amit

AUGUST U.S. NONFARM PAYROLLS:

- The US economy added 162K jobs in August 2026, beating expectations by 56K jobs

- July’s payrolls were upwardly revised by 23K

- Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.1% expected

- Employment increased in food services and drinking places and in local government education

10-year spiked to 4.8% again and markets went slightly red on the print.

Labor market continues to be hot and one of the reasons that makes it harder for the Fed to justify cutting rates.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US) launched steering-wheel-free Cybercab rides in Austin, marking the first public deployment of its purpose-built autonomous vehicle. Customers can now book Cybercab rides through Tesla’s Robotaxi app, with Tesla having registered 45 Cybercabs in Texas, bringing its state robotaxi fleet to 420 vehicles. The two-seat Cybercab has no steering wheel, pedals, or mirrors, relying on cameras and neural networks instead of lidar or radar, while also featuring in-car entertainment and integrated Starlink V5. Cybercab is not yet available for sale, but Tesla has opened a form for potential fleet buyers. Federal safety rules still prevent commercial sales, and Tesla has not yet filed for an NHTSA exemption.

2. Fed Governor Chris Waller said he would support keeping rates at 3.50%–3.75% this month if upcoming inflation data continues to show progress toward the Fed’s 2% target. Waller said recent data suggest the economy is “finally seeing some signs of disinflation,” and that if the improvement continues in data due over the next 2 weeks, he would be inclined to hold rates steady. However, he warned that if August inflation data show the improvement was fleeting, “it may be appropriate to raise the policy rate.” He also noted that uncertainty remains around military conflicts, trade policy, and AI’s impact on prices and economic activity.

3. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) has agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $12.93B, giving it one of the largest open AI developer platforms in the world. Hugging Face says it now serves more than 18M developers, researchers, and creators, with over 3M models, 500K datasets, 1M applications, and 200K+ companies on the platform. Nvidia says Hugging Face will remain open to models and hardware across the ecosystem, with no requirement for developers to use Nvidia compute and continued support for multi-cloud and multi-accelerator deployment. Nvidia also plans to use its infrastructure and engineering resources to expand Hugging Face’s model evaluation, inference, deployment, safety, and platform reliability.

4. Morgan Stanley says Broadcom $Broadcom(AVGO.US) delivered a quarter and outlook that were slightly better than prior guidance, while its 2027 AI revenue commentary of $115B came in slightly below the firm’s $120B estimate but still in line with management’s prior view for “well above $100B.” The bigger takeaway is that management said AI revenue should “double again” in 2028, with customer breadth improving and two AI labs expected to become Broadcom’s two largest customers by CY28. Morgan Stanley says it continues to haircut CY28 because semiconductor visibility rarely extends that far, but its numbers still move up considerably. The firm sees some near-term uncertainty from elevated CY27 AI expectations, but believes market-share expectations remain too low, with industry contacts supporting the view that Broadcom can drive 80%+ share of its serviceable markets over time. Morgan Stanley says valuation remains compelling, growth remains very robust, and $Broadcom(AVGO.US), along with $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), continues to look like one of the most attractively valued AI names.

5. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) CEO Mark Zuckerberg reportedly told President Trump in a private August call that he opposed a proposal to create a national AI regulator, according to Business Insider. The White House is considering a FINRA-style body that could review and test advanced AI models for risks before broader deployment, an idea originally proposed by Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis. Zuckerberg has argued that delaying model releases, even by a month, could hurt U.S. leadership against China. The White House is reportedly weighing two paths: a formal FINRA-style AI regulator, or a more voluntary industry-led standards group similar to the Motion Picture Association, an approach backed by David Sacks. The proposal remains under consideration.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.5M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.7M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 1.4M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.3M contracts, $Broadcom(AVGO.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Strategy(MSTR.US) with 925K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 806K contracts, $PG & E(PCG.US) with 720K contracts, $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 717K contracts, and $Robinhood(HOOD.US) with 682K contracts.

7. OpenAI has started rolling out GPT-6 Astra, its new flagship model, calling it a “generational leap” in AI capability. President Greg Brockman went further, saying people may eventually look back at “about this time and about this model” as when AGI arrived, ending the briefing with: “Welcome to the AGI era.” Astra was trained on more than 100,000 GPUs at OpenAI’s Stargate site in Texas and is designed to work directly inside software, including creating spreadsheets and presentations, building 3D environments, designing circuit boards, handling financial modeling, and drafting tax forms. OpenAI says Astra leads across software engineering, science, reasoning, computer use, and cybersecurity, but the model also reached OpenAI’s “Critical” cybersecurity threshold, meaning its strongest cyber capabilities will initially be restricted to trusted organizations through Daybreak Access.

8. Lululemon $Lululemon(LULU.US) reported Q2’26 revenue of $2.4B, below estimates of $2.46B and down 4% YoY, while comparable sales fell 9%. EPS came in at $2.92, including a $0.86 tariff-refund benefit, with gross margin up 200 bps YoY to 60.5%. The company cut FY26 guidance to $10.35B–$10.5B in revenue versus $11.04B expected and EPS of $9.48–$9.73 versus $10.88 expected. Q3 guidance was also weak, with revenue expected at $2.29B–$2.32B versus $2.53B expected and EPS of $0.93–$0.98 versus $2.40 expected. Management said it is taking a “prudent approach” with the revised full-year outlook, while Michael Burry said: “Today, lululemon (LULU) is the trickster in my portfolio. This time the trickster is my largest position, and it does seem determined to take me where mermaids fear to tread.”

9. Robinhood $Robinhood(HOOD.US) had its best day in over a year, rising 15% after a Morgan Stanley upgrade and renewed attention around Robinhood Chain. Part of the move may have come after Ansem, one of crypto’s most influential voices, posted his Robinhood thesis to 1.3M followers, highlighting the company’s growing onchain opportunity. Since launching July 1, Robinhood Chain has generated $34.6B in cumulative DEX volume, 576M transactions, and 12.3M addresses, with daily DEX volume recently hitting a record $1.5B and users paying $3.75M in fees on September 1. More than 190 tokenized stocks are now live, producing over $3B in cumulative DEX volume, while RWA daily volume reached a record $390M, including $217M from memecoin/tokenized-stock pairs. Robinhood’s onchain ecosystem has also grown to more than $750M in TVL while generating billions in perpetual-futures volume. The market appears to be waking up to the idea that Robinhood Chain may not be fully priced in, with the potential to become a new 9-figure revenue stream — and possibly much larger if growth continues.

