Many $Tesla(TSLA.US) retail investors continue to make three common mistakes:
1/ Loving the company doesn’t mean you should love the stock.2/ Valuation matters. A stock at 220x forward earnings and growing at 35%/year is way more expensive than one at 20x earnings and growing at +15%/year. 3/ Don’t rely on management’s promises for your research. Do a 360 degree research review before investing: Customers, competitors, suppliers, company itself.Contrary to what some on X think, I don’t hate TSLA. I like the company’s core businesses (EVs, autonomy). As I’ve said since we exited TSLA in May 2025, I don’t like the valuation of the stock.
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After most $Tesla(TSLA.US) events, TSLA stock sells off the next day, because expectations before the event run too high and the actual deliverables don’t match the hype. So far, the Cybercab event tonight (which is actually the second Cybercab launch; the first was October 10, 2024, at Warner Bros. Studios in Burbank, California) is following the same script, with $Tesla(TSLA.US) +17% over the past month vs NDX flat.
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U.S. stocks were slightly lower as oil and 10yr treasury yields ticked higher. Gold, silver and bitcoin rose, and chip names were mixed. $Broadcom(AVGO.US) slipped after slight miss in revenue guidance. U.S.-Iran strikes continued with no resolution in sight. Traders priced a 62% chance of a Sept. Fed hike, although I don’t see it given slowing job growth and temporary nature of oil supply shock. S&P 500 2026 EPS estimates have continued to climb on AI and energy sector gains. S&P 500 forward earnings yield remains below 10-year treasury yield (no equity risk premium; normal +50-100 bp premium). Tesla’s Austin Cybercab event is today; I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) shares amid negative TSLA long term earnings revisions, unsupervised autonomy being commoditized, and an extended valuation.
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$Broadcom(AVGO.US) -7% AH after 3Q results beat ests but 4Q rev guidance fell slightly short of analysts’ expectations ($34.8B vs $35.0B est). Importantly, 3Q AI rev of $16.7B beat 3Q ests of $15.9B and 4Q AI Rev guidance (which caused $Broadcom(AVGO.US) stock to decline -12% after 2Q results) came in above expectations ($21.7B vs $21.3b est). As the AI Rev strength becomes clearer to investors I expect the stock to recover somewhat.
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Never short a great company that sells at an expensive valuation. $Tesla(TSLA.US) is a great company with best-in-class technology, leverages key secular megatrends that generate true first movers’ advantage, has a significant manufacturing cost advantage, and is run by a visionary leader who is a magnet for engineering talent. But TSLA trades at an extended valuation (220x forward earnings vs +35% long-term earnings growth), which gives investors reason to not own it, but not a reason to short it.
There are plenty of bad companies that have weak products or competitive positions, can’t leverage key secular megatrends, have non-compelling brands, a high cost manufacturing structure, or management teams that can’t execute that I can short instead.G
$Dell Tech(DELL.US) +10% AH after significantly beating 2Q ests and boosting FY’27 Rev guidance by +15% and FY’27 EPS guidance by +42% behind the strength of AI servers demand.
2Q actuals:- Net revs $46.97B vs $44.95B est- AI servers rev $16.4B vs $16.0B est- Adj Gross margin 21.1% vs 17.4% est- Adj EPS $7.04 vs $4.90 est- Net revs +58% YoY vs +50% est3Q guidance:- Net revs $49B vs $41.9B est- Adj EPS $6.40-$6.60 vs $4.55 estFY’27 guidance:- Net revs $192B vs $165-169B prior (+15%) and vs $173.8B est - Adj EPS $25.50 at midpoint vs $17.90 at midpoint prior (+42%) and vs $19.10 estConf call 430pm ET
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U.S. stocks fell pre-market (SPX -0.4%, NDX -0.7%) as global bond yields hit nearly two-decade highs, oil rose on renewed US-Iran tensions, and odds of a Fed hike in Sept jumped to 62% after Chairman Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks. Brent reached $92/bbl, the 10-year treasury yield increased to 4.78%; chip stocks declined, and $Tesla(TSLA.US) fell ahead of Thursday’s Austin Cybercab launch (45 unsupervised autonomous vehicles as of yesterday). S&P 2026 EPS estimates have continued to climb to $364 (+31% y/y), implying a 2026 P/E of 21.1x and a 4.7% earnings yield which is below 10yr Treasuries for the first time since early 2024 and before that the Internet bubble of 2000. I am skeptical about a pre-midterm Fed rate hike given slowing job growth and the seeming temporary nature of the Brent crude supply shock. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) amid falling long-term earnings estimates, the ongoing commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a 220x 2026 P/E versus +35% long-term earnings growth implying a 6.3x PEG, by far the highest among the Mag 8.
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US stocks mixed pre-market after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech lifted September rate hike odds to 62%. I am skeptical the Fed will move in September given slowing jobs and stable inflation. Brent rose 2% on renewed US-Iran strikes. 2- and 10-yr treasury yields eased, #BTC dipped but is +21% in August. Chip stocks were mixed (NVDA +0.5%). 2026 S&P EPS are now up +31% y/y to $346 on AI and energy sector gains, putting the S&P 500 2026 P/E at 21.2x, matching the 10-year yield. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) amid falling long-term estimates, the ongoing commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and a 210x 2026 P/E versus +35% long-term earnings growth implying a 6x PEG, by far the highest among the Mag 8.
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Tech stocks moved sharply higher (SPX +0.4%, NDX +1.0%) after $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) forecasted +70% 2028 revenue growth versus +45% expected, easing AI spending slowdown fears amid accelerating demand by NVDA consumers. Oil extended recent declines on possible Hormuz reopening talks; treasury yields edged up ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow morning. Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $79.8K and is now +23% in August. Other chip stocks rose and $Salesforce(CRM.US) advanced +11% higher pre-mkt following its own strong outlook. S&P 2026 earnings ests of $346 (+31% y/y) are likely to move higher following NVDA’s blowout guidance. The current forward S&P 500 earnings yield of 4.7% equals the current 10-year treasury yield for the first time since early 2024 and before that the internet bubble of 2000. The normal S&P 500 equity risk premium over 10-year treasury yields is +50-100 bp.
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U.S. equities were flat pre-market ahead of $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) earnings, July PCE data, and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Oil fell further on Iran-Oman Hormuz re-opening talks; treasury yields edged higher while BTC rose. Chip stocks mixed; $Meta Platforms(META.US) gained on state AG settlement talks, TSLA slightly lower after a Cybertruck price hike. S&P 2026 EPS estimates continue to climb (+31% y/y to $346) on AI investment, bringing the forward E/P in line with the 10-year treasury yield (vs normal equity premium +50-100bp). I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining forward earnings estimates, commoditization of unsupervised autonomy, and extreme valuation.
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This would be positive to $Meta Platforms(META.US) stock if there is a settlement with the state attorney generals even if several billions of dollars. Investors would treat it as a one-time non-recurring event.
Meta, States Have Discussed Settling Teen Social Media Harm Case By Olivia Carville and Madlin Mekelburg08/25/2026 20:22:22(Bloomberg) ▪Meta Platforms Inc. and state attorneys general have discussed a possible mid-trial settlement of a case accusing the company of deliberately designing Facebook and Instagram to addict teens.▪The trial poses an enormous risk for Meta as 29 states are seeking financial penalties and mandatory changes to how the platforms operate.▪A loss at trial could result in penalties of as much as $1.4 trillion, according to Meta's own calculations, while a settlement would likely amount to a far smaller sum.Meta Platforms Inc. and state attorneys general have discussed a possible mid-trial settlement of a blockbuster case accusing the company of deliberately designing Facebook and Instagram to addict teens, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified due to its sensitivity.The trial, now in its second week in federal court in Oakland, California, poses an enormous risk for Meta as the top legal officers of 29 states are seeking both massive financial penalties on behalf of the public and mandatory changes to how the platforms operate.A spokesperson for Meta had no immediate comment. A representative of the attorney general’s office in California declined to comment. Representatives of the other three states leading the case, Colorado, Kentucky and New Jersey, didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.The states have alleged violations of state consumer protection and federal privacy laws — which carry fines that add up quickly when multiplied by millions of young Instagram and Facebook users.Meta has denied the states’ allegations and accused the attorneys general of seeking unreasonable design changes and an “outlandish payout.”By Meta’s own calculations, a loss at trial could saddle it with penalties of as much as $1.4 trillion, an amount close to its market capitalization and unheard of in the annals of legal history. A settlement would likely amount to a far smaller sum.Lawyers have said they expect to call Meta founder and chief executive officer Mark Zuckerberg to testify.The case is People of the State of California v. Meta Platforms Inc., 23-cv-05448, US District Court, Northern District of California (Oakland).
