CAN YOU BELIEVE IT IS SEPTEMBER?
Historically, it is the worst month of the year.September is usually down 0.6% on average and only higher around 45% of the time. It has also been the worst month over the past 10 years and the 3rd worst month in a midterm year.Stocks are red in the premarket has two Saudi oil tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz last night, each vessel carrying 2M barrels of oil.Crude is up 3% to $87.5 and the 10-yr yield just hit its highest level since Jan 2025. September rate hike probabilities are now 65%, up from 30% last week. At the same time, last year September was very strong because the S&P took a big drawdown in April with liberation day. This year, the S&P already had a 10% correction in March and the deleveraging event in July took most high-beta names down 40-50%.The question now is if those two drawdowns happening were enough to avoid a normal September hit.Source: amit
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