First Fellow — Investing Ideas, Posts & Market Views

First Fellow1 hour ago

Closed trades from the last three weeks. 82% win rate. I am not posting this so you copy the P&L. The column that matters is the note.

A lot of my trades, 21ema test and Avwap breakout. That is what I call the edge, a repeatable pattern. The green is just the result.

#Trading #Investing

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First FellowAug 30 at 06:26 PM

My thoughts on beaten down AI Picks and shovels. $Bloom Energy(BE.US) $Eaton(ETN.US) $GE Vernova(GEV.US) $Comfort Systems USA(FIX.US) $Celestica(CLS.US) $Sterling Infrastructure(STRL.US). Each one has its own level. Not one setup for all of them.

🧵

Bloom Energy

USBE

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First FellowAug 26 at 04:56 PM

Relative strength beats “the stock looks cheap.”

In a week like this, watch which names hold prior breakout supports while peers dump, reclaim VWAP first, and make higher lows while the group shakes.

That is how you find leaders before the headline catches up.

$Dell Tech(DELL.US) is a leader for holding the levels strong, while many AI names lost the levels.

Dell Tech

USDELL

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First FellowAug 26 at 01:00 AM

• Stock market rose due to lower oil prices and yields.

• Caution observed ahead of Fed inflation data and Nvidia earnings.

• $Jazz Pharma(JAZZ.US) stock bounced after FDA approved its cancer drug, Ziihera.

• $Zoom Communications(ZM.US) stock fell due to underwhelming Q2 earnings and guidance.

• $GE Vernova(GEV.US) provides solutions for AI data center power issues.

• Nasdaq shows bearish signals; $XBI is showing bullish signals..

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First FellowAug 25 at 12:56 AM

$Moderna(MRNA.US) although momentum is cooling off, the setup is still in tact and holding the mighty pink line.

Stop: 128

Target1: 175+

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First FellowAug 24 at 11:30 PM

$QQQ As it stands today, we got a failed uptrend. Index closed below an important moving average. Another day or two down, we will have 21ema below 50ma which will invalidated many bull thesis.

Don't blindly catch highly valued AI names and hope for a turn around. Not easy.

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First FellowAug 21 at 08:16 PM

What a week overall.. $Merck(MRK.US), $Cheesecake Factory(CAKE.US), $Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US), $GLD, $SLV, $Freeport Mcmoran(FCX.US), to name a few.. I have $Merck(MRK.US), but missed $Moderna(MRNA.US).

Have a happy $Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) weekend if you know what I mean.. I am talking about the trade and chart😂

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First FellowAug 17 at 01:16 PM

Market momentum is still on our side. That does not mean we buy everything at the open.

My filter for a strong trend day:

1. Index is holding its short-term averages

2. The stock is already in its own uptrend

3. It is near an entry, not 15-20% extended from the breakout or 9ema

4. Volume confirms. No weak breakouts

If it fails that list, I leave it. Most of my money comes from sitting out the junk and pressing the few names that are actually working.

I’ll post the ones that clear this during the session.

$SPY $QQQ $IWM

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First FellowAug 11 at 11:36 PM

Loved:

$Atlassian(TEAM.US) ✅

$ServiceNow(NOW.US) ✅

$Shopify (SHOP.US) ✅

$Twilio(TWLO.US) ✅

$Snowflake(SNOW.US) ✅

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) ✅

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) ✅

$Sea(SE.US) ✅

$Digital Turbine(APPS.US) ✅

$Five9(FIVN.US) ✅

Yet to be loved:

$Workday(WDAY.US)⏳

$Salesforce(CRM.US) ⏳

$Adobe(ADBE.US) ⏳

$Intuit(INTU.US)⏳

$Oracle(ORCL.US) 👀

Dusted:

$HubSpot(HUBS.US) ❌

$Duolingo(DUOL.US) ❌

$Trade Desk(TTD.US) ❌

$Chegg(CHGG.US) ❌

$Upwork(UPWK.US) ❌

I must have missed a few names, add if you can think of.

Snowflake

USSNOW

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First FellowAug 10 at 10:56 PM

$NetApp(NTAP.US) met my 200 PT. This has been my Profit taking zone, removing over 75% into strength.

NetApp

USNTAP

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First FellowAug 10 at 08:36 PM

This $Liquidia Tech(LQDA.US) has the look of $Dell Tech(DELL.US) or $Hewlett Packard Enterprise(HPE.US) but sadly this is $XBI name and reports in two days.

A great look on the chart, but I will wait for ER.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise

USHPE

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First FellowAug 9 at 11:16 PM

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) Space data centers are theoretically possible but the timeline that's being given is impossible. Since we all have Internet and GPTs we should first read and understand before blindly believing what they say in earnings and on news.

The math simply does not make sense. There are roughly 14,500 active satellites in orbit today and only about 7,000 total launches in all of human history.

Deploying a one million satellite constellation would require 16,666 Starship launches. Even if SpaceX scales its record 165 missions from 2025 by ten times, deployment alone takes a decade. Starlink builds 4,000 satellites a year. A tenfold increase still means 25 years of manufacturing.

