The tone for the AI main theme is set tonight! Google and Tesla earnings reports appear together, with Intel closing out on Thursday.18 hours ago
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GOOGL 2Q26 First Take: As a top-tier global AI buyer, Alphabet’s earnings are a focal point for the entire tech supply chain. Key metrics include Capex, Cloud growth, and cash flow trends:(1) Capex hit $44.9bn, doubling YoY. Management raised FY26 Capex guidance from $180-190bn to $195-205bn (+ $10bn net) and expects a significant increase in 2027. This aligns with buy-side expectations of a $5-10bn hike due to rising storage costs.(2) Google Cloud grew 82%, slightly beating the buy-side’s 75-80% estimate. Note that this includes TPU hardware sales, though revenue recognition details (Gross vs. Net of Broadcom’s share) remain undisclosed. Backlog reached $514bn, meeting the $500bn investor threshold.(3) Core Ads slightly beat estimates. Search remained robust as expected, while YouTube Ads showed a modest recovery.(4) Group OP slightly missed. Free Cash Flow (FCF) turned negative (-$5.8bn) amid aggressive spending. EPS surged 294%, primarily driven by valuation gains from investments in SpaceX and Anthropic, making it a distorted metric for core fundamentals.Overall, the results favor the supply chain 'bull case.' Management remains highly aggressive on AI investment due to strong demand. This offsets the market’s high Capex expectations, offering supply chain investors a temporary sigh of relief.Conversely, aggressive spending pressures short-term fundamentals, especially during this 'weak conviction' phase where Gemini iterations face hurdles and growth bases rise. Despite impressive Cloud revenue and backlog growth, the unexpected negative FCF and Capex guidance suggest cash flow pressure will persist.Of the $80bn+ financing announced earlier this year, $49.6bn has been executed, with the remaining $40bn in follow-on offerings starting in Q3. Assuming FY27 OCF of $250bn, plus current cash and short-term investments of $2400bn and the $40bn from future offerings, a total liquidity of $540bn could support the aggressive buy-side Capex forecast of $350bn for 2027.The remaining ~$200bn can cover ad-hoc investments and maturing long-term debt. However, managing this cash exposure remains challenging. We cannot rule out the possibility of additional financing beyond current plans. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)5 hours agoAVGO+2.67%SPCX-6.70%
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