ISHRS MSCI Thailand Capped

Thai Exchange Reports Stable Inflow of International Funds

Thai Central Bank Maintains Low Interest Rates to Support Economy

Thai Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates Unexpectedly to Support Economy

Thai Central Bank to Boost Economic Growth with Fiscal and Monetary Policies

Thailand's Q4 2025 GDP Growth Exceeds Expectations

Thailand's Inflation Rate Remains Negative for 10th Consecutive Month

Thai Central Bank Intervenes to Mitigate Baht Volatility

Thai Central Bank Governor Sees Growth of 1.5% to 1.7% This Year

Thailand Eases Limits on Repatriating Foreign Income, Raises Remittance Caps

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Southeast Asia's power demand is expected to surge by over 100 TWh in four years, necessitating $200B in investments. Analysts warn of an $18B annual shortfall in grid investments by 2035, which could lead to delays and cancellations of renewable projects. In the past five years, up to 60% of renewable projects in Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia have been scrapped due to regulatory and system challenges.

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Thailand's Q1 GDP data is expected to show slowed growth, with private consumption moderating and tourism revenue contracting. In Malaysia, inflation may rise to 1.9% due to higher fuel prices, while exports remain strong. Indonesia's central bank is likely to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points amid forex pressures, although a larger hike is deemed unlikely. A pause may occur if significant foreign currency bonds are issued.

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Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: Fed Minutes in Focus as -2-

Thailand's central bank is not rushing to raise interest rates, citing an expected easing of supply-side inflation next year. The current policy rate remains at 1.00% to support economic recovery amid rising energy prices. The bank's growth forecast has been revised to 2.1% for this year, with inflation projected at 3.1%. The government plans to borrow an additional 200 billion baht to boost consumption. The next rate review is scheduled for June 24.

- The Bank of Thailand has stated there is no urgency to raise interest rates, forecasting that supply-side inflation will ease by next year.  
- The central bank maintains its policy rate at 1.00%, aiming to support economic recovery amid rising energy prices and aims to address broader impacts from ongoing conflicts that have weakened purchasing power.  
- Economic growth is predicted at 2.1% for this year, with overall inflation expected at 3.1%, while the government considers additional borrowing to enhance economic stimulus measures.

Thailand's central bank signals no rush to hike rates as inflation outlook improves

In 1997, Thailand faced a financial crisis as the baht collapsed due to debt, capital flight, and speculative trading. Hedge funds, notably George Soros’s Quantum Fund, profited by betting against the currency. Economists argue that the crisis stemmed from structural weaknesses rather than the actions of any single entity.

The Thai baht collapse and the hedge fund that bet against it

The Thai government has revised its 2026 economic growth forecast down to 1.6% from 2%, citing the impact of the Middle East conflict on growth and inflation. The crude oil price forecast has been raised significantly, contributing to an expected average inflation rate of 3%, at the upper end of the central bank's target. The Thai baht has declined by 0.7% against the USD, with a cumulative drop of over 4% since the Iran war began. Additionally, foreign tourist arrivals are projected to be lower than previously expected due to decreased visitors from the Middle East and Europe.

- The Thai government expects the Middle East conflict to pressure economic growth and increase inflation, prompting a call for enhanced fiscal support for consumers and businesses.  
- The Ministry of Finance has revised the 2026 economic growth forecast down to 1.6% and significantly raised the crude oil price estimate to $91 per barrel.  
- Additionally, the current account surplus is projected to shrink to $6 billion due to increased import growth and a decline in expected foreign tourist arrivals.

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Thailand Cuts 2026 Econ Growth Forecast to 1.6%, Inflation May Reach Upper End of Target Range

Thailand's Finance Ministry has revised its economic growth forecast for 2023 down to 1.6% from 2% due to the impact of the Middle East conflict, which is expected to increase inflation and energy costs. Headline inflation is projected to average 3%, at the upper end of the central bank's target. The baht has weakened significantly, and the government is considering cash handouts to support consumption. Despite challenges, exports are expected to grow by 6.2%, while tourism faces declines in visitor numbers. The central bank is monitoring inflation closely ahead of its interest rate decision.

- Thailand's Finance Ministry has lowered its economic growth forecast for this year from 2% to 1.6% due to rising oil prices, which are now expected to reach $91 per barrel.  
- Inflation is projected to average 3%, reaching the upper limit of the central bank's target, while the Thai baht has depreciated by over 4% against the dollar since the onset of the Iran conflict.  
- The government plans to implement cash support measures to stimulate consumption, facing challenges from rising fuel costs and a competitive tourism sector.

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Thailand sees weaker growth, higher inflation on Middle East crisis

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The Thai baht has significantly weakened since the onset of the Iran War, with analysts predicting further declines due to rising oil prices and the country's large energy import deficit. The currency has dropped over 4% against the US dollar since February 28 and is expected to weaken to 33.90 per dollar this quarter. Factors such as a narrow current account and high energy costs make the baht particularly vulnerable. Economic growth may slow to 1.3% in 2026 if the conflict continues, impacting the currency negatively in the medium term.

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Thai baht losses set to deepen on oil shock, analysts say

The Thai baht has significantly weakened since the onset of the Iran War, with strategists predicting further declines due to rising oil prices and the country's large energy import deficit. The currency has dropped over 4% since late February and is expected to weaken to 33.90 per US dollar this quarter. Analysts caution that higher oil prices and a narrower current account will continue to pressure the baht, with forecasts suggesting it could end the year at 33 per dollar. Economic growth may slow to 1.3% this year as the conflict persists, impacting the current account negatively.

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Thai baht war losses set to deepen on oil shock, strategists say

Thailand's merchandise exports grew for the 21st consecutive month in March 2026, reaching a record high of $35.16 billion, up 18.7% year-on-year. This growth was driven by technology products and a recovery in global manufacturing. However, challenges remain, including disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affecting Middle Eastern markets. Imports also surged by 35.7% to $38.50 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $3.34 billion. The Ministry of Commerce cautioned that export prospects are uncertain due to global volatility and rising costs.

- Thailand's exports grew significantly in March, accelerating from a 9.9% increase in February, driven by technology products and easing U.S. tariffs.  
- Despite the strong export performance, a 35.7% increase in imports resulted in a trade deficit of $3.34 billion, with total exports reaching $96.17 billion in Q1 2026 and imports at $105.65 billion.  
- The Ministry of Commerce cautioned that ongoing global volatility and tensions in the Middle East could impact export prospects due to rising logistics and production costs.

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Thailand’s exports extend 21-month growth streak

Thailand is adjusting its state spending to mitigate the effects of an oil shock while maintaining its fiscal deficit target of 788 billion baht for 2027. The government plans to achieve this through spending cuts and reallocations from its 3.79 trillion baht budget, aiming to free up 95 to 125 billion baht. The measures are in response to rising energy costs and economic pressures due to the Middle East conflict. The government will prioritize projects that reduce long-term fiscal burdens, such as installing solar panels on government buildings. Moody's has upgraded Thailand's outlook to stable.

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Oil shock pushes Thailand to rework spending to contain deficit

ISHRS MSCI Thailand Capped(THD.US)