Then you hit the thermal wall. Startup Starcloud sent one Nvidia H100 to space and their radiator was too weak to run it at full power. A single H100 pulls 700 watts and needs 1.4 square meters of radiator just to stay at 60 degrees Celsius.

To scale that up, a 40 kilowatt server rack requires an 80 square meter radiator. A 100 megawatt facility would need 2,500 of those giant cooling wings.

Always read the actual engineering fundamentals before pumping stocks on the next big tech dream. This is more than a decade or two of work, not happening in 2028 or 2030.

SpaceX

USSPCX

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First FellowAug 9 at 12:26 AM

$Sea(SE.US) Look at this weekly base. If I dont see ER, I would have slapped some really big leaps on it. This stock deserves to breakout but I should also warn that they have a history of dropping 20-30% post ERs.

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First FellowAug 8 at 10:19 PM

$CloudFlare(NET.US) was wonderful! They raised the year and got paid.

$Atlassian(TEAM.US) proved cloud still works when the numbers are real.

People spent half of 2026 arguing AI kills software. The market just answered with something simpler. Show the growth or get sold.

I am long the names that print. I am done buying the category because it has “software” in the description. $ServiceNow(NOW.US) is my high conviction, followed by $Microsoft(MSFT.US), $Intuit(INTU.US) and some other names.

ServiceNow

USNOW

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First FellowAug 8 at 04:49 PM

Same earnings week. $Atlassian(TEAM.US) ripped over 30% on a cloud beat. $Trade Desk(TTD.US) got cut nearly 30% and analysts lined up to downgrade it.

This is still an execution market. Growth that converts gets capital. Growth that stalls gets crushed. AI narratives do not save a soft guide.

Saas is not one stock, every stock is being treated differently based on their execution.

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First FellowAug 7 at 10:19 PM

• Software stocks are struggling amid mixed earnings and challenges in the AI sector.

• Some companies like Atlassian and Cloudflare reported strong earnings, while others like HubSpot did not. $Atlassian(TEAM.US) $CloudFlare(NET.US)

• The Fed may consider a rate cut, influenced by job growth and inflation concerns.

• The Clarity Act, a key crypto bill, faces uncertainty and may not be voted on soon. $Coinbase(COIN.US) $Circle(CRCL.US)

• Sweetgreen's sales outlook worsened due to a lettuce-related illness, despite previous signs of recovery. $Sweetgreen(SG.US)

Coinbase

USCOIN

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First FellowAug 7 at 04:29 PM

• The Dow Jones index and Nasdaq composite ended lower, while chip firms saw gains.

• Sandisk and Western Digital stocks declined significantly. $Western Digital(WDC.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US)

• A weak July jobs report affected expectations for a September Fed rate hike.

• S&P 500 futures showed an upward trend.

• SpaceX received a stock upgrade due to its AI investments. $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

• First Solar shows strength following positive news on polysilicon.

• Several stocks, including $Apple(AAPL.US) and $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US), are favored by mutual funds.

Sandisk

USSNDK

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First FellowAug 7 at 02:56 AM

$Dave(DAVE.US) with exceptional growth, but some growing pains along the way. Lets wait for 50ma basing before we touch it again.

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First FellowAug 6 at 05:16 PM

$First Solar(FSLR.US) had to take some beating to give us what we want. Monthly breakout look is still intact.

First Solar

USFSLR

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First FellowAug 6 at 03:36 PM

$NetApp(NTAP.US) 200 break inbound.

NetApp

USNTAP

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First FellowAug 6 at 03:16 AM

$Fluence Energy(FLNC.US) ugly! Massive miss and lowered guidance.

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First FellowAug 5 at 06:26 PM

$Shopify (SHOP.US) with a monster report.

Shopify

USSHOP

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First FellowAug 5 at 05:36 AM

$Forum Energy Tech(FET.US) just showed what a real earnings gap looks like. I had such a high conviction but only added 1% into it.

- Adjusted EPS $1.16 vs ~$0.51 expected.

- About a 128% beat.

- Revenue beat too.

- Raised every full year guide metric.

- Stock ripped ~22%.

Oilfield equipment. Not an AI ticker, so might br boring to some.

Small float + monster beat = violent move. This is the kind of print that wakes up the scanners.

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First FellowAug 5 at 02:16 AM

$AMD(AMD.US) crushed the quarter in my books.

Stock still fell ~7% after hours.

- Revenue $11.54B, up 50%.

- Data center more than doubled to $6.72B.

- Q3 guide ~$13B, above estimates.

Why did it dump? Below are my reasons and I have no complaints on the crash.

- Stock was already up ~140% YTD.

- Priced for a perfection, not a clean beat.

When a name runs that far, confirmation is not enough. The market wants shock upside like we saw with $Microsoft(MSFT.US) or $Amazon(AMZN.US).

Amazon

USAMZN

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First FellowAug 4 at 06:56 PM

$Hewlett Packard Enterprise(HPE.US) That 50ma consolidation for as long as it did and now breaking out with the sector/theme.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise

USHPE