10. Mira Murati’s AI startup Thinking Machines is reportedly in talks to raise more than $1B at a roughly $40B valuation, according to The Information. Accel is in talks to lead the round, while Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is also considering participating. The raise follows the July launch of Thinking Machines’ first model, Inkling, and the company is already generating hundreds of millions in annualized revenue despite being less than 2 years old. The proposed valuation is below the $50B+ level the company sought late last year, when it discussed raising $4B–$5B.

11. U.S. diesel refining margins have surged to a record $106/barrel, topping $100 for the first time and surpassing the roughly $85/barrel peak seen during the 2022 energy crisis. The diesel crack spread has more than tripled since February, signaling extremely tight diesel supplies and much stronger potential profits for refiners. The spike reflects a severe shortage of global diesel supply amid the Iran War, with U.S. diesel inventories down to 103.4M barrels, the lowest on record for this time of year. Retail diesel prices have also climbed to $5.78/gallon, just 4 cents below the all-time high set in June 2022.

12. The Bank of Japan is reportedly leaning toward a 25 bps rate hike at its September 18 meeting, which would take rates from 1.00% to 1.25%, according to Bloomberg. Officials reportedly see inflation risks skewed to the upside, with Japan’s key inflation gauge expected to move back toward 3% as yen weakness and higher oil prices add pressure. A 50 bps hike is seen as unlikely for now, but the BOJ is leaving the door open to faster tightening later if inflation stays firm. A September move would come just 3 months after the June hike, marking the shortest gap between hikes under Governor Ueda.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

to be honest, the S&P up 1% on a day where oil makes a 3 month high is a little weird

but maybe the market has moved on from caring about rising bond yields and oil?

feels crazy to think that’s the case but this type of move today in the face of bad macro is either a trap or the market saying it doesn’t care about rate hikes, it cares about earnings

and earnings growth is accelerating

Source: amit

so have yall seen $Robinhood(HOOD.US) today orrrrr 😆

part of the reason for this move is because the MJ of crypto @blknoiz06 posted to his 1.3M followers yesterday around his HOOD thesis

ansem has been a massive Robinhood bull from the early days but he is also heavily involved in the rising on-chain activity and for those that haven’t heard…

the numbers are quite incredible:

- Robinhood Chain has generated $34.6B in cumulative DEX volume, 576M transactions, and 12.3M addresses since launching July 1.

- Daily DEX volume recently hit a record $1.5B, with users paying $3.75M in fees on September 1.

- More than 190 tokenized stocks are now live, generating over $3B in cumulative DEX volume.

- RWA activity has surged, with daily volume reaching a record $390M, including $217M from memecoin/tokenized-stock pairs.

- Robinhood’s onchain ecosystem has grown to more than $750M in TVL while also generating billions of dollars in perpetual-futures volume.

The street is realizing they have not priced in Robinhood Chain. Ansem posted his thesis on Robinhood Chain and how large it can become yesterday to millions of people who want exposure to companies innovating in the crypto space.

this is a part of their business that can produce $1B of revenue if it maintains this growth and even if it doesn’t, we are talking about a new 9-figure revenue stream for the company

& you’ve got $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) at $81K

higher

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Broadcom $Broadcom(AVGO.US) said it has a “high degree of confidence” it will ship $350B of AI semiconductors over the next 2 years, even if all 30 GW of demand is not deployed because of land, power, and data center constraints. The company laid out a massive AI growth path, targeting AI semiconductor revenue of roughly $58B in FY26, $115B in FY27, and $230B in FY28 — a 4x increase in just 2 years. Broadcom said every 1 GW deployed by OpenAI or Anthropic could support about $30B in annual AI revenue, while AI networking revenue is expected to grow just as fast as its XPU business. In Q3’26, Broadcom reported revenue of $29.6B, beating estimates of $29.36B and up 86% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $3.32 versus $3.24 expected. AI semiconductor revenue surged 221% YoY to $16.7B, and Broadcom expects that to accelerate to $21.7B in Q4, up 236% YoY, while also targeting $30+ EPS in FY28.

2. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) rolled out Muse Spark 1.3, saying the latest model delivers its biggest coding and agentic performance jump yet. Meta says Muse Spark 1.3 matches GPT-5.6 Sol on Terminal-Bench 2.1 with a score of 88.8 and reaches 75.4 on DeepSWE. The model is available now through Muse Code and the API. Zuckerberg also teased Watermelon and open weights coming next, signaling Meta is continuing to push aggressively on frontier coding agents and open AI distribution.

3. Nvidia-backed neocloud Nscale is telling prospective IPO investors it has roughly $103B in contracted revenue, up from $51B before its $45B compute deal with Anthropic, according to The Information. The contracts average 5.7 years, implying about $18B of future contracted revenue per year, though the figure is not current revenue or formal guidance and was described by one source as “illustrative.” Actual revenue is still much smaller but scaling quickly, rising from about $37M in Q1 2026 to more than $100M in Q2, excluding the Anthropic deal, as Nscale prepares for an IPO that could come as soon as this month.

4. HPE $Hewlett Packard Enterprise(HPE.US) expanded its Oracle $Oracle(ORCL.US) AI data center deal, with HPE set to deploy Juniper networking gear across Oracle AI data centers globally under a potential multi-year agreement. The deal covers routing, switching, networking support, and financing for OCI’s AI clusters, regional data centers, and edge networks, while HPE also issued Oracle warrants to purchase HPE shares. Separately, HPE reported Q3’26 revenue of $12.2B, beating estimates of $11.91B and up 34% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $1.11 versus $0.93 expected. Networking revenue surged 74.9% YoY to $2.9B, while Cloud & AI revenue rose 25.4% YoY to $9.0B. HPE guided Q4 revenue to $13.9B–$14.8B, above the $12.96B estimate, raised FY26 guidance, and said AI is becoming a multi-year growth driver as record backlog supports the outlook.

5. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated Tempus $Tempus AI(TEM.US) at Overweight with an $80 price target, arguing the company is being mispriced as a traditional life sciences data vendor rather than an AI-powered platform business. The firm says Tempus’ Data & Applications segment has a stronger growth and margin profile than the market is giving it credit for, with 26% growth and 76% gross margins. Cantor believes the segment should be compared more closely to platform peers like $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US), $Snowflake(SNOW.US), $Datadog(DDOG.US), and $Reddit(RDDT.US) rather than slower-growing data-vendor peers, creating a favorable upside risk/reward.

6. Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) launched Gemini 3.8 Flash Cyber, a new cybersecurity-focused AI model that scored 86.2% on CyberGym and 47.2% on CWE-Bench. Google says the model has a 70%+ success rate identifying vulnerabilities across 20 programming languages and produced 2.6x more correct patches than larger models on real Chrome security bugs. Initial access is limited to government agencies and cybersecurity partners through Google’s Fairwind program.

7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 5.7M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.8M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.7M contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 959K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 732K contracts, $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 675K contracts, $Dell Tech(DELL.US) with 633K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 557K contracts, and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 536K contracts.

8. JPMorgan says a 5% 10-year Treasury yield could be the level that starts to pressure stocks, with Grace Peters noting that “5% psychologically has an impact” and could trigger a knee-jerk equity selloff. She sees a potential 5%-8% correction into the midterms, but views that as a healthy pullback rather than a structural break. JPMorgan remains constructive on stocks longer term, with its thesis centered on a capex-driven earnings supercycle, while the key medium-term test for AI will be whether the spending translates into real returns.

9. Berenberg initiated Rocket Lab $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) at Buy with an $83 price target, implying about 29%-35% upside, calling it the only end-to-end public pure-play in space across launch, satellites, components, and spectrum. The firm says Rocket Lab has an effective monopoly in dedicated small-lift launch, is entering medium-lift with Neutron, and is benefiting from rapid growth in satellite manufacturing and components as space budgets hit records. Berenberg also said the Iridium acquisition adds scarce global spectrum and recurring applications revenue, while Rocket Lab’s vertical integration gives it long-term optionality not fully reflected in the stock’s valuation. While acknowledging execution risk and a high multiple, the firm called Rocket Lab one of the most compelling long-term assets in the space sector and said it would buy or add on volatility.

10. The 60+ day delinquency rate on U.S. subprime auto loans has climbed to roughly 5.2%, the highest level on record and more than double where it was four years ago. Serious subprime auto delinquencies are now about 1.7 percentage points above their 2008 financial crisis peak, while prime auto loan delinquencies have also risen to around 0.4%, near the highest level since 2011. At the same time, total U.S. auto debt increased by $28B in Q2 2026 to a record $1.71T.

11. Onchain tokenized equity holders have reached a record 1.9M, up 134% month-over-month and 1,360% year-to-date. Just 10 months ago, fewer than 100,000 people held tokenized assets, but demand for 24/7 markets and access to names tied to the record IPO wave, including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, has accelerated adoption. Jupiter, the largest onchain trading platform on Solana, has driven much of the growth, with 61% of volume now happening during off-hours and active tokenized equity traders up 46% month-over-month.

12. Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) will begin disclosing Azure revenue as part of a major FY27 reporting overhaul, shifting from three business segments to two: Agents & Infrastructure and Devices & Consumer. For Q1 FY27, Microsoft expects Azure growth of 44%-45% in constant currency, Agents & Infrastructure revenue of $75.15B-$75.75B, Devices & Consumer revenue of $14.7B-$15.2B, Microsoft 365 Commercial Cloud growth of about 17% in constant currency, and Search & Ads ex-TAC growth in the mid-to-high single digits. The new structure marks Microsoft’s biggest reporting change since adopting its prior three-segment model in FY2016.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$Broadcom(AVGO.US) absolutely crushed earnings

if hock is legit guiding to $30 of EPS by FY 28, on a 20x multiple this is a $600 stock for a company growing 50%+

even at a 15x multiple, this is a $450 stock

now imagine they do $40-$50 of EPS and we keep the same 15-20x multiple which feels pretty reasonable for 50% growth…we get into that $700-$1000 range

however, stock is flat because most of that growth will be because of OpenAI and Anthropic

ultimately much of the semiconductor optimism is still tied to those two companies continuing to spend, same for Nvidia and the hyperscalers

going to be important to see if $Broadcom(AVGO.US) Broadcom can actually generate meaningful revenues from those companies because right now it seems to be a levered bet on them which is also why the stock is discounted and has been flat all year

Source: amit

TRUMP:

- I COULDN’T CARE LESS ABOUT IRAN

- I LIKE OUR POSITION ON THE STRAIT

- WHEN WILL THE IRANIAN PEOPLE STAND UP AND FIGHT

well, welcome to September folks

Source: amit

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

PALANTIR WINS A NEW U.S. ARMY TITAN PRODUCTION CONTRACT.

- The U.S. Army awarded Palantir a prime agreement to produce and deliver 8 new TITAN ground station systems, 4 Advanced and 4 Basic, with additional technology integration and operational fielding.

- TITAN is the Army’s next-generation AI/ML-powered deep-sensing platform, combining data from space, high-altitude, aerial, and terrestrial sensors to generate targeting intelligence for mission command and long-range precision fires.

- Palantir is the prime contractor, overseeing manufacturing, delivery, and the software powering TITAN, alongside partners including Anduril, L3Harris, Sierra Nevada, Strategic Technology Consulting, and World Wide Technology.

- Palantir USG President & CTO Akash Jain: “TITAN was shaped by the Soldiers who used it, in the conditions they used it in, against the standard they set. That is the only way a system like this earns its place in the field.”

This is a really, really important deal because TITAN puts Palantir at the center of the Army’s AI-enabled battlefield architecture.

It also reinforces Palantir’s role as a prime defense contractor, not just a software vendor, giving it deeper ownership of mission-critical systems and potentially expanding its long-term opportunity across the U.S. military.

