ProShares Shrt QQQ

The U.S. 20-year Treasury auction ended poorly, with the 20-year Treasury yield breaking 5% and the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5%, advancing to 4.6%. The outcome aligns with Dolphin Research's analysis in the weekly strategy report: once the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.5% and continues to rise, U.S. stocks follow with a correction. Regarding the surge in Treasury yields, Dolphin Research also noted in the report that while Trump claims to be a fiscal hawk, his tax cuts ultimately result in significant deficit policies.This means the deficit issues from the pandemic-era stimulus remain unresolved, and the federal government is adding more debt. The lack of market confidence naturally led to lower auction prices for U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, strange developments are occurring with Japanese bonds: Japan was the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, but now Japan and the U.S. are negotiating, with the U.S. pushing for yen appreciation. From a trading perspective, yen appreciation against the dollar would expose Japanese private institutions holding U.S. Treasuries to exchange rate risks. Japanese insurers, similar to those in Taiwan, previously did not hedge against currency risks during the dual rise of the dollar and dollar-denominated assets. Thus, the optimal move during yen appreciation is to repatriate funds: sell U.S. Treasuries and buy Japanese bonds.However, the latest news indicates the negotiations failed, meaning trades based on expected agreements must now be unwound—buying U.S. Treasuries and selling yen. The result is a yen correction and rising Japanese bond yields.$VG Long-Term(BLV.US), $ProShares Shrt QQQ(PSQ.US), $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US), $Currencyshares JPY Trust(FXY.US), $Invesco Db Dlr Idx Bearish ETF(UDN.US)Additional note: Overseas creditors hold about 30% of U.S. Treasuries, with over 15% held by foreign private institutions rather than official entities. Japanese private institutions hold an even larger share, giving them greater pricing power in Treasury transactions than official entities.<figure class="image"></figure>The chart shows Japan was indeed selling U.S. Treasuries in April, but by the week of May 17, it had shifted to net buying. In other words, without Japanese buyers, Treasury yields might have risen even higher. If Japan and the U.S. eventually reach a trade agreement and the yen appreciates, Japanese buyers may further sell U.S. Treasuries.<figure class="image"></figure> The weakening trend of the dollar is certain in this process. If the U.S. continues large-scale Treasury financing under these conditions, it’s no surprise that investors are betting on the 10-year Treasury yield soaring to 5%.Reference: &#34;Big but Ugly&#34; = &#34;Big Deficit&#34;: Will U.S. Stocks Suffer Again Due to Treasuries? https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/29808412

“大而美”=“大赤字”，美股又要被美债连累了？ - LongPort

Invesco Db Dlr Idx Bearish ETF

VG Long-Term

Currencyshares JPY Trust

SPDR Gold Shares

Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Erase Losses and Trade Near Flat

US equity index futures generally declined

PSQ to Release Quarterly Earnings on August 14, Analysts Expect EPS of -0.30 USD

PSQ (New York Stock Exchange: PSQH) will release its quarterly financial report data on Wednesday, May 15th

InMed Pharmaceuticals

AMPLITECH GROUP INC. USD0.001 S/R 20/11/26 SER B

Amesite

CN Energy

AMPLITECH GROUP INC. COM USD0.001 (S/R 18/07/2026)

NextNRG

Meiwu Tech

Generation Income Properties

MetaVia

OceanPal

WEAT

The wheat market is mostly higher, with Chicago SRW futures up 5-6 cents and KC HRW futures up 4-5 cents. The US spring wheat crop is 73% planted, ahead of the 5-year average. Winter wheat is 71% headed, but condition ratings dropped to 27% good/excellent. Rains are expected in the Southern Plains, potentially delaying harvest. Current wheat prices include Jul 26 CBOT Wheat at $6.69 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents.

nasdaq

Teucrium Wheat

Nasdaq

Wheat Holding onto Tuesday Gains as Crop Conditions Drop

.IXIC

.NDX

Nasdaq futures face a bearish outlook after failing to maintain a push towards 29,300, indicating a potential bull trap. The current bias is bearish below this level, with key targets at 29,114, 28,966, and 28,942. Market sentiment is influenced by geopolitical developments and rising real yields, affecting tech and growth stocks. Traders should monitor the bond market closely and be prepared for volatility, particularly in the energy sector due to recent diplomatic progress with Iran.

- Nasdaq futures are currently biased bearish as they failed to maintain a push above 29,300, leading to potential selling opportunities.  
- Key levels include 29,250 as a resistance zone and targets of 29,114, 28,966, and 28,942 for bearish traders, while bulls require a sustained reclaim above 29,300 to repair the failed breakout.  
- The broader market is influenced by geopolitical developments and tightening macroeconomic conditions, prompting investors to remain cautious in their trading strategy.

