Iggy's Journal: Maybank Just Put a $13 Target on Keppel, Betting the Old Conglomerate Story Is Over
2 September 2026, AM
Analyst Rating
Maybank Research has initiated coverage on Keppel Ltd (BN4) at Buy with a S$13.00 target price. The case rests on Keppel's shift away from a traditional conglomerate model toward asset management and infrastructure operations, spanning power generation, data centres, cooling, and subsea connectivity. Maybank's thesis is that this produces more recurring, capital-light earnings than the old business mix, supported by ongoing asset recycling that frees up capital for growth.
The numbers behind the call: FY25 to FY28 earnings growth of 10% to S$1.37 billion, asset management fees rising 17%, recurring income growing at a 12% CAGR, and core ROE improving from 19% to 23%. Maybank's sum of the parts splits value 52% operating businesses, 40% asset management, the remainder non-core. Forecast dividends are 42, 45, and 49 cents for FY26E, FY27E, and FY28E. Maybank flags slower asset recycling, weaker power spreads, softer digital demand, and non renewal of concessions as the key risks. Worth repeating, these are broker forecasts, not Keppel's own guidance.
My Personal Take
The dividend forecast is the number that actually catches my eye here, not the target price. My own numbers currently have Keppel sitting in my most cautious tier purely on distribution, the trailing payout still falls well short of what I look for. Maybank's 42 cent forecast for next year would be a real step up from that. If it lands, it changes the picture. If it doesn't, the capital light story still has to prove itself in the dividend, not just in the earnings growth line.
Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.
Cheers, Iggy 🦖








