Iggy's Journal: The Number Everyone's Watching Isn't The Fed, It's The 10-Year

15 September 2026, Late Night

Quick one before I turn in, still adjusting to UK time. The US 10-year Treasury yield ended last week at 4.97%, just below 5%. It briefly traded above 5% on Monday, but hasn't recorded a daily close above that level since 2007. JPMorgan strategists now see a quarter point hike as likely at the Fed meeting concluding Wednesday.

What I'm Doing About It

Higher global yields can affect financing conditions here, but that's not the same as saying it moves SORA directly, SORA responds to Singapore dollar money market conditions and MAS policy settings. What I'm actually doing is watching Lendlease and Keppel DC's coverage ratios more closely this week, not because either has a new problem, but because that's the channel worth tracking if borrowing costs drift higher.

The Numbers

August core CPI rose 0.3% month on month, 0.1 point above forecast, annual core rate held at 2.4%, in line with expectations. That pushed futures to price roughly a 90% probability of a hike this week. One portfolio manager called the Fed "behind the curve," expecting yields higher regardless of Wednesday. JPMorgan's desk sees a hike as likely but stays bearish on long end Treasuries given possible reactions to the statement and Chair Warsh's press conference.

My Personal Take

The 5% level itself doesn't mean much mechanically, nothing structurally different happens crossing a round number. But markets treat round numbers as decision points anyway, and that alone can move things. I'd rather watch how Wednesday's decision gets received than react to a yield print from before it.

Cheers, Iggy 🦖