Investinglive

NASDAQ Composite Index

NASDAQ-100

VG Mga Cap 300 Grw

Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF

First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted

ISHRS Russ 1000 Growth

Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF

iShares Core S&P US Growth

Proshares UltraPro QQQ

Invesco QQQ Trust

Schw Us L-Cp Grw

ProShares Ultra QQQ

VG Growth

Nasdaq analysis today shows bull trap risk rises after failed push toward 29300

The U.S. cybersecurity agency CISA faced a significant security lapse when a researcher discovered exposed credentials on GitHub, allowing access to sensitive systems. The credentials, linked to a CISA contractor, included access tokens and cloud keys. Despite the breach, CISA has not confirmed any unauthorized use of the credentials. The incident raises concerns about CISA's cybersecurity practices, especially as the agency has been without a permanent director since January 2025 and has seen workforce reductions.

TechCrunch

US cyber agency CISA exposed reams of passwords and cloud keys to the open web

The WSJ reports little progress in US/Iran negotiations, with Iran maintaining its demands for an end to hostilities and financial relief while resisting US nuclear program restrictions. Trump halted strikes citing positive developments, but further military action remains possible. Iran has retaliated by disrupting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and launching drone strikes, raising risks to global energy markets and regional security.

WSJ: Little progress in US/Iran talks

The IRGC announced it thwarted an attempt to smuggle US-made weapons into Iran, targeting groups in northern Iraq. They confiscated a large shipment intended for 'counter-revolutionary terror groups' and warned of severe consequences for collaborators. This comes amid US efforts to arm Kurdish groups to destabilize Iran, with past claims of weapon smuggling during unrest. Tensions remain high as Kurdish militias face attacks from Iranian forces.

ZeroHedge

IRGC Says It Foiled US Arms Shipments To 'Terror Groups' Near Border With Iraqi Kurdistan

Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the new chairman of the US Federal Reserve. While he asserts commitment to the Fed's independence, concerns arise about potential government influence. Warsh has criticized the Fed's interest rate strategies, reflecting some of President Trump's views, which may impact bond investors.

Businesstimes News

What bond investors should know about a Warsh-led Federal Reserve

Trump has delayed planned strikes on Iran at the request of Gulf allies, who believe negotiations could address U.S. demands regarding nuclear concerns. Ongoing mediation through Pakistan faces significant challenges, particularly on uranium enrichment and stockpile control. The U.S.'s credibility may be jeopardized due to repeated concessions and changing deadlines, potentially undermining Gulf partners' trust in American security assurances.

Trump delays Iran strike after Gulf allies push for talks

01347

688347

SMIC and HUA HONG SEMI saw slight recoveries after opening lower, with SMIC up 0.91% and HUA HONG SEMI up 3.11%. Meanwhile, Trump confirmed that China has not approved the purchase of H200 AI chips, despite earlier reports of US approval for sales to Chinese companies. Trade discussions did not cover chip export controls.

AASTOCKS News

HUA HONG SEMI

Hua Hong

SMIC

NVIDIA

SMIC HK SDR 5to1

NVIDIA Corporation

SMIC, HUA HONG SEMI Tick Up after Opening Lower; Trump: CN Has Not Approved Purchase of H200 Chips

Iran's army has warned it will 'open new fronts' against the US if attacks resume, following President Trump's decision to hold off on military action to pursue a deal. This comes amid a fragile ceasefire and ongoing diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict that began on February 28. Iran criticized a recent US proposal as 'excessive' and reiterated its demands, including the release of frozen assets and lifting sanctions. Meanwhile, Qatar supports the ongoing negotiations mediated by Pakistan.

Yahoo Finance

Iran warns against renewed US attacks as Trump says held off assault

Shares of power producers increased as NextEra Energy announced its acquisition of Dominion Energy for approximately $67 billion, forming the largest U.S. electricity producer. J.D. Joyce, president of Joyce Wealth Management, noted that heightened activity in the sector often leads to more mergers and acquisitions.

