 160 resistance level, influenced by rising US bond yields and inflation expectations. The Dow Jones struggles near record highs amid renewed rate hike expectations, with a nearly 40% chance of a Fed rate hike by year-end. Key market drivers include rising Japanese government bond yields and upcoming NVIDIA earnings, which may impact market volatility. The outlook remains uncertain as both USDJPY and Dow Jones are affected by broader economic conditions and central bank policies.

Forex

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USDJPY, Dow Jones Forecast: Rising Bond Yields Push USDJPY Toward 160, Dow Jones Struggles