amit

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

Woah.

SMCI guided for 8.4-8.7% gross margins last quarter. They have a TTM gross margin of 8.83%.

They just came out after hours and said they are increasing their guide for gross margins to now 15-17%.

Even during 2024-2025, their gross margins went from 11-13%.

How does a commodity server rack provider double their margins in the past 90 days?

If anything, it feels like the company is either rolling out new products with better margins in the AI space or gaining more leverage with their customers to command better margins. If a low margin business like $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) can gain leverage, then other AI names can as well, which is part of the reason that competitors like $Dell Tech(DELL.US) and $Hewlett Packard Enterprise(HPE.US) are up after hours.

Pretty incredible move from SMCI and could be a big moment for many AI names that are able to increase margins.

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) +15%

Source: amit

The Semis are having their best day in a few weeks, but still significantly lower from their ATHs.

If the Semis have a good day, once again it means the SaaS and Mag 7 names should have a bad day, which is what is playing out again.

At this point I am curious how this trajectory continues to play out — so far this year, hyperscalers go down on increased capex and semiconductor names, which benefit from that capex, go up. The software names go down with the hyperscalers because the AI infra trade going green assumes that the application layer companies will be hurt by AI.

However, we just saw one of the worst drawdowns for momentum (which were basically semis) during July in the past 25 years. Multiple stories of liquidations and margin calls across the board.

Does that experience mean people go back to buying the boring SaaS and Mag 7 companies to have more sustainable, less violent volatility with cash flows that won’t get discounted due to cyclicality or fears of capex going down? If anything, the Mag 7 would rally on capex going down.

Or do people double down on the AI infra names as they are likely to steal all the EPS growth and continue to get a larger premium based on the discount towards the companies spending the capex? Because if the money goes right back to the semis, we end up getting the same market dynamics that we’ve seen for the past 3 months.

If we do get a doubling down, does the same leverage that just got flushed out of the system come back? If the hyperscalers all increase capex, do they go down again in order for the semis to go up?

These big tech earnings will be really important to see how the market is perceiving and interpreting the future of capex spend.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US)

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) is developing a new AI chip that could run Gemini models 6x to 10x more efficiently than its latest TPUs, per The Information. The chip, internally called “Frozen v2,” would bake parts of Gemini’s architecture directly into silicon, reducing data movement and simplifying inference decisions. Google is targeting deployment as early as 2028 to help ease its AI compute shortage, though the design would trade flexibility for major gains in speed and power efficiency.

2. Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) is expanding its partnership with AMD $AMD(AMD.US) and will deploy AMD’s Helios rack-scale systems on Azure for frontier AI inference. The platform combines MI455X GPUs, Venice CPUs, Pensando networking, and ROCm software, with shipments to Microsoft beginning in the second half of 2026. Azure will also add new AMD-powered virtual machines for agentic AI, data pipelines, and semiconductor design, marking a broader adoption of AMD’s full AI infrastructure stack.

3. AUM in U.S. leveraged semiconductor ETFs has fallen $63B from the June peak to $100B, the lowest level since late April. That marks a 39% decline, the largest drawdown since April 2025, when assets more than halved from their August high. The semiconductor unwind accounts for 63% of the broader $100B drop in AUM across all U.S. leveraged ETFs over the same period. The selloff follows a massive ramp, with assets in these funds nearly tripling between late March and the June peak. Even after the pullback, leveraged semiconductor ETF assets are still up 400% from January 2023 levels.

4. Archer $Archer Aviation(ACHR.US) and Anduril unveiled Thunder, an autonomous attack VTOL aircraft, with first flight planned for 2027. The runway-independent hybrid-electric aircraft is designed to operate autonomously alongside crewed attack and assault aircraft. The dual-use platform features tiltrotors and modular payloads for both defense and commercial missions. Full-scale surrogate flights have already been completed, and Archer plans to announce its first commercial customers later this week.

5. Chinese AI models are taking record share among U.S. firms on OpenRouter. The proportion of tokens used by American companies running through Chinese models has climbed to roughly 58%, a record high. OpenRouter lets developers access and compare models from multiple providers, making it a useful real-world signal of AI model adoption. Chinese model usage has tripled since mid-January, overtaking U.S. peers on the platform for the first time in March and briefly hitting 63% in early July. At the start of 2025, Chinese models were under 10% of usage, while U.S. models were around 80%. DeepSeek has become the most popular choice among American firms in recent months.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.1M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.4M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.8M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 951K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 884K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 691K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 640K contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 606K contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 506K contracts, and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 492K contracts.

7. BofA reiterated its Buy rating on CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US) with a $140 price target. Analyst Tal Liani raised FY26 capex estimates to $34B from $29B, saying capex remains a key indicator of buildout progress and hardware pricing. BofA expects Q2 operating margin of 2.4%, slightly below the Street at 2.8%, but sees margins improving through the rest of the year as active power drives revenue recognition. By Q4, BofA expects operating margin to reach 14.6%, up from 1.0% in Q1, showing strong operating leverage. The firm also pushed back on competition concerns from SpaceX and Meta, arguing AI compute demand still far exceeds supply, making access to capacity the real bottleneck rather than provider choice.

8. IREN $IREN(IREN.US) raised its 2026 AI Cloud ARR target to over $4B, up from its prior target of $3.7B. The company announced new AI cloud contracts representing $2.8B in total contract value, with approximately 85% of the updated ARR target now under contract. Goldman Sachs estimates the newly announced contracts represent an additional roughly $1B in contracted revenue with an average term of around 3 years. IREN also said recent agreements include customer prepayments covering about 45% of GPU capex, with customer contracts having a weighted average term of approximately 4 years.

9. UBS says Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US) could repurchase more than 40% of its shares by the end of 2028. The firm expects Micron to generate over $40B in free cash flow through 2028, and once its buyback restriction expires on December 9, 2026, UBS says the company could potentially use that cash to buy back more than 40% of its shares at the current price. Morgan Stanley said that memory stocks are trading at attractive prices but their best risk to reward names in the semi space are $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Nvidia and $Broadcom(AVGO.US) Broadcom.

10. Bloom Energy $Bloom Energy(BE.US) shares are trading lower after New Mexico regulators rejected permits for a gas pipeline planned to supply Oracle’s Project Jupiter data center for the second time. The decision could delay the campus, which is expected to use up to 2.5GW of Bloom Energy’s gas-powered fuel cells. Energy Transfer may now pursue an alternative pipeline route.

11. Intel $Intel(INTC.US) plans additional layoffs in its data center group as part of a broader effort to become a more focused and efficient company, CNBC reports. Intel said the unit is realigning roles and skills for long-term success, though the number of affected employees was not disclosed.

12. Trump signed three proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 imposing additional 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods in response to what the White House calls Canada’s discriminatory treatment of U.S. products. The tariffs cover different categories of Canadian imports, including products ranging from wine to hockey sticks to cement, and apply even if goods originate under USMCA. Exemptions include energy, potash, goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs, fish, critical minerals, and certain other products. The tariffs take effect 30 days after signing.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATST SHOW ON EARTH,

Source: amit

TRUMP: EVERY TIME IRAN KILLS A US SOLIDER, THEY WILL PAY

So, the updates around the Iran War this morning have been confusing…

Reuters reported that Pakistan and Qatar are trying to create a “10-day framework” for a ceasefire which would put an end to the recent strikes. We initially had a 60 day ceasefire with the June MOU but that has since been violated.

That got oil prices to come down this morning from $85 to $82, but then…

- Bahrain reported Iranian attacks

- Kuwait intercepted Iranian missiles

- A Saudi Vessel caught on fire in the Strait due to attacks

- A Greek Vessel caught on fire due to attacks

This is along with the strikes that were continued this weekend by the US.

Maybe we get a 10 day pause to begin negotiations again but if we do, it just feels like much more has to be resolved in order to have that pause lead to an actual end to the conflict.

Source: amit

Although price action has been a bit weak today, some very bullish datacenter/capex news over the past 24 hours...

- $IREN(IREN.US) signed $2.8B of deals with AI labs, bullish compute

- Kimi K3 said over the weekend they are pausing subscriptions because of demand which seems to be entirely consumer and not enterprise yet, bullish compute

- $Hut 8 Mining(HUT.US) got a 15-year $9.8B deal today, bullish compute

- $Microsoft(MSFT.US) is expanding their partnership with $AMD(AMD.US) and buying more chips, bullish compute

- The Information reported that $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) is developing a new chip to use in-house called Frozen V2, they will have to use many of the chip suppliers in the stack to build more chips, bullish compute

The CapEx sentiment shift hasn't gone back to normal and Google earnings this week will be the first test to reaffirm the market's expectations of capex, but plenty of new deals and announcements that continue to be bullish on compute constraints and the trade associated with them overall.

Source: amit

Well, looks like this Iran War is not ending anytime soon...

- Over the past 24 hours, the the US announced that two service members were killed and several others were wounded in an Iranian attack on a US air base in Jordan.

- According to U.S. officials, the base has been used by American warplanes to conduct operations against Iran.

- Trump called the deaths of two U.S. service members in an Iranian attack “very sad,” according to NewsNation, reiterated that the U.S. will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, and said he “couldn’t care less” if Iran abandons the MOU.

Trump has reportedly ordered U.S. CENTCOM to "open the gates of hell" on Iran following the deaths of U.S. service members in Jordan, according to NPR, citing U.S. officials.

A separate U.S. official told CBS News that tonight's strikes are expected to be significantly larger and more extensive than previous operations.

Crude derivatives are trading at $83.60 today, up 18% from the lows two weeks ago.

Source: amit

$Grab(GRAB.US)

This will be a long post and dive into many things including Grab's stock performance, some updated thoughts on my Grab thesis after having visited Southeast Asia last month, and new models for valuation.

Let's get into it.

First off, it's obvious that the stock has not performed in the way that most would like since I first initiated coverage, which was at $4.50. The stock is currently at $3.57, so it is down 20% in the 1.5 years since I laid out my thesis.

I think there are many reasons for this but the common theme behind these reasons are less about the fundamentals and more about the macro. It sucks to say that because it would imply that larger forces have played a role outside of the business's execution, but I do think that has happened and unfortunately has made the investment, so far, unsuccessful.

Two major macro disruptions hurt grab: the price of oil skyrocketing and the violent shift to AI stocks. On the price of oil, the company actually has weathered the storm very nicely if you look at their latest earnings, but the sentiment around companies in a region that is prone to oil price risk has been very bad. On AI, this is something that I quite frankly just didn't see coming. $Uber Tech(UBER.US) is an exceptional business and in my opinion undervalued, but the overhang of robotaxis has led the stock to not do much. The intensity of the AI buildout that began in early 2025 meant that capital was rotating and Grab wouldn't play a role in that infra cap-ex trade which meant it would be prone to be stuck. I can't even blame the market here, why invest in a company that is growing 25% when you can pick memory names or neoclouds growing 500%?

Having said that, the fundamentals of the business have only gotten better. I know that in this market environment, if you can't get 20% ROI in a week then your stock is failure, but if we are being a bit more realistic...things take time. HOOD took time. PLTR took time. Not every name explodes because of a datacenter contract and I believe that has given some people unrealistic expectations. Regardless, an opportunity cost is an opportunity cost and if the stock price is the basis for judgement, then the investment has not fully played out yet. Thankfully, my time horizon is greater than 1.5 years. I did have calls on GRAB in addition to shares for Jan 2027 and if there is not a meaningful change over the coming months, those calls will be worth nothing. That is the game -- if you take a risk with options, you have to be ready for the downside.

Second, my experience in Southeast Asia. I visited Singapore and basically used GRAB every single day, multiple times a day. My initial thesis was based on a simple idea: compounding earnings growth while consolidating market share within the region. Being able to build the superapp that can grow users would allow upsells and as margins expand, so would operating leverage, which would elevate the company's value. Nothing in my personal experience changed that thesis and if anything, actually witnessing how intense the product was in the region strengthened my conviction.

In order to deal with competition in the region, Grab either has to expand or offer better deals to out compete. With 50M+ MAU, I believe they have still under penetrated the region and have a significant runway of growth to go in order to achieve these goals. Ultimately, many of the competitors in the region are burning cash and can't produce a profit. Eventually, I believe that marketshare continues to consolidate and the one left standing should be able to benefit the most.

Third, valuation. So, I have updated my models and assumptions based on Q1 numbers. I believe the conservative, fair intrinsic value for the name is at $7.50 which is why I continue to own shares.

Q1 2026:

Revenue guidance: $4.04-4.10B (+20-22%)

Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $700-720M (+40%+)

Q1 revenue: $955M (+24% YoY)

Q1 Adjusted EBITDA: $154M (+46% YoY)

Loan book: $1.44B (+130% YoY)

Financial Services approaching EBITDA breakeven

Ongoing $400M accelerated share repurchase

Net cash balance remains one of the strongest in internet/platform companies

For 2027, I would use deliberately conservative assumptions across all three scenarios.

In the bear case, Grab grows revenue by 15% to approximately $4.7 billion and reaches a 19% adjusted EBITDA margin, producing roughly $900 million of adjusted EBITDA. In the base case, revenue grows by 18% to about $4.85 billion, while the adjusted EBITDA margin expands to 22%, resulting in approximately $1.07 billion of adjusted EBITDA. In the bull case, revenue grows by 22% to around $5.0 billion and the adjusted EBITDA margin reaches 25%, generating about $1.25 billion of adjusted EBITDA. These projections assume only moderate operating leverage, even though Grab has recently been expanding profitability faster than revenue.

For valuation, I would apply an 18x adjusted EBITDA multiple in the bear case, a 24x multiple in the base case, and a 28x multiple in the bull case.

Grab should trade at some discount to larger global platforms because of its geographic concentration in Southeast Asia and the risks associated with emerging markets. However, that discount is partly offset by Grab’s leading regional position, improving margins, financial-services growth, strong balance sheet, advertising opportunity, and continued share repurchases.

In the bear case, applying an 18x multiple to $900 million of adjusted EBITDA produces an enterprise value of approximately $16.2 billion. After adding roughly $5 billion of net cash, Grab’s equity value would be about $21.2 billion. Using approximately 4.05 billion diluted shares outstanding, that implies a value of roughly $5.25 per share, with a reasonable bear-case range of approximately $5.25 to $5.75.

In the base case, applying a 24x multiple to approximately $1.07 billion of adjusted EBITDA produces an enterprise value of about $25.7 billion. Adding roughly $5 billion of net cash results in an equity value of approximately $30.7 billion. Based on approximately 4.05 billion diluted shares, the implied value is around $7.55 per share. That supports a base-case valuation range of approximately $7.50 to $8.25 per share.

In the bull case, applying a 28x multiple to $1.25 billion of adjusted EBITDA results in an enterprise value of approximately $35 billion. After adding roughly $5 billion of net cash, Grab’s equity value would reach about $40 billion. Dividing that by approximately 4.05 billion diluted shares produces an implied value of roughly $9.90 per share, supporting a bull-case range of approximately $9.75 to $11.00.

My preferred valuation framework therefore produces a bear case of $5.25 to $5.75 per share, a base case of $7.50 to $8.25 per share, and a bull case of $9.75 to $11.00 per share.

The base case does not require aggressive assumptions. It only assumes that Grab continues growing at a healthy but moderating rate, improves margins as the business scales, and receives a valuation multiple that remains below many higher-growth global technology and marketplace companies.

