DiDi

Didi 1Q26 First Take: headline results were weak, with adj. EBITA under RMB 200 mn amid heavy investment.However, vs. expectations the print was better — domestic profit release far exceeded forecasts, and Intl growth was strong while losses came in slightly lower than expected (still sizable in absolute terms).

Breakdown:

1) Domestic GTV rose 10% YoY, with growth easing QoQ but slightly above Bloomberg consensus; order growth showed a similar ~1ppt QoQ deceleration, indicating steady momentum.The standout was profit release, with domestic adj. EBITA near RMB 4 bn, well above the market's ~RMB 3.5 bn.Adj. EBITA margin was 4.6% on GTV, up 60bps YoY.

Domestic platform sales grew ~22% YoY, far outpacing GTV and revenue growth of ~10%.This implies a meaningful uplift in net take rate after driver revenue share and other direct costs, rising from 20.6% to 22.8%.

2) Intl was the highlight on growth, with GTV up 59% YoY; ex-FX, +49%, accelerating by over 10ppt QoQ.Orders rose 27% YoY, with only ~2ppt acceleration and well below GTV growth.Mix shifted toward higher-ticket food delivery, lifting GTV more than orders.

Beyond solid growth, Intl adj. EBITA loss was ~RMB 2.9 bn, still large but better than the market's ~RMB 3.1 bn loss estimate and Q4's RMB 3.4 bn.In other words, loss margin narrowed alongside strong growth.

3) Overall, domestic growth was steady while Intl growth was strong; domestic profit release expanded, and Intl losses narrowed.Company revenue maintained ~10% growth.Absolute profit was still under RMB 200 mn, but vs. the market's expected RMB 500 mn loss, this was a clear beat. $DiDi(DIDIY.US)

Didi 4Q25 First Take: While the market had anticipated wider losses in overseas ops, largely due to the Brazil food-delivery push, the actual loss came in far worse than expected, and shares have already fallen nearly 40% from the peak. Domestic ops remained solid. Details below:

1) Domestic ops: GTV rose Approx. 11% YoY, with a modest QoQ acceleration driven by higher ticket size. Domestic platform monetization continued to trend up, with reported take rate (Platform sales/GTV) at 23.9% vs. 23% last quarter.

Supported by this, domestic margin (adj. EBITA/GTV) improved to 3% vs. 2.8% YoY. Profit was Approx. RMB 2.6bn (+20% YoY), slightly ahead of Street estimates. The core domestic business remains steady, with balanced growth and incremental profit release.

2) The main issue lies in overseas ops, where losses widened sharply to RMB 3.4bn vs. RMB 1.7bn last quarter and market est. of RMB 2.1bn. The market was prepared for some pain, but the reality proved tougher. Specifically, overseas GTV growth jumped to 47% YoY, well above recent quarters and Street expectations.

However, Platform sales growth slowed QoQ to only 22%, underscoring that heavy investment and subsidies meaningfully lifted volume but did not translate into platform revenue. As scale grew, losses expanded.

3) On costs, total marketing expense surged to RMB 6.25bn vs. RMB 3.2bn YoY and RMB 4.7bn last quarter, the most notable increase among all cost lines and broadly in line with the incremental overseas loss. The loss was mainly driven by stepped-up overseas customer acquisition and consumer subsidies.

4) Overall, dragged by the RMB 3.0bn overseas deficit, other innovation businesses also posted a higher year-end loss of RMB 1.29bn, roughly in line with 4Q24's RMB 1.15bn, and the group swung to a net loss of RMB 0.8bn this quarter. Overspending remains a recurring issue for some China ADRs. $DiDi(DIDIY.US)

Didi 3Q25 Quick Interpretation: In early November, Didi updated the market with guidance on its 3Q performance, mainly mentioning two issues:

1. The investment in the food delivery business in Brazil (to gain a first-mover advantage over Meitu Keeta) will lead to a significant expansion of losses in overseas business; 2. The guidance also indicated that domestic subsidies and other investments would be concentrated in the second half of the year, resulting in a decline in the domestic business's adj. EBITA profit margin compared to the high point in the first half.

