Gene Munster

Elon suggests EV winter is ending.

Goal is 5m vehicles per year starting in 2030.

They'll do around 2m in CY26. Implies 25% compound growth through 2030. $Tesla(TSLA.US)

Source: Gene Munster

Elon says demand for vehicles is exceeding production by a large margin and they're ramping production.

FSD is the selling point.

My take: I agree FSD is now part of the conversation for many new car buyers, but not the majority. In a few years, it will be the majority. $Tesla(TSLA.US)

Source: Gene Munster

Even though there are only around 10m daily Muse users (my estimate), the product is losing a lot of money, more than any other products they've launched. Reading between the lines.

Zuckerberg says not to worry, the math will work to build out compute to get to scale to get the take rate on commerce. $Meta Platforms(META.US)

Source: Gene Munster

$Meta Platforms(META.US) CFO Susan Li says they're not giving detailed guidance for 2027, but to expect "strong" growth.

Street is currently looking for 21% growth, vs. 27% in 2027.

I would consider 25% "strong".

Source: Gene Munster

Elon says in one year to 20k Optimus units per week. I would guess he is talking about exiting run rate at the end of 2027.

That implies about 1m in 2028.

My take: The Optimus conversation is still considered optionality for most investors. That call option that has massive value. $Tesla(TSLA.US).

Source: Gene Munster

Zuck reminds investors that Muse (combo of models and agents) will become the center of $Meta Platforms(META.US)'s universe.

My take: In three years, Muse will become the lens consumers engage with Instagram, FB, Whats App, Reels.

Source: Gene Munster

SPCX should be up 30% today.

Here’s a great example of how Wall Street discounts what Elon says. Bottom line, analysts cut the low end of his guide in half.

Last night he said they’ll exit 2027 with $500B-$1T in revenue run rate. I believe Elon implied the low was based on adding 10 GW of compute in CY27 and the high end 20 GW.

My take is there’s a 75% chance they add 10 GW, and 2% chance of 20 GW. So we should focus on the low end, or $500B in ARR exiting 2027, or $125B in Dec-27.

Before earnings, the Street was at $31B for Dec-27. He guided to $125B or 300% increase. $SpaceX(SPCX.US) is up 12% on that. It should be 30% plus today.

This morning the Street is at $50B. Since many analysts have yet to update numbers, we look at those that have made changes, and those are at around $70B, compared to the “guide” of $125B. That’s the 50% haircut.

Source: Gene Munster

No new $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) financial metrics or guidance updates from Jensen’s GTC Berlin keynote that just wrapped.

My take: Makes sense given the October quarter ends in a week. Last night’s $SpaceX(SPCX.US) December quarter capex guide of $35-40B (street was at $19B) is a positive read-through for what we should hear from Nvidia on the earnings call in about a month.

Source: Gene Munster

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) announces DSX Pod. Basically a mini data center in a container the size of a bus. They can be connected. Each one has cluster of Vera Rubins, connected and cooled. Little onsite assembly.

Bottom line is it speeds up the time that it takes to spin up a data center from around 4-5 months to a month. Less wasted idle compute. Makes the ROI more attractive.

Source: Gene Munster

Jensen’s Berlin keynote briefly interrupted by a protester. He handled it like a pro.

It was a small moment that captures the broader tension around AI’s impact, both in the room and around the world.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Source: Gene Munster

Bret maintained revenue guide he gave last quarter, to exit Dec with a $100B revenue run rate.

My take: I'm surprised the stock did not go down on that comment. Shows that the investors’ head is focused on full year 2027 and beyond. $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

Source: Gene Munster

Odds of $SpaceX(SPCX.US) + $Tesla(TSLA.US) combo just inched up.

The question came up on the call. Elon says he thinks it’s a good idea, and there are a lot of merits to combining the companies, but shareholders still have to be supportive.

Believe me, shareholders would support this.

Elon says there are special committees at request of shareholders to discuss the topic. He is a conflicted party so he can't be in the conversation.

My take: 95% chance in the next two years.

Source: Gene Munster

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) now up 4% in after hours.

I think its because Elon is so aggressive about the demand for compute. Good news for SI business. $Coreweave(CRWV.US) was up 1% going into the call. Now up 2.8%.

Source: Gene Munster

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) will likely be raising money in next six months, my take.

They got asked the question. Bret says they're in a good place and are currently talking to debt providers.

Have operating cash flows.

Have an investment grade and a balance sheet which opens they up to debt.

Can get vendor financing.

Source: Gene Munster

Elon says in 3-5 years demand for bandwidth will be 1,000x what it is today.

Requires order of magnitude increase in communication bandwidth. $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

Source: Gene Munster

Huge guide up in Capex. CFO Bret Johnsen says Dec quarter Capex of $35-$40B.

Street was at $19B.

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) went up on the comment. Now up 5.2%. Was up 4% before the Capex comment.

My take: Smart move. They have the demand. Also, good news for the AI trade that we are still early.

Source: Gene Munster

Starlink mobile:

Head of IR Andrea Williams says Starlink mobile will be a major mobile carrier in the US, which is similar to a comment Elon made a couple of weeks ago.

$AT & T(T.US) down 1% after hours. $AT & T(T.US)MUS up 0.2%.

My take: The company has a pig-like appetite to go after large markets. $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

Source: Gene Munster

Elon says Grok Bot may over time use most of SpaceX compute. In other words, Grok Bot growth will be over the top.

My take: Today there are only about 15m daily personalized bots world wide. Most Muse. My guess is 5m Grok Bot. I expect 50m daily Grok Bot users in 6 months. $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

Source: Gene Munster

New episode of Fathom: $Apple(AAPL.US)

It's about generational tech companies, not the daily noise. Episode 1 goes back to the company I know best: Apple. What made it great, and what it needs to do to stay great for the next 20 years.

With @dougclinton

Fathom E1: Apple

Source: Gene Munster

Duo still showing Jan 25 delivery date, unchanged since one hour into preorders Friday morning.

I would expect sometime this week they take a step back to early January.

Feels like on Friday they artificially jumped them to late January to set expectations low.

Any lead times after Dec 1 suggest we are off to a good start, even with the limited production.

Source: Gene Munster

Grok is taking over my phone usage.

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) apps were 50% of my screen time last week. Lots of X (but a lot of that is Grok) plus Grok and Grok Bot.

The point is that SpaceX could make a phone optimized for Grok at the OS layer that would beat the iPhone for 50%+ of my phone usage. $Apple(AAPL.US)

Source: Gene Munster

The Roadster event is the latest example of why Elon can’t wait to bring $Tesla(TSLA.US) and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) together.

Elon says the new Roadster is a mashup of the two tech teams.

The car’s goal is to break the laws of physics: 0-60 in one second, suck the road for high-G cornering, and 10 thrusters that cause the car to flip. It’s a ridiculous display of engineering.

Source: Gene Munster

Two takeaways from tonight’s Roadster event.

1. It was an engineering flex with no commercial value beyond embarrassing traditional car makers.

2. Elon can’t wait to bring $Tesla(TSLA.US) and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) together.

Source: Gene Munster

$Apple(AAPL.US) gets test approval for AI powered Siri in China. This is a big step forward. I expected this milestone mid 2027.

Now the question is when will it move from testing to general availability. My guess is the first half of 2027.

Keep in mind, testing doesn’t mean general availability. Just over a year ago, Tesla got “approval for testing” on FSD in China, and so far it’s been crickets on that front

Source: Gene Munster