dingdongbell

$GLD SG(GSD.SG)

Gold is showing signs of life here. It has been retreated quite a bit and the FOMO which was prevalent towards the end of last year and early this year has subsided.

As with all valuable assets, a pullback is necessary and healthy and gold will remain relevant as a storage of value with Bitcoin not very convincing as a replacement despite all the hype.

Precious metals will remain the go to still when there are doubts with the fiat monetary system.

@Captain's Treasure

The discount in AI tech stocks continue while stocks last. The same names that everyone raved about and buying when they were double the price now is being sold here.

$Apple(AAPL.US)

The capital from high betas are hiding in Apple. Once they have shaken out the weak hands and they turn risk on again, it will flow back to high betas again.

Such a big cap is very liquid and won’t move as much with big capital flows. It has institutional play written all over it.

@Captain's Treasure

I love discounts! Don’t everybody? People rush to buy things (that they can’t even sell back most of the time!) So when there is a discount of the world’s best companies that are valuable and are tradable, what do you do? 😊

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Nvidia has been doing well and holding up above its 200D MA. However, it seems to be stuck in a range while the market seems anxious waiting for more earning results coming up this week.

Looks like market is selling off into safety first.

@Captain's Treasure

The markets like to do what retail does not expect. Now you see so much FUD on main news and social media. Retail net flow is the lowest since Covid. So up it is especially tech.

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US)

You know what they say about bottlenecks. It is what holds up the progress of something. In AI, it used to be compute and chips like the GPU that Nvidia provides. They are still important but they are not the bottleneck at this point of time. Networking is one and amongst the many networking stocks in the AI sector, AAOI is one of my favourites.

@Captain's Treasure

Looks like the market is worried of inflation with good labour data and rising oil prices. Sell off first and then buy back later they like to do.

$AMD(AMD.US)

AMD is going places. She has joined Nvidia and the others in the circular financing scene with the latest Anthropic deal.

Talking about circular financing, it has been catching on such that even the Premier league teams use it to bypass regulations. Chelsea overpaid for a player from Aston Villa. Villa conveniently bought a player from Chelsea as a loan to buy and the amount offsets. Off course they term it properly so as to make it permissible.

So back to AMD, they invest in Anthropic and Anthropic buys their chips. Everyone is happy. Yay!

@Captain's Treasure

Increased capex is good actually for AI infrastructure stocks so you have to look at where the money is flowing. Big tech needs to invest to stay relevant.

$Apple(AAPL.US)

Apple has been on a streak lately as tech especially higher beta pulls back. She is considered defensive tech with less exposure to the AI infrastructure buildout and more intertwined with the consumer as opposed to enterprise.

So when economy seems to be growing, that helps support consumer spending and Apple benefits obviously. So coupled with capital looking for a safe haven to park yet stay in tech, Apple has been benefiting.

Not surprisingly, as tech rebounds, Apple stagnates. Quite telling actually as capital rotates back into more reasonably valued tech names.

@Captain's Treasure

What a rebound and rally to kick off the tech earnings. If big tech delivers on their results and shows continued infrastructure buildout, tech will fly.

$Tesla(TSLA.US)

I am cautiously bullish on Tesla heading into earnings. The company delivered 480,126 vehicles during Q2 and deployed a record 13.5 GWh of energy-storage products, giving it stronger operating momentum entering the report.

My thesis is that higher vehicle volumes and the rapidly expanding energy business can support revenue growth and improve factory utilisation. However, deliveries alone are not enough. I will be watching automotive gross margin, free cash flow and whether spending on robotaxi and AI initiatives is producing measurable progress.

Weak margins or excessive cash burn would invalidate the near-term bull case.

@Captain's Watch

$GLD SG(GSD.SG)

What is considered the world’s de facto safe asset as well as ‘go to’ reserve asset? (Sorry USD. You are not really an asset. Just a trading intermediary)

It’s none other than gold. Gold has been given value since ancient times and a gauge of wealth. Gold is what the world will trust and trade when they don’t trust the fiat system. And gold’s value has been increasing with respect to fiat.

That is why most countries have a gold reserve. Gold is physical and will be relevant. After the pullback, gold’s value is looking reasonable again compared against the fiat system.

@Captain's Treasure

Earnings are around the corner and funds that have derisked into it have done so, tech stocks looked to have bottomed and if earnings confirms AI momentum, tech will fly.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Nvidia needs no introduction. AI and Nvidia have become like synonyms. And its revenue is still growing. Its price have however stagnated and in fact has become arguably much undervalued compared to the past.

I don’t think Nvidia will go parabolic like before but it has become a more mature value like stock profile like Apple but more entwined with the AI world. Future trends like robotics and space are upcoming and Nvidia will very much be part of that so this behemoth is here to stay.

@Captain's Treasure

Apple is a defensive play for those who wants to stay in tech so tech funds hide there prior to earnings release. Once the Korean deleveraging is done and high beta is done with the much needed retreat and results confirm the AI buildout, expect capital to rotate back to high beta tech.