As this unfavorable guidance was digested by the market, Didi's stock price subsequently retreated by nearly 20%. The actual performance this quarter was largely in line with the previous guidance, with Bloomberg's consensus expectations being somewhat high due to untimely updates, while major banks have made corresponding adjustments. Therefore, overall, Didi's performance this season was expectedly poor.

Specifically:

1) In terms of core growth indicators, the domestic travel segment's GTV grew by approximately 10% year-on-year, slightly slowing down by about 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter.

The domestic business growth remains generally stable and largely in line with expectations. Meanwhile, the GTV growth rate of overseas business significantly increased to 31%, reflecting that the overseas investment indeed accelerated business growth, and it was notably higher than Bloomberg's consensus expectations.

2) In terms of profit, the domestic business adj. EBITA profit was 2.98 billion, slightly higher than the November guidance of 2.7-2.8 billion. However, the trend shows that this quarter's profit margin fell significantly from over 4% in the first two quarters of this year (based on GTV) to 3.5% this quarter, indicating a considerable decline.

Dolphin Research preliminarily judges that this is more due to the drag of weakening overall domestic ride-hailing demand (macro factors), while Didi's competitive landscape remains stable or further improved.

3) The overseas business's loss this quarter expanded significantly to nearly 1.8 billion, with the loss rate doubling quarter-on-quarter to 5.6%, which is generally in line with the updated expectations of major banks. As mentioned earlier, this is mainly due to the impact of investment in Brazil's food delivery. $DiDi(DIDIY.US)

Didi 2Q25 Quick Interpretation: Overall, Didi delivered a decent performance this quarter. Driven by slightly better-than-expected domestic order volume and a continued rise in net monetization rate, total revenue slightly exceeded expectations, with profit performance being more impressive. Specifically:

1) Domestic order volume grew by 12.4%, slightly exceeding expectations and accelerating slightly quarter-on-quarter, driving GTV growth to be roughly in line with order volume.

However, platform sales surged by 24% year-on-year, significantly outpacing GTV growth, indicating that Didi's domestic net monetization continued to rise this quarter.

As a result, the proportion of domestic business adj. EBITDA to GTV increased by 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 4.4%, with final profit margin at 36.2%, nearly 10% higher than market expectations.

2) International order volume growth remained flat quarter-on-quarter at 24.9%, still decent, but market expectations were higher (Didi restarted its food delivery business in Brazil, which the market might have anticipated).

It seems that international GTV underperformed order volume growth, but this was due to adverse exchange rate effects. At constant exchange rates, GTV growth was as high as 27.8%.

However, Didi's international business losses significantly expanded this quarter, reaching 750 million. But the market had anticipated this, so the expectation gap was not large.

The company explained that this was mainly due to increased subsidies in overseas business. The restart of the Brazilian food delivery business should also have an impact.

3) Additionally, it is worth noting that due to a one-time charge of approximately 5.3 billion related to previous shareholder litigation, GAAP profit turned negative this quarter. However, such impacts should be ignored, and attention should be paid to adjusted profits. $DiDi(DIDIY.US)

Didi 1Q25 Quick Interpretation: Didi's financial performance this time is generally in line with expectations in terms of growth, while the profit release is quite impressive, both in terms of expectation gap and trend.

1) On the growth side, whether it's core operational indicators like GTV and order volume, or financial indicators like revenue, they are largely in line with expectations, showing stability. The GTV and revenue growth of domestic business remain stable at a high single-digit level.

2) The main highlight is the profit. This quarter, the adjusted EBITA of Didi's China mobility business exceeded 3.1 billion (a record high), 12% higher than expected. The loss of overseas business was less than 200 million, far below the sell-side expectation of a 450 million loss.

In terms of trend, the issues from last quarter—declining domestic business profit and significantly expanding overseas business losses—have both reversed this quarter. The market's response is likely to be positive.

The reason for the profit exceeding expectations is mainly due to the domestic business platform's retained revenue, which increased by 20% YoY despite GTV growth being less than 10%. This indicates an increase in the platform's overall monetization rate. $DiDi(DIDIY.US)

(Note: Since Didi is in the OTA market, there are not many sell-side analysts tracking it, so the market may not have a fully consistent expectation. However, based on this performance, the sell-side expectations were relatively accurate.)