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U.S. equities rose pre-market ahead of NVDA earnings, July PCE data, and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech amid inflation concerns and stubbornly high long-dated Treasury yields. Brent crude fell, while BTC gained; gold and silver declined. Chip stocks rebounded on AI optimism in front of the $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) print; $Meta Platforms(META.US) and $Tesla(TSLA.US) both advanced. TSLA raised Cybertruck prices. S&P 2026 EPS estimates continued to climb on AI and energy strength, pushing P/E to 21.0x and a forward earnings yield of 4.7%, matching the 10-year yield for the first time since early 2024. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining 2027-30 earnings estimates, the commoditization of unsupervised autonomous driving technology, and an extreme valuation (6x PEG, highest by far among Mag 8 stocks).
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I expect $Meta Platforms(META.US) to continue to underperform the S&P 500 near-term as the outcome of a $1 trillion trial in Northern CA overhangs the stock. Like tobacco litigation 30 years ago, $Meta Platforms(META.US) is being sued by California and a multi-state coalition of attorneys general who have argued that $Meta Platforms(META.US) designed Facebook and Instagram to be addictive to children and teens, improperly collected their data, and misled the public about the platforms' safety. The trial in federal court in Oakland before U.S. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers who was appointed by Barack Obama is likely to overhang the stock until the advisory jury renders a verdict in October. The advisory jury is hearing the evidence and issues a verdict; the judge is the ultimate decision-maker on liability, penalties, and remedies. On appeal, the case would go to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which is widely viewed as one of the more liberal circuits in the U.S. federal court system.
In the spring, Meta (along with $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) ‘s YouTube) lost a landmark social media case in California, in which a jury found the companies liable for harming a young user with certain design features in their apps and awarded her $6 million. Then, earlier this month, $Meta Platforms(META.US) was ordered to pay more than $940 million in the state of New Mexico for being a public nuisance and causing psychological harm to children. In the current state AG case in Oakland the plaintiffs are asking for compensatory and punitive damages which could total $1.4 trillion, essentially equal to META’s market cap.While $Meta Platforms(META.US) remains cheap at 15.6x 2026 Adj EPS vs +15% long-term EPS growth, the potential for a trillion dollar initial judgment and an unfavorable appellate process before the liberal Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals could overhang the stock just like tobacco litigation impacted tobacco stocks for years until investors realized the tobacco companies could price future ligation costs into each pack of cigarettes and addicted smokers would pay it. Unlike tobacco stocks there is no pricing mechanism that $Meta Platforms(META.US) can use to offset the risk of litigation. $Meta Platforms(META.US) could settle this case for a few hundred billion dollars and the stock could rise but other litigation will surely follow.
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Here’s a profile by CNBC of U.S. District Judge Yvonne Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers, who is presiding over the $Meta Platforms(META.US) trial in Oakland, CA where a group of state attorney generals seek up to $1.4 trillion in damages.
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$Tesla(TSLA.US) remains the worst YTD performer (-20%) of all Mag 8 stocks, with only $Meta Platforms(META.US) (-15% YTD) which is facing an existential threat to its core business given a $1.4 trillion consumer liability trial that got underway this week also in the red. NDX overall is up +16% YTD, fueled by $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) (+16%), $Apple(AAPL.US) (+15%.), and $Amazon(AMZN.US) (+12%). TSLA’s troubles are due to lower than expected auto gross margins in its core EV business and a slower than expected scale up of its unsupervised autonomy efforts due to efficacy and safety concerns/an abundance of caution.
