Meta Platforms Pref Share METAM 6.5 08/15/29

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GOOGL 3Q26 First Take: Q3 disappointed, with ad growth, Cloud growth, and Services margin all missing buyside expectations. For a name already battling a tougher narrative, even after a sustained pullback (shorts dominated over the past month and the stock fell below $300 after hours, nearing the divergence-entry zone Dolphin Research flagged last quarter), this print is likely to keep a lid on valuation via weaker sentiment.Key Takeaways:1) Search slowdown; AI erosion narrative playing outSearch ad growth was 12% in Q3, a clear QoQ decel. In a heavy AI investment phase, with margins and FCF under pressure, a slowdown in the core franchise is the most damaging outcome for GOOGL and lends credence to the AI erosion narrative.Ahead of the print, third-party data showed share losses in Search and the EU's DMA weighed on travel queries, and the stock’s pullback already signaled positioning and expectations resetting. Actual results still came in worse than feared.Meanwhile, the market had not-low expectations for YouTube given the World Cup and elections, yet growth also slowed meaningfully off a high base. With YouTube skewed to brand ads, this typically reflects macro sensitivity and some share shift to performance ads on social platforms.2) Cloud still surging, but the bar was highCloud (incl. TPU sales) grew 103% in Q3, an acceleration QoQ. However, the sell-side and buyside bars had moved higher than BBG cons. (+91%), with many at ~+105% (sell-side) and ~+110% (buyside).Backlog reached 561 bn in Q3; adding recognized revenue back implies TCV adds of 77.7 bn, roughly in line with Q2 and up ~1 bn, suggesting demand remains solid. Based on channel checks, the miss vs. elevated expectations likely ties to TPU shipment timing, e.g., a one-quarter delay for v8i.For Cloud granularity, watch for the split of how much TPUs contributed (management noted a material contribution) and the impact from v8 delivery delays. The call should offer more color on mix and shipment cadence.3) Margin pressure from elevated AI spendGroup operating margin fell 50bps QoQ in Q3, driven by higher D&A and R&D, pointing to compute infra build-out and foundation model training. By segment, Google Services margin fell 100bps QoQ, while Cloud margin improved QoQ (note: this excludes model training expenses), one of the few upside spots in the print.4) Heavy Capex widens the FCF gapCapex was 51.4 bn in Q3, doubling YoY and still accelerating, reaching 40% of revenue. This drove FCF deeper into negative territory at 9.1 bn.GOOGL continued executing the 85 bn 2026 funding plan, issuing 12.5 bn of equity this quarter with 27.6 bn capacity remaining, and also sold 28.7 bn of unsecured notes in Q3. In theory, cash on hand plus short-term investments and the remaining capacity should largely cover the funding gap over the next two years. $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)