0429 ｜Dolphin Watchlist

🐬 Macro / Sector

1. The Fed holds its policy meeting in Washington this week, with the decision due Wed 2:00pm ET (Thu 2:00am Beijing time). Markets will focus on the rate call, the statement, and guidance on the path of cuts. With the U.S. economy and inflation still resilient, consensus expects rates to be kept on hold.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$NIO-SW(09866.HK) $NIO Inc(NIO.US)

Nio's ONVO brand launched pre-sales for its intelligent dual-cabin, five-seat flagship SUV, the ONVO L80, with a starting price of RMB 245,800. Leveraging Nio's battery-swap network and its smart cockpit and AD tech, the model targets the mid-to-high-end family SUV segment. Pricing lands squarely in the core mass-market NEV range, pairing Nio's mature energy-replenishment ecosystem with a differentiated dual-cabin product. It rounds out Nio's brand portfolio and, with strong value-for-money, could take share in its class, likely becoming ONVO's volume driver and strengthening Nio's full-market coverage.

2. Earnings and calls on our radar. See below.

• BYD: See:《BYD: Overseas surge can't fully plug the domestic hole》.
• Coca-Cola:《Zero-sugar momentum and AI-driven opex discipline power outperformance》.《Coca-Cola (Trans): Balanced growth in volume and price this year》.
• Spotify:《Spotify: Miss vs. expectations triggers a slump as streaming loses its shine》.《Spotify (Trans): No abnormal churn post price hikes; GPM sees new investment noise》.
• Focus Media:《Focus Media: Recovery fits-and-starts; high payout remains resilient》.《Focus Media (Trans): In the AI era's info deluge, offline spaces' certainty stands out》.
• Earnings tonight from Luckin Coffee, Geely, HKEX, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, and Eastroc Beverage. Results due this evening.

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A-shares: Furniture/home improvement/renovation retailers, water & soft drinks, copper. HK: Electronic equipment & services, agricultural machinery, investment services & holding companies. U.S.: Marine ports/operators, managed care, tobacco.

🐬 Watch for Tomorrow

1. Google, Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, and China Tourism Duty Free will report. Key mega-cap prints to watch.

2. U.S.: Fed rate decision (upper bound) for the period to Apr 29. Also due are Mar personal spending MoM; Mar core PCE price index MoM and YoY; Q1 ECI QoQ; Q1 real GDP SAAR (advance); Q1 real personal consumption expenditures SAAR (advance); and Q1 core PCE price index SAAR (advance). These releases will shape rate-cut expectations.

3. China: Apr official manufacturing PMI and RatingDog manufacturing PMI. Both gauge momentum in the industrial cycle.

Risk disclosure and statement for this article: Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure