The US economy is powering on and now the markets must figure out if that is going to support them going forward. Inflation figures will be key.
US markets are closed today for Labor Day, so let's recap Friday's session: August non-farm payrolls blew past estimates, pushing September rate-hike odds to 60%. Tesla's Cybercab officially launched ...
The market might be getting ahead of themselves and they might be starting to realise this administration will want to keep the business cycle going into elections.
Snowflake surged 16.55% on a blowout earnings beat, and Fed Governor Waller's dovish tilt sent September rate-hike odds tumbling. All three US indices closed up more than 1%. Tesla's Cybercab official...
The jobs data will probably determine the short term direction of the market. Market bulls want a tepid labour data.
Dell surged 15.8% Wednesday as its AI-server refresh story kept building. Broadcom fell despite revenue growing 86% and AI chip sales more than tripling — its guidance simply wasn't enough. A weak ADP...
$GLD SG(GSD.SG)
Context: I hold GSD as my Singapore-listed gold exposure. With much of my portfolio positioned toward higher-growth themes, I wanted part of my capital allocated to something driven by a very different set of factors.
My trade: I built the position deliberately as a long-term portfolio stabiliser. I’m not expecting gold to compete with my growth stocks during strong risk-on markets; its purpose is to provide diversification, preserve purchasing power and potentially offer support when other parts of the portfolio come under pressure.
Takeaway: Portfolio construction isn’t only about finding the highest-returning assets. It’s also about combining assets with different behaviours so I’m not dependent on a single market outcome.
@Captain's Treasure
$Broadcom(AVGO.US)
My Call: US$389
Why: Broadcom’s setup looks asymmetric into earnings: AI demand remains the key catalyst, while the recent reset leaves room for upside.
I’m expecting a solid print, constructive guidance, and a 3–8% advance rather than an outsized move.
Please take this as my vote: +3 to +8%
The vote has closed despite it being only 2nd September.
@Captain's Watch
@Captain Leo
Oil looks to be peaking. So I am not buying the narratives here. The narratives will then shift to fit the price action.
US Central Command struck Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets Tuesday; Iran retaliated against US bases in Jordan and Bahrain. Oil jumped over 5%. Dell raised its full-year revenue guide by $25 billio...
Capital is still rotating from tech outwards in a healthy fashion. Expected with the Fed chairman stating a more hawkish stance. Jobs data might be important with him reinforcing the labour data being a big factor in his decision.
Anthropic locked in a $35B cloud deal with Nvidia-backed Lambda on Sunday — its fourth mega compute deal this month. Rate-hike odds jumped again too, hitting 64-65% just one trading day after Friday's...
It looks like Warsh is hawkish but is he really? He has to look credible as data still points to inflation being sticky.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise at Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, warning inflation trends haven't "meaningfully improved" and pushing September rate-hike odds from about a third to...
Everyone is excited with Warsh’s maiden speech. He is probably going to defend rates and say that AI is deflationary and therefore there is nothing to worry.
PCE at 3.7% beat expectations unexpectedly, pushing the probability of no rate hike in September from 35% to 66%. Since Walsh took office, forward guidance has been scrapped and the dot plot abolished...
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US)
I will talk about a company in one of the important segments of the AI buildout for the fifth post of this ongoing trade showcase episode.
Much has been mentioned about energy and memory ad being critical for AI. Networking is another bottleneck and is very important for AI to scale.
The company I am talking about is in this supply chain and it provides the optic component of networking which will be crucial in the next phase of the AI buildout with NPO and CPO etc.
Technically, AAOI is in a big decade long cup pattern with price already broken out above the prior ATH of 103.5. Price is now testing these levels and a successful retest will see new ATHs. EW patterns are also leaning towards this being a third wave and the trend looks to favour the bulls.
Fundamentals and Technicals are aligning nicely so this looks like a good name to invest for the long term.
@Captain's Treasure
Interesting posture from the market as software rallies along with Nvidia. Might be the short end of software covering and selling long end high beta to cover. Good opportunity to accumulate more AI beneficiaries.
One stock added $442 billion and ten of eleven sectors still closed red. Tonight a brand new Fed chair speaks, and Singapore's factory data quietly says the AI trade is real.
$Apple(AAPL.US)
Apple is teasing with their latest Apple event scheduled Sep 10. Many are expecting the folding phone (at last!).
But this is the thing and I have said it many times. The money is flowing to AI and the consumers are being supported by the top 10% percentile. To be fair, most Apple consumers fall in this category so I guess they will still be ok. However Apple needs to stay relevant and in the forefront to avoid a Nokia scenario.
They are already dependent on others for the AI infrastructure but at least it saves them on the capital
cost. Now they need to translate those savings into the AI industry. I see some potential in the Mac minis and their appeal as Agentic AI bases. How they market their upcoming Mac lineups will be interesting as well as telling.
@Captain's Treasure
What a result by Nvidia. The result was quite comprehensive and telling that AI is here and staying around. Well done Nvidia. 👏
Nvidia's $108B guide lifted software with it, but PCE at 3.7% leaves Friday's Warsh keynote deciding the week. Singapore's quieter number: core inflation at a 21-month high of 2.0%.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)
To elaborate on my estimated guess of 225, I am
choosing that rough estimate based on technicals.
Nvidia is tricky to chart. She has a clear uptrend. However the waves are a bit tricky and can go either way.
So to make it simple, I choose the hourly 200 EMA and 200 MA as a rough guide where 200 MA is 211.8 and 200 EMA is 212.2. Initially, I choose an estimate in between which gives 212.
However, the market is liking the earnings results and price is green pre market. Hence, I cannot ignore price action and adjusting my estimates to reflect that.
😊
@Captain's Watch
Its Nvidia D-day! The fate of the tech world depends on it. Or does it? Nvidia has always outperformed such that the market needs to be wowed to be impressed.
Nvidia snapped its seven-day losing streak Tuesday, closing up 2.2% to $213.05, hours before its most anticipated earnings report in years drops after today's close. The rally came alongside a third s...
