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Iran's ambassador to Moscow stated the Strait of Hormuz will remain open but subject to new transit fees set by Iran and Oman. This proposal, aimed at compensating for services provided, faces strong opposition from the US, which has warned Oman against involvement. The announcement comes amid ongoing US-Israeli military actions against Iran that have severely constrained oil flows through the critical waterway.

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Iranian envoy says Hormuz strait will be open but with transit fees: Report

Oil prices surged, with Brent crude spiking 4.4% to $97.15/barrel, after Israel struck military targets in Iran, escalating Middle East tensions and threatening a fragile ceasefire. The conflict risks closing the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global energy supplies. Despite US President Trump urging de-escalation, hostilities continue, complicating peace talks and raising geopolitical risks for oil markets.

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Oil jumps as Israel retaliates against Iran after missile attack

Crude oil prices fell approximately 3% as an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire boosted hopes for U.S.-Iran diplomacy. While vessel repositioning suggests preparations for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, it remains largely closed. Meanwhile, U.S. crude and petroleum product inventories have hit their lowest levels since 2004, increasing vulnerability to potential supply shocks.

Oil falls 3% as ceasefire lifts hopes for Hormuz deal

Oil futures fell in early Asian trade on a possible technical correction after crude futures rose for the third straight session overnight.

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Oil futures fall on possible technical correction

Chinese crude oil imports have dropped significantly, helping to suppress global prices below $100/bbl despite Middle East tensions. Morgan Stanley and S&P Global report a sharp decline in seaborne arrivals, attributed to strategic destocking and production cuts. While EVs and renewables provide a buffer, analysts warn that sustained low demand is unsustainable. Meanwhile, tentative ceasefire talks and Russian production declines further influenced markets, with Nymex crude falling 3.1% to $93.04/bbl.

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Chinese oil imports at near-decade low helping tamp down global crude prices

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Key global economic data this week includes U.S. jobs reports and ISM surveys, influencing Fed rate expectations; Eurozone inflation and PMI data ahead of an ECB hike; and UK housing market indicators. Investors also monitor peace talks between the U.S. and Iran affecting oil prices.

- Upcoming global economic events will impact FX and bond markets starting June 1, focusing on U.S. jobs data, eurozone inflation, and central bank decisions.  
- In the U.S., strong jobs data could heighten interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve, while eurozone inflation data might prompt a rate hike from the European Central Bank.  
- Asia will monitor the Reserve Bank of India's rate decision and Australia's growth data, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may influence oil prices and market stability.

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Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Jobs, ISM Data in Focus

Initial jobless claims in the US rose to 215,000 last week, exceeding forecasts of 211,000. Despite geopolitical tensions and inflation, layoffs remain low, with claims fluctuating between 190,000 and 230,000 this year. The ongoing Iran war has impacted oil supplies and increased gasoline prices, potentially influencing hiring in the future.

- Initial jobless claims rose to 215,000, surpassing the forecast of 211,000 and showing a slight increase from the previous week.  
- Despite ongoing geopolitical and inflation pressures, layoffs are near historic lows, with claims fluctuating between 190,000 and 230,000 this year.  
- The ongoing conflict in Iran has disrupted oil supplies, pushing up gasoline prices and potentially impacting hiring in the coming months.

US jobless claims rise to 215,000, topping forecasts

Trump claims U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks are ongoing, contradicting reports of a halt. He urges Iran to make a deal after 47 years of conflict. Markets view this as modestly risk-positive, with NASDAQ and S&P up slightly, while crude oil prices dipped to $93.03.

- Trump states that reports of halted U.S.-Iran communication are false and that discussions have been ongoing, including recent days.  
- He emphasizes the urgency for Iran to reach a deal, highlighting that the current situation has lasted for 47 years.  
- Market reactions are slightly positive, as ongoing talks may lower the risk of escalation, with the NASDAQ and S&P indexes showing minor gains and crude oil prices modestly down to $93.03.

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Trump to Iran: It is time to make a deal

Oil prices declined as President Trump attempted to reassure markets that a US-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are imminent. Despite recent strikes raising tensions, Trump stated the memorandum of understanding would be completed within a week. Consequently, WTI crude edged down 1% to $91.16/barrel, while Brent dipped over 1% to $93.82/barrel, reversing previous gains driven by fears of disrupted negotiations.

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Oil prices drop after Trump tries to reassure traders that peace deal is coming

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U.S. Central Command said Tuesday that it had defeated multiple Iranian ballistic missiles following "attempted attacks" by Iran.

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Oil climbs as U.S.-Iran trade strikes while Trump says negotiations with Tehran underway

if this Hormuz framework holds and commercial shipping resumes in June, Brent tests USD 65 by end of the month. shipping risk premiums deflate, airline cost base improves, chemical sector gets breathing room. calling it now 🏹

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Money markets now assuming a Fed funds rate HIKE of +25bp by March 2027, which seems absurd given that the U.S.-Iran war will likely be long over by then and if history repeats, brent crude falls back to the $70/bbl range as it did in 2022 within 9-12 months after Russia invaded Ukraine. Too many investors are blindly extrapolating out the current environment rather than thinking logically through what happens next with midterm elections in November.

Invesco DB Multi Sector Comm TR Oil Fd ETF(DBO.US)

Iranian envoy says Hormuz strait will be open but with transit fees: Report

Oil jumps as Israel retaliates against Iran after missile attack

Oil falls 3% as ceasefire lifts hopes for Hormuz deal

Oil futures fall on possible technical correction

Chinese oil imports at near-decade low helping tamp down global crude prices