SPCX should be up 30% today.

Here’s a great example of how Wall Street discounts what Elon says. Bottom line, analysts cut the low end of his guide in half.

Last night he said they’ll exit 2027 with $500B-$1T in revenue run rate. I believe Elon implied the low was based on adding 10 GW of compute in CY27 and the high end 20 GW.

My take is there’s a 75% chance they add 10 GW, and 2% chance of 20 GW. So we should focus on the low end, or $500B in ARR exiting 2027, or $125B in Dec-27.

Before earnings, the Street was at $31B for Dec-27. He guided to $125B or 300% increase. $SpaceX(SPCX.US) is up 12% on that. It should be 30% plus today.

This morning the Street is at $50B. Since many analysts have yet to update numbers, we look at those that have made changes, and those are at around $70B, compared to the “guide” of $125B. That’s the 50% haircut.

Source: Gene Munster