Today’s Key News Recap
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TSM Rev. improving, margins slightly pressured; AAPL China AI to launch in Dec. |Daily News Recap

1015 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) US Sep CPI rose 3.7% YoY and core CPI rose 2.6% YoY, both beating estimates. Market-implied odds of an Oct hike briefly hit 50%, the USD touched an 18‑month high, and UST yields moved higher.

Sticky inflation undermined the 'pause' narrative. Waller's remarks before this week's Fed blackout are pivotal, with the probability of a Dec hike also reinforced. Valuation-sensitive growth stocks were first in the firing line...

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GOOGL's Gemini 4 Argon enters at a low price; ASML earnings steady but guidance cautious | Daily News Recap

1014 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) US Sep CPI due at 20:30 Beijing time; consensus sees headline CPI at +3.6% YoY and +0.6% MoM, core CPI at +2.5% YoY and +0.2% MoM. It is a key inflation read ahead of the Fed's Oct rate decision. The print will directly drive UST yields and US tech valuations.

2) China's NBS released Sep domestic price data. CPI +0.9% YoY, +0.2% MoM...

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Semis sentiment cools, memory leads declines; META unveils Muse Wonder, racing ahead in AI apps | Daily News Recap

1013 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry. 1) Following a post-holiday catch-down in Korea, the early termination of the largest-ever share buybacks by Samsung and SK Hynix (~$40bn), and CXMT’s 4F² architecture breakthrough, memory names fell for consecutive sessions. WDC and MU both sold off sharply.

The aborted buybacks weakened expectations for a sector floor, while domestic memory breakthroughs add supply-side noise. Coupled with rising expectations that cloud vendors will in-source compute, these twin headwinds are suppressing risk appetite across semis. Near-term sentiment remains under pressure.

2) The Ministry of Finance announced a change to VAT export rebates for NEVs. Starting Apr 1 next year, the rate will be cut to 9% from 13%...

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Overseas LLM price war hits China AI names; NVDA RTX Spark opens pre-orders | Daily News Recap

1008 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) HK-listed LLM names weakened across the board today. The overseas LLM space kicked off a new round of price cuts.

Anthropic launched next-gen Haiku 5.5 and lowered inference costs, while OpenAI introduced lower-priced GPT-6 Sol and Luna, with Luna API pricing 50% below the prior GPT-5.6 series. The market worries that as frontier models keep improving and API prices fall rapidly...

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MRVL outlook ignites rally; SpaceX plans to borrow $40bn to bulk-buy NVDA | Daily News Recap

Oct 7 | Dolphin Research Focus: Macro/Industry — the 10Y UST yield hit 5.3%, the highest intraday level since 2002. European bonds sold off in tandem, with France at the center of the storm. Long-end yields pushed to new highs globally while the S&P 500 hovered near record highs, underscoring a sharp stock-bond divergence.

Ray Dalio warned the U.S. debt cycle is nearing its limit, with earnings (not multiple expansion) propping up equities for now. If rates keep rising, high-valuation tech would be first in the firing line. Single stocks — $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) at its Investor Day...

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Zhipu GLM-5.3 goes global on AWS; GOOGL to invest $1bn in nuclear to bolster compute capacity|Daily News Recap

1006 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry. The Houthis claimed three waves of large-scale strikes on Saudi territory, targeting Riyadh's King Khalid Intl Airport and Aramco's Rabigh refinery.

Harassment along the Bab el-Mandeb strait has intensified, stoking concerns the conflict could shift from long-range strikes to physical control. Saudi Aramco's CEO warned global oil inventories are 'thin to a frightening degree', and even if hostilities ease, restocking could take two years.

Red Sea shipping insurance costs are rising, so the $100 oil risk remains. Middle East supply risk has picked up again. If Saudi core oil and gas facilities suffer material damage, oil prices would move up rapidly...

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USTs flash warning; stocks under pressure; GOOGL's flagship AI model Gemini 4 nears launch | Daily News Recap

0924 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industries. UST yields jumped as U.S. PMI beat, the 5Y auction drew weak demand, and elevated oil stoked inflation jitters.

The 5Y UST yield topped 5% for the first time since 2007, while the 10Y moved sharply higher. Markets raised the implied odds of another rate hike in Oct.

With the global pricing anchor shifting up, Asia-Pac and Hong Kong equities softened alongside offshore risk sentiment. Markets are trading the 'higher for longer' theme, and Hong Kong, U.S., and A-shares fell in tandem...

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Meta Connect: Waiting on fresh Muse signals; QCOM rolls out two flagship chips | Daily News Recap

Sep 23 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry — 1) OpenAI and Anthropic roll out budget models, kicking off an AI price war. Anthropic released Claude Opus 5.5 with costs down 40% and speed up 30%.

OpenAI launched GPT-6 Sol and Luna, with API pricing 50% lower vs. GPT-5.6. The cuts are driven by Chinese open-weight models grabbing share, pushing frontier models to compete on price-to-performance. This favors the app layer and developers but adds to the giants' cash-burn pressure...

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META Muse Tops Charts, Lifts AI Agent Trade; Tencent Rallies on AI | Daily News Recap

Sep 22 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Stock 1: $Meta Platforms(META.US). Meta jumped over 11% in the last session, its largest one-day gain since Apr 2025.

Its personal AI assistant 'Muse' topped the US iPhone free chart and also the Google Play free chart. It garnered over 902k downloads within six days of launch.

The breakout of consumer AI agent products like Muse is lifting expectations for server CPU demand. The market is seeing a hit on the consumer side, signaling AI apps are shifting from model races to real user adoption.

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Jensen Huang touts a 'double boost' in chips; SK hynix and Solidigm plan a US NAND fab | Daily News Recap

0918 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) Saudi Arabia, via Oman, proposed a two-week ceasefire to the Houthi, sending crude lower again as WTI briefly slipped below $100 and Brent fell over 4% intraday. Cooling geopolitics eased energy and inflation fears.

This backdrop supported the post-hike U.S. equity rebound. If the truce breaks or Iran risk escalates, an oil rebound would again weigh on risk appetite and constrain the Fed's room to cut.

🐬 Single Stocks 1) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) Jensen Huang said next year's chip shipments will be twice this year's. Nvidia expects revenue of approx $673 bn for the fiscal year ending Jan 2028...

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