Gene Munster

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Gene MunsterOct 21, 2026 at 01:36 PM

SPCX should be up 30% today.

Here’s a great example of how Wall Street discounts what Elon says. Bottom line, analysts cut the low end of his guide in half.

Last night he said they’ll exit 2027 with $500B-$1T in revenue run rate. I believe Elon implied the low was based on adding 10 GW of compute in CY27 and the high end 20 GW.

My take is there’s a 75% chance they add 10 GW, and 2% chance of 20 GW. So we should focus on the low end, or $500B in ARR exiting 2027, or $125B in Dec-27.

Before earnings, the Street was at $31B for Dec-27. He guided to $125B or 300% increase. $SpaceX(SPCX.US) is up 12% on that. It should be 30% plus today.

This morning the Street is at $50B. Since many analysts have yet to update numbers, we look at those that have made changes, and those are at around $70B, compared to the “guide” of $125B. That’s the 50% haircut.

Source: Gene Munster

Gene MunsterOct 21, 2026 at 01:06 PM

No new $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) financial metrics or guidance updates from Jensen’s GTC Berlin keynote that just wrapped.

My take: Makes sense given the October quarter ends in a week. Last night’s $SpaceX(SPCX.US) December quarter capex guide of $35-40B (street was at $19B) is a positive read-through for what we should hear from Nvidia on the earnings call in about a month.

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NVIDIA

USNVDA

Gene MunsterOct 21, 2026 at 10:26 AM

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) announces DSX Pod. Basically a mini data center in a container the size of a bus. They can be connected. Each one has cluster of Vera Rubins, connected and cooled. Little onsite assembly.

Bottom line is it speeds up the time that it takes to spin up a data center from around 4-5 months to a month. Less wasted idle compute. Makes the ROI more attractive.

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Gene MunsterOct 21, 2026 at 09:55 AM

Jensen’s Berlin keynote briefly interrupted by a protester. He handled it like a pro.

It was a small moment that captures the broader tension around AI’s impact, both in the room and around the world.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

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NVIDIA

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Gene MunsterOct 20, 2026 at 11:35 PM

Bret maintained revenue guide he gave last quarter, to exit Dec with a $100B revenue run rate.

My take: I'm surprised the stock did not go down on that comment. Shows that the investors’ head is focused on full year 2027 and beyond. $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

Source: Gene Munster

Gene MunsterOct 20, 2026 at 09:55 PM

Odds of $SpaceX(SPCX.US) + $Tesla(TSLA.US) combo just inched up.

The question came up on the call. Elon says he thinks it’s a good idea, and there are a lot of merits to combining the companies, but shareholders still have to be supportive.

Believe me, shareholders would support this.

Elon says there are special committees at request of shareholders to discuss the topic. He is a conflicted party so he can't be in the conversation.

My take: 95% chance in the next two years.

Source: Gene Munster

Tesla

USTSLA

Gene MunsterOct 20, 2026 at 09:45 PM

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) now up 4% in after hours.

I think its because Elon is so aggressive about the demand for compute. Good news for SI business. $Coreweave(CRWV.US) was up 1% going into the call. Now up 2.8%.

Source: Gene Munster

Gene MunsterOct 20, 2026 at 09:35 PM

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) will likely be raising money in next six months, my take.

They got asked the question. Bret says they're in a good place and are currently talking to debt providers.

Have operating cash flows.

Have an investment grade and a balance sheet which opens they up to debt.

Can get vendor financing.

Source: Gene Munster

SpaceX

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Gene MunsterOct 20, 2026 at 09:25 PM

Elon says in 3-5 years demand for bandwidth will be 1,000x what it is today.

Requires order of magnitude increase in communication bandwidth. $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

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SpaceX

USSPCX

Gene MunsterOct 20, 2026 at 09:25 PM

Huge guide up in Capex. CFO Bret Johnsen says Dec quarter Capex of $35-$40B.

Street was at $19B.

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) went up on the comment. Now up 5.2%. Was up 4% before the Capex comment.

My take: Smart move. They have the demand. Also, good news for the AI trade that we are still early.

Source: Gene Munster

Gene MunsterOct 20, 2026 at 09:15 PM

Starlink mobile:

Head of IR Andrea Williams says Starlink mobile will be a major mobile carrier in the US, which is similar to a comment Elon made a couple of weeks ago.

$AT & T(T.US) down 1% after hours. $AT & T(T.US)MUS up 0.2%.

My take: The company has a pig-like appetite to go after large markets. $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

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Gene MunsterOct 20, 2026 at 08:55 PM

Elon says Grok Bot may over time use most of SpaceX compute. In other words, Grok Bot growth will be over the top.