A valuation of $8.50 per share is also defensible without relying on an extreme bull case. One path would be for Grab to generate roughly $5 billion of revenue and achieve an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23% to 24%, producing approximately $1.15 billion of adjusted EBITDA. At a 24x multiple, that would imply an enterprise value of roughly $27.6 billion. Adding approximately $5 billion of net cash would produce an equity value of around $32.6 billion, or approximately $8.05 per share before factoring in additional share repurchases or stronger cash generation. A slightly higher EBITDA result, a modestly higher multiple, or a lower diluted share count could push the valuation into the $8.50 range.

Another path to $8.50 would be a moderate valuation rerating. If Grab generates approximately $1.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA and trades at 26x adjusted EBITDA rather than 24x, its enterprise value would be approximately $28.6 billion. After adding roughly $5 billion of net cash, the equity value would be about $33.6 billion, which translates to approximately $8.30 per share using 4.05 billion diluted shares. Additional buybacks, higher net cash, or slightly stronger earnings could bring the implied value closer to $8.50 to $9.00 per share.

The market may also be underestimating Grab because it is still often viewed primarily as a ride-hailing and food-delivery company. In reality, Grab is developing several potential profit engines. Mobility can continue generating strong margins and cash flow, delivery benefits from greater scale and operational efficiency, financial services could become a meaningful earnings contributor as the loan book grows, and advertising remains relatively early in its development. At the same time, artificial intelligence and automation may improve driver utilization, merchant performance, customer targeting, and corporate efficiency.

In all of these scenarios, I am also not anticipating revenue growth of 30% or above. This is the wild card, given the company is expanding to Taiwan and has a host of new initiatives that they have been getting into with M&A, if they can reaccelerate to 30%+, it changes all assumptions and could further lead to a rerating.

Overall, I would view approximately $7.50 as a conservative base-case intrinsic value if Grab simply executes on its current trajectory. A value closer to $8.50 is reasonable if the company delivers modest upside to current expectations, continues expanding margins, repurchases shares, and receives even a small valuation rerating from the market.

So, those are my updated thoughts. Some have asked why I don't talk about the name everyday, it's simple: there isn't much to discuss. The name is stuck based on the market's lack of interest which is why I think the discount has become so intense. I continue to hold and until I feel the thesis changes dramatically, if it doesn't, then I will continue to engage in the most boring part of investing: being patient and trusting a thesis can play out.

Source: amit

$Meta Platforms(META.US)

BREAKING: Meta is in talks to rent computing capacity to Anthropic in a deal worth up to $10B over 2 years, as per the New York Times.

Meta went down today on news that they hired a senior AWS executive to help build their cloud division.

Why? Because it was confirmation that they are doubling down on capex and selling compute, which means their FCF will take a hit. Ironically, the semis should have been up on this news but the Kimi K3 headlines have kept them down.

Now, Meta is slightly reversing on this headline about selling compute to Anthropic…which begs the question…if the market is happy about Meta selling compute to a big lab, why are they upset about Meta spending more on capex in order to build that compute business?

Tons of weird narratives conflicting with each other, but it looks like META is officially getting into the neocloud game.

Source: amit

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)

SpaceX has aborted a major test mission of their Starship rocket moments before liftoff

In Texas.

Well, the first real piece of news that has to due with the risky business of space has hit this stock as a public company.

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) -4%

Source: amit

its hard to say that semis have topped or that capex beneficiaries have topped

but the sentiment shift has absolutely been violent away from semis/capex names

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $ASML(ASML.US) crush earnings, doesn’t help

big tech will most likely increase capex going into Q2 and maybe calm things down

but this selloff feels completely sentiment driven vs fundamentally driven

having said that, the sentiment going bearish doesnt have to be because semi fundamentals are bearish, but it could be because people were yolo’ing into names up 4-5x YTD…

SPY is almost at ATH, so this absolutely is a reset and maybe a needed reset even if it has been painful for semis

if you are heavy SaaS and Mag 7, not feeling as much pain as most of that selloff already happened a few months ago

are you buying any of the semis here?

Source: amit

trump does have a speech tonight that is going to be primetime and mainly focused on Iran…

if he uses that speech as an opportunity to justify why he needs to escalate, the market could be front-running a spike in oil based on that speech

which could also explain the high beta selloff today

oil now back above $80 🤷‍♂️

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Momentum stocks are getting crushed in July. Goldman Sachs’ High-Beta Momentum Index is down 24% month-to-date through the first half of the month, its worst stretch since April 2009. Morgan Stanley’s Tech Momentum Index is also seeing its sharpest breakdown on record, with its 17-day rate of change down 35%, the worst move in its 27-year history. But the broader market is holding up better, with the S&P 500 green today as hyperscalers rallied, showing the market may be broadening out beyond the hardest-hit momentum names.

2. PPI came in cooler than expected across the board. Headline PPI was 5.5% YoY vs 6.2% expected, while PPI fell 0.3% MoM vs expectations for 0.0%. Core PPI was 4.7% YoY vs 5.1% expected, with Core PPI rising 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected.

3. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.7M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.8M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 2.5M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 1.0M contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 895K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 815K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 754K contracts, $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 717K contracts, and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 506K contracts.

4. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is expanding its Toyota partnership beyond autonomous driving, supplying AI hardware and software for smart cities, traffic systems, and factories. Toyota will use Nvidia technology in Woven City, along with Omniverse for assembly-line digital twins, Isaac robotics, and Nemotron LLMs.

5. CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US) is exploring financial hedges to protect against a future decline in memory and storage chip prices, per Reuters. Put options and other derivative instruments have reportedly been discussed, though talks are still early and no hedges have been executed. The issue: AI cloud providers have signed long-term supply deals with companies like Micron and SanDisk that include price floors for DRAM and storage chips. That protects chipmakers if prices fall, but could leave cloud buyers stuck paying above-market rates.

6. Anthropic is preparing investor meetings ahead of a potential IPO as soon as October, per Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are reportedly working on the listing. The Claude maker was valued at $965B after its May funding round, reportedly surpassing OpenAI.

7. Stripe and Advent have reportedly offered to buy PayPal $Paypal(PYPL.US) for $60.50/share, valuing the company at more than $53B, per Reuters. The offer is backed by roughly $50B in committed bank financing. Stripe and Advent would jointly own PayPal with equal stakes, rather than breaking the company up.

8. Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) is reportedly looking at AI chip acquisitions to strengthen its server-chip strategy, per The Information. The company has spoken with bankers and approached semiconductor startups as its current M2 Ultra-based AI servers struggle with more advanced AI workloads. Apple is also relying on Nvidia chips inside Google Cloud for heavier tasks, including parts of the revamped Siri. A future Apple AI server chip, code-named Baltra, was expected this year but has reportedly been delayed.

9. Nokia $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) will begin selling Nvidia-powered AI mobile network gear starting in 2027. The new AI-driven RAN platform is expected to improve spectrum efficiency by 50% next year and allow operators to transmit 2x more data over the same airwaves by 2028. The platform will also support software upgrades toward 6G and work with Open RAN standards.

10. Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) introduced an asset-light AI cloud model built through infrastructure partnerships. Under the model, partners will finance, own, and operate the data centers and hardware, while Nebius provides the architecture, software stack, supply-chain access, and sells the capacity through its own sales team. Nebius expects to generate revenue through revenue-sharing, licensing fees, commissions, and committed capacity agreements, with minimal incremental capital required.

11. ASML $ASML(ASML.US) reported a massive Q2 beat and raised FY26 guidance. Net sales came in at €9.33B vs €8.85B expected, EPS was €7.59 vs €6.90, and gross margin reached 54.0% vs 52% expected. ASML said customers are accelerating capex plans, visibility is stronger than usual, and it is already close to receiving all required 2027 EUV orders. Memory is expected to drive major growth, with FY26 memory revenue up roughly 75%, EUV revenue up 45%, and Installed Base Management revenue up more than 30%. The company also said its updated guidance includes expected demand from Elon Musk’s Terafab project, with ASML expecting to collaborate with Musk’s team as AI drives more advanced Logic and Memory lithography demand.

12. Leveraged ETFs are flooding the U.S. market. There are now a record 700 U.S.-listed leveraged ETFs, more than twice the count at the end of 2024, with 400+ tied to individual stocks. Roughly 210 new leveraged funds have launched this year, already exceeding the ~205 launched during all of 2025. Leveraged and inverse products represented 31% of U.S. ETF launches in the first half of 2026, up from 22% last year. June alone saw 117 leveraged or inverse ETF debuts, nearly half of all 239 ETFs launched in the U.S. that month.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

semis in absolute freefall

SaaS and hyperscalers finally getting some love

maybe a rotation really is happening but every time you think it does, the semis come back

fair to say that it was time for the market to finally show some love to other companies, most of the semis are still up huge YTD

SaaS and Mag 7 buys all winter might just get rewarded in the summer

Source: amit

PPI RESULTS ARE INCREDIBLE

JUNE PPI 5.5% VS 6.2% EXPECTED

CORE PPI 4.7% VS 5.2% EXPECTED

We might not get a cut soon but we definitely do not need a hike...

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. June U.S. inflation came in much cooler than expected. Headline CPI was 3.5% YoY vs 3.8% expected, while CPI fell 0.4% MoM vs expectations for 0.0%. Core CPI was 2.6% YoY vs 2.9% expected, with Core CPI flat at 0.0% MoM vs 0.2% expected. This marks the first negative monthly inflation reading since 2020.

2. President Trump said he has decided to replace the proposed 20% United States Reimbursement Fee on cargo through the Strait of Hormuz with trade and investment deals from Gulf States into the U.S. He said those investments will be “massive” while also being “extraordinarily good” for the Gulf States and their future.

3. IBM $IBM(IBM.US) went down 24% after preliminary Q2 results came in well below expectations. Revenue was $17.2B vs $17.86B expected, up just 1% YoY, with consulting revenue flat and infrastructure revenue down 7% YoY. CEO Arvind Krishna said that in the last few weeks of June, clients shifted quarterly capex toward servers, storage, and memory to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases, while cybersecurity concerns also distracted customers. IBM said it did not anticipate the magnitude of the capex reprioritization. The stock has lost roughly $65B in market cap.

4. Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) moved from $122 in the premarket to $135 as the market opened. The stock opened down on the $IBM(IBM.US) news around software spend shifting toward capex spend and recovered into the open, closing up 3%. $Microsoft(MSFT.US) Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella quoted Alex Karp yesterday in his piece about why the market needs to focus on true enterprise transformation, not just tokens, while Chamath said on CNBC today that Karp “deserves a medal” for being on the right side of history in calling out foundation model companies that take IP without delivering customer value.

5. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh today said in his congressional testimony that he is “doubling down” on the 2% inflation target and believes this Fed will deliver 2% inflation. He added that a broader price stability objective is still in the back of his mind and said the Fed will see if further reforms are needed. Warsh also said he is prepared to do everything he can to ensure the independent conduct of monetary policy.

6. New York is set to enact the first statewide data center moratorium in the U.S., per NYT. Gov. Kathy Hochul will pause approvals for new hyperscale data centers using 50MW+ of power for one year while the state studies energy, water, and environmental impacts. The order takes effect immediately, but does not impact projects that already have required permits. Hospitals, universities, and back-office financial services are not expected to be affected.

7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.1M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 1.4M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 707K contracts, $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) with 646K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 562K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 551K contracts, $IBM(IBM.US) with 494K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 492K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 478K contracts, and $Terawulf(WULF.US) with 420K contracts.

8. Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) agreed to sell $1B+ of AI compute to Reflection AI through 2029, giving the company access to Nvidia GB300 chips. Reflection AI, founded by two former Google DeepMind researchers, also signed a multibillion-dollar compute deal with SpaceX last month and has reportedly discussed raising $2.5B at a $25B valuation. Nebius already has compute agreements with Microsoft and Meta.

9. OpenAI is developing a screen-free, battery-powered smart speaker designed as a humanlike AI companion and a new home AI computer. The first consumer product is reportedly focused on voice interaction and ambient presence, giving users an AI assistant they can build a connection with. The device includes a camera and other sensors to understand surroundings and context, while tapping into ChatGPT for richer assistance than conventional smart speakers. It can control smart-home appliances, play media, answer questions, respond to messages, help with chores, assist with cooking, and play music as it moves around the home.

10. Aehr $Aehr Test(AEHR.US) reported a strong Q4 beat and guided well above the Street. Q4 EPS came in at $0.11 vs -$0.01 expected, while revenue was $18.8M vs $18.69M expected. The company also received $8M+ in new silicon carbide wafer-level burn-in orders as EV programs ramp, including a follow-on WaferPak order from its lead SiC production customer and a direct order from one of the world’s top two automakers to qualify SiC suppliers for next-gen EVs. Aehr said its lead customer indicated additional capacity needs this fiscal year. Most importantly, $Aehr Test(AEHR.US) guided FY27 revenue to $130M–$150M, far above the Street at $85M.

11. Big banks reported a very strong Q2, with Goldman Sachs $Goldman Sachs(GS.US), Bank of America $Bank of America(BAC.US), JPMorgan $JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US), and Wells Fargo $Wells Fargo(WFC.US) all beating expectations. Goldman was the standout, with revenue of $20.34B vs $16.35B expected and EPS of $20.98 vs $14.45, driven by a massive 53% YoY jump in Global Banking & Markets and a 72% YoY surge in Equities S&T. Bank of America beat on revenue and EPS, with trading revenue ex-DVA up 33% YoY. JPMorgan posted revenue of $58.02B vs $51.39B expected and EPS of $7.70 vs $5.72, though NII was roughly in line. Wells Fargo also beat, with revenue up 9% YoY, EPS up 25% YoY, and net loan charge-offs coming in better than expected. Overall, the quarter showed stronger trading, resilient credit, and better-than-expected earnings power across the big banks.

12. South Korea is seeing an unprecedented foreign investor pullback. Overseas investors have dumped $110B of Korean equities so far this year, already far beyond the prior 7-year full-year high of $22B in 2021. The selling intensified in June, when foreigners unloaded $31B, the biggest monthly outflow ever recorded. At the same time, local buyers have stepped in aggressively, with domestic retail investors purchasing $60B and institutions adding $15B since May began. The pressure is now spilling into leveraged retail accounts: as of July 13, 1.2M Korean margin accounts had triggered margin calls, with roughly 320K–360K accounts fully liquidated by brokers.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. Trump says the U.S. is reinstating the blockade and will now charge a 20% fee on all cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively putting a tariff on one of the world’s most important shipping routes. He also said the U.S. is “probably just going to take over the Strait,” arguing America has guarded it for 50 years without being paid, while warning Iran that the U.S. is prepared to hit them “very hard” tonight and tomorrow.

2. Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) is expected to launch a base M6 this fall, but reportedly skip the M6 Pro, M6 Max, and M6 Ultra, moving directly to M7. The M7 Ultra is designed to support up to 1.5TB of memory, roughly double the planned M5 Ultra capacity, and could help power Apple’s future AI server strategy. Apple is also already developing M8 chips with greater AI capabilities, including 2028 chips moving to a 1.4nm process. $Apple(AAPL.US) Apple hit an all-time high today.

3. TSMC $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) reported record Q2 revenue driven by AI demand. June revenue came in around $13.8B, up 6.2% MoM and 67.9% YoY. Q2 revenue was about $39.6B, up 36% YoY and above the roughly $39.4B estimate. First-half 2026 revenue reached about $75.0B.

4. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) is expanding its Richland Parish, Louisiana data center to 5GW of compute capacity, raising the announced investment to over $50B from the original $10B plan. Bloomberg reports the total site cost could exceed $250B when including chips, though Meta has only publicly disclosed $50B. Meta also plans more than $1B in local infrastructure improvements and says the site will support 1,000+ roles once operational.

5. Newly disclosed court records show Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) is suing OpenAI, alleging misappropriation of trade secrets likely stemming to a new consumer device. The Information reports OpenAI’s first consumer AI device could launch as early as February, though Apple’s lawsuit could disrupt the timeline. OpenAI has reportedly explored several hardware concepts, including a display-less smart speaker, smart glasses, a digital voice recorder, and a wearable pin.

6. Penguin Solutions $Penguin Solutions(PENG.US) announced a proposed $650M private offering of convertible senior notes due 2031. Proceeds are expected to fund capped call transactions, refinance existing notes, and repay $100M under its credit agreement as part of a broader capital structure move.

7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.6M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.0M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.6M contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 676K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 673K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 609K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 560K contracts, $DRAM with 499K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 460K contracts, and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 431K contracts.

8. Korea-focused leveraged ETF AUM peaked above $45B in June, but after the recent pullback has fallen to roughly $28B. Exposure remains heavily concentrated in a few key areas: $14B in SK Hynix-linked products, $6B in Samsung-linked products, and $8B in KOSPI 200-linked products.

9. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Rocket Lab $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) at Overweight with a $96 price target. Analyst Andres Sheppard highlighted Rocket Lab’s successful U.S. Space Force VICTUS HAZE mission, marking the first time a prime contractor completed an all-in-one Tactically Responsive Space mission covering the rocket, satellite, and on-orbit operations. The firm also called the Iridium acquisition transformative and said it further validates Rocket Lab’s move toward becoming a vertically integrated, end-to-end space company.

10. Intel $Intel(INTC.US) is investing $5.7B to expand manufacturing at its Leixlip campus in Ireland. The project will upgrade existing fabs, install new leading-edge equipment, and expand capacity for Xeon 6 and next-gen Xeon processors built on the Intel 3 node. Intel says the investment supports AI and high-performance computing demand while strengthening Europe’s semiconductor supply chain. The Leixlip site employs 4,900 people, with Intel’s total investment in Ireland now above €30B since 1989.

11. Fluence $Fluence Energy(FLNC.US) signed a contract with Avantus to supply a 200MW / 800MWh Smartstack battery system for the Rexford 2 solar-plus-storage project in Tulare County, California. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with operations targeted for late 2028, and enough capacity to power roughly 84,000 homes.

12. Bernstein says “this time is different” for memory $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US), arguing new long-term agreements offer much stronger downside protection than past semiconductor contracts. Unlike prior cycles where customers delayed orders or disputed obligations, Bernstein says today’s memory LTAs are backed by upfront collateral. The firm estimates $Sandisk(SNDK.US) has $11B+ of guarantees supporting roughly $69B of remaining obligations, while $Micron Tech(MU.US) holds $18B of deposits plus $4B of letters of credit. Bernstein also says protection is back-end weighted, with collateral coverage rising toward 75%–100% in the outer years when downcycle risk is highest. The bigger shift: counterparties are now hyperscalers and large OEMs with stronger balance sheets, while demand is tied to multi-year AI infrastructure buildouts and rising HBM/DRAM/NAND intensity. Bottom line: LTAs do not eliminate memory cyclicality, but Bernstein believes they improve earnings visibility, pricing durability, and trough protection versus prior cycles.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

reason markets are struggling right now...

- trump putting a new 20% "cargo tariff" means prices could go up, meaning inflation goes up, meaning more potential for rate hikes

- iran is proxy targeting refineries against middle eastern allies including bahrain and kuwait, not good for oil prices or general escalation

- kospi got wrecked last night -9% which is hurting the $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) SK Hynix along with the memory names in the US and if the memory names get hurt, the rest of the semis follow

the good thing is, software names $IGV $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) $Shopify (SHOP.US) $Reddit(RDDT.US) $Salesforce(CRM.US) $ServiceNow(NOW.US) $Adobe(ADBE.US) $Figma(FIG.US) $Zeta Global(ZETA.US) are getting some of the rotation so the broader breadth of the market is widening out

high-beta names in July have just not done well and it feels like this July is becoming very similar to the past 5 years, which is really just creating a month of consolidation for the most momentum driven names

Source: amit

TRUMP:

- WE ARE REINSTATING THE BLOCKADE

- WE ARE NOW CHARGING A 20% FEE ON ALL CARGO PASSED THROUGH THE HORMUZ STRAIT

so did Trump just put a tariff on all cargo passing through the Strait now 🥶

Source: amit

$Robinhood(HOOD.US)

I have covered Robinhood for the past 3 years, and it is fair to say that something really different has happened in the past 2 weeks since their Crypto event in the UK.

Why? Well...

Just over one week after launch of the Robinhood Chain:

- 17M+ transactions

- Nearly 350K total addresses

- Nearly $250M in protocol TVL

- More than $1B in DEX trading volume

And three days ago, Robinhood Chain flipped Hyperliquid in 24-hour DEX volume, according to DefiLlama:

Robinhood Chain: $433.19M

Hyperliquid: $296.23M

The implications for $Robinhood(HOOD.US) are significant and really cannot be ignored by the market.