Like tobacco litigation 30 years ago, $Meta Platforms(META.US) is being sued by California and a multi-state coalition of attorneys general who have argued that $Meta Platforms(META.US) designed Facebook and Instagram to be addictive to children and teens, improperly collected their data, and misled the public about the platforms' safety. The trial in federal court in Oakland before U.S. Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers who was appointed by Barack Obama is likely to overhang the stock until the advisory jury renders a verdict in October. The advisory jury is hearing the evidence and issues a verdict; the judge is the ultimate decision-maker on liability, penalties, and remedies. On appeal, the case would go to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which is widely viewed as one of the more liberal circuits in the U.S. federal court system. In the spring, Meta (along with $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) ‘s YouTube) lost a landmark social media case in California, in which a jury found the companies liable for harming a young user with certain design features in their apps and awarded her $6 million. Then, earlier this month, $Meta Platforms(META.US) was ordered to pay more than $940 million in the state of New Mexico for being a public nuisance and causing psychological harm to children. In the current state AG case in Oakland the plaintiffs are asking for compensatory and punitive damages which could total $1.4 trillion, essentially equal to META’s market cap.G
Bitcoin continued its rally on Friday (+7%) putting the token on track for its best weekly gain (+22%) in more than three years. The surge started earlier this week after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the U.S. government would double the size of its purchase of longer-dated Treasuries from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. While minuscule compared to typical Fed-led QE programs which normally amount to multi-trillion-dollar buy programs, the Treasury action represents an important signal that the Administration is intent on coordinating policy to stop the rise in long dated treasury yields which remain near their highest levels since 2007.
I would fade the bitcoin rally since this is not QE and the Treasury intervention ($2 billion) is tiny compared to Fed-driven QE buy programs where the Fed literally prints money to buy treasuries. This isn’t that. Some argue Trump/Bessent will convince Fed chair Warsh to join in their campaign to reduce long-term rates but as in Trump’s battle to get Warsh to cut short-term rates, there is no crisis that warrants new QE (e.g. the last QE program by the Fed was Covid in 2020, which totaled $4-5 trillion). Warsh would lose huge credibility in their efforts to reduce inflation to 2% if the Fed were seen as following Trump’s directive in trying to bring down long-term rates.G
Huge disconnect between $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls’ over-the-top autonomy expectations and $Tesla(TSLA.US) stock price. which has underperformed for 5 years (TSLA +51%, NDX +98%). It’s not that $Tesla(TSLA.US) won’t some day solve for unsupervised autonomy. It’s just that everyone else in the auto industry will as well, so TSLA’s 2026 P/E of 200x and forward PEG of 5.7x makes no sense.
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Watching $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls on X is like watching a table of college students at a bar whooping it up as they down Tequila shots. As my wife observing them recently said to me: “They think they’re doing something.”
And so it is with $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls. Despite no evidence the new Cybercab can drive itself flawlessly without safety monitors, bulls are again whooping it up as if TSLA has alone solved for unsupervised autonomy and the Cybercab now drives itself at 99.999% efficacy (1 critical disengagement per 10,000 miles). I fully believe TSLA will be one of the first to solve for generalized (go anywhere) unsupervised autonomy, but so will others ($Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Baidu(BIDU.US), $Amazon(AMZN.US), $WeRide(WRD.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)).As anyone with an X account can clearly see from the videos where autonomous Teslas still require supervision and disengagement, until @elonmusk puts on the road Cybercabs without safety monitors and scales it to cities not already mapped out TSLA stock will remain moribund as it has been for the past five years ($Tesla(TSLA.US) +51%, NDX +98%) despite bulls cheering it on every chance they get.
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U.S. stocks rose (SPX +0.2%, NDX +0.6%) as tech advanced after Anthropic’s 2Q revenue jumped 14-fold from the same period in 2025, reinforcing sustained AI spending. 10yr treasury yields and oil edged lower while Bitcoin, gold, and silver gained. September Fed hike odds fell to 30% amid last week’s weak retail sales data. Korean chipmakers and U.S. tech hardware rose pre-mkt on surging AI demand. S&P 2026 EPS estimates reached $362 (+30% YoY), implying a 21.6x forward P/E matching the 10-year yield for the first time since early 2024, and before that the 2000 internet bubble. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining forward earnings estimates, intensifying autonomous competition, and an elevated valuation.
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I rarely see $Tesla(TSLA.US) bulls on X posting on whether TSLA is cheap or expensive. It seems that since they love the products and leadership team they don’t care about the valuation. But at a 2026 P/E of 200x and long-term expected growth of +35%, it will be hard for an investor buying today to make money at TSLA’s current valuation (5.7x PEG; avg Mag 8 stock 2.4x PEG). For those who say valuation doesn’t matter, remember this basic rule of investing: Loving the product doesn’t mean you should love the stock.
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$Uber Tech(UBER.US) Stock Looks Cheap.
Here's Why. By Andrew Bary 08/14/2026 - Barron'sRobo-taxis make up just 1% of U.S. rides. But the disruption threat of autonomous vehicles to Uber Technologies has become an obsession on Wall Street -- and has depressed the value of the company's stock. Investors, however, seem to be overreacting to the robo risk -- and an apparent fraying in Uber's relationship with Waymo, the leader in autonomous vehicles. The fact is that Uber remains dominant in ride-hailing, is the market leader in food delivery, and has an autonomous-vehicle strategy that doesn't rely on Alphabet's Waymo. Uber's stock, now trading around $76, looks appealing at nearly its lowest valuation since going public in 2019. "Valuation is increasingly disconnected from its fundamentals," wrote investor Bill Ackman last week in an investor letter, noting that the company's earnings are expected to rise 35% this year. Uber is one of Ackman's largest holdings. His firm, Pershing Square, owned over $2 billion of Uber on March 31. The stock is down 7% year to date, and up 69% since its initial public offering at $45 a share. That's way below the returns on the S&P 500 index and technology leaders like Apple,
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I fully expect $SpaceX(SPCX.US) to make an all-equity offer at a healthy premium to acquire $Tesla(TSLA.US) sometime this year. It makes Elon’s life easier, and there are clearly shared synergies. My point: Many $Tesla(TSLA.US) shareholders will sell on any deal announcement rather than wait the 6-12 months for any deal to close. And most will not have to fortitude to stomach the approximate 50% SPCX dilution and watching the value of the SPCX equity to be delivered for their TSLA shares decline prior to any deal close.
It shouldn’t be lost on anyone how poorly $Tesla(TSLA.US) shares have performed YTD (TSLA -24% vs NDX +19%) despite high odds of this deal occurring.
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I fully expect $SpaceX(SPCX.US) to make an all-equity offer acquire $Tesla(TSLA.US) sometime this year. It makes Elon’s life easier, and there are clearly shared synergies. My point: Many $Tesla(TSLA.US) shareholders will sell on any deal announcement rather than wait the 6-12 months for any deal to close. And most will not have to fortitude to stomach the approximate 50% SPCX dilution and watching the value of the SPCX equity to be delivered for their TSLA shares decline prior to any deal close.
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US stocks were mixed pre-market after soft July consumer inflation data supported a Fed hold at next month’s Fed meeting, offset by Iran/Hormuz deal doubts; 10year treasury yields and oil fell. AI spending enthusiasm lifted South Korean stocks into a technical bull market after last month’s plunge. S&P 2026 EPS estimates are now +30% y/y on strong AI/energy spending, with S&P earning yields now matching 10yr Treasury yields for the first time since early 2024 and before that the 2000 internet bubble. I remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) amid declining short- and long-term earnings estimates, TSLA’s lack of progress in scaling its unsupervised autonomous fleet, and a rich valuation.
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US stocks hovered near records ahead of July CPI data, with Fed rate-hike odds easing after weak payrolls. Oil rose on unresolved Strait of Hormuz tensions as Trump favored economic pressure on Iran over strikes. Long duration equities advanced, TSMC posted strong sales, and S&P FY’2026 EPS estimates continued to rise (now +30% YoY to $361, P/E 21.4x) on higher AI investment, though overall valuations offer no equity risk premium versus 10-year treasuries. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) amid declining long-term earnings estimates, increasing autonomous-vehicle competition, and TSLA’s extended valuation.