LETS. GO.

PTFB.

Source: amit

$Dell Tech(DELL.US)

Dell once again with a MONSTER beat and raise.

- Revenue: $47.0B vs. $44.9B est, +58% YoY, a quarterly record.

- Adj. EPS: $7.04 vs. $4.91 est, +203% YoY from $2.32.

- AI Servers: $16.4B revenue, roughly +100% YoY; Dell booked a massive $60.9B of AI server orders during the quarter.

- AI Backlog: surged to a record $95B, up from $51.3B last quarter, one of the biggest numbers in the report.

- Infrastructure: Traditional servers/networking revenue $10.5B, +122% YoY; storage $4.9B, +26%.

- FY27 Revenue Guide: raised dramatically to ~$192B, versus the prior $165B–$169B range.

Incredible print.

Source: amit

Red candles just hit any hint of momentum we were seeing today based on these two headlines:

- Reports of explosions heard in southern Iran, Qeshm island, Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, and Konarak port. Reports of possible new US airstrikes in Iran as with the Konarak naval base being targeted several times.

- U.S. embassy in Jerusalem has issued a warning stating that "Americans in the Middle East should exercise heightened vigilance" amid the risk of further regional escalation.

Crude just below $90, last time it touched $90 was July 23rd.

Source: amit

CAN YOU BELIEVE IT IS SEPTEMBER?

Historically, it is the worst month of the year.

September is usually down 0.6% on average and only higher around 45% of the time. It has also been the worst month over the past 10 years and the 3rd worst month in a midterm year.

Stocks are red in the premarket has two Saudi oil tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz last night, each vessel carrying 2M barrels of oil.

Crude is up 3% to $87.5 and the 10-yr yield just hit its highest level since Jan 2025. September rate hike probabilities are now 65%, up from 30% last week.

At the same time, last year September was very strong because the S&P took a big drawdown in April with liberation day. This year, the S&P already had a 10% correction in March and the deleveraging event in July took most high-beta names down 40-50%.

The question now is if those two drawdowns happening were enough to avoid a normal September hit.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US) rose 5% today, marking its best day since early July. The move comes ahead of Tesla’s upcoming Cybercab Launch Event, where investors will be watching for concrete updates on robotaxi deployment, Cybercab production, autonomy progress, and whether Tesla can turn the vehicle from a concept into a real revenue-generating fleet. Tesla has already disclosed that Cybercab production has started, with public-road engineering tests and employee rides beginning at Giga Texas. The key question is whether the event delivers actual deployment details rather than another demo, including timing, fleet size, city expansion, and cost-per-mile economics.

2. Treasury Secretary Bessent today at the G20 summit said he believes the Japanese government and Bank of Japan will take actions that lead to a stronger yen. On the Fed, he said he would not speculate on what policymakers may or may not do, but added that traditionally “you don’t raise into a supply shock.” On bonds, Bessent said he and Warsh are “on the same page,” while noting he does not believe he can change the market’s equilibrium price. He also said Trump believes Iran is not ready to make a deal yet, and that Operation Outcast is aimed at creating conditions that bring Iran back to the table.

3. Anthropic has reportedly signed a $35B cloud deal with Lambda, an Nvidia-backed cloud provider, according to WSJ. The twist: Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is effectively the landlord. The data center is being built by Hut 8 in Nueces County, Texas, and Nvidia signed its own agreement with Hut 8 a few weeks ago to lock down the capacity. Lambda will use that space to run chips it bought from Nvidia, which is also one of its investors. The deal highlights how Nvidia is extending its role beyond selling GPUs and deeper into the AI infrastructure stack with financing, capacity access, cloud partners, and the physical data center footprint behind frontier AI demand.

4. The FTC and 22 states are reportedly preparing to sue Amazon $Amazon(AMZN.US) over alleged secret ad price hikes. The FTC is expected to claim Amazon manipulated its ad auctions by inserting its own “soft reserve” bid above the runner-up bid, effectively raising the minimum price advertisers had to pay. The practice allegedly began in 2018 and generated tens of billions of dollars over 7 years. In recent years, Amazon allegedly used the mechanism to raise minimum bids 70%–80% of the time, with the FTC claiming it increased pay-per-click costs by as much as 50% on major shopping days. Amazon generated $68B in advertising revenue in 2025, and this would mark the FTC’s third major case against the company after its Prime case and ongoing monopoly lawsuit.

5. Retail investors bought roughly $250M of Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) shares on Wednesday, their 3rd-largest daily purchase since mid-May. That extended the retail buying streak to 15 consecutive trading sessions, with investors purchasing more than $2.5B of Nvidia stock over that period. For context, the largest daily retail purchase came in late February at about $1.0B. Over the last 12 months, retail investors have bought roughly $30.0B of Nvidia shares, the most of any Magnificent 7 company.

6. The White House published details of the U.S.–Venezuela oil deal, saying Venezuela has granted North American Blue Energy Partners 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields. The fields reportedly contain roughly 65B barrels of proven oil reserves, while NABEP plans to invest up to $100B into Venezuelan oil infrastructure to rapidly increase production. As part of the deal, the U.S. government receives a 35% equity stake in NABEP’s parent company at “zero cost to taxpayers,” the right to purchase 20% of all current and future production at production cost, and the right of first refusal on the remaining 80%. The U.S. also gets veto power over board appointments, with a majority of NABEP’s board required to be U.S. citizens. Venezuela is expected to receive roughly $200B in royalties and tax payments over the first 25 years, while the White House is calling it the “biggest oil deal in world history.”

7. U.S. annual interest expense has climbed to a record 18.5% of federal government revenue, officially surpassing the prior record of 18.4% set in 1991. This share has more than quadrupled over the last 4 years as interest costs on public debt have surged. Annual interest expense now stands at a record $1.25T, more than 4x the level seen in 1991. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield is trading around 5.21%, just 13 bps below its highest level since 2007. For context, the 30-year yield was around 8.00% in 1991, highlighting how much larger the U.S. debt burden has become.

8. BofA reiterated its Buy rating on Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) with an $810 price target, highlighting the potential launch of Meta’s consumer AI agent Hatch in early September inside Instagram and WhatsApp. Hatch can reportedly browse websites and navigate user interfaces to complete autonomous tasks like purchases, restaurant bookings, form filling, and communications. Meta is also reportedly targeting an October launch for its new AI model, Watermelon, which has shown frontier-level performance on certain internal benchmarks, with Hatch expected to integrate Watermelon’s automation capabilities after launch. BofA sees a major long-term opportunity in consumer AI agents, with Meta’s global user base giving it a significant adoption advantage, but said success will depend on ease of use, real utility, ecosystem integration, user trust around automation and security, and subscription pricing that creates consumer value while earning a return on Meta’s compute investment.

9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 4.4M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.3M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.3M contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 952K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 606K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 561K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 470K contracts, $PG & E(PCG.US) with 460K contracts, and $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) with 453K contracts.

10. Trump said interest rates are “too high” and said he has “a lot of respect” for Fed’s Warsh, adding that Warsh will “do what he has to do.” On Iran, Trump said any strikes would be limited, while noting that a lot of oil is still coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. He said ships came through Hormuz last night with Navy assistance and that the U.S. is averaging about 30 ships per night out of the Strait. Trump also said Iran “doesn’t know who the leader is,” adding, “we’ll see what happens.”

11. Take-Two $Take-Two Interactive Software(TTWO.US) fell 7% as GTA 6 leaks continued ahead of the November 19 release. Recent leaked footage has reportedly shown combat, vehicle theft, the return of the six-star wanted system, a biplane flight over Vice City, and a 4.5-minute Lucia story clip. The pressure reflects growing concern around how much of the game is being revealed before launch, even as GTA 6 remains one of the most anticipated releases in gaming history.

12. China’s CXMT has reportedly started small-scale production of HBM3E, the advanced memory used in AI processors including Nvidia’s H200 and Blackwell GPUs, according to The Information. Alibaba’s T-Head and Cambricon are already testing CXMT’s HBM with their AI chips and could begin using it in products as early as 2027, with CXMT planning to expand production next year. The development could ease a key bottleneck for China’s domestic AI-chip industry, which remains restricted from buying the most advanced foreign HBM. The caveat is that CXMT is still facing low yields and remains roughly 3–5 years behind the leading HBM players, while $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) are already mass-producing HBM4 and sampling HBM4E.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

everyone at this G20 summit is saying the high bond yields aren't an issue and growth will solve everything

bessent went as far as to say, "well, the 10-year is actually felt since Trump took office."

which, he's right about because it was at 4.8% in January 2025 but it's also ignoring that at the time, the administration was freaking out about how to bring yields down which seems like the same concern today given the treasury said they'd buy back $1T of bonds last week

who knows...maybe the market can handle high yields?

yes, the 40T in debt really isn't the biggest short term concern since everyone continues to trade in USD but the cost of refinancing the $10T of debt we have to sell by end of year is affected by yields which makes it feel like something that matters more than these business leaders are saying

not to mention, the easiest way to get yields down is for the fed to raise rates since then there will be more incentive for people to buy bonds, but raising rates isn't really what the administration wants

very weird macro we are in but if stocks can handle high yields then maybe it is the new normal!

Source: amit

TRUMP:

- THE PEOPLE WHO ARE AGAINST DATACENTERS WANT TO BE POOR

- CHINA COULD NOT BE HAPPIER WITH THIS ANTI DATACENTER MOVEMENT

Source: amit

Over the weekend…

- US strikes Iran for the first time in 30 days

- Iran strikes US bases

- Trump vows to strike back

- Iran vows to not tolerate any strikes

10-year treasury yield hits a new 52 week high 🫠

Source: amit

they really pumped everything 5 min after Warsh’s speech as if he wasn’t the most hawkish we’ve ever seen 💀

40 min later everything reacted the way it probably should have right after his speech

still…kinda feels like he was hawkish to ensure credibility vs actually signaling he is going to hike

future market now pricing a 60% chance vs 32% yesterday for raising rates

what do people think? september hike coming?

Source: amit

WARSH:

WHILE THIS SUMMER’S PCE AND CPI READINGS WERE BETTER THAN EXPECTED, THEY DO NOT TELL ME THAT UNDERLYING TRENDS HAVE MEANINGFULLY IMPROVED.

man are they really gonna hike…

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) added roughly $453B in market cap in a single day, the largest one-day market-cap gain ever recorded in the U.S., as Wall Street rushed to reset targets after Q2 earnings. Raymond James raised its price target to $515 from $352 and reiterated Strong Buy, citing Nvidia’s FY28 outlook for approximately 70% revenue growth and saying $1T in annual sales by FY29 now looks possible. The firm highlighted architectural evolutions like NVL racks at 1:1 and agentic Vera CPU racks as growth accelerators, while also expecting non-hyperscale revenue to outgrow hyperscaler revenue. Other target hikes included JPMorgan to $320 from $280, Mizuho to $315 from $300, Melius to $425 from $400, Goldman Sachs to $300 from $285, Bernstein to $400 from $315, Citi to $315 from $300, and Stifel to $315 from $282.

2. Marvell $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) reported Q2’27 revenue of $2.7B, roughly in line with estimates of $2.71B and up 37% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.94 versus $0.92 expected, up 40% YoY, while Data Center revenue reached $2.2B, up 46% YoY. Marvell guided Q3 revenue to $3.15B +/- 5%, ahead of the $3.03B estimate, and adjusted EPS to $1.10 +/- $0.05 versus $1.07 expected. The bigger update was the long-term outlook: management now expects FY27 revenue to grow roughly 45% YoY to about $12B, with Data Center up around 60%, and FY28 revenue to reach roughly $18B, up about 50% YoY, with Data Center growing more than 60% and custom chip revenue more than doubling. Marvell also said revenue tied to the Google warrant agreement through FY28 is already included in its prior custom revenue target, while AI-related bookings remain “exceptionally robust.”

3. Wolfe Research named Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) a top pick for 2027, reiterated an Outperform rating, and set a $460 price target while raising estimates. The firm now sees $595B of revenue, up 10% versus its prior estimate, and EPS of $15.89, up 6% versus prior. Wolfe estimates Google could generate more than $105B in TPU revenue next year at roughly 30% margins, producing about $32B of TPU operating income. The firm also sees cumulative TPU-related revenue reaching $300B through FY28, Google’s power capacity scaling to 21 GW next year and 28 GW in 2028, and GCP eventually contributing up to 40% of Alphabet’s total operating income.

4. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 7.4M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 1.6M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 875K contracts, $Strategy(MSTR.US) with 840K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 751K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 743K contracts, $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 740K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 668K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 660K contracts, and $PG & E(PCG.US) with 633K contracts.

5. The White House is weighing a new round of semiconductor tariffs that could extend beyond chips to products like servers, laptops, and gaming consoles, according to Politico. One proposal would link tariff-free import allowances to how much companies commit to U.S. chip manufacturing, while a phase-in period is also under discussion. No final tariff rate or framework has been set. Tech companies are warning that broader duties could raise AI data center costs and pressure chip designers like Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) and AMD $AMD(AMD.US), which still rely heavily on overseas manufacturing.

6. BofA initiated coverage on Amkor $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US) with a Buy rating and $70 price target, calling it an underappreciated beneficiary of rising semiconductor packaging complexity, AI/HPC advanced packaging demand, improving utilization, and U.S. supply-chain regionalization. Advanced Products made up 82% of Q2’26 revenue, with BofA seeing opportunities across 2.5D, HDFO-RDL, HDFO-bridge, co-packaged optics, and test. The firm expects computing to become Amkor’s largest end market by 2028, supported by programs including Nvidia’s Vera CPU, Microsoft’s Cobalt CPU, and AMD’s Venice server CPU. BofA also highlighted the planned Arizona facility, with Phase 1 expected to be fully committed, Apple and Nvidia identified as key customers, a 10-year TSMC agreement, and an expected $1.5B Nvidia prepayment in 2027. The firm forecasts EPS rising from $1.51 in 2025 to $3.41 in 2028, a 31% CAGR, and bases its $70 target on 21x 2028E EPS.

7. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) could spend up to $10B a year on Anthropic AI, according to NYT. Meta has reportedly become one of Anthropic’s largest customers and is still spending hundreds of millions of dollars per month on its tools. The company has used Anthropic models to help power and test its upcoming personal AI agent, Hatch, even as it builds competing products internally. Meanwhile, employees are increasingly shifting to Meta’s Muse Code, while its new frontier model, Watermelon, has reportedly been delayed until at least October.

8. IREN $IREN(IREN.US) reported Q4 FY26 revenue of $137.2M, roughly in line with estimates, while adjusted EBITDA came in at $19.2M versus $41.1M expected. AI Cloud revenue rose to $70.5M in Q4 from $33.6M, while FY26 AI Cloud revenue reached $128.8M, up roughly 8x YoY. Full-year revenue was $707.0M, below the $740M estimate, and net loss was $702.6M, including $638.8M of impairments tied largely to decommissioning Bitcoin mining hardware as sites are converted for AI Cloud growth. The bigger story is the AI infrastructure pipeline: IREN says operating ARR is $1B today, contracted ARR for 2026 capacity is $4B, 2026 capacity is largely sold out, and capacity delivery is expected to reach 0.3 GW in 2026 and 0.8 GW in 2027. The company also secured $2.8B of new GPU financing, has $14B of cash and committed financing, and says recent 3-year contract pricing has increased 125%, with active discussions around $25M of revenue per IT MW.

9. Hedge funds bought the most global energy stocks in nearly 4 years last week, marking their 12th weekly purchase over the last 13 weeks. As a result, hedge funds are now the most overweight energy relative to global stocks since June 2024. That is a sharp reversal from February 2026, when they were the most underweight energy since 2021. The only period with materially higher energy exposure relative to global equities was during the 2022 energy bull market.

10. U.S. corporate profits surged 22.8% YoY in Q2 2026 to a record $4.8T, the largest annual increase since Q4 2021. Excluding the pandemic recovery and the post-2008 Financial Crisis rebound, this was the strongest YoY profit growth in 21 years. Since Q2 2020, corporate profits have climbed $2.7T, or 131%. As a percentage of GDP, corporate profits jumped 1.0 percentage point in Q2 to 14.9%, an all-time high.

11. Citadel Securities posted a record Q2, with trading revenue reaching $7.3B, more than 3x YoY, and net income rising more than 250% YoY to $3.3B. The firm now handles more than one-third of U.S. retail stock trades, with high-touch equities helping drive the quarter’s results. Citadel Securities was also profitable in July and expects to remain profitable in August.

12. Trump praised Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) after the company announced a $10B investment in new U.S. research labs focused on AI and advanced computing. He said the new investment comes on top of Micron’s previous $250B U.S. commitment and will help create tens of thousands of American jobs. Trump framed the announcement as part of a broader push to bring critical technologies back to the U.S., saying companies are investing trillions under his administration because America is the best place to build, invent, and grow.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

NVIDIA PRICE TARGETS AFTER Q2 EARNINGS:

JP Morgan $280 —> $320

Mizuho $300 —>$315

Melius $400 —> $425

Goldman Sachs $285 —> $300

Bernstein $315 —>$400

Citi $300 —> $315

Stifel $282 —> $315

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) reported Q2’27 revenue of $96.2B, beating estimates of $92.2B and up 106% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.22 versus $2.10 expected, up 120% YoY. Data Center revenue reached $89.0B, above the $85.8B estimate and up 117% YoY, while adjusted gross margin was 75.0%, in line with expectations and up 250 bps YoY. Nvidia guided Q3 revenue to $108.0B +/- 2%, ahead of the $104.2B estimate, with adjusted gross margin expected at 74.0% +/- 50 bps. The company generated $64.0B of adjusted operating income, $54.0B of adjusted net income, and $21.3B of free cash flow, while returning roughly $26.0B to shareholders in Q2 with about $99.0B remaining on its authorization. Nvidia said its outlook assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China, while Vera Rubin is ramping into full production with racks running at partners.

2. US GDP came in at 1.5% QoQ, matching estimates. PCE rose 0.2% MoM versus 0.1% expected and 3.7% YoY versus 3.6% expected, while Core PCE was in line at 0.2% MoM and 3.3% YoY. Consumer spending increased 0.2% MoM, above the 0.1% estimate, and personal income rose 0.4% MoM, ahead of the 0.2% estimate. Real personal consumption was flat at 0.0% MoM, matching expectations.

3. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) agreed to an $18B youth safety commitment as part of its settlement with U.S. states, including $17B tied to broader settlement terms and $2.2B payable to California. Under the deal, Meta will spend the money over 10 years on youth online safety initiatives and implement new protections for users under 18, including limiting social media use to 2 hours per day and blocking access from 12 a.m. to 6 a.m. Compliance will be monitored by an independent auditor for 5 years. Meta will accrue about $10B in legal expenses in Q3 2026, but says its July financial guidance remains unchanged. The company also said $5.3B of the settlement is tied to YouTube and TikTok implementing similar daily limits, night mode, and age assurance measures.

4. The Bank of Korea raised rates by 25 bps to 3.00%, marking its second straight hike and the first back-to-back rate increases since the COVID era. The central bank also raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.3% from 2.6%, signaling stronger confidence in the economy even as it tightens policy.

5. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) has agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $12.9B, according to The Information. Strategically, this would give Nvidia a much deeper foothold in the open-source AI ecosystem, where Hugging Face has become one of the main distribution layers for models, datasets, and developer workflows. The likely goal is not just owning another AI asset, but controlling more of the software layer around AI adoption: GPUs, networking, CUDA, inference infrastructure, and now a major platform where developers actually build, share, and deploy models. For Nvidia, this makes the ecosystem stickier and strengthens its position as AI shifts from training frontier models to deploying millions of inference workloads across enterprises.

6. U.S. new home sales fell 10.5% MoM in July to 607,000 units, the lowest level in 6 months and far worse than the 1.4% decline expected. Excluding January 2026, this was the weakest reading since November 2022. New home sales have now declined in 3 of the last 4 months and are down 6.3% YoY. The Midwest saw the sharpest drop, with sales plunging 42.7% MoM to 43,000, the lowest level since 2012. Sales in the South, the largest homebuying region at more than 60% of total sales, fell 13.0% to 383,000, the second-lowest level since January. The weakness comes as the 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.81%, its highest since August 2025, continuing to pressure homebuyer demand.

7. An IRGC spokesperson said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen unless the U.S. accepts Iran’s conditions. Those conditions reportedly include foreign warships staying at least 400 km away and no vessel transiting the Strait without Iran’s permission. The IRGC also said Iran and Oman have agreed to share revenue from shipping through the Strait, adding another layer of geopolitical and energy-market risk around one of the world’s most important chokepoints.

8. CrowdStrike $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US) reported Q2’27 revenue of $1.47B, beating estimates of $1.44B and up 26% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.31 versus $0.29 expected, up 35% YoY, while free cash flow reached $377.4M, above the $353M estimate and up 33% YoY. Net new ARR hit a record $333M, up 51% YoY, bringing total ARR to $5.84B, up 25% YoY. CrowdStrike raised FY27 guidance to $5.99B–$6.01B in revenue, $1.25–$1.26 in adjusted EPS, and $6.60B–$6.61B in ARR. Management called Q2 the best quarter in company history, citing record Falcon Flex results, record net new ARR, stronger retention, and a Mythos-driven tailwind as AI adoption increasingly needs security at scale. $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US) was up 10% after hours.

9. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.7M contracts, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.5M contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 1.7M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.4M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 742K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 695K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 603K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 595K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 579K contracts, and $AMD(AMD.US) with 404K contracts.

10. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Nvidia's CFO today said revenue is expected to grow approximately 70% in FY28, even with a supply-constrained outlook. The company said Vera CPU is now in full production, shipments are already underway to lead partners, and CPU revenue is expected to more than double in FY28 against roughly $20B of total server CPU demand. Nvidia also said it began production shipments of Vera Rubin earlier this month, while neocloud partners are expected to exit the year with 8 GW of installed capacity, up from roughly 3 GW at the end of 2025. The CFO said cloud industry backlog now exceeds $2T, with capex from the top five hyperscalers expected to reach nearly $800B in 2026 and $1.3T in 2027. Nvidia also addressed “circular financing,” saying it has invested nearly $50B in frontier AI labs and expects AI lab demand supported by its balance sheet to contribute roughly 25% of the business next year.

11. Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) has reportedly hired Barret Zoph, co-founder and former CTO of Thinking Machines Lab, as VP of Research, according to WSJ. Zoph will work on Gemini, bringing expertise in reinforcement learning and post-training. Separately, SoftBank is reportedly in talks to acquire a majority stake in OpenAI-backed humanoid robot maker 1X at roughly a $6B valuation. 1X previously tried to raise $1B at a $10B valuation but raised less than half that target, while OpenAI also discussed acquiring the company last year before talks fell apart. 1X says it received more than 10,000 pre-orders for its $20,000 NEO humanoid in the first week, with deliveries planned for 2026, though none have been delivered yet.

12. AWS $Amazon(AMZN.US) and Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) announced a major expansion of their strategic AI infrastructure partnership, building on 16 years of joint innovation. As part of the expanded collaboration, AWS will deploy 2 million additional Nvidia GPUs across its global infrastructure in 2027–2028. The companies said they are deepening their work across AI factories, CPUs, networking, open models, data processing, and robotics, giving customers more ways to build and deploy AI at scale.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

I did not see a red flag in that Nvidia print.

Genuinely, I’m curious what red flags people are seeing. I’d be the first to nit-pick and try to figure out what the street is upset about, but this was genuinely one of the best calls Jensen has ever had.

It’s not even about the stock. Price is still below where it was just last week. I am trying to figure out if there is a reasonable argument outside of “AI is a bubble” to actually be meaningfully bearish here.

Jensen answered every question in a way that just proved demand was stronger than supply and Nvidia’s growth was not going to slow down.

- Beat the whisper numbers by a crazy amount including the guide.

- Bought back $20B of stock and guided to buy back a ton more.

- Kept margins basically the same.

- Answered circular financing fears by explaining how their model creates more proliferation of AI, even if bears don’t like their answer.

- Explained how open source and frontier models will work together.

- Said that their growth is only constrained because of the supply chain and nothing else.

- 40% of revenues are hyperscalers and even with increased competition, companies like Amazon pledged to buy ANOTHER 2M GPUs and even more CPUs.

- Street thought they’d do 40% rev growth next year and Jensen said the floor is basically 70% now.

Outside of the common bear cases, what was wrong with the print? Again, I don’t care much about the stock not moving because that is up to algos/the street/macro but for the company itself, I just do not see what to be meaningfully concerned about.

Source: amit

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) !!!!!

NVIDIA Q2 2026 EARNINGS:

- Revenue $96.2B +106% YoY

- Data Center Revenue $89.0B +117% YoY

- GAAP EPS $2.46 +128% YoY

- GAAP Operating Income $63.7B +124% YoY

- GAAP Gross Margin 75.0%

- Returned $26B to Shareholders in Q2

- Q3 Revenue Guidance of $108B

NVIDIA just doubled revenue at a nearly $100B quarterly run rate. It is the largest company in history to put up these numbers at this size.

CEO Jensen Huang:

“AI has reached its inflection point. It’s doing useful work. Its tokens are productive and profitable. Now, compute is revenue. And demand is accelerating. This time last year, one lab alone was driving the buildout; today, we have a golden age of new AI labs and startups, multiple frontier labs scaling in parallel, a thriving open-model ecosystem and physical AI coming online — with strong momentum across the U.S. and around the world. The AI infrastructure buildout is at full steam. Vera Rubin, now in full production, was built to power exactly this moment.”

LETS. GO.

Source: amit

I think $Vistra(VST.US) looks compelling here.

At $138, Vistra feels like one of the cleaner ways to play the AI/data center power trade without paying a large multiple.

The numbers:

- Q2 adjusted EBITDA: $1.77B, +31% YoY

- 2026 EBITDA guide: $6.8B-$7.6B

- 2026 FCF before growth: $3.9B-$4.7B

- 2027 core EBITDA opportunity: $7.4B-$7.8B

- Shares outstanding down ~30% since 2021

The obvious bottleneck continues to be energy and it seems like $Vistra(VST.US) is attacking that head on:

- AWS signed a 20-year deal for up to 1.2 GW from Comanche Peak.

- Meta signed 20-year agreements covering 2.6+ GW across Vistra’s nuclear fleet.

Roughly 3.8 GW tied to AWS + Meta alone. Then there is also Helix, the AI infrastructure platform with KKR, NVIDIA and KIA. Vistra is the preferred power provider for this.

VST is also acquiring Cogentrix, adding ~5.5 GW of gas generation, with the deal expected to be accretive to FCF/share starting in 2027.

The valuation is compelling:

At $138:

~13-15x forward EPS

~9-10x 2026 EV/EBITDA

~8x 2027 EV/EBITDA

~10-11x 2026 FCF before growth

Meanwhile $Constellation Energy(CEG.US) trades closer to ~22x forward earnings and ~14-15x EV/EBITDA.

I don’t think VST deserves CEG’s full multiple, but the gap looks wide given how much exposure VST has to the same nuclear/power scarcity theme. At the same time, CEG has almost the same amount of debt as VST at $19B. CEG has much more hyperscaler exposure so it deserves a higher premium, but it seems likely for VST to be rerated on solid execution.

The risks:

- Merchant power prices can weaken

- Debt/leverage is meaningful

- Nuclear outages/regulatory issues can hurt earnings

- AI power demand is already a crowded theme

- Heavy hedging limits near-term upside from higher spot power prices

- Cogentrix/Helix still need to execute

- More generation or slower AI capex could reduce the scarcity premium

The risks are important here but they are mainly tied to regulation/execution, the underlying thesis is that energy continues to be a huge bottleneck.

What I also like is that you don’t need some crazy AI multiple for this to work and deliver returns from here as the stock is already down 15% YTD:

- Bear: $110

7x EBITDA / ~$7B EBITDA

- Base: $185

9x EBITDA / ~$8B+ EBITDA

- Bull: $240

10-11x EBITDA / ~$9B EBITDA

$Vistra(VST.US) has $1.22B remaining on its buyback authorization and 336M shares outstanding, after repurchasing $778M of stock in 2026 and $6.5B since November 2021, helping reduce its share count by roughly 30% since 2021. That’s actually interesting now because the stock is around $138 so if management keeps allocating FCF to repurchases at these lower prices, every $1B of buybacks would retire roughly 7.2M shares, or a little over 2% of the current share count.

Finally, Peter Thiel bought $59M of it in Q2 and David Tepper added to his position by 10% making it now worth 4% of his portfolio with a $350M position size.

I took a small starter position today to keep track of it as I'm still doing DD but it does feel more compelling than not.

Source: amit

taking a flyer on $American Airlines(AAL.US)

back to $75 on crude will likely get us back to $16 on AAL and if we can get under $70 then the $18s are in play

realistically, most of the airlines/cruiselines should benefit when oil goes down

simple logic for oil going down?

well, it’s down 3% today on the hint of cooperation from the Iranians with the Pakistani intermediaries

if we actually get some meaningful updates on a deal (bond market is screaming to make some progress here) then most oil sensitive names should react

all depends on when this war comes to an end or seems like it is ready to come to an end

Source: amit

WSJ: ANTHROPIC EXPECTED TO TELL INVESTORS THEY HAVE A $30T TAM IN THEIR S-1 BEFORE IPO

okay, they are absolutely getting ready to juice this thing

is it crazy to say not buying the IPO and waiting makes sense here?

- VCs ready to dump on retail

- LLM commodity argument has not been proven false yet

- Street will put Anthropic into a bucket of semis making it incredibly volatile

- $2T valuation when companies like META are barely above $1.5T feels aggressive

feels like waiting is the play vs jumping into the IPO?

Source: amit