ARKK UPDATES THEIR 2031 $Tesla(TSLA.US) TESLA VALUATION MODEL, SEES BASE CASE OF $4400/SHARE, A 12X FROM TODAY’S PRICES

- Robotaxis are expected to drive 80% of Tesla’s enterprise value by 2031, making autonomous transportation the overwhelming driver of ARK’s valuation. ARK projects 8.1 million robotaxis generating $753 billion in annual ride-hailing revenue, supported by operating costs potentially 40% below Waymo’s and a massive expansion of the ride-hailing market through lower prices.

- Optimus humanoid robots are emerging as Tesla’s second major growth engine, with ARK forecasting approximately 1 million externally sold robots and $212 billion in annual revenue by 2031. ARK estimates a $26 trillion addressable market for humanoid robotics and expects Tesla to invest approximately $225 billion cumulatively in AI infrastructure by 2031 to support its ambitions.

In the base case, Tesla would be worth $18T within the next 4 years.

Source: amit