$SPY FAFO Holding the Line at the 8-EMA 1.618 Golden FIB Extension off the $630 LOW.

Trump sends in Attack, we dump below.
If not, maybe grind higher, but NEED a FULL Peace Deal or the WAR RISK Premium won't be Removed. 

$QQQ 2025 Off an April Thrust and ZBT the First Real Test of the 21 EMA was 3 Days AFTER JUNE FOMC.

2026 I would expect the same test Regardless of IRAN OIL ect as PPI/CPI is June 10th.

Testing the 21 EMA in an UPTREND is OK.
Just Depends on the Reason for Bringing it down to that level.

Profit Taking
MACRO 
Rotation
FOMC Tightening
ECT...

$NVDA Setting up a WAVE 4 PULLBACK Headed into EARNINGS 5/20. This is MACRO + OIL not AI $NVDA so if they can turn that around, $NVDA Could set up a WAVE 5 PUSH to $250 into July.

Again, need to fix MACRO OIL or it won't matter at all. 

$VIX Waking Up, But VIX Expiration is tomorrow.

We have $12T In CEO Companies in China this week.

Can they create a sense of calm and peace talks with IRAN to settle down OIL/Yields and Trade?? 

$HIMS Options Collar

As a Trader, you want to ride the Trend in the long term direction but with 140%+ Implied Volatility, that can literally be a 180 on the flip of a dime. 

Going into Earnings, I let my Calls Run since they were already explosive, but I realized the team needed to deliver on earnings. 
They did not. 

The flip side is riding puts for a week or two, as IV bleeds out and a new trend is formed. 

That's the Long/Short Collar. 

Obviously, I want the stock to go Long and Short Squeeze, but that doesn't always go your way. 

Either way, if trading, through a very High Volatility Window, carry a hedge.

$META We need to watch close, it is below the 200D SMA now and maybe starting wave 4 pull back to the 9 EMA of $653.

Keep Stops Tight or Trim If Needed

NFA Source: Jim

2025 May Analog vs May 2026 🤔
Know Your Auction Dates!!
Link Below!

Weak Auctions = NO Bueno 
This week, we saw a C+ auction, not good. 

 $TNX and long-duration yields are no longer moving ONLY on inflation data or geopolitics.

The market is now entering a MASSIVE Treasury supply window through May, June, and July.

That means:

MORE 10Y and 30Y debt issuance

MORE duration supply

MORE pressure on auctions to clear successfully!

And if demand is weak like this week!

Yields MUST rise until buyers step in.

The market’s message right now:

> “If inflation stays sticky, oil remains elevated, and deficits keep expanding… we want MORE compensation to lock money up for 10–30 years.”

Key Treasury Supply Clusters Ahead:

🗓 MAY 
• May 20 → 20Y Bond
• May 27 → 2Y FRN + 5Y Note
• May 28 → 7Y Note

🗓 JUNE 
• June 9 → 3Y Note
• June 10 → 10Y Note
• June 11 → 30Y Bond

• June 16 → 20Y Bond
• June 18 → 5Y TIPS + FRN
• June 24–25 → 2Y / 5Y / 7Y Cluster

🗓 JULY 
• Continued bill issuance + quarterly refunding pressure building

Why this matters:

Weak auctions → Higher yields required → Financial conditions tighten → Mortgage rates rise → Equities face pressure → Treasury must offer EVEN MORE yield

That’s the current Doom Loop.

And right now the market is watching:

Bid-to-cover ratios

Foreign buyer demand

Auction tails

Dealer take-downs

Oil prices

CPI/PPI inflation data

The 10Y is the benchmark growth/inflation signal.

The 30Y is the long-term confidence signal.

If auction demand stabilizes? Yields can reverse fast.

But if inflation + oil + weak demand continue?

The market may FORCE rates even higher before buyers finally step in.

For what it's worth, last year we had this spike May 13th, May 20th to 26th, then calm until mid to late July. 

#SPX #SPY #QQQ #Bonds #Treasury #Macro #Inflation #Oil #Rates #FOMC 

@Norseman1
@McClellanOsc
@market_sleuth
@Micro2Macr0
@Basssem666
@mark_ungewitter
@Bluekurtic
@itsmichaelluu
@ISABELNET_SA
@SuperLuckeee



Trump has 10-15 trading days to make some deals on oil,  tech and Chill out Iran with a truce.

Let the orange man sleep off the trip come back to the table next week well rested.

$VIX @grok analyze the tape from today, seems off for all the IRAN War stuff going on. 

$IBIT = $BTC

2027 2028 Leap to the 200D SMA IMO 
VOLUME SHELF + $BTC RAMP INTO THE NEXT HALVING CYCLE. Source: Jim

Bearish Flow Today
Nothing above 70%

APPLE Doesn't Count
It's Defensive 

$NVDA $GOOG $AAPL haven't really had a run yet, IMO. 

They are pushing higher but $NVDA $250+, $GOOG $400 $AAPL $300

If that happens we're headed higher into July. 

War Headlines ect in tow but if those 3 big Dawgs hold Court that's huge. 

What other large Cap you like to grow still?Source: Jim

$META WEEKLY @grok break this down, along with earnings dates, EPS projections, trading gain window and street price targets. Weekly 3 White Soldiers, Reclaimed the 50D SMA, EMA 9/21 Tredning towards a positive FLIP. Along with your summary, also create a visual graphic. Source: Jim

1. Buy America Equities 📊
2. OUTRIGHT SELL Japan,  EU, UK.

@grok analyze this, then create a summary and a visual graphic detailing everything. Source: Jim

$GOOG 

Using the 7-day IV fwith GOOG at $335.23, the estimated implied earnings move into 4/29 AH is about:

±$22.14, or about ±6.6%.

That gives an expected range of roughly:

Upside: $357.37
Downside: $313.09

Formula used:
 Stock Price × IV × √(Days / 365)
With your data:

Price = $335.23

7-day IV ≈ 47.7%

Time = 7 days

$GOOG earnings implied move for 4/29 AH: 
about ±$22.14 (±6.6%)

With GOOG at $335.23, options are pricing a post-earnings range of roughly $313 to $357.

$350 Previous ATH

NFASource: Jim