Robinhood is evolving from a brokerage that earns from customer trading activity into a vertically integrated financial ecosystem with its own blockchain, exchange infrastructure, tokenized assets and on-chain liquidity.

This along with the Trump accounts is why I think the stock has finally decoupled from $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) and is now trading at 80% above its lows in May. Bitcoin could go up or down, the market has moved on with pegging HOOD's stock to random BTC fluctuations, because HOOD is so, so much more important than what happens with any individual coin.

If Robinhood Chain continues gaining adoption, Robinhood could capture economics from:

- Blockchain transaction fees

- DEX trading and liquidity activity

- Tokenized stocks and real-world assets (something Vlad really wants to push heavily as he sees the entire world is moving on chain)

- Stablecoin payments and settlement

- Third-party applications built on its network

- Increased customer deposits and engagement

The bigger opportunity is that Robinhood may no longer need to simply route transactions through financial infrastructure owned by other companies.

It could increasingly own the infrastructure itself...which has always been the bull case for them in crypto. It's not just about making fees off people trading coins, but owning the entire stack when it comes to the broader crypto ecosystem.

That gives Robinhood more control over the customer experience, potentially stronger margins and several new recurring revenue streams.

It is still early, and some of the initial volume may be driven by launch incentives, but Robinhood Chain is already showing that the company could become far more than a retail brokerage. The main assets being traded on it right now are meme coins, which some people may think are a joke, but to me this is showing the willingness of so many native crypto investors to accept Robinhood Chain as a legitimate platform to be able to trade on and eventually, millions of other assets with real world utility will come on chain.

$Robinhood(HOOD.US) is building toward becoming a global, crypto-native financial platform and that level of innovation and speed is what has helped the stock recover this year but is also getting the street excited for the future, diversified streams of revenue which will continue to compound earnings over the coming years.

LFG.

Source: amit

watching the $Meta Platforms(META.US) sentiment shift happen in real time is one of the best parts about this platform

the extreme bearishness that can linger for weeks/months can be mitigated within milliseconds of a company’s execution

especially when that company…

- just put a new foundation model for images/coding

- is getting into the compute business

- is growing 33% topline (seriously, WTF)

- still only trades at 18x fwd!

$700-$750 feels very possible especially when it should’ve made that move on the last earnings if it weren’t for fears around capex only being spent towards advertising revenue

having said that, most sell side is now projecting $200B+ of capex for 2027, so I’d imagine META is thinking of issuing equity like GOOGL did

if they do, stock probably takes a hit short term but it would signal the markets willingness to accept the capex in order to reward future growth

$Meta Platforms(META.US) was $670 before last earnings…Q2 coming up on July 29th

really curious how this one ends up playing out but optimistic that Zucks once again proves everyone wrong and forces the market to recognize how valuable MSL will be for 4B+ people

Source: amit

$Meta Platforms(META.US)

MARK ZUCKERBERG POSTS ON X FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 3 YEARS TO INTRODUCE THEIR NEWEST CODING MODEL.

A few thoughts:

- LLMs are literally becoming a commodity, at this point it's obvious that this is a race to the bottom but the winners still get massive leverage to use their models to sell more AI services to the enterprise/consumers

- If $Meta Platforms(META.US) can produce a model better than Claude/Codex/Grok at coding...is there a big enterprise business in coding coming for Zucks?

- If this model takes off...does the street stop punishing META for spending on capex because spending money to build a coding model means there is a reason for the spend?

The LLM arms race continues to heat up.

Source: amit

WHY ARE THE SEMIS UP THIS MORNING?

Well…a hyperscaler called $Meta Platforms(META.US) just reminded the market how much they are willing to spend on capex:

- Meta plans to double its AI computing capacity to 14GW in 2027 and begin manufacturing its in-house Iris AI chip in September, according to Reuters citing an internal memo.

- The Iris chip, part of Meta’s MTIA program, is designed with $Broadcom(AVGO.US) Broadcom and manufactured by $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) TSMC, with the goal of reducing reliance on $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Nvidia and $AMD(AMD.US) GPUs.

- Meta has also secured long-term supply agreements with Samsung (memory), $Sandisk(SNDK.US) SanDisk (flash storage), and Sumitomo Electric (fiber-optic equipment).

Once again, the market remembers how much Big Tech is willing to spend and how serious they are about creating their own custom silicon.

Trump saying that Iran wants a deal last night + META getting ready to spend even more on capex is likely why the semis are starting to recover.

Source: amit

Trump is now posting pictures and videos of the US attack on IRGC bases.

TRUMP: “If it happens again, it will get much worse!”

Looks like we have officially struck and now will have to navigate the Iranian’s response.

Source: amit

TRUMP: I THINK THE CEASEFIRE IS OVER, I DON’T WANT TO DEAL WITH IRAN ANYMORE. ILL SPEAK TO OUR NEGOTIATORS BUT AS FAR AS IM CONCERNED IT’S A WASTE OF TIME TO TALK TO THEM.

Nasdaq futures down 1%, oil up 5%

Source: amit