UST 10Y spikes to 5%, hammers markets; AAPL rolls out Siri AI public beta | Daily News Recap

0915｜Dolphin Focus:

🐬 Macro/Industry

1. The US 10Y UST yield briefly topped 5% overnight, the highest since 2007, before easing. The long end crossing a key threshold signals rising concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation.A higher-for-longer rate backdrop compresses growth stock multiples globally and keeps pressure on HK/US tech. Risk appetite is likely to contract further.

2. China's MIIT and NDRC issued the '15th Five-Year Plan' for electronic information manufacturing, targeting RMB 30 tn revenue by 2030 and R&D intensity of 3.5%. The plan prioritizes full-stack IC R&D, and breakthroughs in advanced packaging, EDA and wide-bandgap semis.HK-listed chip, memory, PCB and optical-comm names rallied, with Tianshu Zhixin, GigaDevice and SMIC up. Sentiment should get a short-term boost, but industrialization takes time, so the move looks like policy-driven re-rating.

3. NBS reported Aug social retail sales at RMB 3,982.4 bn, up 0.4% YoY. The weak print underscores a soft consumption recovery, with domestic demand lagging bullish expectations.Discretionary lacks near-term fundamental catalysts; the consumption trade will likely stay selective. Focus on staples and policy-supported segments.

🐬 Stocks

1.$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Microsoft released a 37-page draft 'Humanistic AI Code of Conduct' stating 'Humans over AI', banning weaponization, hazardous materials and violent sexual content, and prohibiting models from setting their own goals or hiding reasoning. A six-week consultation will run, with revisions by year-end, and from 2027 the code will guide MAI in-house models.Big Tech moving first to build internal AI safety frameworks is a landmark step for global AI governance. Long term it reduces compliance risk, but near term it lifts model R&D costs and will constrain iteration pace.

2.$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Netflix struck a multi-IP adaptation deal with Sega to develop live-action films based on 'Crazy Taxi' and '天堂陌客', plus a new Sonic animation. The project will be advanced by the team behind 'Sonic the Hedgehog', signaling platform-scale monetization of game IP.Sega has a deep classic IP library, which helps Netflix expand its content slate. However, IP adaptations have long lead times, limiting near-term P&L impact and serving more as thematic catalysts.

3.$Oracle(ORCL.US)

Oracle plans to cut ~21k employees in FY2026 (-13%), and started a new round of double-digit percentage layoffs in Sep with an additional $700 mn restructuring charge. AI infra capex is aggressive (Q1 CAPEX $28.5 bn).Founder Larry Ellison canceled the 10b5-1 plan set in Jun, which corresponded to over $7.5 bn of potential sales, but he has not actually sold shares. Cost cuts and debt-funded AI data centers strain leverage and FCF; canceling the planned sell-down eases sentiment, but watch AI cloud bookings conversion and GPM.

4.$Tesla(TSLA.US)

Elon Musk confirmed the next-gen Roadster will be unveiled on Oct 1 ET near SpaceX/McGregor in Texas, potentially showcasing a SpaceX cold-gas thruster option. As Tesla’s flagship, Roadster is a tech showpiece with limited near-term volume contribution.The thruster concept is highly topical and can boost Tesla’s tech narrative. That said, commercialization and mass production remain uncertain.

5.$Apple(AAPL.US)

Apple rolled out iOS 27, alongside macOS 27, watchOS 27, iPadOS 27 and visionOS 27. The key highlight is Siri AI entering public testing after being announced in Jun but delayed until now.The real-world Siri AI experience will directly shape market confidence. It is the key checkpoint for Apple’s AI delivery.

🐬 Top Gainers

A-shares: Industrial gases, semi materials & equipment, diversified chemicals;

HK: Security & alarm services, insurance brokers, household cleaning products;

US: Video games & multimedia, home appliances, IT consulting.

🐬 What to Watch Tomorrow

1) Trip.com Group earnings;

2) US Aug import price index (MoM), US Aug retail sales (MoM), US Jul business inventories (MoM).

Risk disclosure and statement: Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure