Invesco Db Dlr Idx Bearish ETF

The U.S. 20-year Treasury auction ended poorly, with the 20-year Treasury yield breaking 5% and the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5%, advancing to 4.6%. The outcome aligns with Dolphin Research's analysis in the weekly strategy report: once the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.5% and continues to rise, U.S. stocks follow with a correction. Regarding the surge in Treasury yields, Dolphin Research also noted in the report that while Trump claims to be a fiscal hawk, his tax cuts ultimately result in significant deficit policies.This means the deficit issues from the pandemic-era stimulus remain unresolved, and the federal government is adding more debt. The lack of market confidence naturally led to lower auction prices for U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, strange developments are occurring with Japanese bonds: Japan was the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, but now Japan and the U.S. are negotiating, with the U.S. pushing for yen appreciation. From a trading perspective, yen appreciation against the dollar would expose Japanese private institutions holding U.S. Treasuries to exchange rate risks. Japanese insurers, similar to those in Taiwan, previously did not hedge against currency risks during the dual rise of the dollar and dollar-denominated assets. Thus, the optimal move during yen appreciation is to repatriate funds: sell U.S. Treasuries and buy Japanese bonds.However, the latest news indicates the negotiations failed, meaning trades based on expected agreements must now be unwound—buying U.S. Treasuries and selling yen. The result is a yen correction and rising Japanese bond yields.$VG Long-Term(BLV.US), $ProShares Shrt QQQ(PSQ.US), $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US), $Currencyshares JPY Trust(FXY.US), $Invesco Db Dlr Idx Bearish ETF(UDN.US)Additional note: Overseas creditors hold about 30% of U.S. Treasuries, with over 15% held by foreign private institutions rather than official entities. Japanese private institutions hold an even larger share, giving them greater pricing power in Treasury transactions than official entities.<figure class="image"></figure>The chart shows Japan was indeed selling U.S. Treasuries in April, but by the week of May 17, it had shifted to net buying. In other words, without Japanese buyers, Treasury yields might have risen even higher. If Japan and the U.S. eventually reach a trade agreement and the yen appreciates, Japanese buyers may further sell U.S. Treasuries.<figure class="image"></figure> The weakening trend of the dollar is certain in this process. If the U.S. continues large-scale Treasury financing under these conditions, it’s no surprise that investors are betting on the 10-year Treasury yield soaring to 5%.Reference: &#34;Big but Ugly&#34; = &#34;Big Deficit&#34;: Will U.S. Stocks Suffer Again Due to Treasuries? https://longportapp.cn/zh-CN/topics/29808412

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The U.S. dollar weakened by 0.34% to $98.95 as investors reacted to geopolitical tensions in Iran and changing Federal Reserve policy expectations. The dollar index rose 1.19% over the past week, driven by rising U.S. Treasury yields and inflation concerns. Major currencies like the euro and pound showed mixed movements, with the pound rebounding 0.81% amid UK political uncertainty. Overall, the dollar remains up 0.79% year-to-date despite recent declines.

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Spot USD/CNY added 73 bps to close at 6.7979 today (18th). As of 4:47 pm, USD/CNY in the night session hiked 132 bps. USD/CNH lifted 133 bps to 6.7982, 3 bps below USD/CNY.

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Spot USD/CNY Adds 73 bps to Close at 6.7979

US retail sales rose 0.5% in April to $757.1 billion, indicating resilience in consumer spending despite inflation pressures. This follows a revised 1.6% increase in March. Yearly retail sales increased by 4.9%. The US dollar remained firm post-release, reflecting investor confidence. However, inflation concerns are rising, with producer prices up 1.4% in April, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, and consumer inflation at 3.8%, exceeding expectations. These trends may complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to manage inflation and influence interest rate decisions.

- U.S. retail sales rose by 0.5% in April, indicating consumer spending resilience despite increasing inflationary pressures.  
- The U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail sales reached $757.1 billion, with a 4.9% year-over-year increase and a revised 1.6% growth in March.  
- Concurrently, consumer price inflation rose to 3.8%, surpassing economists' expectations, driven by higher energy and essential goods costs, leading to heightened concerns about persistent inflation.

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US retail sales increase 0.5% despite inflation pressures

On May 19, the U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.09% to 99.192. The euro strengthened to 1.1637 dollars, while the British pound rose to 1.3411 dollars. The dollar increased against the yen to 159.01, but weakened against the Swiss franc at 0.7856. The Canadian dollar slightly rose to 1.3749, and the dollar fell against the Swedish krona to 9.4093.

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U.S. Dollar Index Declines Amid Currency Exchange Rate Fluctuations

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The US dollar steadied near recent highs as traders monitored geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Following President Trump's pause on military action against Iran, the dollar gained support as investors sought safe-haven assets. The dollar index remained stable at 99.026, while US Treasury yields eased. Investors are weighing a potential interest rate hike amid inflation concerns, with a 36.2% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the Fed's December meeting.

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US dollar holds near highs as traders watch Fed and Middle East risk

The U.S. dollar rose against the Vietnamese dong, with Vietcombank selling it at VND26,389, and the black market rate at VND26,530. The dollar found global support after President Trump paused a planned attack on Iran, stabilizing bond markets. The U.S. dollar index remained steady at 99.026, recovering from a previous decline as fears of war escalation eased.

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The odds of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates have surged following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which showed a 3.8% inflation rate, the highest since 2023. The likelihood of maintaining rates is now at 63%, while the chances of a rate hike have increased significantly, with one hike now at 29.7% and two hikes at 4.3%. Conversely, the probability of a rate cut has decreased to 2.9%.

- The CME FedWatch tool indicates that by year-end, the Federal Reserve is likely to either maintain interest rates or raise them, especially after the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed increased inflation.  
- The CPI rose by 3.8% over the past twelve months, marking the fastest rate since 2023 and exceeding expectations, driven largely by a 40% increase in energy prices.  
- While the probability of maintaining interest rates is now 63%, higher than expected rate hikes have risen, with a single hike probability increasing from 21.5% to 29.7%.

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The dollar gained 0.16% against the Japanese yen, reaching 159.09 yen per dollar. This marks the seventh consecutive session of gains, totaling a 1.54% increase over this period. The dollar is up 11.59% from its 52-week low and 10.09% year-over-year. It is currently 0.84% off its 52-week high. Month-to-date, the dollar has risen 1.58%. This is the longest winning streak since October 2025.

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The euro falls to a five-week low against the dollar as short-term interest rate differentials shift against the exchange rate, ING said.

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