[TOKYO] Oil gained on Wednesday (Oct 7) as traders weighed increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz against a pickup in Iranian attacks against vessels.

Brent rose above US$101 a barrel after a volatile session on Tuesday, while West Texas Intermediate was near US$90.

While shipments through Hormuz have expanded in recent weeks, UK Maritime Trade Operations has reported at least nine attacks in the waterway so far in October. That is already half of the number across Hormuz and the Persian Gulf combined in September.

Teheran was hitting some ships, but not enough to stop the flow of oil and gas, US Vice-President JD Vance told Reuters in an interview.

Meanwhile, Washington remained open to an agreement, and was in talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Vance said.

Crude has rallied sharply in 2026 so far as the US-Iran war disrupted energy flows from the Middle East, fanning inflation.

Leading oil executives including Shell chief executive officer Wael Sawan have warned this week that the world is running out of stopgaps to manage the impact of the conflict, with global stockpiles being drawn down and product prices including diesel still elevated.

“The market is starting to believe that barrels can keep getting through, which is why we’re seeing some of the geopolitical premium come out,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital.

Still, depleted inventories and tight diesel supplies mean “the physical market has a lot less cushion than the headline export numbers suggest”, he said.

Middle East oil flows have recovered to about 80 per cent of pre-conflict volumes, Shell’s Sawan told an industry forum this week, while Vitol Group CEO officer Russell Hardy said about 12 million barrels a day of crude exited the strait over the past seven to 10 days.

Separately, Saudi Arabia has said it is pumping 5.8 million barrels a day through its cross-country pipeline to the Red Sea.

Later on Wednesday, the International Energy Agency is due to hold initial discussions on plans for an emergency release of as much as 100 million barrels of diesel and crude inventories that was pledged by Group of Seven leaders last week, according to people familiar with the matter.

The talks are expected to provide more clarity on how to proceed with the plan.

In the US, crude inventories contracted by 2.1 million barrels last week, according to an estimate from the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute seen by Bloomberg. The snapshot also showed a drop in petrol holdings, while distillates rose. Official data are due later on Wednesday.

US President Donald Trump said he was weighing a suspension of the federal gas tax, as his administration looks for ways to ease costs ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Earlier this week, the US leader relaxed rules on the usage of diesel, allowing truckers to burn fuel normally reserved for tractors.

Traders were also monitoring what may become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026.

A tropical depression formed about 1,015 km south of the Mississippi River’s mouth, the US National Hurricane Center said on Tuesday. It is expected to become Tropical Storm Isaias by Wednesday and reach hurricane strength by Thursday, potentially hitting the US Gulf Coast.

While current forecasts put the storm east of major offshore oil and natural gas production south of Louisiana and Texas, there could be disruptions depending on its path and size.

Chevron said it was evacuating non-essential staff from its Gulf of Mexico platforms, but no adjustments to output had been made. BLOOMBERG