My take: Today there are only about 15m daily personalized bots world wide. Most Muse. My guess is 5m Grok Bot. I expect 50m daily Grok Bot users in 6 months. $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

Source: Gene Munster

SpaceX

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Gene MunsterOct 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM

New episode of Fathom: $Apple(AAPL.US)

It's about generational tech companies, not the daily noise. Episode 1 goes back to the company I know best: Apple. What made it great, and what it needs to do to stay great for the next 20 years.

With @dougclinton

Fathom E1: Apple

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Apple

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Gene MunsterOct 18, 2026 at 09:25 PM

Duo still showing Jan 25 delivery date, unchanged since one hour into preorders Friday morning.

I would expect sometime this week they take a step back to early January.

Feels like on Friday they artificially jumped them to late January to set expectations low.

Any lead times after Dec 1 suggest we are off to a good start, even with the limited production.

Source: Gene Munster

Gene MunsterOct 18, 2026 at 08:35 PM

Grok is taking over my phone usage.

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) apps were 50% of my screen time last week. Lots of X (but a lot of that is Grok) plus Grok and Grok Bot.

The point is that SpaceX could make a phone optimized for Grok at the OS layer that would beat the iPhone for 50%+ of my phone usage. $Apple(AAPL.US)

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Apple

USAAPL

Gene MunsterOct 16, 2026 at 02:25 AM

The Roadster event is the latest example of why Elon can’t wait to bring $Tesla(TSLA.US) and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) together.

Elon says the new Roadster is a mashup of the two tech teams.

The car’s goal is to break the laws of physics: 0-60 in one second, suck the road for high-G cornering, and 10 thrusters that cause the car to flip. It’s a ridiculous display of engineering.

Source: Gene Munster

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Gene MunsterOct 16, 2026 at 01:45 AM

Two takeaways from tonight’s Roadster event.

1. It was an engineering flex with no commercial value beyond embarrassing traditional car makers.

2. Elon can’t wait to bring $Tesla(TSLA.US) and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) together.

Source: Gene Munster

Tesla

USTSLA

Gene MunsterOct 15, 2026 at 12:55 PM

$Apple(AAPL.US) gets test approval for AI powered Siri in China. This is a big step forward. I expected this milestone mid 2027.

Now the question is when will it move from testing to general availability. My guess is the first half of 2027.

Keep in mind, testing doesn’t mean general availability. Just over a year ago, Tesla got “approval for testing” on FSD in China, and so far it’s been crickets on that front

Source: Gene Munster

Apple

USAAPL

Gene MunsterOct 12, 2026 at 06:45 PM

Once you've used these personalized bots (Muse, Grok Bot, Dot) the thought of going back to a life without them is painful.

This means the transition from the subsidy phase of AI to the paying phase will be smooth, because once it becomes core to our lives, monetization will appear. Just look at Search.

That reality helps explain why $Meta Platforms(META.US) is up 4% today, Nasdaq down 2% on the new Muse Wonder Bot model that they will charge $20 or $100 a month.

Source: Gene Munster

Meta Platforms

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Gene MunsterOct 8, 2026 at 04:15 PM

Looking past the market noise today, AI trade fundamentals remain solid.

Early this morning $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) reported Sep qtr revenue +51% y/y, and growth keeps accelerating:

Dec-25: +21%

Mar-26: +35%

Jun-26: +36%

Sep-26: +51%

Even with TSM down 1.5% today vs Nasdaq down 0.6%, they’re up 6% over the past month vs Nasdaq up 3.5%

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Gene MunsterOct 5, 2026 at 03:45 PM

We’re still early in the AI buildout.

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Gene MunsterOct 2, 2026 at 05:45 PM

Let’s Set Aside the Pleasantries, Tesla Is Going to Crush Traditional Automakers. $Tesla(TSLA.US)

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Gene MunsterOct 2, 2026 at 05:15 PM

One well-paying job I would never want: chair of a traditional automaker. $Tesla(TSLA.US)

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Tesla

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Gene MunsterOct 1, 2026 at 08:55 PM

Tesla Deliveries land tomorrow a.m.: The EV Winter Thaws

• For the Sep quarter, the Street is looking for 461k, down 7% y/y.

• I’m looking for 497k, which would be flat y/y.

• The Street’s looking for a decline because of the tough comp from the US EV tax credit sunset last September.

• The broader EV commentary has turned more cautious recently, with sales of GM EVs down around 70% y/y.

• I believe the opposite is happening, that we’re exiting the EV winter that started three years ago. Tesla demand is stronger than expected based on a combination of continued high gas prices and the word slowly getting out that FSD is the real deal.

• U.S. extended lead times point to stronger demand. I estimate about 40% of deliveries are in the U.S. Since last fall, Model Y and Model 3 lead times have essentially doubled, going from around 5-6 weeks to about 10 weeks. That’s an average across all trims. $Tesla(TSLA.US)

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Tesla

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