MorningStar

Nextera Energy

Dominion Energy

NEXTERA ENERGY CAPITAL HLDGS INC 5.65%JNR SUBORD DEB 01/03/2079 SER N

NEXTERA ENERGY CAPITAL HLDGS INC 6.5% BDS 15/04/86 USD1000

Nextera Energy Partners LP

NEXTERA ENERGY INC 6.926% CORPORATE UNITS 01/09/2025

NEXTERA ENERGY INC CORP UNIT 01/11/2029

NEXTERA ENERGY CAPITAL HLDGS INC 6.5% BDS 01/06/85 USD25

NEXTERA ENERGY INC CORP UNIT 01/06/2027

NEXTERA ENERGY INC CORP UNIT

Utilities Up Amid Deal Activity — Utilities Roundup

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: SEC Proposed Amendments to Simplify Public Company Reporting - $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US)

SPDR S&P 500

Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: NATO TO CONSIDER HORMUZ DEPLOYMENT IF STRAIT NOT OPEN BY JULY - $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US) $United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US)

United States Oil Fund LP

Kimkapwan

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) 2025 Off an April Thrust and ZBT the First Real Test of the 21 EMA was 3 Days AFTER JUNE FOMC.2026 I would expect the same test Regardless of IRAN OIL ect as PPI/CPI is June 10th.Testing the 21 EMA in an UPTREND is OK.Just Depends on the Reason for Bringing it down to that level.Profit TakingMACRO RotationFOMC TighteningECT...

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) @grok analyze the tape from this whipsaw day!

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: Kevin Warsh to be sworn in as Federal Reserve chair on Friday - $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US)

📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: SAUDI SOURCES SAID THAT IRAN OFFERED TO CONDITIONALLY TRANSFER ENRICHED URANIUM TO RUSSIA – CCTV - $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US) $United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US)

Iran–U.S. Negotiation Updates: $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US) $United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US) ➤ Iran’s revised proposal calls for a permanent end to the war, lifting of sanctions, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz➤ Tehran said nuclear discussions would take place in later stages of negotiations➤ U.S. officials have reportedly shown flexibility in talks, including on limits to Iran’s nuclear program➤ Washington has so far agreed to unfreeze 25% of Iran’s funds on a phased basis➤ Tehran is demanding the release of all frozen funds

📈 Share your trades, earn SGD $2 per post! 
How to join: post your P/L + 20-word insight in English
Learn, connect, and cash in! 🚀

📈 Share your trades, earn SGD $2 per post! How to join: post your P/L + 20-word insight in English Learn, connect, and cash in! 🚀

Trade Showcase

$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)After more than a month of straight upside for QQQ, this is the first week that really felt like buyers and sellers finally meeting each other. The weekly doji says a lot — momentum is still there, but it&#39;s no longer one-sided.Usually after a move this extended, the market either:• consolidates sideways and resets• or gets a sharper pullback to shake positioning outWhat matters is breadth and macro. If yields/oil stay calm, it&#39;s likely consolidation instead of collapse. Feels more like a pause after a squeeze, not an immediate bear reversal.@Bridge Buzz SG

2025 May Analog vs May 2026 🤔Know Your Auction Dates!!Link Below!Weak Auctions = NO Bueno This week, we saw a C+ auction, not good. $TNX and long-duration yields are no longer moving ONLY on inflation data or geopolitics.The market is now entering a MASSIVE Treasury supply window through May, June, and July.That means:MORE 10Y and 30Y debt issuanceMORE duration supplyMORE pressure on auctions to clear successfully!And if demand is weak like this week!Yields MUST rise until buyers step in.The market’s message right now:&gt; “If inflation stays sticky, oil remains elevated, and deficits keep expanding… we want MORE compensation to lock money up for 10–30 years.”Key Treasury Supply Clusters Ahead:🗓 MAY • May 20 → 20Y Bond• May 27 → 2Y FRN + 5Y Note• May 28 → 7Y Note🗓 JUNE • June 9 → 3Y Note• June 10 → 10Y Note• June 11 → 30Y Bond• June 16 → 20Y Bond• June 18 → 5Y TIPS + FRN• June 24–25 → 2Y / 5Y / 7Y Cluster🗓 JULY • Continued bill issuance + quarterly refunding pressure buildingWhy this matters:Weak auctions → Higher yields required → Financial conditions tighten → Mortgage rates rise → Equities face pressure → Treasury must offer EVEN MORE yieldThat’s the current Doom Loop.And right now the market is watching:Bid-to-cover ratiosForeign buyer demandAuction tailsDealer take-downsOil pricesCPI/PPI inflation dataThe 10Y is the benchmark growth/inflation signal.The 30Y is the long-term confidence signal.If auction demand stabilizes? Yields can reverse fast.But if inflation + oil + weak demand continue?The market may FORCE rates even higher before buyers finally step in.For what it's worth, last year we had this spike May 13th, May 20th to 26th, then calm until mid to late July. #SPX #SPY #QQQ #Bonds #Treasury #Macro #Inflation #Oil #Rates #FOMC @Norseman1@McClellanOsc@market_sleuth@Micro2Macr0@Basssem666@mark_ungewitter@Bluekurtic@itsmichaelluu@ISABELNET_SA@SuperLuckeee